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Workshop 7 - regression model

*The author of this computation has been verified*
R Software Module: /rwasp_multipleregression.wasp (opens new window with default values)
Title produced by software: Multiple Regression
Date of computation: Tue, 23 Nov 2010 15:10:23 +0000
 
Cite this page as follows:
Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/23/t1290524951ru4djac155agwsf.htm/, Retrieved Tue, 23 Nov 2010 16:09:29 +0100
 
BibTeX entries for LaTeX users:
@Manual{KEY,
    author = {{YOUR NAME}},
    publisher = {Office for Research Development and Education},
    title = {Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/23/t1290524951ru4djac155agwsf.htm/},
    year = {2010},
}
@Manual{R,
    title = {R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing},
    author = {{R Development Core Team}},
    organization = {R Foundation for Statistical Computing},
    address = {Vienna, Austria},
    year = {2010},
    note = {{ISBN} 3-900051-07-0},
    url = {http://www.R-project.org},
}
 
Original text written by user:
 
IsPrivate?
No (this computation is public)
 
User-defined keywords:
 
Dataseries X:
» Textbox « » Textfile « » CSV «
70,5 4 370 67 53,5 315 6166 54 65 4 684 62 76,5 17 449 73 70 8 643 68 71 56 1551 68 60,5 15 616 60 51,5 503 36660 50 78 26 403 74 76 26 346 73 57,5 44 2471 57 61 24 7427 59 64,5 23 2992 64 78,5 38 233 75 79 18 609 76 61 96 7615 59 70 90 370 67 70 49 1066 67 72 66 600 68 64,5 21 4873 63 54,5 592 3485 53 56,5 73 2364 56 64,5 14 1016 62 64,5 88 1062 62 73 39 480 69 72 6 559 69 69 32 259 64 64 11 1340 61 78,5 26 275 75 53 23 12550 52 75 32 965 72 52,5 NA 25229 50 68,5 11 4883 66 70 5 1189 68 70,5 3 226 66 76 3 611 73 75,5 13 404 72 74,5 56 576 71 65 29 3096 63 54 NA 23193 52
 
Output produced by software:

Enter (or paste) a matrix (table) containing all data (time) series. Every column represents a different variable and must be delimited by a space or Tab. Every row represents a period in time (or category) and must be delimited by hard returns. The easiest way to enter data is to copy and paste a block of spreadsheet cells. Please, do not use commas or spaces to seperate groups of digits!


Summary of computational transaction
Raw Inputview raw input (R code)
Raw Outputview raw output of R engine
Computing time5 seconds
R Server'Gwilym Jenkins' @ 72.249.127.135


Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation
Yt[t] = -6.07613317665566 + 0.000351314085121308X1t[t] + 9.30390784089718e-06X2t[t] + 1.13154878529155X4t[t] + e[t]


Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares
VariableParameterS.D.T-STAT
H0: parameter = 0
2-tail p-value1-tail p-value
(Intercept)-6.076133176655662.006939-3.02760.0046790.002339
X1t0.0003513140851213080.0016060.21870.8281840.414092
X2t9.30390784089718e-063.4e-050.27570.7844520.392226
X4t1.131548785291550.02953838.30800


Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.993295841481829
R-squared0.986636628705095
Adjusted R-squared0.985457507708486
F-TEST (value)836.7560509416
F-TEST (DF numerator)3
F-TEST (DF denominator)34
p-value0
Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics
Residual Standard Deviation0.940888746055703
Sum Squared Residuals30.0992355034453


Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals
Time or IndexActualsInterpolation
Forecast
Residuals
Prediction Error
170.569.74248314011960.757516859880394
253.555.1955330616482-1.69553306164825
36564.08766064072410.912339359275858
476.576.5370779436952-0.0370779436951658
57070.8779771485924-0.877977148592454
67170.90328817299780.0967118270021877
760.561.8277948593442-1.32779485934420
851.551.01909833418520.480901665814824
97877.67136057599210.328639424007873
107676.5392814679536-0.539281467953644
1157.558.4605953609829-0.960595360982923
126160.76277681712310.237223182876914
1364.566.3789065982213-1.87890659822134
1478.578.8055434659722-0.305543465972182
157979.9335642389095-0.933564238909482
166160.78982056592590.210179434074092
177069.77269615144030.227303848559715
187069.76476779380760.235232206192423
197270.89795329749231.10204670250767
2064.565.2641558354083-0.764155835408272
2154.554.13635450101390.363645498986137
2256.557.3382391660209-0.838239166020916
2364.564.09426267897850.405737321021466
2464.564.12068790103820.379312098961809
257372.01890013354470.981099866455301
267272.0080417774551-0.00804177745512728
276966.35664084485832.64335915514174
286462.9646744175721.03532558242793
2978.578.80171846108-0.301718461080044
305352.8892479258660.110752074133976
317575.4155996861263-0.415599686126337
3252.552.6553820895101-0.155382089510121
3368.569.3820031400182-0.88200314001822
347068.10924327801411.89075672198591
3570.571.0336667795737-0.533666779573694
367675.90370522621030.0962947737897103
3775.575.28886321872760.211136781272411
3874.574.750433303856-0.250433303855969
3965NANA
4054NANA


Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
p-valuesAlternative Hypothesis
breakpoint indexgreater2-sidedless
70.7239236554790750.552152689041850.276076344520925
80.6442823602290070.7114352795419870.355717639770993
90.5039388311063830.9921223377872330.496061168893617
100.4178830819857960.8357661639715910.582116918014204
110.3961690591243840.7923381182487680.603830940875616
120.286359216992090.572718433984180.71364078300791
130.6780098972672880.6439802054654230.321990102732712
140.5763664750359250.847267049928150.423633524964075
150.5622397423540770.8755205152918450.437760257645923
160.4890384402585690.9780768805171380.510961559741431
170.4551546553831440.9103093107662870.544845344616856
180.3816289011292230.7632578022584470.618371098870776
190.4708488943198220.9416977886396430.529151105680178
200.4276764161510100.8553528323020190.57232358384899
210.4101791603106920.8203583206213840.589820839689308
220.5882972065131980.8234055869736050.411702793486802
230.5889159368800920.8221681262398150.411084063119908
240.668855882901040.662288234197920.33114411709896
250.6234416900583230.7531166198833530.376558309941677
260.5153384766029090.9693230467941830.484661523397091
270.8349014655027650.330197068994470.165098534497235
280.7600177258561180.4799645482877640.239982274143882
290.6480717008527890.7038565982944220.351928299147211
300.5329500061067340.9340999877865310.467049993893265
310.3653342997125120.7306685994250250.634665700287488
320.5642397181995080.8715205636009850.435760281800492
330.9353284556711350.1293430886577290.0646715443288645


Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
Description# significant tests% significant testsOK/NOK
1% type I error level00OK
5% type I error level00OK
10% type I error level00OK
 
Charts produced by software:
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/23/t1290524951ru4djac155agwsf/10dxg21290525016.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/23/t1290524951ru4djac155agwsf/10dxg21290525016.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/23/t1290524951ru4djac155agwsf/1oej81290525016.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/23/t1290524951ru4djac155agwsf/1oej81290525016.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/23/t1290524951ru4djac155agwsf/2oej81290525016.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/23/t1290524951ru4djac155agwsf/2oej81290525016.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/23/t1290524951ru4djac155agwsf/3hn0b1290525016.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/23/t1290524951ru4djac155agwsf/3hn0b1290525016.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/23/t1290524951ru4djac155agwsf/4hn0b1290525016.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/23/t1290524951ru4djac155agwsf/4hn0b1290525016.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/23/t1290524951ru4djac155agwsf/5hn0b1290525016.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/23/t1290524951ru4djac155agwsf/5hn0b1290525016.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/23/t1290524951ru4djac155agwsf/6sxzw1290525016.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/23/t1290524951ru4djac155agwsf/6sxzw1290525016.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/23/t1290524951ru4djac155agwsf/7k6hh1290525016.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/23/t1290524951ru4djac155agwsf/7k6hh1290525016.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/23/t1290524951ru4djac155agwsf/8k6hh1290525016.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/23/t1290524951ru4djac155agwsf/8k6hh1290525016.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/23/t1290524951ru4djac155agwsf/9k6hh1290525016.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/23/t1290524951ru4djac155agwsf/9k6hh1290525016.ps (open in new window)


 
Parameters (Session):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Do not include Seasonal Dummies ; par3 = No Linear Trend ;
 
Parameters (R input):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Do not include Seasonal Dummies ; par3 = No Linear Trend ;
 
R code (references can be found in the software module):
library(lattice)
library(lmtest)
n25 <- 25 #minimum number of obs. for Goldfeld-Quandt test
par1 <- as.numeric(par1)
x <- t(y)
k <- length(x[1,])
n <- length(x[,1])
x1 <- cbind(x[,par1], x[,1:k!=par1])
mycolnames <- c(colnames(x)[par1], colnames(x)[1:k!=par1])
colnames(x1) <- mycolnames #colnames(x)[par1]
x <- x1
if (par3 == 'First Differences'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n-1,k), dimnames=list(1:(n-1), paste('(1-B)',colnames(x),sep='')))
for (i in 1:n-1) {
for (j in 1:k) {
x2[i,j] <- x[i+1,j] - x[i,j]
}
}
x <- x2
}
if (par2 == 'Include Monthly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,11), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('M', seq(1:11), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:11){
x2[seq(i,n,12),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
if (par2 == 'Include Quarterly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,3), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('Q', seq(1:3), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:3){
x2[seq(i,n,4),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
k <- length(x[1,])
if (par3 == 'Linear Trend'){
x <- cbind(x, c(1:n))
colnames(x)[k+1] <- 't'
}
x
k <- length(x[1,])
df <- as.data.frame(x)
(mylm <- lm(df))
(mysum <- summary(mylm))
if (n > n25) {
kp3 <- k + 3
nmkm3 <- n - k - 3
gqarr <- array(NA, dim=c(nmkm3-kp3+1,3))
numgqtests <- 0
numsignificant1 <- 0
numsignificant5 <- 0
numsignificant10 <- 0
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
j <- 0
numgqtests <- numgqtests + 1
for (myalt in c('greater', 'two.sided', 'less')) {
j <- j + 1
gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,j] <- gqtest(mylm, point=mypoint, alternative=myalt)$p.value
}
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.01) numsignificant1 <- numsignificant1 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.05) numsignificant5 <- numsignificant5 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.10) numsignificant10 <- numsignificant10 + 1
}
gqarr
}
bitmap(file='test0.png')
plot(x[,1], type='l', main='Actuals and Interpolation', ylab='value of Actuals and Interpolation (dots)', xlab='time or index')
points(x[,1]-mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test1.png')
plot(mysum$resid, type='b', pch=19, main='Residuals', ylab='value of Residuals', xlab='time or index')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test2.png')
hist(mysum$resid, main='Residual Histogram', xlab='values of Residuals')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test3.png')
densityplot(~mysum$resid,col='black',main='Residual Density Plot', xlab='values of Residuals')
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test4.png')
qqnorm(mysum$resid, main='Residual Normal Q-Q Plot')
qqline(mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
(myerror <- as.ts(mysum$resid))
bitmap(file='test5.png')
dum <- cbind(lag(myerror,k=1),myerror)
dum
dum1 <- dum[2:length(myerror),]
dum1
z <- as.data.frame(dum1)
z
plot(z,main=paste('Residual Lag plot, lowess, and regression line'), ylab='values of Residuals', xlab='lagged values of Residuals')
lines(lowess(z))
abline(lm(z))
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test6.png')
acf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test7.png')
pacf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Partial Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test8.png')
opar <- par(mfrow = c(2,2), oma = c(0, 0, 1.1, 0))
plot(mylm, las = 1, sub='Residual Diagnostics')
par(opar)
dev.off()
if (n > n25) {
bitmap(file='test9.png')
plot(kp3:nmkm3,gqarr[,2], main='Goldfeld-Quandt test',ylab='2-sided p-value',xlab='breakpoint')
grid()
dev.off()
}
load(file='createtable')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
myeq <- colnames(x)[1]
myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t] = ', sep='')
for (i in 1:k){
if (mysum$coefficients[i,1] > 0) myeq <- paste(myeq, '+', '')
myeq <- paste(myeq, mysum$coefficients[i,1], sep=' ')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != '(Intercept)') {
myeq <- paste(myeq, rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i], sep='')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != 't') myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t]', sep='')
}
}
myeq <- paste(myeq, ' + e[t]')
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, myeq)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable1.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/ols1.htm','Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares',''), 6, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Variable',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Parameter',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'S.D.',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'T-STAT<br />H0: parameter = 0',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'1-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:k){
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i],header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,mysum$coefficients[i,1])
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,2],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,3],4))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4]/2,6))
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable2.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple R',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sqrt(mysum$r.squared))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Adjusted R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$adj.r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (value)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[1])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF numerator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[2])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF denominator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'p-value',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 1-pf(mysum$fstatistic[1],mysum$fstatistic[2],mysum$fstatistic[3]))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residual Standard Deviation',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$sigma)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Sum Squared Residuals',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sum(myerror*myerror))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable3.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals', 4, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Time or Index', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Actuals', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Interpolation<br />Forecast', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residuals<br />Prediction Error', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:n) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,i, 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,x[i])
a<-table.element(a,x[i]-mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.element(a,mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable4.tab')
if (n > n25) {
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'p-values',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Alternative Hypothesis',3,header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'breakpoint index',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'greater',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-sided',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'less',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,mypoint,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,1])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable5.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Description',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'# significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'% significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'OK/NOK',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'1% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant1/numgqtests < 0.01) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'5% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant5/numgqtests < 0.05) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'10% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant10/numgqtests < 0.1) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable6.tab')
}
 





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