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*The author of this computation has been verified*
R Software Module: /rwasp_multipleregression.wasp (opens new window with default values)
Title produced by software: Multiple Regression
Date of computation: Fri, 17 Dec 2010 12:00:00 +0000
 
Cite this page as follows:
Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/17/t1292587094wo7svy23w5bzvlx.htm/, Retrieved Fri, 17 Dec 2010 12:58:26 +0100
 
BibTeX entries for LaTeX users:
@Manual{KEY,
    author = {{YOUR NAME}},
    publisher = {Office for Research Development and Education},
    title = {Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/17/t1292587094wo7svy23w5bzvlx.htm/},
    year = {2010},
}
@Manual{R,
    title = {R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing},
    author = {{R Development Core Team}},
    organization = {R Foundation for Statistical Computing},
    address = {Vienna, Austria},
    year = {2010},
    note = {{ISBN} 3-900051-07-0},
    url = {http://www.R-project.org},
}
 
Original text written by user:
 
IsPrivate?
No (this computation is public)
 
User-defined keywords:
 
Dataseries X:
» Textbox « » Textfile « » CSV «
461 463 462 456 455 456 472 472 471 465 459 465 468 467 463 460 462 461 476 476 471 453 443 442 444 438 427 424 416 406 431 434 418 412 404 409 412 406 398 397 385 390 413 413 401 397 397 409 419 424 428 430 424 433 456 459 446 441 439 454 460
 
Output produced by software:

Enter (or paste) a matrix (table) containing all data (time) series. Every column represents a different variable and must be delimited by a space or Tab. Every row represents a period in time (or category) and must be delimited by hard returns. The easiest way to enter data is to copy and paste a block of spreadsheet cells. Please, do not use commas or spaces to seperate groups of digits!


Summary of computational transaction
Raw Inputview raw input (R code)
Raw Outputview raw output of R engine
Computing time7 seconds
R Server'George Udny Yule' @ 72.249.76.132


Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation
HPC[t] = + 466.011764705882 + 4.00392156862764M1[t] -4.59215686274512M2[t] -7.7529411764706M3[t] -9.1137254901961M4[t] -13.2745098039216M5[t] -11.6352941176471M6[t] + 9.60392156862745M7[t] + 11.6431372549020M8[t] + 3.08235294117648M9[t] -3.87843137254902M10[t] -8.2392156862745M11[t] -0.83921568627451t + e[t]


Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares
VariableParameterS.D.T-STAT
H0: parameter = 0
2-tail p-value1-tail p-value
(Intercept)466.01176470588211.7106639.793800
M14.0039215686276413.6573840.29320.7706570.385328
M2-4.5921568627451214.33487-0.32030.7500940.375047
M3-7.752941176470614.316564-0.54150.5906430.295321
M4-9.113725490196114.300165-0.63730.5269470.263474
M5-13.274509803921614.28568-0.92920.3574260.178713
M6-11.635294117647114.273115-0.81520.418990.209495
M79.6039215686274514.2624740.67340.5039410.251971
M811.643137254902014.2537610.81680.4180520.209026
M93.0823529411764814.2469810.21640.8296310.414815
M10-3.8784313725490214.242137-0.27230.7865430.393272
M11-8.239215686274514.239229-0.57860.5655460.282773
t-0.839215686274510.166146-5.05117e-063e-06


Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.632982889193472
R-squared0.400667338011716
Adjusted R-squared0.250834172514645
F-TEST (value)2.67408978968377
F-TEST (DF numerator)12
F-TEST (DF denominator)48
p-value0.0078111502846312
Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics
Residual Standard Deviation22.5126652806640
Sum Squared Residuals24327.3647058823


Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals
Time or IndexActualsInterpolation
Forecast
Residuals
Prediction Error
1461469.176470588234-8.17647058823438
2463459.7411764705883.2588235294117
3462455.7411764705886.25882352941172
4456453.5411764705882.45882352941174
5455448.5411764705886.45882352941175
6456449.3411764705886.65882352941173
7472469.7411764705882.25882352941173
8472470.9411764705881.05882352941173
9471461.5411764705889.45882352941174
10465453.74117647058811.2588235294117
11459448.54117647058810.4588235294117
12465455.9411764705889.05882352941173
13468459.1058823529418.8941176470585
14467449.67058823529417.3294117647059
15463445.67058823529417.3294117647059
16460443.47058823529416.5294117647058
17462438.47058823529423.5294117647059
18461439.27058823529421.7294117647059
19476459.67058823529416.3294117647059
20476460.87058823529415.1294117647059
21471451.47058823529419.5294117647059
22453443.6705882352949.32941176470586
23443438.4705882352944.52941176470586
24442445.870588235294-3.87058823529413
25444449.035294117647-5.03529411764724
26438439.6-1.59999999999999
27427435.6-8.6
28424433.4-9.4
29416428.4-12.4000000000000
30406429.2-23.2
31431449.6-18.6
32434450.8-16.8
33418441.4-23.4
34412433.6-21.6
35404428.4-24.4
36409435.8-26.8
37412438.964705882353-26.9647058823531
38406429.529411764706-23.5294117647059
39398425.529411764706-27.5294117647059
40397423.329411764706-26.3294117647059
41385418.329411764706-33.3294117647059
42390419.129411764706-29.1294117647059
43413439.529411764706-26.5294117647059
44413440.729411764706-27.7294117647059
45401431.329411764706-30.3294117647059
46397423.529411764706-26.5294117647058
47397418.329411764706-21.3294117647059
48409425.729411764706-16.7294117647059
49419428.894117647059-9.89411764705896
50424419.4588235294124.54117647058829
51428415.45882352941212.5411764705883
52430413.25882352941216.7411764705883
53424408.25882352941215.7411764705883
54433409.05882352941223.9411764705883
55456429.45882352941226.5411764705883
56459430.65882352941228.3411764705883
57446421.25882352941224.7411764705883
58441413.45882352941227.5411764705883
59439408.25882352941230.7411764705883
60454415.65882352941238.3411764705883
61460418.82352941176541.1764705882352


Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
p-valuesAlternative Hypothesis
breakpoint indexgreater2-sidedless
160.0004441894070390940.0008883788140781890.999555810592961
175.49289896581173e-050.0001098579793162350.999945071010342
184.09720977349934e-068.19441954699869e-060.999995902790227
192.98475209221193e-075.96950418442387e-070.99999970152479
202.21183336164477e-084.42366672328955e-080.999999977881666
211.72462664061682e-083.44925328123364e-080.999999982753734
226.63149324278127e-061.32629864855625e-050.999993368506757
236.9397182390108e-050.0001387943647802160.99993060281761
240.0005871585612669590.001174317122533920.999412841438733
250.001311690170053600.002623380340107200.998688309829946
260.004391683244242990.008783366488485990.995608316755757
270.01651574911867530.03303149823735050.983484250881325
280.03105246024499280.06210492048998570.968947539755007
290.0889820149561120.1779640299122240.911017985043888
300.1899034832114990.3798069664229990.8100965167885
310.2387641423508380.4775282847016760.761235857649162
320.3095357350485030.6190714700970060.690464264951497
330.486065467283870.972130934567740.51393453271613
340.6808554420444220.6382891159111570.319144557955578
350.8512861827798290.2974276344403420.148713817220171
360.9480147820773670.1039704358452660.0519852179226331
370.9966276069315140.006744786136971540.00337239306848577
380.9999090260075410.0001819479849171489.09739924585739e-05
390.999983113259643.37734807212868e-051.68867403606434e-05
400.9999992547807161.49043856807607e-067.45219284038036e-07
410.9999994488277751.10234444987671e-065.51172224938354e-07
420.999994308931791.13821364208502e-055.69106821042508e-06
430.9999451640684340.0001096718631318055.48359315659024e-05
440.999740662938380.0005186741232380780.000259337061619039
450.9982695098113030.003460980377393020.00173049018869651


Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
Description# significant tests% significant testsOK/NOK
1% type I error level200.666666666666667NOK
5% type I error level210.7NOK
10% type I error level220.733333333333333NOK
 
Charts produced by software:
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/17/t1292587094wo7svy23w5bzvlx/10ewky1292587192.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/17/t1292587094wo7svy23w5bzvlx/10ewky1292587192.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/17/t1292587094wo7svy23w5bzvlx/18dn41292587192.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/17/t1292587094wo7svy23w5bzvlx/18dn41292587192.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/17/t1292587094wo7svy23w5bzvlx/25pbv1292587192.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/17/t1292587094wo7svy23w5bzvlx/25pbv1292587192.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/17/t1292587094wo7svy23w5bzvlx/35pbv1292587192.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/17/t1292587094wo7svy23w5bzvlx/35pbv1292587192.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/17/t1292587094wo7svy23w5bzvlx/45pbv1292587192.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/17/t1292587094wo7svy23w5bzvlx/45pbv1292587192.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/17/t1292587094wo7svy23w5bzvlx/55pbv1292587192.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/17/t1292587094wo7svy23w5bzvlx/55pbv1292587192.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/17/t1292587094wo7svy23w5bzvlx/6yzsg1292587192.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/17/t1292587094wo7svy23w5bzvlx/6yzsg1292587192.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/17/t1292587094wo7svy23w5bzvlx/74n3v1292587192.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/17/t1292587094wo7svy23w5bzvlx/74n3v1292587192.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/17/t1292587094wo7svy23w5bzvlx/84n3v1292587192.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/17/t1292587094wo7svy23w5bzvlx/84n3v1292587192.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/17/t1292587094wo7svy23w5bzvlx/9ewky1292587192.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/17/t1292587094wo7svy23w5bzvlx/9ewky1292587192.ps (open in new window)


 
Parameters (Session):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Include Monthly Dummies ; par3 = Linear Trend ;
 
Parameters (R input):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Include Monthly Dummies ; par3 = Linear Trend ;
 
R code (references can be found in the software module):
library(lattice)
library(lmtest)
n25 <- 25 #minimum number of obs. for Goldfeld-Quandt test
par1 <- as.numeric(par1)
x <- t(y)
k <- length(x[1,])
n <- length(x[,1])
x1 <- cbind(x[,par1], x[,1:k!=par1])
mycolnames <- c(colnames(x)[par1], colnames(x)[1:k!=par1])
colnames(x1) <- mycolnames #colnames(x)[par1]
x <- x1
if (par3 == 'First Differences'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n-1,k), dimnames=list(1:(n-1), paste('(1-B)',colnames(x),sep='')))
for (i in 1:n-1) {
for (j in 1:k) {
x2[i,j] <- x[i+1,j] - x[i,j]
}
}
x <- x2
}
if (par2 == 'Include Monthly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,11), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('M', seq(1:11), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:11){
x2[seq(i,n,12),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
if (par2 == 'Include Quarterly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,3), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('Q', seq(1:3), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:3){
x2[seq(i,n,4),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
k <- length(x[1,])
if (par3 == 'Linear Trend'){
x <- cbind(x, c(1:n))
colnames(x)[k+1] <- 't'
}
x
k <- length(x[1,])
df <- as.data.frame(x)
(mylm <- lm(df))
(mysum <- summary(mylm))
if (n > n25) {
kp3 <- k + 3
nmkm3 <- n - k - 3
gqarr <- array(NA, dim=c(nmkm3-kp3+1,3))
numgqtests <- 0
numsignificant1 <- 0
numsignificant5 <- 0
numsignificant10 <- 0
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
j <- 0
numgqtests <- numgqtests + 1
for (myalt in c('greater', 'two.sided', 'less')) {
j <- j + 1
gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,j] <- gqtest(mylm, point=mypoint, alternative=myalt)$p.value
}
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.01) numsignificant1 <- numsignificant1 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.05) numsignificant5 <- numsignificant5 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.10) numsignificant10 <- numsignificant10 + 1
}
gqarr
}
bitmap(file='test0.png')
plot(x[,1], type='l', main='Actuals and Interpolation', ylab='value of Actuals and Interpolation (dots)', xlab='time or index')
points(x[,1]-mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test1.png')
plot(mysum$resid, type='b', pch=19, main='Residuals', ylab='value of Residuals', xlab='time or index')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test2.png')
hist(mysum$resid, main='Residual Histogram', xlab='values of Residuals')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test3.png')
densityplot(~mysum$resid,col='black',main='Residual Density Plot', xlab='values of Residuals')
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test4.png')
qqnorm(mysum$resid, main='Residual Normal Q-Q Plot')
qqline(mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
(myerror <- as.ts(mysum$resid))
bitmap(file='test5.png')
dum <- cbind(lag(myerror,k=1),myerror)
dum
dum1 <- dum[2:length(myerror),]
dum1
z <- as.data.frame(dum1)
z
plot(z,main=paste('Residual Lag plot, lowess, and regression line'), ylab='values of Residuals', xlab='lagged values of Residuals')
lines(lowess(z))
abline(lm(z))
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test6.png')
acf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test7.png')
pacf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Partial Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test8.png')
opar <- par(mfrow = c(2,2), oma = c(0, 0, 1.1, 0))
plot(mylm, las = 1, sub='Residual Diagnostics')
par(opar)
dev.off()
if (n > n25) {
bitmap(file='test9.png')
plot(kp3:nmkm3,gqarr[,2], main='Goldfeld-Quandt test',ylab='2-sided p-value',xlab='breakpoint')
grid()
dev.off()
}
load(file='createtable')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
myeq <- colnames(x)[1]
myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t] = ', sep='')
for (i in 1:k){
if (mysum$coefficients[i,1] > 0) myeq <- paste(myeq, '+', '')
myeq <- paste(myeq, mysum$coefficients[i,1], sep=' ')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != '(Intercept)') {
myeq <- paste(myeq, rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i], sep='')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != 't') myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t]', sep='')
}
}
myeq <- paste(myeq, ' + e[t]')
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, myeq)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable1.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/ols1.htm','Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares',''), 6, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Variable',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Parameter',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'S.D.',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'T-STAT<br />H0: parameter = 0',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'1-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:k){
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i],header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,mysum$coefficients[i,1])
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,2],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,3],4))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4]/2,6))
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable2.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple R',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sqrt(mysum$r.squared))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Adjusted R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$adj.r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (value)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[1])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF numerator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[2])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF denominator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'p-value',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 1-pf(mysum$fstatistic[1],mysum$fstatistic[2],mysum$fstatistic[3]))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residual Standard Deviation',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$sigma)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Sum Squared Residuals',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sum(myerror*myerror))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable3.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals', 4, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Time or Index', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Actuals', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Interpolation<br />Forecast', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residuals<br />Prediction Error', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:n) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,i, 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,x[i])
a<-table.element(a,x[i]-mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.element(a,mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable4.tab')
if (n > n25) {
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'p-values',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Alternative Hypothesis',3,header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'breakpoint index',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'greater',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-sided',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'less',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,mypoint,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,1])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable5.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Description',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'# significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'% significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'OK/NOK',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'1% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant1/numgqtests < 0.01) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'5% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant5/numgqtests < 0.05) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'10% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant10/numgqtests < 0.1) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable6.tab')
}
 





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Software written by Ed van Stee & Patrick Wessa


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