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paperMR2(werk)

*The author of this computation has been verified*
R Software Module: /rwasp_multipleregression.wasp (opens new window with default values)
Title produced by software: Multiple Regression
Date of computation: Tue, 21 Dec 2010 13:32:08 +0000
 
Cite this page as follows:
Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/21/t129293819118ohsn902ajw0xi.htm/, Retrieved Tue, 21 Dec 2010 14:30:02 +0100
 
BibTeX entries for LaTeX users:
@Manual{KEY,
    author = {{YOUR NAME}},
    publisher = {Office for Research Development and Education},
    title = {Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/21/t129293819118ohsn902ajw0xi.htm/},
    year = {2010},
}
@Manual{R,
    title = {R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing},
    author = {{R Development Core Team}},
    organization = {R Foundation for Statistical Computing},
    address = {Vienna, Austria},
    year = {2010},
    note = {{ISBN} 3-900051-07-0},
    url = {http://www.R-project.org},
}
 
Original text written by user:
 
IsPrivate?
No (this computation is public)
 
User-defined keywords:
 
Dataseries X:
» Textbox « » Textfile « » CSV «
595 0 597 0 593 0 590 0 580 0 574 0 573 0 573 0 620 0 626 0 620 0 588 0 566 0 557 0 561 0 549 0 532 0 526 0 511 0 499 0 555 0 565 0 542 0 527 0 510 0 514 0 517 0 508 0 493 0 490 0 469 0 478 0 528 0 534 0 518 0 506 0 502 1 516 1 528 1 533 1 536 1 537 1 524 1 536 1 587 1 597 1 581 1 564 1 558 1 575 1 580 1 575 1 563 1 552 1 537 1 545 1 601 1 604 1 586 1 564 1 549 1
 
Output produced by software:

Enter (or paste) a matrix (table) containing all data (time) series. Every column represents a different variable and must be delimited by a space or Tab. Every row represents a period in time (or category) and must be delimited by hard returns. The easiest way to enter data is to copy and paste a block of spreadsheet cells. Please, do not use commas or spaces to seperate groups of digits!


Summary of computational transaction
Raw Inputview raw input (R code)
Raw Outputview raw output of R engine
Computing time7 seconds
R Server'George Udny Yule' @ 72.249.76.132


Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation
werkloosheid[t] = + 545.544217687075 + 10.6394557823129X[t] -4.19727891156465M1[t] + 2.00000000000002M2[t] + 6.00000000000003M3[t] + 1.20000000000003M4[t] -8.99999999999995M5[t] -14M6[t] -27.0000000000000M7[t] -23.6000000000000M8[t] + 28.4000000000001M9[t] + 35.4M10[t] + 19.6000000000000M11[t] + e[t]


Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares
VariableParameterS.D.T-STAT
H0: parameter = 0
2-tail p-value1-tail p-value
(Intercept)545.54421768707516.1588633.761300
X10.63945578231299.1776161.15930.2520750.126038
M1-4.1972789115646521.326852-0.19680.8448090.422405
M22.0000000000000222.2545360.08990.9287650.464383
M36.0000000000000322.2545360.26960.7886180.394309
M41.2000000000000322.2545360.05390.9572210.478611
M5-8.9999999999999522.254536-0.40440.6877060.343853
M6-1422.254536-0.62910.5322760.266138
M7-27.000000000000022.254536-1.21320.2309760.115488
M8-23.600000000000022.254536-1.06050.2942430.147122
M928.400000000000122.2545361.27610.2080450.104022
M1035.422.2545361.59070.1182450.059123
M1119.600000000000022.2545360.88070.3828580.191429


Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.518642621269286
R-squared0.268990168597076
Adjusted R-squared0.0862377107463449
F-TEST (value)1.47188263162393
F-TEST (DF numerator)12
F-TEST (DF denominator)48
p-value0.168108290720798
Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics
Residual Standard Deviation35.1875103460552
Sum Squared Residuals59431.7224489796


Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals
Time or IndexActualsInterpolation
Forecast
Residuals
Prediction Error
1595541.3469387755153.6530612244896
2597547.54421768707549.4557823129252
3593551.54421768707541.4557823129252
4590546.74421768707543.2557823129252
5580536.54421768707543.4557823129252
6574531.54421768707542.4557823129252
7573518.54421768707554.4557823129251
8573521.94421768707551.0557823129252
9620573.94421768707546.0557823129253
10626580.94421768707545.0557823129252
11620565.14421768707554.8557823129252
12588545.54421768707542.4557823129252
13566541.3469387755124.6530612244898
14557547.5442176870759.45578231292517
15561551.5442176870759.45578231292516
16549546.7442176870752.25578231292518
17532536.544217687075-4.54421768707483
18526531.544217687075-5.54421768707483
19511518.544217687075-7.5442176870748
20499521.944217687075-22.9442176870748
21555573.944217687075-18.9442176870748
22565580.944217687075-15.9442176870748
23542565.144217687075-23.1442176870748
24527545.544217687075-18.5442176870748
25510541.34693877551-31.3469387755102
26514547.544217687075-33.5442176870748
27517551.544217687075-34.5442176870749
28508546.744217687075-38.7442176870748
29493536.544217687075-43.5442176870748
30490531.544217687075-41.5442176870748
31469518.544217687075-49.5442176870748
32478521.944217687075-43.9442176870748
33528573.944217687075-45.9442176870749
34534580.944217687075-46.9442176870748
35518565.144217687075-47.1442176870748
36506545.544217687075-39.5442176870748
37502551.986394557823-49.9863945578231
38516558.183673469388-42.1836734693878
39528562.183673469388-34.1836734693878
40533557.383673469388-24.3836734693878
41536547.183673469388-11.1836734693878
42537542.183673469388-5.18367346938776
43524529.183673469388-5.18367346938774
44536532.5836734693883.41632653061222
45587584.5836734693882.41632653061222
46597591.5836734693885.41632653061223
47581575.7836734693885.21632653061224
48564556.1836734693887.81632653061226
49558551.9863945578236.01360544217689
50575558.18367346938816.8163265306122
51580562.18367346938817.8163265306122
52575557.38367346938817.6163265306122
53563547.18367346938815.8163265306122
54552542.1836734693889.81632653061225
55537529.1836734693887.81632653061225
56545532.58367346938812.4163265306122
57601584.58367346938816.4163265306122
58604591.58367346938812.4163265306122
59586575.78367346938810.2163265306122
60564556.1836734693887.81632653061226
61549551.986394557823-2.98639455782311


Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
p-valuesAlternative Hypothesis
breakpoint indexgreater2-sidedless
160.9193260023515410.1613479952969180.0806739976484588
170.9550164703425630.08996705931487450.0449835296574373
180.973851264061170.05229747187765810.0261487359388291
190.9920487977503230.01590240449935510.00795120224967753
200.9975432895503550.00491342089928930.00245671044964465
210.998583888043820.002832223912361380.00141611195618069
220.9990113211773940.001977357645211410.000988678822605706
230.9994906348813030.001018730237394950.000509365118697475
240.9995162197329540.0009675605340915720.000483780267045786
250.999785765887270.0004284682254607010.000214234112730351
260.9998439056349640.0003121887300725640.000156094365036282
270.9998524068670190.0002951862659624320.000147593132981216
280.9998256966325660.000348606734868030.000174303367434015
290.999756212487010.0004875750259783440.000243787512989172
300.9996317030104660.0007365939790685240.000368296989534262
310.9995036257537550.0009927484924905140.000496374246245257
320.9991290892654770.001741821469046560.000870910734523282
330.998480478753070.003039042493860270.00151952124693013
340.997383394362550.005233211274899990.00261660563744999
350.9955324570859760.008935085828047630.00446754291402381
360.9915956034133260.01680879317334780.0084043965866739
370.9950524442018360.0098951115963270.0049475557981635
380.9981519895718960.003696020856208750.00184801042810438
390.9995134169147680.0009731661704646580.000486583085232329
400.9999020139606320.0001959720787351379.79860393675685e-05
410.9999487669750250.0001024660499497605.12330249748799e-05
420.9998867510805180.000226497838963620.00011324891948181
430.9996893050517710.0006213898964575350.000310694948228768
440.9986513172506840.002697365498631940.00134868274931597
450.9973410994579620.005317801084075620.00265890054203781


Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
Description# significant tests% significant testsOK/NOK
1% type I error level250.833333333333333NOK
5% type I error level270.9NOK
10% type I error level290.966666666666667NOK
 
Charts produced by software:
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/21/t129293819118ohsn902ajw0xi/10twzn1292938318.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/21/t129293819118ohsn902ajw0xi/10twzn1292938318.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/21/t129293819118ohsn902ajw0xi/1mv2c1292938318.png (open in new window)
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http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/21/t129293819118ohsn902ajw0xi/2xnjf1292938318.png (open in new window)
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http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/21/t129293819118ohsn902ajw0xi/3xnjf1292938318.png (open in new window)
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http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/21/t129293819118ohsn902ajw0xi/70ni31292938318.png (open in new window)
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http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/21/t129293819118ohsn902ajw0xi/80ni31292938318.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/21/t129293819118ohsn902ajw0xi/80ni31292938318.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/21/t129293819118ohsn902ajw0xi/9twzn1292938318.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/21/t129293819118ohsn902ajw0xi/9twzn1292938318.ps (open in new window)


 
Parameters (Session):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Include Monthly Dummies ; par3 = Linear Trend ;
 
Parameters (R input):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Include Monthly Dummies ; par3 = No Linear Trend ;
 
R code (references can be found in the software module):
library(lattice)
library(lmtest)
n25 <- 25 #minimum number of obs. for Goldfeld-Quandt test
par1 <- as.numeric(par1)
x <- t(y)
k <- length(x[1,])
n <- length(x[,1])
x1 <- cbind(x[,par1], x[,1:k!=par1])
mycolnames <- c(colnames(x)[par1], colnames(x)[1:k!=par1])
colnames(x1) <- mycolnames #colnames(x)[par1]
x <- x1
if (par3 == 'First Differences'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n-1,k), dimnames=list(1:(n-1), paste('(1-B)',colnames(x),sep='')))
for (i in 1:n-1) {
for (j in 1:k) {
x2[i,j] <- x[i+1,j] - x[i,j]
}
}
x <- x2
}
if (par2 == 'Include Monthly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,11), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('M', seq(1:11), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:11){
x2[seq(i,n,12),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
if (par2 == 'Include Quarterly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,3), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('Q', seq(1:3), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:3){
x2[seq(i,n,4),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
k <- length(x[1,])
if (par3 == 'Linear Trend'){
x <- cbind(x, c(1:n))
colnames(x)[k+1] <- 't'
}
x
k <- length(x[1,])
df <- as.data.frame(x)
(mylm <- lm(df))
(mysum <- summary(mylm))
if (n > n25) {
kp3 <- k + 3
nmkm3 <- n - k - 3
gqarr <- array(NA, dim=c(nmkm3-kp3+1,3))
numgqtests <- 0
numsignificant1 <- 0
numsignificant5 <- 0
numsignificant10 <- 0
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
j <- 0
numgqtests <- numgqtests + 1
for (myalt in c('greater', 'two.sided', 'less')) {
j <- j + 1
gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,j] <- gqtest(mylm, point=mypoint, alternative=myalt)$p.value
}
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.01) numsignificant1 <- numsignificant1 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.05) numsignificant5 <- numsignificant5 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.10) numsignificant10 <- numsignificant10 + 1
}
gqarr
}
bitmap(file='test0.png')
plot(x[,1], type='l', main='Actuals and Interpolation', ylab='value of Actuals and Interpolation (dots)', xlab='time or index')
points(x[,1]-mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test1.png')
plot(mysum$resid, type='b', pch=19, main='Residuals', ylab='value of Residuals', xlab='time or index')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test2.png')
hist(mysum$resid, main='Residual Histogram', xlab='values of Residuals')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test3.png')
densityplot(~mysum$resid,col='black',main='Residual Density Plot', xlab='values of Residuals')
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test4.png')
qqnorm(mysum$resid, main='Residual Normal Q-Q Plot')
qqline(mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
(myerror <- as.ts(mysum$resid))
bitmap(file='test5.png')
dum <- cbind(lag(myerror,k=1),myerror)
dum
dum1 <- dum[2:length(myerror),]
dum1
z <- as.data.frame(dum1)
z
plot(z,main=paste('Residual Lag plot, lowess, and regression line'), ylab='values of Residuals', xlab='lagged values of Residuals')
lines(lowess(z))
abline(lm(z))
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test6.png')
acf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test7.png')
pacf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Partial Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test8.png')
opar <- par(mfrow = c(2,2), oma = c(0, 0, 1.1, 0))
plot(mylm, las = 1, sub='Residual Diagnostics')
par(opar)
dev.off()
if (n > n25) {
bitmap(file='test9.png')
plot(kp3:nmkm3,gqarr[,2], main='Goldfeld-Quandt test',ylab='2-sided p-value',xlab='breakpoint')
grid()
dev.off()
}
load(file='createtable')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
myeq <- colnames(x)[1]
myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t] = ', sep='')
for (i in 1:k){
if (mysum$coefficients[i,1] > 0) myeq <- paste(myeq, '+', '')
myeq <- paste(myeq, mysum$coefficients[i,1], sep=' ')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != '(Intercept)') {
myeq <- paste(myeq, rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i], sep='')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != 't') myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t]', sep='')
}
}
myeq <- paste(myeq, ' + e[t]')
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, myeq)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable1.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/ols1.htm','Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares',''), 6, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Variable',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Parameter',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'S.D.',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'T-STAT<br />H0: parameter = 0',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'1-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:k){
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i],header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,mysum$coefficients[i,1])
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,2],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,3],4))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4]/2,6))
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable2.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple R',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sqrt(mysum$r.squared))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Adjusted R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$adj.r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (value)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[1])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF numerator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[2])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF denominator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'p-value',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 1-pf(mysum$fstatistic[1],mysum$fstatistic[2],mysum$fstatistic[3]))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residual Standard Deviation',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$sigma)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Sum Squared Residuals',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sum(myerror*myerror))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable3.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals', 4, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Time or Index', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Actuals', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Interpolation<br />Forecast', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residuals<br />Prediction Error', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:n) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,i, 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,x[i])
a<-table.element(a,x[i]-mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.element(a,mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable4.tab')
if (n > n25) {
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'p-values',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Alternative Hypothesis',3,header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'breakpoint index',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'greater',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-sided',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'less',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,mypoint,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,1])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable5.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Description',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'# significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'% significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'OK/NOK',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'1% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant1/numgqtests < 0.01) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'5% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant5/numgqtests < 0.05) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'10% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant10/numgqtests < 0.1) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable6.tab')
}
 





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Software written by Ed van Stee & Patrick Wessa


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