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Aantal niet-werkende werkzoekenden exponential smoothing

*Unverified author*
R Software Module: /rwasp_exponentialsmoothing.wasp (opens new window with default values)
Title produced by software: Exponential Smoothing
Date of computation: Sun, 02 Jan 2011 15:47:21 +0000
 
Cite this page as follows:
Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2011/Jan/02/t12939831295n17194aay37qyf.htm/, Retrieved Sun, 02 Jan 2011 16:45:29 +0100
 
BibTeX entries for LaTeX users:
@Manual{KEY,
    author = {{YOUR NAME}},
    publisher = {Office for Research Development and Education},
    title = {Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2011/Jan/02/t12939831295n17194aay37qyf.htm/},
    year = {2011},
}
@Manual{R,
    title = {R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing},
    author = {{R Development Core Team}},
    organization = {R Foundation for Statistical Computing},
    address = {Vienna, Austria},
    year = {2011},
    note = {{ISBN} 3-900051-07-0},
    url = {http://www.R-project.org},
}
 
Original text written by user:
 
IsPrivate?
No (this computation is public)
 
User-defined keywords:
KDGP2W102
 
Dataseries X:
» Textbox « » Textfile « » CSV «
180144 173666 165688 161570 156145 153730 182698 200765 176512 166618 158644 159585 163095 159044 155511 153745 150569 150605 179612 194690 189917 184128 175335 179566 181140 177876 175041 169292 166070 166972 206348 215706 202108 195411 193111 195198 198770 194163 190420 189733 186029 191531 232571 243477 227247 217859 208679 213188 216234 213586 209465 204045 200237 203666 241476 260307 243324 244460 233575 237217 235243 230354 227184 221678 217142 219452 256446 265845 248624 241114 229245 231805 219277 219313 212610 214771 211142 211457 240048 240636 230580 208795 197922 194596 194581 185686 178106 172608 167302 168053 202300 202388 182516 173476 166444 171297 169701 164182 161914 159612 151001 158114 186530 187069 174330 169362 166827 178037 186413 189226 191563 188906 186005 195309 223532 226899 214126 206903 204442 220375
 
Output produced by software:


Summary of computational transaction
Raw Inputview raw input (R code)
Raw Outputview raw output of R engine
Computing time2 seconds
R Server'Sir Ronald Aylmer Fisher' @ 193.190.124.24


Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing
ParameterValue
alpha1
beta0
gammaFALSE


Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing
tObservedFittedResiduals
3165688173666-7978
4161570165688-4118
5156145161570-5425
6153730156145-2415
718269815373028968
820076518269818067
9176512200765-24253
10166618176512-9894
11158644166618-7974
12159585158644941
131630951595853510
14159044163095-4051
15155511159044-3533
16153745155511-1766
17150569153745-3176
1815060515056936
1917961215060529007
2019469017961215078
21189917194690-4773
22184128189917-5789
23175335184128-8793
241795661753354231
251811401795661574
26177876181140-3264
27175041177876-2835
28169292175041-5749
29166070169292-3222
30166972166070902
3120634816697239376
322157062063489358
33202108215706-13598
34195411202108-6697
35193111195411-2300
361951981931112087
371987701951983572
38194163198770-4607
39190420194163-3743
40189733190420-687
41186029189733-3704
421915311860295502
4323257119153141040
4424347723257110906
45227247243477-16230
46217859227247-9388
47208679217859-9180
482131882086794509
492162342131883046
50213586216234-2648
51209465213586-4121
52204045209465-5420
53200237204045-3808
542036662002373429
5524147620366637810
5626030724147618831
57243324260307-16983
582444602433241136
59233575244460-10885
602372172335753642
61235243237217-1974
62230354235243-4889
63227184230354-3170
64221678227184-5506
65217142221678-4536
662194522171422310
6725644621945236994
682658452564469399
69248624265845-17221
70241114248624-7510
71229245241114-11869
722318052292452560
73219277231805-12528
7421931321927736
75212610219313-6703
762147712126102161
77211142214771-3629
78211457211142315
7924004821145728591
80240636240048588
81230580240636-10056
82208795230580-21785
83197922208795-10873
84194596197922-3326
85194581194596-15
86185686194581-8895
87178106185686-7580
88172608178106-5498
89167302172608-5306
90168053167302751
9120230016805334247
9220238820230088
93182516202388-19872
94173476182516-9040
95166444173476-7032
961712971664444853
97169701171297-1596
98164182169701-5519
99161914164182-2268
100159612161914-2302
101151001159612-8611
1021581141510017113
10318653015811428416
104187069186530539
105174330187069-12739
106169362174330-4968
107166827169362-2535
10817803716682711210
1091864131780378376
1101892261864132813
1111915631892262337
112188906191563-2657
113186005188906-2901
1141953091860059304
11522353219530928223
1162268992235323367
117214126226899-12773
118206903214126-7223
119204442206903-2461
12022037520444215933


Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing
tForecast95% Lower Bound95% Upper Bound
121220375195827.339684944244922.660315056
122220375185659.365857920255090.63414208
123220375177857.205127381262892.794872619
124220375171279.679369888269470.320630112
125220375165484.762846961275265.237153039
126220375160245.757848945280504.242151055
127220375155427.995537873285322.004462127
128220375150943.731715840289806.268284160
129220375146732.019054832294017.980945168
130220375142748.482176297298001.517823703
131220375138959.621253862301790.378746138
132220375135339.410254762305410.589745238
 
Charts produced by software:
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2011/Jan/02/t12939831295n17194aay37qyf/15zwk1293983237.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2011/Jan/02/t12939831295n17194aay37qyf/15zwk1293983237.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2011/Jan/02/t12939831295n17194aay37qyf/2behe1293983237.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2011/Jan/02/t12939831295n17194aay37qyf/2behe1293983237.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2011/Jan/02/t12939831295n17194aay37qyf/3wod01293983237.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2011/Jan/02/t12939831295n17194aay37qyf/3wod01293983237.ps (open in new window)


 
Parameters (Session):
par1 = 12 ; par2 = Double ; par3 = multiplicative ;
 
Parameters (R input):
par1 = 12 ; par2 = Double ; par3 = multiplicative ;
 
R code (references can be found in the software module):
par1 <- as.numeric(par1)
if (par2 == 'Single') K <- 1
if (par2 == 'Double') K <- 2
if (par2 == 'Triple') K <- par1
nx <- length(x)
nxmK <- nx - K
x <- ts(x, frequency = par1)
if (par2 == 'Single') fit <- HoltWinters(x, gamma=F, beta=F)
if (par2 == 'Double') fit <- HoltWinters(x, gamma=F)
if (par2 == 'Triple') fit <- HoltWinters(x, seasonal=par3)
fit
myresid <- x - fit$fitted[,'xhat']
bitmap(file='test1.png')
op <- par(mfrow=c(2,1))
plot(fit,ylab='Observed (black) / Fitted (red)',main='Interpolation Fit of Exponential Smoothing')
plot(myresid,ylab='Residuals',main='Interpolation Prediction Errors')
par(op)
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test2.png')
p <- predict(fit, par1, prediction.interval=TRUE)
np <- length(p[,1])
plot(fit,p,ylab='Observed (black) / Fitted (red)',main='Extrapolation Fit of Exponential Smoothing')
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test3.png')
op <- par(mfrow = c(2,2))
acf(as.numeric(myresid),lag.max = nx/2,main='Residual ACF')
spectrum(myresid,main='Residals Periodogram')
cpgram(myresid,main='Residal Cumulative Periodogram')
qqnorm(myresid,main='Residual Normal QQ Plot')
qqline(myresid)
par(op)
dev.off()
load(file='createtable')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing',2,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Parameter',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'alpha',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,fit$alpha)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'beta',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,fit$beta)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'gamma',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,fit$gamma)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'t',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Observed',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Fitted',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Residuals',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:nxmK) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,i+K,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,x[i+K])
a<-table.element(a,fit$fitted[i,'xhat'])
a<-table.element(a,myresid[i])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable1.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'t',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Forecast',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'95% Lower Bound',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'95% Upper Bound',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:np) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,nx+i,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,p[i,'fit'])
a<-table.element(a,p[i,'lwr'])
a<-table.element(a,p[i,'upr'])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable2.tab')
 




Copyright

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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0 License.

Software written by Ed van Stee & Patrick Wessa


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