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Author's title

Author*The author of this computation has been verified*
R Software Modulerwasp_structuraltimeseries.wasp
Title produced by softwareStructural Time Series Models
Date of computationThu, 01 Dec 2011 10:56:19 -0500
Cite this page as followsStatistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, Office for Research Development and Education, URL https://freestatistics.org/blog/index.php?v=date/2011/Dec/01/t1322754988v2howtl6br3fgyh.htm/, Retrieved Thu, 28 Mar 2024 16:43:45 +0000
Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, Office for Research Development and Education, URL https://freestatistics.org/blog/index.php?pk=149837, Retrieved Thu, 28 Mar 2024 16:43:45 +0000
QR Codes:

Original text written by user:
IsPrivate?No (this computation is public)
User-defined keywords
Estimated Impact45
Family? (F = Feedback message, R = changed R code, M = changed R Module, P = changed Parameters, D = changed Data)
F     [Univariate Data Series] [HPC Retail Sales] [2008-03-02 15:42:48] [74be16979710d4c4e7c6647856088456]
- RMPD  [Structural Time Series Models] [HPC Retail Sales] [2008-03-06 16:52:55] [74be16979710d4c4e7c6647856088456]
- R  D    [Structural Time Series Models] [HPC Retail Sales] [2008-03-08 11:33:35] [74be16979710d4c4e7c6647856088456]
- RM D      [Structural Time Series Models] [] [2011-11-26 20:12:04] [ee8c3a74bf3b349877806e9a50913c60]
-    D          [Structural Time Series Models] [] [2011-12-01 15:56:19] [7dc03dd48c8acabd98b217fada4a6bc0] [Current]
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Dataseries X:
274
291
280
258
252
251
224
225
234
233
229
208
224
226
223
205
201
202
183
188
200
206
211
201
299
244
251
241
244
252
234
246
265
277
287
275
320
338
342
322
323
343
315
334
359
362
378
345
422
430
443
431
425
432
387
396
411
421
424
410
464
486
490
459
454
446
406
412
428
429
425
396
429
439
424
379
370
353
322
322
338
348
350
312
358
378
352
312
310
292
276
269
286
292
288
255
304
299
293
275
272
264
234
231
263
264
264
245
297
317
318
315
312
310
306
313
350
354
371
357
419
425
424
399
393
378
371
364
384
377
383
352




Summary of computational transaction
Raw Inputview raw input (R code)
Raw Outputview raw output of R engine
Computing time3 seconds
R Server'AstonUniversity' @ aston.wessa.net

\begin{tabular}{lllllllll}
\hline
Summary of computational transaction \tabularnewline
Raw Input & view raw input (R code)  \tabularnewline
Raw Output & view raw output of R engine  \tabularnewline
Computing time & 3 seconds \tabularnewline
R Server & 'AstonUniversity' @ aston.wessa.net \tabularnewline
\hline
\end{tabular}
%Source: https://freestatistics.org/blog/index.php?pk=149837&T=0

[TABLE]
[ROW][C]Summary of computational transaction[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]Raw Input[/C][C]view raw input (R code) [/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]Raw Output[/C][C]view raw output of R engine [/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]Computing time[/C][C]3 seconds[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]R Server[/C][C]'AstonUniversity' @ aston.wessa.net[/C][/ROW]
[/TABLE]
Source: https://freestatistics.org/blog/index.php?pk=149837&T=0

Globally Unique Identifier (entire table): ba.freestatistics.org/blog/index.php?pk=149837&T=0

As an alternative you can also use a QR Code:  

The GUIDs for individual cells are displayed in the table below:

Summary of computational transaction
Raw Inputview raw input (R code)
Raw Outputview raw output of R engine
Computing time3 seconds
R Server'AstonUniversity' @ aston.wessa.net







Structural Time Series Model
tObservedLevelSlopeSeasonalStand. Residuals
1274274000
2291287.4328028852760.8074371049135673.567197114724211.03222557030103
3280283.7453482799410.439638145208687-3.74534827994052-0.43852219689922
4258266.907017459355-1.19695133687673-8.90701745935493-1.857322676084
5252254.392282156557-2.44606383291734-2.39228215655746-1.19447407108349
6251249.70348028354-2.728106731032481.29651971645962-0.232141474212305
7224231.647758223384-4.8462559457749-7.64775822338392-1.56627357572074
8225223.54017993529-5.326278721041761.45982006471047-0.330232370712103
9234228.107739453355-3.8085118351695.892260546644550.995210649276812
10233231.277420606651-2.708349779253751.722579393349450.698587150120013
11229229.720047284146-2.52354617541797-0.7200472841463760.114834022687537
12208214.66307215771-4.5608031483925-6.66307215770983-1.24749880454103
13224219.409184768269-3.11721113204354.59081523173070.992243087668788
14226219.058328685216-2.664658794371836.941671314784290.268319342067694
15223219.58121835784-2.145456844285323.418781642160140.296268192931675
16205213.609239594907-2.76877595982789-8.60923959490664-0.372201922496364
17201205.096406188113-3.70934795919469-4.09640618811269-0.564076859017462
18202196.657406708023-4.485366283716455.34259329197744-0.461945286114112
19183190.160582184327-4.81551231340373-7.1605821843265-0.196056309134044
20188188.460962515954-4.3038872025858-0.4609625159540260.30386474859368
21200192.610910867702-2.914963931465417.389089132297750.825137535056588
22206199.738093459406-1.264503209383346.26190654059370.980427218722805
23211205.558118383982-0.1010950019122975.441881616017860.690752575417517
24201210.1190209611220.662126043834845-9.119020961121670.45493834606083
25299263.0929660791949.2122849077662735.9070339208065.21500434291356
26244255.7177094861486.48889704732773-11.7177094861476-1.62146662613245
27251250.3993712044284.561404933222970.600628795572335-1.12475962605963
28241249.377384237493.6524213382661-8.37738423748976-0.538857594369786
29244248.4147684129052.89875634549839-4.41476841290467-0.45020488676716
30252247.6053080110962.291683121345314.39469198890435-0.36118438961572
31234245.0763106606551.50221224965203-11.0763106606548-0.468151747749867
32246248.2653936092211.77837748437813-2.26539360922090.163699747615717
33265257.3101849435912.967715935019147.689815056408770.705309888714906
34277269.629580102124.49774083305537.370419897880340.90745503025113
35287284.0100643473286.112829698098722.989935652671560.958567167886612
36275299.4557899021637.63613678255327-24.45578990216290.908649805912402
37320289.1415817827884.7034163699353230.8584182172124-1.76112374273773
38338323.8546058540199.6132292546262314.1453941459812.91956990678893
39342339.66808159577810.62467782367562.331918404221860.595440851286267
40322336.9402130595878.4517674846495-14.9402130595871-1.28690129471487
41323331.6970932162476.2206562977348-8.69709321624668-1.33012458175039
42343335.827269705065.879424716979537.17273029494034-0.203264038654521
43315332.3251310602664.3469500846352-17.3251310602664-0.91010260399983
44334337.6213343608754.50198218353463-3.621334360874930.0919258188343577
45359350.6160559333825.888383581850598.383944066617770.821773220683462
46362358.6891755704126.244792255401723.310824429587510.21130629472197
47378372.7143201872637.51294015208755.285679812737070.753097178306774
48345371.8239349976376.14364525584092-26.8239349976374-0.816386036542823
49422393.416798479058.6637179377125128.58320152094971.50559394375245
50430412.86206732195910.423556893205917.13793267804071.04549283001325
51443430.9691544893311.675641832825912.03084551066990.739745722273374
52431441.79800825145311.5378962271717-10.7980082514531-0.0815991184873577
53425439.9112717980549.35358841204139-14.9112717980538-1.30024253198712
54432430.6211661300846.316142926203831.3788338699165-1.80934956051069
55387415.6688908347222.84837781087609-28.6688908347219-2.06122588493676
56396406.9145549623360.956680126796457-10.9145549623363-1.12214806495126
57411404.0788071463970.3386932584015336.92119285360307-0.366267065278945
58421413.4170631502591.804124648442037.582936849741160.868849580851793
59424416.8709790280432.072604309784727.129020971957220.159488988885772
60410434.9152222852324.67203085735433-24.91522228523221.54856752250608
61464442.0148009509575.0674638466664621.98519904904290.235698147287371
62486463.2367219179947.6998974603627322.7632780820061.56327678354072
63490476.1365176295648.5463589266298313.86348237043640.500983373116209
64459471.4657339510246.39752659752625-12.4657339510239-1.2735518667901
65454465.1662325508024.33338765680635-11.1662325508016-1.22757058587299
66446446.7875829292120.637975838782526-0.787582929211654-2.20028638579683
67406434.243533780619-1.50831679769074-28.2435337806186-1.27612578314967
68412424.842719801959-2.7934024670814-12.8427198019589-0.762571112066417
69428422.965432560385-2.644312145056125.03456743961460.0883766430129391
70429422.345351397537-2.315107458308646.654648602463010.195222560054412
71425423.187589292224-1.801833910017741.81241070777570.304930803357099
72396423.34740432171-1.48286612587377-27.34740432171010.189880642435153
73429417.508570785313-2.1916319288216711.4914292146874-0.421928861937346
74439416.293585207406-2.0326836431132422.70641479259350.0943790046689716
75424407.733988417499-3.0941884116898316.2660115825011-0.628899395330282
76379391.201396552518-5.27777093329485-12.2013965525185-1.29471424829565
77370375.216809069822-7.01722914818593-5.21680906982245-1.03390715567465
78353354.525453341899-9.24001474818212-1.52545334189951-1.32274771447964
79322345.354544063387-9.22877503188226-23.35454406338670.00668262858034908
80322335.852828919216-9.27317024149296-13.8528289192156-0.0263506348675376
81338331.432160028316-8.484221722830446.567839971684010.467796382619199
82348335.972040723786-6.3678975650153112.0279592762141.25530247955334
83350342.792922132751-4.22543511078877.20707786724861.27276248247971
84312339.300806131591-4.10628221503161-27.30080613159080.070888704487983
85358342.139691063795-2.977221273344815.86030893620470.671618811234938
86378347.246930778424-1.6627416188610730.75306922157570.78047639128755
87352335.78261578859-3.2556344063202216.2173842114104-0.944344467002496
88312322.673359466395-4.85593989141436-10.6733594663945-0.949206633277343
89310311.722936972871-5.84556709402469-1.72293697287125-0.588020341205026
90292297.525712576037-7.20222952731585-5.52571257603733-0.806929091337926
91276295.486411259976-6.36318176686498-19.48641125997550.498776173296626
92269287.827986898634-6.57369122937522-18.827986898634-0.124967640727022
93286284.174548520559-6.099238884972821.825451479441080.281403292697679
94292283.058621601915-5.289975395199828.94137839808480.480123923839732
95288280.950914406905-4.773300033838927.049085593095140.306913636687977
96255282.601040996199-3.73017299649242-27.60104099619890.620302593880625
97304286.557762017516-2.4813819708561417.44223798248410.742469641027235
98299271.601092721432-4.5083091937644827.3989072785679-1.20350298865185
99293268.995772955852-4.1992272953182924.00422704414840.183321078957897
100275275.91256091162-2.39463259400012-0.9125609116204061.07067280099488
101272272.681914418048-2.5303327242481-0.681914418047932-0.0806135442357105
102264270.762105680249-2.43120800637844-6.762105680248710.058934252607669
103234258.930985584306-3.95789160300449-24.9309855843061-0.907359690940783
104231252.002109818232-4.4404546982212-21.0021098182317-0.286500640072709
105263257.377969928099-2.846454921561575.622030071900680.945671888691617
106264257.007872642546-2.444481895351896.99212735745380.238530682998919
107264258.19316733266-1.855372056025645.806832667339670.349911205950084
108245267.8466996372940.0128221078660347-22.84669963729431.11052764222348
109297273.1528042249560.87230921192540323.84719577504430.510833244360967
110317285.356623224842.7123951201655831.64337677516041.09258450505742
111318295.4390679560283.9088963221535922.56093204397160.709888545241819
112315309.8868852076225.619257563395765.11311479237851.01497675247636
113312313.9018752514695.3589324019084-1.901875251469-0.154626265990753
114310314.8123367734354.63694753837112-4.81233677343512-0.429115874764199
115306325.9462634013945.69167077606982-19.94626340139360.626737156239106
116313336.1346353934166.4217095944688-23.13463539341550.43345706195233
117350344.7811497487016.782835281714285.21885025129890.214292141061037
118354350.4066146628886.59502493553023.59338533711189-0.111464265742162
119371365.2259551177267.929457506823065.774044882273640.7925497577111
120357380.0929814679059.05525186116426-23.0929814679050.669029797540139
121419396.8362430770110.303094347708522.163756922990.741469771918955
122425401.6138695256239.406198397571223.3861304743765-0.532558106796099
123424406.9324899903628.7428192536151817.0675100096379-0.393675612252491
124399400.9825990360556.35892413600397-1.98259903605458-1.41489598819608
125393397.6389908031864.78483646566386-4.63899080318645-0.934879559211607
126378391.3806361667072.99302228182281-13.3806361667069-1.0647146671912
127371392.6438092234112.71229263612709-21.6438092234112-0.166787813811233
128364390.7668316597951.96748466959512-26.766831659795-0.442244266657881
129384384.1259597485390.57060850916614-0.125959748538955-0.829050721544136
130377379.815913948851-0.221210412002045-2.81591394885131-0.469998669465639
131383380.260933756528-0.1131331665039692.739066243472060.0641858388623255
132352378.892247837771-0.316830734107288-26.892247837771-0.121026722917093

\begin{tabular}{lllllllll}
\hline
Structural Time Series Model \tabularnewline
t & Observed & Level & Slope & Seasonal & Stand. Residuals \tabularnewline
1 & 274 & 274 & 0 & 0 & 0 \tabularnewline
2 & 291 & 287.432802885276 & 0.807437104913567 & 3.56719711472421 & 1.03222557030103 \tabularnewline
3 & 280 & 283.745348279941 & 0.439638145208687 & -3.74534827994052 & -0.43852219689922 \tabularnewline
4 & 258 & 266.907017459355 & -1.19695133687673 & -8.90701745935493 & -1.857322676084 \tabularnewline
5 & 252 & 254.392282156557 & -2.44606383291734 & -2.39228215655746 & -1.19447407108349 \tabularnewline
6 & 251 & 249.70348028354 & -2.72810673103248 & 1.29651971645962 & -0.232141474212305 \tabularnewline
7 & 224 & 231.647758223384 & -4.8462559457749 & -7.64775822338392 & -1.56627357572074 \tabularnewline
8 & 225 & 223.54017993529 & -5.32627872104176 & 1.45982006471047 & -0.330232370712103 \tabularnewline
9 & 234 & 228.107739453355 & -3.808511835169 & 5.89226054664455 & 0.995210649276812 \tabularnewline
10 & 233 & 231.277420606651 & -2.70834977925375 & 1.72257939334945 & 0.698587150120013 \tabularnewline
11 & 229 & 229.720047284146 & -2.52354617541797 & -0.720047284146376 & 0.114834022687537 \tabularnewline
12 & 208 & 214.66307215771 & -4.5608031483925 & -6.66307215770983 & -1.24749880454103 \tabularnewline
13 & 224 & 219.409184768269 & -3.1172111320435 & 4.5908152317307 & 0.992243087668788 \tabularnewline
14 & 226 & 219.058328685216 & -2.66465879437183 & 6.94167131478429 & 0.268319342067694 \tabularnewline
15 & 223 & 219.58121835784 & -2.14545684428532 & 3.41878164216014 & 0.296268192931675 \tabularnewline
16 & 205 & 213.609239594907 & -2.76877595982789 & -8.60923959490664 & -0.372201922496364 \tabularnewline
17 & 201 & 205.096406188113 & -3.70934795919469 & -4.09640618811269 & -0.564076859017462 \tabularnewline
18 & 202 & 196.657406708023 & -4.48536628371645 & 5.34259329197744 & -0.461945286114112 \tabularnewline
19 & 183 & 190.160582184327 & -4.81551231340373 & -7.1605821843265 & -0.196056309134044 \tabularnewline
20 & 188 & 188.460962515954 & -4.3038872025858 & -0.460962515954026 & 0.30386474859368 \tabularnewline
21 & 200 & 192.610910867702 & -2.91496393146541 & 7.38908913229775 & 0.825137535056588 \tabularnewline
22 & 206 & 199.738093459406 & -1.26450320938334 & 6.2619065405937 & 0.980427218722805 \tabularnewline
23 & 211 & 205.558118383982 & -0.101095001912297 & 5.44188161601786 & 0.690752575417517 \tabularnewline
24 & 201 & 210.119020961122 & 0.662126043834845 & -9.11902096112167 & 0.45493834606083 \tabularnewline
25 & 299 & 263.092966079194 & 9.21228490776627 & 35.907033920806 & 5.21500434291356 \tabularnewline
26 & 244 & 255.717709486148 & 6.48889704732773 & -11.7177094861476 & -1.62146662613245 \tabularnewline
27 & 251 & 250.399371204428 & 4.56140493322297 & 0.600628795572335 & -1.12475962605963 \tabularnewline
28 & 241 & 249.37738423749 & 3.6524213382661 & -8.37738423748976 & -0.538857594369786 \tabularnewline
29 & 244 & 248.414768412905 & 2.89875634549839 & -4.41476841290467 & -0.45020488676716 \tabularnewline
30 & 252 & 247.605308011096 & 2.29168312134531 & 4.39469198890435 & -0.36118438961572 \tabularnewline
31 & 234 & 245.076310660655 & 1.50221224965203 & -11.0763106606548 & -0.468151747749867 \tabularnewline
32 & 246 & 248.265393609221 & 1.77837748437813 & -2.2653936092209 & 0.163699747615717 \tabularnewline
33 & 265 & 257.310184943591 & 2.96771593501914 & 7.68981505640877 & 0.705309888714906 \tabularnewline
34 & 277 & 269.62958010212 & 4.4977408330553 & 7.37041989788034 & 0.90745503025113 \tabularnewline
35 & 287 & 284.010064347328 & 6.11282969809872 & 2.98993565267156 & 0.958567167886612 \tabularnewline
36 & 275 & 299.455789902163 & 7.63613678255327 & -24.4557899021629 & 0.908649805912402 \tabularnewline
37 & 320 & 289.141581782788 & 4.70341636993532 & 30.8584182172124 & -1.76112374273773 \tabularnewline
38 & 338 & 323.854605854019 & 9.61322925462623 & 14.145394145981 & 2.91956990678893 \tabularnewline
39 & 342 & 339.668081595778 & 10.6246778236756 & 2.33191840422186 & 0.595440851286267 \tabularnewline
40 & 322 & 336.940213059587 & 8.4517674846495 & -14.9402130595871 & -1.28690129471487 \tabularnewline
41 & 323 & 331.697093216247 & 6.2206562977348 & -8.69709321624668 & -1.33012458175039 \tabularnewline
42 & 343 & 335.82726970506 & 5.87942471697953 & 7.17273029494034 & -0.203264038654521 \tabularnewline
43 & 315 & 332.325131060266 & 4.3469500846352 & -17.3251310602664 & -0.91010260399983 \tabularnewline
44 & 334 & 337.621334360875 & 4.50198218353463 & -3.62133436087493 & 0.0919258188343577 \tabularnewline
45 & 359 & 350.616055933382 & 5.88838358185059 & 8.38394406661777 & 0.821773220683462 \tabularnewline
46 & 362 & 358.689175570412 & 6.24479225540172 & 3.31082442958751 & 0.21130629472197 \tabularnewline
47 & 378 & 372.714320187263 & 7.5129401520875 & 5.28567981273707 & 0.753097178306774 \tabularnewline
48 & 345 & 371.823934997637 & 6.14364525584092 & -26.8239349976374 & -0.816386036542823 \tabularnewline
49 & 422 & 393.41679847905 & 8.66371793771251 & 28.5832015209497 & 1.50559394375245 \tabularnewline
50 & 430 & 412.862067321959 & 10.4235568932059 & 17.1379326780407 & 1.04549283001325 \tabularnewline
51 & 443 & 430.96915448933 & 11.6756418328259 & 12.0308455106699 & 0.739745722273374 \tabularnewline
52 & 431 & 441.798008251453 & 11.5378962271717 & -10.7980082514531 & -0.0815991184873577 \tabularnewline
53 & 425 & 439.911271798054 & 9.35358841204139 & -14.9112717980538 & -1.30024253198712 \tabularnewline
54 & 432 & 430.621166130084 & 6.31614292620383 & 1.3788338699165 & -1.80934956051069 \tabularnewline
55 & 387 & 415.668890834722 & 2.84837781087609 & -28.6688908347219 & -2.06122588493676 \tabularnewline
56 & 396 & 406.914554962336 & 0.956680126796457 & -10.9145549623363 & -1.12214806495126 \tabularnewline
57 & 411 & 404.078807146397 & 0.338693258401533 & 6.92119285360307 & -0.366267065278945 \tabularnewline
58 & 421 & 413.417063150259 & 1.80412464844203 & 7.58293684974116 & 0.868849580851793 \tabularnewline
59 & 424 & 416.870979028043 & 2.07260430978472 & 7.12902097195722 & 0.159488988885772 \tabularnewline
60 & 410 & 434.915222285232 & 4.67203085735433 & -24.9152222852322 & 1.54856752250608 \tabularnewline
61 & 464 & 442.014800950957 & 5.06746384666646 & 21.9851990490429 & 0.235698147287371 \tabularnewline
62 & 486 & 463.236721917994 & 7.69989746036273 & 22.763278082006 & 1.56327678354072 \tabularnewline
63 & 490 & 476.136517629564 & 8.54635892662983 & 13.8634823704364 & 0.500983373116209 \tabularnewline
64 & 459 & 471.465733951024 & 6.39752659752625 & -12.4657339510239 & -1.2735518667901 \tabularnewline
65 & 454 & 465.166232550802 & 4.33338765680635 & -11.1662325508016 & -1.22757058587299 \tabularnewline
66 & 446 & 446.787582929212 & 0.637975838782526 & -0.787582929211654 & -2.20028638579683 \tabularnewline
67 & 406 & 434.243533780619 & -1.50831679769074 & -28.2435337806186 & -1.27612578314967 \tabularnewline
68 & 412 & 424.842719801959 & -2.7934024670814 & -12.8427198019589 & -0.762571112066417 \tabularnewline
69 & 428 & 422.965432560385 & -2.64431214505612 & 5.0345674396146 & 0.0883766430129391 \tabularnewline
70 & 429 & 422.345351397537 & -2.31510745830864 & 6.65464860246301 & 0.195222560054412 \tabularnewline
71 & 425 & 423.187589292224 & -1.80183391001774 & 1.8124107077757 & 0.304930803357099 \tabularnewline
72 & 396 & 423.34740432171 & -1.48286612587377 & -27.3474043217101 & 0.189880642435153 \tabularnewline
73 & 429 & 417.508570785313 & -2.19163192882167 & 11.4914292146874 & -0.421928861937346 \tabularnewline
74 & 439 & 416.293585207406 & -2.03268364311324 & 22.7064147925935 & 0.0943790046689716 \tabularnewline
75 & 424 & 407.733988417499 & -3.09418841168983 & 16.2660115825011 & -0.628899395330282 \tabularnewline
76 & 379 & 391.201396552518 & -5.27777093329485 & -12.2013965525185 & -1.29471424829565 \tabularnewline
77 & 370 & 375.216809069822 & -7.01722914818593 & -5.21680906982245 & -1.03390715567465 \tabularnewline
78 & 353 & 354.525453341899 & -9.24001474818212 & -1.52545334189951 & -1.32274771447964 \tabularnewline
79 & 322 & 345.354544063387 & -9.22877503188226 & -23.3545440633867 & 0.00668262858034908 \tabularnewline
80 & 322 & 335.852828919216 & -9.27317024149296 & -13.8528289192156 & -0.0263506348675376 \tabularnewline
81 & 338 & 331.432160028316 & -8.48422172283044 & 6.56783997168401 & 0.467796382619199 \tabularnewline
82 & 348 & 335.972040723786 & -6.36789756501531 & 12.027959276214 & 1.25530247955334 \tabularnewline
83 & 350 & 342.792922132751 & -4.2254351107887 & 7.2070778672486 & 1.27276248247971 \tabularnewline
84 & 312 & 339.300806131591 & -4.10628221503161 & -27.3008061315908 & 0.070888704487983 \tabularnewline
85 & 358 & 342.139691063795 & -2.9772212733448 & 15.8603089362047 & 0.671618811234938 \tabularnewline
86 & 378 & 347.246930778424 & -1.66274161886107 & 30.7530692215757 & 0.78047639128755 \tabularnewline
87 & 352 & 335.78261578859 & -3.25563440632022 & 16.2173842114104 & -0.944344467002496 \tabularnewline
88 & 312 & 322.673359466395 & -4.85593989141436 & -10.6733594663945 & -0.949206633277343 \tabularnewline
89 & 310 & 311.722936972871 & -5.84556709402469 & -1.72293697287125 & -0.588020341205026 \tabularnewline
90 & 292 & 297.525712576037 & -7.20222952731585 & -5.52571257603733 & -0.806929091337926 \tabularnewline
91 & 276 & 295.486411259976 & -6.36318176686498 & -19.4864112599755 & 0.498776173296626 \tabularnewline
92 & 269 & 287.827986898634 & -6.57369122937522 & -18.827986898634 & -0.124967640727022 \tabularnewline
93 & 286 & 284.174548520559 & -6.09923888497282 & 1.82545147944108 & 0.281403292697679 \tabularnewline
94 & 292 & 283.058621601915 & -5.28997539519982 & 8.9413783980848 & 0.480123923839732 \tabularnewline
95 & 288 & 280.950914406905 & -4.77330003383892 & 7.04908559309514 & 0.306913636687977 \tabularnewline
96 & 255 & 282.601040996199 & -3.73017299649242 & -27.6010409961989 & 0.620302593880625 \tabularnewline
97 & 304 & 286.557762017516 & -2.48138197085614 & 17.4422379824841 & 0.742469641027235 \tabularnewline
98 & 299 & 271.601092721432 & -4.50830919376448 & 27.3989072785679 & -1.20350298865185 \tabularnewline
99 & 293 & 268.995772955852 & -4.19922729531829 & 24.0042270441484 & 0.183321078957897 \tabularnewline
100 & 275 & 275.91256091162 & -2.39463259400012 & -0.912560911620406 & 1.07067280099488 \tabularnewline
101 & 272 & 272.681914418048 & -2.5303327242481 & -0.681914418047932 & -0.0806135442357105 \tabularnewline
102 & 264 & 270.762105680249 & -2.43120800637844 & -6.76210568024871 & 0.058934252607669 \tabularnewline
103 & 234 & 258.930985584306 & -3.95789160300449 & -24.9309855843061 & -0.907359690940783 \tabularnewline
104 & 231 & 252.002109818232 & -4.4404546982212 & -21.0021098182317 & -0.286500640072709 \tabularnewline
105 & 263 & 257.377969928099 & -2.84645492156157 & 5.62203007190068 & 0.945671888691617 \tabularnewline
106 & 264 & 257.007872642546 & -2.44448189535189 & 6.9921273574538 & 0.238530682998919 \tabularnewline
107 & 264 & 258.19316733266 & -1.85537205602564 & 5.80683266733967 & 0.349911205950084 \tabularnewline
108 & 245 & 267.846699637294 & 0.0128221078660347 & -22.8466996372943 & 1.11052764222348 \tabularnewline
109 & 297 & 273.152804224956 & 0.872309211925403 & 23.8471957750443 & 0.510833244360967 \tabularnewline
110 & 317 & 285.35662322484 & 2.71239512016558 & 31.6433767751604 & 1.09258450505742 \tabularnewline
111 & 318 & 295.439067956028 & 3.90889632215359 & 22.5609320439716 & 0.709888545241819 \tabularnewline
112 & 315 & 309.886885207622 & 5.61925756339576 & 5.1131147923785 & 1.01497675247636 \tabularnewline
113 & 312 & 313.901875251469 & 5.3589324019084 & -1.901875251469 & -0.154626265990753 \tabularnewline
114 & 310 & 314.812336773435 & 4.63694753837112 & -4.81233677343512 & -0.429115874764199 \tabularnewline
115 & 306 & 325.946263401394 & 5.69167077606982 & -19.9462634013936 & 0.626737156239106 \tabularnewline
116 & 313 & 336.134635393416 & 6.4217095944688 & -23.1346353934155 & 0.43345706195233 \tabularnewline
117 & 350 & 344.781149748701 & 6.78283528171428 & 5.2188502512989 & 0.214292141061037 \tabularnewline
118 & 354 & 350.406614662888 & 6.5950249355302 & 3.59338533711189 & -0.111464265742162 \tabularnewline
119 & 371 & 365.225955117726 & 7.92945750682306 & 5.77404488227364 & 0.7925497577111 \tabularnewline
120 & 357 & 380.092981467905 & 9.05525186116426 & -23.092981467905 & 0.669029797540139 \tabularnewline
121 & 419 & 396.83624307701 & 10.3030943477085 & 22.16375692299 & 0.741469771918955 \tabularnewline
122 & 425 & 401.613869525623 & 9.4061983975712 & 23.3861304743765 & -0.532558106796099 \tabularnewline
123 & 424 & 406.932489990362 & 8.74281925361518 & 17.0675100096379 & -0.393675612252491 \tabularnewline
124 & 399 & 400.982599036055 & 6.35892413600397 & -1.98259903605458 & -1.41489598819608 \tabularnewline
125 & 393 & 397.638990803186 & 4.78483646566386 & -4.63899080318645 & -0.934879559211607 \tabularnewline
126 & 378 & 391.380636166707 & 2.99302228182281 & -13.3806361667069 & -1.0647146671912 \tabularnewline
127 & 371 & 392.643809223411 & 2.71229263612709 & -21.6438092234112 & -0.166787813811233 \tabularnewline
128 & 364 & 390.766831659795 & 1.96748466959512 & -26.766831659795 & -0.442244266657881 \tabularnewline
129 & 384 & 384.125959748539 & 0.57060850916614 & -0.125959748538955 & -0.829050721544136 \tabularnewline
130 & 377 & 379.815913948851 & -0.221210412002045 & -2.81591394885131 & -0.469998669465639 \tabularnewline
131 & 383 & 380.260933756528 & -0.113133166503969 & 2.73906624347206 & 0.0641858388623255 \tabularnewline
132 & 352 & 378.892247837771 & -0.316830734107288 & -26.892247837771 & -0.121026722917093 \tabularnewline
\hline
\end{tabular}
%Source: https://freestatistics.org/blog/index.php?pk=149837&T=1

[TABLE]
[ROW][C]Structural Time Series Model[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]t[/C][C]Observed[/C][C]Level[/C][C]Slope[/C][C]Seasonal[/C][C]Stand. Residuals[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]1[/C][C]274[/C][C]274[/C][C]0[/C][C]0[/C][C]0[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]2[/C][C]291[/C][C]287.432802885276[/C][C]0.807437104913567[/C][C]3.56719711472421[/C][C]1.03222557030103[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]3[/C][C]280[/C][C]283.745348279941[/C][C]0.439638145208687[/C][C]-3.74534827994052[/C][C]-0.43852219689922[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]4[/C][C]258[/C][C]266.907017459355[/C][C]-1.19695133687673[/C][C]-8.90701745935493[/C][C]-1.857322676084[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]5[/C][C]252[/C][C]254.392282156557[/C][C]-2.44606383291734[/C][C]-2.39228215655746[/C][C]-1.19447407108349[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]6[/C][C]251[/C][C]249.70348028354[/C][C]-2.72810673103248[/C][C]1.29651971645962[/C][C]-0.232141474212305[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]7[/C][C]224[/C][C]231.647758223384[/C][C]-4.8462559457749[/C][C]-7.64775822338392[/C][C]-1.56627357572074[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]8[/C][C]225[/C][C]223.54017993529[/C][C]-5.32627872104176[/C][C]1.45982006471047[/C][C]-0.330232370712103[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]9[/C][C]234[/C][C]228.107739453355[/C][C]-3.808511835169[/C][C]5.89226054664455[/C][C]0.995210649276812[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]10[/C][C]233[/C][C]231.277420606651[/C][C]-2.70834977925375[/C][C]1.72257939334945[/C][C]0.698587150120013[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]11[/C][C]229[/C][C]229.720047284146[/C][C]-2.52354617541797[/C][C]-0.720047284146376[/C][C]0.114834022687537[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]12[/C][C]208[/C][C]214.66307215771[/C][C]-4.5608031483925[/C][C]-6.66307215770983[/C][C]-1.24749880454103[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]13[/C][C]224[/C][C]219.409184768269[/C][C]-3.1172111320435[/C][C]4.5908152317307[/C][C]0.992243087668788[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]14[/C][C]226[/C][C]219.058328685216[/C][C]-2.66465879437183[/C][C]6.94167131478429[/C][C]0.268319342067694[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]15[/C][C]223[/C][C]219.58121835784[/C][C]-2.14545684428532[/C][C]3.41878164216014[/C][C]0.296268192931675[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]16[/C][C]205[/C][C]213.609239594907[/C][C]-2.76877595982789[/C][C]-8.60923959490664[/C][C]-0.372201922496364[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]17[/C][C]201[/C][C]205.096406188113[/C][C]-3.70934795919469[/C][C]-4.09640618811269[/C][C]-0.564076859017462[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]18[/C][C]202[/C][C]196.657406708023[/C][C]-4.48536628371645[/C][C]5.34259329197744[/C][C]-0.461945286114112[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]19[/C][C]183[/C][C]190.160582184327[/C][C]-4.81551231340373[/C][C]-7.1605821843265[/C][C]-0.196056309134044[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]20[/C][C]188[/C][C]188.460962515954[/C][C]-4.3038872025858[/C][C]-0.460962515954026[/C][C]0.30386474859368[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]21[/C][C]200[/C][C]192.610910867702[/C][C]-2.91496393146541[/C][C]7.38908913229775[/C][C]0.825137535056588[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]22[/C][C]206[/C][C]199.738093459406[/C][C]-1.26450320938334[/C][C]6.2619065405937[/C][C]0.980427218722805[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]23[/C][C]211[/C][C]205.558118383982[/C][C]-0.101095001912297[/C][C]5.44188161601786[/C][C]0.690752575417517[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]24[/C][C]201[/C][C]210.119020961122[/C][C]0.662126043834845[/C][C]-9.11902096112167[/C][C]0.45493834606083[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]25[/C][C]299[/C][C]263.092966079194[/C][C]9.21228490776627[/C][C]35.907033920806[/C][C]5.21500434291356[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]26[/C][C]244[/C][C]255.717709486148[/C][C]6.48889704732773[/C][C]-11.7177094861476[/C][C]-1.62146662613245[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]27[/C][C]251[/C][C]250.399371204428[/C][C]4.56140493322297[/C][C]0.600628795572335[/C][C]-1.12475962605963[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]28[/C][C]241[/C][C]249.37738423749[/C][C]3.6524213382661[/C][C]-8.37738423748976[/C][C]-0.538857594369786[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]29[/C][C]244[/C][C]248.414768412905[/C][C]2.89875634549839[/C][C]-4.41476841290467[/C][C]-0.45020488676716[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]30[/C][C]252[/C][C]247.605308011096[/C][C]2.29168312134531[/C][C]4.39469198890435[/C][C]-0.36118438961572[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]31[/C][C]234[/C][C]245.076310660655[/C][C]1.50221224965203[/C][C]-11.0763106606548[/C][C]-0.468151747749867[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]32[/C][C]246[/C][C]248.265393609221[/C][C]1.77837748437813[/C][C]-2.2653936092209[/C][C]0.163699747615717[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]33[/C][C]265[/C][C]257.310184943591[/C][C]2.96771593501914[/C][C]7.68981505640877[/C][C]0.705309888714906[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]34[/C][C]277[/C][C]269.62958010212[/C][C]4.4977408330553[/C][C]7.37041989788034[/C][C]0.90745503025113[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]35[/C][C]287[/C][C]284.010064347328[/C][C]6.11282969809872[/C][C]2.98993565267156[/C][C]0.958567167886612[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]36[/C][C]275[/C][C]299.455789902163[/C][C]7.63613678255327[/C][C]-24.4557899021629[/C][C]0.908649805912402[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]37[/C][C]320[/C][C]289.141581782788[/C][C]4.70341636993532[/C][C]30.8584182172124[/C][C]-1.76112374273773[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]38[/C][C]338[/C][C]323.854605854019[/C][C]9.61322925462623[/C][C]14.145394145981[/C][C]2.91956990678893[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]39[/C][C]342[/C][C]339.668081595778[/C][C]10.6246778236756[/C][C]2.33191840422186[/C][C]0.595440851286267[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]40[/C][C]322[/C][C]336.940213059587[/C][C]8.4517674846495[/C][C]-14.9402130595871[/C][C]-1.28690129471487[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]41[/C][C]323[/C][C]331.697093216247[/C][C]6.2206562977348[/C][C]-8.69709321624668[/C][C]-1.33012458175039[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]42[/C][C]343[/C][C]335.82726970506[/C][C]5.87942471697953[/C][C]7.17273029494034[/C][C]-0.203264038654521[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]43[/C][C]315[/C][C]332.325131060266[/C][C]4.3469500846352[/C][C]-17.3251310602664[/C][C]-0.91010260399983[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]44[/C][C]334[/C][C]337.621334360875[/C][C]4.50198218353463[/C][C]-3.62133436087493[/C][C]0.0919258188343577[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]45[/C][C]359[/C][C]350.616055933382[/C][C]5.88838358185059[/C][C]8.38394406661777[/C][C]0.821773220683462[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]46[/C][C]362[/C][C]358.689175570412[/C][C]6.24479225540172[/C][C]3.31082442958751[/C][C]0.21130629472197[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]47[/C][C]378[/C][C]372.714320187263[/C][C]7.5129401520875[/C][C]5.28567981273707[/C][C]0.753097178306774[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]48[/C][C]345[/C][C]371.823934997637[/C][C]6.14364525584092[/C][C]-26.8239349976374[/C][C]-0.816386036542823[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]49[/C][C]422[/C][C]393.41679847905[/C][C]8.66371793771251[/C][C]28.5832015209497[/C][C]1.50559394375245[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]50[/C][C]430[/C][C]412.862067321959[/C][C]10.4235568932059[/C][C]17.1379326780407[/C][C]1.04549283001325[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]51[/C][C]443[/C][C]430.96915448933[/C][C]11.6756418328259[/C][C]12.0308455106699[/C][C]0.739745722273374[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]52[/C][C]431[/C][C]441.798008251453[/C][C]11.5378962271717[/C][C]-10.7980082514531[/C][C]-0.0815991184873577[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]53[/C][C]425[/C][C]439.911271798054[/C][C]9.35358841204139[/C][C]-14.9112717980538[/C][C]-1.30024253198712[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]54[/C][C]432[/C][C]430.621166130084[/C][C]6.31614292620383[/C][C]1.3788338699165[/C][C]-1.80934956051069[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]55[/C][C]387[/C][C]415.668890834722[/C][C]2.84837781087609[/C][C]-28.6688908347219[/C][C]-2.06122588493676[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]56[/C][C]396[/C][C]406.914554962336[/C][C]0.956680126796457[/C][C]-10.9145549623363[/C][C]-1.12214806495126[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]57[/C][C]411[/C][C]404.078807146397[/C][C]0.338693258401533[/C][C]6.92119285360307[/C][C]-0.366267065278945[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]58[/C][C]421[/C][C]413.417063150259[/C][C]1.80412464844203[/C][C]7.58293684974116[/C][C]0.868849580851793[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]59[/C][C]424[/C][C]416.870979028043[/C][C]2.07260430978472[/C][C]7.12902097195722[/C][C]0.159488988885772[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]60[/C][C]410[/C][C]434.915222285232[/C][C]4.67203085735433[/C][C]-24.9152222852322[/C][C]1.54856752250608[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]61[/C][C]464[/C][C]442.014800950957[/C][C]5.06746384666646[/C][C]21.9851990490429[/C][C]0.235698147287371[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]62[/C][C]486[/C][C]463.236721917994[/C][C]7.69989746036273[/C][C]22.763278082006[/C][C]1.56327678354072[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]63[/C][C]490[/C][C]476.136517629564[/C][C]8.54635892662983[/C][C]13.8634823704364[/C][C]0.500983373116209[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]64[/C][C]459[/C][C]471.465733951024[/C][C]6.39752659752625[/C][C]-12.4657339510239[/C][C]-1.2735518667901[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]65[/C][C]454[/C][C]465.166232550802[/C][C]4.33338765680635[/C][C]-11.1662325508016[/C][C]-1.22757058587299[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]66[/C][C]446[/C][C]446.787582929212[/C][C]0.637975838782526[/C][C]-0.787582929211654[/C][C]-2.20028638579683[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]67[/C][C]406[/C][C]434.243533780619[/C][C]-1.50831679769074[/C][C]-28.2435337806186[/C][C]-1.27612578314967[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]68[/C][C]412[/C][C]424.842719801959[/C][C]-2.7934024670814[/C][C]-12.8427198019589[/C][C]-0.762571112066417[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]69[/C][C]428[/C][C]422.965432560385[/C][C]-2.64431214505612[/C][C]5.0345674396146[/C][C]0.0883766430129391[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]70[/C][C]429[/C][C]422.345351397537[/C][C]-2.31510745830864[/C][C]6.65464860246301[/C][C]0.195222560054412[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]71[/C][C]425[/C][C]423.187589292224[/C][C]-1.80183391001774[/C][C]1.8124107077757[/C][C]0.304930803357099[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]72[/C][C]396[/C][C]423.34740432171[/C][C]-1.48286612587377[/C][C]-27.3474043217101[/C][C]0.189880642435153[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]73[/C][C]429[/C][C]417.508570785313[/C][C]-2.19163192882167[/C][C]11.4914292146874[/C][C]-0.421928861937346[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]74[/C][C]439[/C][C]416.293585207406[/C][C]-2.03268364311324[/C][C]22.7064147925935[/C][C]0.0943790046689716[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]75[/C][C]424[/C][C]407.733988417499[/C][C]-3.09418841168983[/C][C]16.2660115825011[/C][C]-0.628899395330282[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]76[/C][C]379[/C][C]391.201396552518[/C][C]-5.27777093329485[/C][C]-12.2013965525185[/C][C]-1.29471424829565[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]77[/C][C]370[/C][C]375.216809069822[/C][C]-7.01722914818593[/C][C]-5.21680906982245[/C][C]-1.03390715567465[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]78[/C][C]353[/C][C]354.525453341899[/C][C]-9.24001474818212[/C][C]-1.52545334189951[/C][C]-1.32274771447964[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]79[/C][C]322[/C][C]345.354544063387[/C][C]-9.22877503188226[/C][C]-23.3545440633867[/C][C]0.00668262858034908[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]80[/C][C]322[/C][C]335.852828919216[/C][C]-9.27317024149296[/C][C]-13.8528289192156[/C][C]-0.0263506348675376[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]81[/C][C]338[/C][C]331.432160028316[/C][C]-8.48422172283044[/C][C]6.56783997168401[/C][C]0.467796382619199[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]82[/C][C]348[/C][C]335.972040723786[/C][C]-6.36789756501531[/C][C]12.027959276214[/C][C]1.25530247955334[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]83[/C][C]350[/C][C]342.792922132751[/C][C]-4.2254351107887[/C][C]7.2070778672486[/C][C]1.27276248247971[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]84[/C][C]312[/C][C]339.300806131591[/C][C]-4.10628221503161[/C][C]-27.3008061315908[/C][C]0.070888704487983[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]85[/C][C]358[/C][C]342.139691063795[/C][C]-2.9772212733448[/C][C]15.8603089362047[/C][C]0.671618811234938[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]86[/C][C]378[/C][C]347.246930778424[/C][C]-1.66274161886107[/C][C]30.7530692215757[/C][C]0.78047639128755[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]87[/C][C]352[/C][C]335.78261578859[/C][C]-3.25563440632022[/C][C]16.2173842114104[/C][C]-0.944344467002496[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]88[/C][C]312[/C][C]322.673359466395[/C][C]-4.85593989141436[/C][C]-10.6733594663945[/C][C]-0.949206633277343[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]89[/C][C]310[/C][C]311.722936972871[/C][C]-5.84556709402469[/C][C]-1.72293697287125[/C][C]-0.588020341205026[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]90[/C][C]292[/C][C]297.525712576037[/C][C]-7.20222952731585[/C][C]-5.52571257603733[/C][C]-0.806929091337926[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]91[/C][C]276[/C][C]295.486411259976[/C][C]-6.36318176686498[/C][C]-19.4864112599755[/C][C]0.498776173296626[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]92[/C][C]269[/C][C]287.827986898634[/C][C]-6.57369122937522[/C][C]-18.827986898634[/C][C]-0.124967640727022[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]93[/C][C]286[/C][C]284.174548520559[/C][C]-6.09923888497282[/C][C]1.82545147944108[/C][C]0.281403292697679[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]94[/C][C]292[/C][C]283.058621601915[/C][C]-5.28997539519982[/C][C]8.9413783980848[/C][C]0.480123923839732[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]95[/C][C]288[/C][C]280.950914406905[/C][C]-4.77330003383892[/C][C]7.04908559309514[/C][C]0.306913636687977[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]96[/C][C]255[/C][C]282.601040996199[/C][C]-3.73017299649242[/C][C]-27.6010409961989[/C][C]0.620302593880625[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]97[/C][C]304[/C][C]286.557762017516[/C][C]-2.48138197085614[/C][C]17.4422379824841[/C][C]0.742469641027235[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]98[/C][C]299[/C][C]271.601092721432[/C][C]-4.50830919376448[/C][C]27.3989072785679[/C][C]-1.20350298865185[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]99[/C][C]293[/C][C]268.995772955852[/C][C]-4.19922729531829[/C][C]24.0042270441484[/C][C]0.183321078957897[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]100[/C][C]275[/C][C]275.91256091162[/C][C]-2.39463259400012[/C][C]-0.912560911620406[/C][C]1.07067280099488[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]101[/C][C]272[/C][C]272.681914418048[/C][C]-2.5303327242481[/C][C]-0.681914418047932[/C][C]-0.0806135442357105[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]102[/C][C]264[/C][C]270.762105680249[/C][C]-2.43120800637844[/C][C]-6.76210568024871[/C][C]0.058934252607669[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]103[/C][C]234[/C][C]258.930985584306[/C][C]-3.95789160300449[/C][C]-24.9309855843061[/C][C]-0.907359690940783[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]104[/C][C]231[/C][C]252.002109818232[/C][C]-4.4404546982212[/C][C]-21.0021098182317[/C][C]-0.286500640072709[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]105[/C][C]263[/C][C]257.377969928099[/C][C]-2.84645492156157[/C][C]5.62203007190068[/C][C]0.945671888691617[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]106[/C][C]264[/C][C]257.007872642546[/C][C]-2.44448189535189[/C][C]6.9921273574538[/C][C]0.238530682998919[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]107[/C][C]264[/C][C]258.19316733266[/C][C]-1.85537205602564[/C][C]5.80683266733967[/C][C]0.349911205950084[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]108[/C][C]245[/C][C]267.846699637294[/C][C]0.0128221078660347[/C][C]-22.8466996372943[/C][C]1.11052764222348[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]109[/C][C]297[/C][C]273.152804224956[/C][C]0.872309211925403[/C][C]23.8471957750443[/C][C]0.510833244360967[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]110[/C][C]317[/C][C]285.35662322484[/C][C]2.71239512016558[/C][C]31.6433767751604[/C][C]1.09258450505742[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]111[/C][C]318[/C][C]295.439067956028[/C][C]3.90889632215359[/C][C]22.5609320439716[/C][C]0.709888545241819[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]112[/C][C]315[/C][C]309.886885207622[/C][C]5.61925756339576[/C][C]5.1131147923785[/C][C]1.01497675247636[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]113[/C][C]312[/C][C]313.901875251469[/C][C]5.3589324019084[/C][C]-1.901875251469[/C][C]-0.154626265990753[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]114[/C][C]310[/C][C]314.812336773435[/C][C]4.63694753837112[/C][C]-4.81233677343512[/C][C]-0.429115874764199[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]115[/C][C]306[/C][C]325.946263401394[/C][C]5.69167077606982[/C][C]-19.9462634013936[/C][C]0.626737156239106[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]116[/C][C]313[/C][C]336.134635393416[/C][C]6.4217095944688[/C][C]-23.1346353934155[/C][C]0.43345706195233[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]117[/C][C]350[/C][C]344.781149748701[/C][C]6.78283528171428[/C][C]5.2188502512989[/C][C]0.214292141061037[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]118[/C][C]354[/C][C]350.406614662888[/C][C]6.5950249355302[/C][C]3.59338533711189[/C][C]-0.111464265742162[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]119[/C][C]371[/C][C]365.225955117726[/C][C]7.92945750682306[/C][C]5.77404488227364[/C][C]0.7925497577111[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]120[/C][C]357[/C][C]380.092981467905[/C][C]9.05525186116426[/C][C]-23.092981467905[/C][C]0.669029797540139[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]121[/C][C]419[/C][C]396.83624307701[/C][C]10.3030943477085[/C][C]22.16375692299[/C][C]0.741469771918955[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]122[/C][C]425[/C][C]401.613869525623[/C][C]9.4061983975712[/C][C]23.3861304743765[/C][C]-0.532558106796099[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]123[/C][C]424[/C][C]406.932489990362[/C][C]8.74281925361518[/C][C]17.0675100096379[/C][C]-0.393675612252491[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]124[/C][C]399[/C][C]400.982599036055[/C][C]6.35892413600397[/C][C]-1.98259903605458[/C][C]-1.41489598819608[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]125[/C][C]393[/C][C]397.638990803186[/C][C]4.78483646566386[/C][C]-4.63899080318645[/C][C]-0.934879559211607[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]126[/C][C]378[/C][C]391.380636166707[/C][C]2.99302228182281[/C][C]-13.3806361667069[/C][C]-1.0647146671912[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]127[/C][C]371[/C][C]392.643809223411[/C][C]2.71229263612709[/C][C]-21.6438092234112[/C][C]-0.166787813811233[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]128[/C][C]364[/C][C]390.766831659795[/C][C]1.96748466959512[/C][C]-26.766831659795[/C][C]-0.442244266657881[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]129[/C][C]384[/C][C]384.125959748539[/C][C]0.57060850916614[/C][C]-0.125959748538955[/C][C]-0.829050721544136[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]130[/C][C]377[/C][C]379.815913948851[/C][C]-0.221210412002045[/C][C]-2.81591394885131[/C][C]-0.469998669465639[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]131[/C][C]383[/C][C]380.260933756528[/C][C]-0.113133166503969[/C][C]2.73906624347206[/C][C]0.0641858388623255[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]132[/C][C]352[/C][C]378.892247837771[/C][C]-0.316830734107288[/C][C]-26.892247837771[/C][C]-0.121026722917093[/C][/ROW]
[/TABLE]
Source: https://freestatistics.org/blog/index.php?pk=149837&T=1

Globally Unique Identifier (entire table): ba.freestatistics.org/blog/index.php?pk=149837&T=1

As an alternative you can also use a QR Code:  

The GUIDs for individual cells are displayed in the table below:

Structural Time Series Model
tObservedLevelSlopeSeasonalStand. Residuals
1274274000
2291287.4328028852760.8074371049135673.567197114724211.03222557030103
3280283.7453482799410.439638145208687-3.74534827994052-0.43852219689922
4258266.907017459355-1.19695133687673-8.90701745935493-1.857322676084
5252254.392282156557-2.44606383291734-2.39228215655746-1.19447407108349
6251249.70348028354-2.728106731032481.29651971645962-0.232141474212305
7224231.647758223384-4.8462559457749-7.64775822338392-1.56627357572074
8225223.54017993529-5.326278721041761.45982006471047-0.330232370712103
9234228.107739453355-3.8085118351695.892260546644550.995210649276812
10233231.277420606651-2.708349779253751.722579393349450.698587150120013
11229229.720047284146-2.52354617541797-0.7200472841463760.114834022687537
12208214.66307215771-4.5608031483925-6.66307215770983-1.24749880454103
13224219.409184768269-3.11721113204354.59081523173070.992243087668788
14226219.058328685216-2.664658794371836.941671314784290.268319342067694
15223219.58121835784-2.145456844285323.418781642160140.296268192931675
16205213.609239594907-2.76877595982789-8.60923959490664-0.372201922496364
17201205.096406188113-3.70934795919469-4.09640618811269-0.564076859017462
18202196.657406708023-4.485366283716455.34259329197744-0.461945286114112
19183190.160582184327-4.81551231340373-7.1605821843265-0.196056309134044
20188188.460962515954-4.3038872025858-0.4609625159540260.30386474859368
21200192.610910867702-2.914963931465417.389089132297750.825137535056588
22206199.738093459406-1.264503209383346.26190654059370.980427218722805
23211205.558118383982-0.1010950019122975.441881616017860.690752575417517
24201210.1190209611220.662126043834845-9.119020961121670.45493834606083
25299263.0929660791949.2122849077662735.9070339208065.21500434291356
26244255.7177094861486.48889704732773-11.7177094861476-1.62146662613245
27251250.3993712044284.561404933222970.600628795572335-1.12475962605963
28241249.377384237493.6524213382661-8.37738423748976-0.538857594369786
29244248.4147684129052.89875634549839-4.41476841290467-0.45020488676716
30252247.6053080110962.291683121345314.39469198890435-0.36118438961572
31234245.0763106606551.50221224965203-11.0763106606548-0.468151747749867
32246248.2653936092211.77837748437813-2.26539360922090.163699747615717
33265257.3101849435912.967715935019147.689815056408770.705309888714906
34277269.629580102124.49774083305537.370419897880340.90745503025113
35287284.0100643473286.112829698098722.989935652671560.958567167886612
36275299.4557899021637.63613678255327-24.45578990216290.908649805912402
37320289.1415817827884.7034163699353230.8584182172124-1.76112374273773
38338323.8546058540199.6132292546262314.1453941459812.91956990678893
39342339.66808159577810.62467782367562.331918404221860.595440851286267
40322336.9402130595878.4517674846495-14.9402130595871-1.28690129471487
41323331.6970932162476.2206562977348-8.69709321624668-1.33012458175039
42343335.827269705065.879424716979537.17273029494034-0.203264038654521
43315332.3251310602664.3469500846352-17.3251310602664-0.91010260399983
44334337.6213343608754.50198218353463-3.621334360874930.0919258188343577
45359350.6160559333825.888383581850598.383944066617770.821773220683462
46362358.6891755704126.244792255401723.310824429587510.21130629472197
47378372.7143201872637.51294015208755.285679812737070.753097178306774
48345371.8239349976376.14364525584092-26.8239349976374-0.816386036542823
49422393.416798479058.6637179377125128.58320152094971.50559394375245
50430412.86206732195910.423556893205917.13793267804071.04549283001325
51443430.9691544893311.675641832825912.03084551066990.739745722273374
52431441.79800825145311.5378962271717-10.7980082514531-0.0815991184873577
53425439.9112717980549.35358841204139-14.9112717980538-1.30024253198712
54432430.6211661300846.316142926203831.3788338699165-1.80934956051069
55387415.6688908347222.84837781087609-28.6688908347219-2.06122588493676
56396406.9145549623360.956680126796457-10.9145549623363-1.12214806495126
57411404.0788071463970.3386932584015336.92119285360307-0.366267065278945
58421413.4170631502591.804124648442037.582936849741160.868849580851793
59424416.8709790280432.072604309784727.129020971957220.159488988885772
60410434.9152222852324.67203085735433-24.91522228523221.54856752250608
61464442.0148009509575.0674638466664621.98519904904290.235698147287371
62486463.2367219179947.6998974603627322.7632780820061.56327678354072
63490476.1365176295648.5463589266298313.86348237043640.500983373116209
64459471.4657339510246.39752659752625-12.4657339510239-1.2735518667901
65454465.1662325508024.33338765680635-11.1662325508016-1.22757058587299
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Parameters (Session):
par1 = 12 ;
Parameters (R input):
par1 = 12 ;
R code (references can be found in the software module):
par1 <- as.numeric(par1)
nx <- length(x)
x <- ts(x,frequency=par1)
m <- StructTS(x,type='BSM')
m$coef
m$fitted
m$resid
mylevel <- as.numeric(m$fitted[,'level'])
myslope <- as.numeric(m$fitted[,'slope'])
myseas <- as.numeric(m$fitted[,'sea'])
myresid <- as.numeric(m$resid)
myfit <- mylevel+myseas
bitmap(file='test1.png')
plot(as.numeric(m$resid),main='Standardized Residuals',ylab='Residuals',xlab='time')
grid()
dev.off()
mylagmax <- nx/2
bitmap(file='test2.png')
op <- par(mfrow = c(2,2))
acf(as.numeric(x),lag.max = mylagmax,main='Observed')
acf(mylevel,na.action=na.pass,lag.max = mylagmax,main='Level')
acf(myseas,na.action=na.pass,lag.max = mylagmax,main='Seasonal')
acf(myresid,na.action=na.pass,lag.max = mylagmax,main='Standardized Residals')
par(op)
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test3.png')
op <- par(mfrow = c(2,2))
spectrum(as.numeric(x),main='Observed')
spectrum(mylevel,main='Level')
spectrum(myseas,main='Seasonal')
spectrum(myresid,main='Standardized Residals')
par(op)
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test4.png')
op <- par(mfrow = c(2,2))
cpgram(as.numeric(x),main='Observed')
cpgram(mylevel,main='Level')
cpgram(myseas,main='Seasonal')
cpgram(myresid,main='Standardized Residals')
par(op)
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test5.png')
op <- par(mfrow = c(2,2))
hist(m$resid,main='Residual Histogram')
plot(density(m$resid),main='Residual Kernel Density')
qqnorm(m$resid,main='Residual Normal QQ Plot')
qqline(m$resid)
plot(m$resid^2, myfit^2,main='Sq.Resid vs. Sq.Fit',xlab='Squared residuals',ylab='Squared Fit')
par(op)
dev.off()
load(file='createtable')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Structural Time Series Model',6,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'t',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Observed',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Slope',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Seasonal',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Stand. Residuals',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:nx) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,i,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,x[i])
a<-table.element(a,mylevel[i])
a<-table.element(a,myslope[i])
a<-table.element(a,myseas[i])
a<-table.element(a,myresid[i])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable.tab')