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Science Experiment MR

*The author of this computation has been verified*
R Software Module: /rwasp_multipleregression.wasp (opens new window with default values)
Title produced by software: Multiple Regression
Date of computation: Wed, 15 Dec 2010 19:03:30 +0000
 
Cite this page as follows:
Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/15/t12924398151re7ki30sx0emcl.htm/, Retrieved Wed, 15 Dec 2010 20:03:45 +0100
 
BibTeX entries for LaTeX users:
@Manual{KEY,
    author = {{YOUR NAME}},
    publisher = {Office for Research Development and Education},
    title = {Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/15/t12924398151re7ki30sx0emcl.htm/},
    year = {2010},
}
@Manual{R,
    title = {R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing},
    author = {{R Development Core Team}},
    organization = {R Foundation for Statistical Computing},
    address = {Vienna, Austria},
    year = {2010},
    note = {{ISBN} 3-900051-07-0},
    url = {http://www.R-project.org},
}
 
Original text written by user:
 
IsPrivate?
No (this computation is public)
 
User-defined keywords:
 
Dataseries X:
» Textbox « » Textfile « » CSV «
6.3 0.301029996 0.653212514 0 0.819543936 1.62324929 3 1 3 2.1 0.255272505 1.838849091 3.406028945 3.663040975 2.79518459 3 5 4 9.1 -0.15490196 1.431363764 1.02325246 2.254064453 2.255272505 4 4 4 15.8 0.591064607 1.278753601 -1.638272164 -0.522878745 1.544068044 1 1 1 5.2 0 1.482873584 2.204119983 2.227886705 2.593286067 4 5 4 10.9 0.556302501 1.447158031 0.51851394 1.408239965 1.799340549 1 2 1 8.3 0.146128036 1.698970004 1.717337583 2.643452676 2.361727836 1 1 1 11 0.176091259 0.84509804 -0.37161107 0.806179974 2.049218023 5 4 4 3.2 -0.15490196 1.477121255 2.667452953 2.626340367 2.44870632 5 5 5 6.3 0.322219295 0.544068044 -1.124938737 0.079181246 1.62324929 1 1 1 6.6 0.612783857 0.77815125 -0.105130343 0.544068044 1.62324929 2 2 2 9.5 0.079181246 1.017033339 -0.698970004 0.698970004 2.079181246 2 2 2 3.3 -0.301029996 1.301029996 1.441852176 2.06069784 2.170261715 5 5 5 11 0.531478917 0.591064607 -0.920818754 0 1.204119983 3 1 2 4.7 0.176091259 1.612783857 1.929418926 2.511883361 2.491361694 etc...
 
Output produced by software:

Enter (or paste) a matrix (table) containing all data (time) series. Every column represents a different variable and must be delimited by a space or Tab. Every row represents a period in time (or category) and must be delimited by hard returns. The easiest way to enter data is to copy and paste a block of spreadsheet cells. Please, do not use commas or spaces to seperate groups of digits!


Summary of computational transaction
Raw Inputview raw input (R code)
Raw Outputview raw output of R engine
Computing time8 seconds
R Server'George Udny Yule' @ 72.249.76.132


Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation
SWS[t] = + 7.19519299579455 + 3.36679474202788PS[t] + 3.43730615240639L[t] -1.65097896744842Wb[t] -0.880440616381254Wbr[t] -0.315657209275309Tg[t] + 1.33733451027365P[t] + 0.314979429813487S[t] -1.8837396565904D[t] + e[t]


Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares
VariableParameterS.D.T-STAT
H0: parameter = 0
2-tail p-value1-tail p-value
(Intercept)7.195192995794554.5167291.5930.1216410.060821
PS3.366794742027882.7451371.22650.2295660.114783
L3.437306152406391.7820171.92890.0632540.031627
Wb-1.650978967448421.157343-1.42650.1640420.082021
Wbr-0.8804406163812541.620254-0.54340.5908720.295436
Tg-0.3156572092753091.911325-0.16520.8699330.434967
P1.337334510273650.9937341.34580.1884610.09423
S0.3149794298134870.6260660.50310.6185620.309281
D-1.88373965659041.344971-1.40060.1715990.085799


Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.827535230258193
R-squared0.684814557318481
Adjusted R-squared0.600765105936743
F-TEST (value)8.14775761245805
F-TEST (DF numerator)8
F-TEST (DF denominator)30
p-value8.60521098511313e-06
Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics
Residual Standard Deviation2.50737645315805
Sum Squared Residuals188.608100335543


Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals
Time or IndexActualsInterpolation
Forecast
Residuals
Prediction Error
16.37.89580447858142-1.59580447858142
22.12.69658009911775-0.596580099117745
39.16.282171286356562.81782871364344
415.816.0269484710272-0.226948471027212
55.25.26249293291376-0.0624929329137551
610.911.4621261596098-0.562126159609779
78.37.387442679308670.912557320691332
81110.36142648233330.638573517666651
93.23.104662029566520.0953379704334817
106.311.1938874110275-4.89388741102751
116.610.6523611499443-4.05236114994431
129.510.3770581634728-0.877058163472793
133.34.616748165744-1.31674816574400
141112.7159103188329-1.71591031883285
154.77.54681065752132-2.84681065752132
1610.414.2719906123763-3.87199061237634
177.48.73478335079519-1.33478335079519
182.13.66476364640126-1.56476364640126
1917.916.01722595513011.88277404486992
206.18.30425895410857-2.20425895410858
2111.911.9797381420859-0.0797381420859159
2213.811.79778165229662.00221834770342
2314.310.28522614571754.01477385428248
2415.210.10207487977005.09792512022995
25106.432968015682583.56703198431742
2611.99.440929683695522.45907031630448
276.55.722241811106310.777758188893687
287.58.11768636346933-0.61768636346933
2910.69.82822959325760.771770406742397
307.48.57552835820276-1.17552835820276
318.48.283528186247080.116471813752919
325.77.98733730490201-2.28733730490201
334.95.02211161876452-0.122111618764523
343.24.22072100537454-1.02072100537454
35119.02941590617041.97058409382961
364.95.68237661528557-0.782376615285571
3713.211.45780871462671.74219128537329
389.76.638918931498843.06108106850116
3912.810.91992406767691.88007593232306


Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
p-valuesAlternative Hypothesis
breakpoint indexgreater2-sidedless
120.02971582989324410.05943165978648830.970284170106756
130.06056893345689770.1211378669137950.939431066543102
140.02477397692652430.04954795385304860.975226023073476
150.01517949254067720.03035898508135440.984820507459323
160.4503767114883590.9007534229767170.549623288511641
170.3420661271069460.6841322542138920.657933872893054
180.3294196036823060.6588392073646130.670580396317694
190.2292751605357540.4585503210715070.770724839464246
200.4636319164084680.9272638328169360.536368083591532
210.4895874730933270.9791749461866530.510412526906673
220.6222292589183950.755541482163210.377770741081605
230.7270304592857870.5459390814284260.272969540714213
240.8444701636232060.3110596727535880.155529836376794
250.9162012654186290.1675974691627420.0837987345813711
260.8841106970143140.2317786059713710.115889302985686
270.80626565763670.38746868472660.1937343423633


Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
Description# significant tests% significant testsOK/NOK
1% type I error level00OK
5% type I error level20.125NOK
10% type I error level30.1875NOK
 
Charts produced by software:
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/15/t12924398151re7ki30sx0emcl/105i531292439801.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/15/t12924398151re7ki30sx0emcl/105i531292439801.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/15/t12924398151re7ki30sx0emcl/1r98v1292439801.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/15/t12924398151re7ki30sx0emcl/1r98v1292439801.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/15/t12924398151re7ki30sx0emcl/2r98v1292439801.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/15/t12924398151re7ki30sx0emcl/2r98v1292439801.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/15/t12924398151re7ki30sx0emcl/3r98v1292439801.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/15/t12924398151re7ki30sx0emcl/3r98v1292439801.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/15/t12924398151re7ki30sx0emcl/4kipy1292439801.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/15/t12924398151re7ki30sx0emcl/4kipy1292439801.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/15/t12924398151re7ki30sx0emcl/5kipy1292439801.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/15/t12924398151re7ki30sx0emcl/5kipy1292439801.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/15/t12924398151re7ki30sx0emcl/6kipy1292439801.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/15/t12924398151re7ki30sx0emcl/6kipy1292439801.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/15/t12924398151re7ki30sx0emcl/7u9611292439801.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/15/t12924398151re7ki30sx0emcl/7u9611292439801.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/15/t12924398151re7ki30sx0emcl/85i531292439801.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/15/t12924398151re7ki30sx0emcl/85i531292439801.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/15/t12924398151re7ki30sx0emcl/95i531292439801.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/15/t12924398151re7ki30sx0emcl/95i531292439801.ps (open in new window)


 
Parameters (Session):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Do not include Seasonal Dummies ; par3 = No Linear Trend ;
 
Parameters (R input):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Do not include Seasonal Dummies ; par3 = No Linear Trend ;
 
R code (references can be found in the software module):
library(lattice)
library(lmtest)
n25 <- 25 #minimum number of obs. for Goldfeld-Quandt test
par1 <- as.numeric(par1)
x <- t(y)
k <- length(x[1,])
n <- length(x[,1])
x1 <- cbind(x[,par1], x[,1:k!=par1])
mycolnames <- c(colnames(x)[par1], colnames(x)[1:k!=par1])
colnames(x1) <- mycolnames #colnames(x)[par1]
x <- x1
if (par3 == 'First Differences'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n-1,k), dimnames=list(1:(n-1), paste('(1-B)',colnames(x),sep='')))
for (i in 1:n-1) {
for (j in 1:k) {
x2[i,j] <- x[i+1,j] - x[i,j]
}
}
x <- x2
}
if (par2 == 'Include Monthly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,11), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('M', seq(1:11), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:11){
x2[seq(i,n,12),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
if (par2 == 'Include Quarterly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,3), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('Q', seq(1:3), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:3){
x2[seq(i,n,4),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
k <- length(x[1,])
if (par3 == 'Linear Trend'){
x <- cbind(x, c(1:n))
colnames(x)[k+1] <- 't'
}
x
k <- length(x[1,])
df <- as.data.frame(x)
(mylm <- lm(df))
(mysum <- summary(mylm))
if (n > n25) {
kp3 <- k + 3
nmkm3 <- n - k - 3
gqarr <- array(NA, dim=c(nmkm3-kp3+1,3))
numgqtests <- 0
numsignificant1 <- 0
numsignificant5 <- 0
numsignificant10 <- 0
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
j <- 0
numgqtests <- numgqtests + 1
for (myalt in c('greater', 'two.sided', 'less')) {
j <- j + 1
gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,j] <- gqtest(mylm, point=mypoint, alternative=myalt)$p.value
}
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.01) numsignificant1 <- numsignificant1 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.05) numsignificant5 <- numsignificant5 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.10) numsignificant10 <- numsignificant10 + 1
}
gqarr
}
bitmap(file='test0.png')
plot(x[,1], type='l', main='Actuals and Interpolation', ylab='value of Actuals and Interpolation (dots)', xlab='time or index')
points(x[,1]-mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test1.png')
plot(mysum$resid, type='b', pch=19, main='Residuals', ylab='value of Residuals', xlab='time or index')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test2.png')
hist(mysum$resid, main='Residual Histogram', xlab='values of Residuals')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test3.png')
densityplot(~mysum$resid,col='black',main='Residual Density Plot', xlab='values of Residuals')
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test4.png')
qqnorm(mysum$resid, main='Residual Normal Q-Q Plot')
qqline(mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
(myerror <- as.ts(mysum$resid))
bitmap(file='test5.png')
dum <- cbind(lag(myerror,k=1),myerror)
dum
dum1 <- dum[2:length(myerror),]
dum1
z <- as.data.frame(dum1)
z
plot(z,main=paste('Residual Lag plot, lowess, and regression line'), ylab='values of Residuals', xlab='lagged values of Residuals')
lines(lowess(z))
abline(lm(z))
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test6.png')
acf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test7.png')
pacf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Partial Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test8.png')
opar <- par(mfrow = c(2,2), oma = c(0, 0, 1.1, 0))
plot(mylm, las = 1, sub='Residual Diagnostics')
par(opar)
dev.off()
if (n > n25) {
bitmap(file='test9.png')
plot(kp3:nmkm3,gqarr[,2], main='Goldfeld-Quandt test',ylab='2-sided p-value',xlab='breakpoint')
grid()
dev.off()
}
load(file='createtable')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
myeq <- colnames(x)[1]
myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t] = ', sep='')
for (i in 1:k){
if (mysum$coefficients[i,1] > 0) myeq <- paste(myeq, '+', '')
myeq <- paste(myeq, mysum$coefficients[i,1], sep=' ')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != '(Intercept)') {
myeq <- paste(myeq, rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i], sep='')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != 't') myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t]', sep='')
}
}
myeq <- paste(myeq, ' + e[t]')
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, myeq)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable1.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/ols1.htm','Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares',''), 6, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Variable',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Parameter',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'S.D.',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'T-STAT<br />H0: parameter = 0',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'1-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:k){
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i],header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,mysum$coefficients[i,1])
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,2],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,3],4))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4]/2,6))
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable2.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple R',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sqrt(mysum$r.squared))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Adjusted R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$adj.r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (value)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[1])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF numerator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[2])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF denominator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'p-value',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 1-pf(mysum$fstatistic[1],mysum$fstatistic[2],mysum$fstatistic[3]))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residual Standard Deviation',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$sigma)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Sum Squared Residuals',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sum(myerror*myerror))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable3.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals', 4, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Time or Index', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Actuals', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Interpolation<br />Forecast', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residuals<br />Prediction Error', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:n) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,i, 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,x[i])
a<-table.element(a,x[i]-mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.element(a,mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable4.tab')
if (n > n25) {
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'p-values',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Alternative Hypothesis',3,header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'breakpoint index',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'greater',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-sided',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'less',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,mypoint,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,1])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable5.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Description',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'# significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'% significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'OK/NOK',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'1% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant1/numgqtests < 0.01) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'5% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant5/numgqtests < 0.05) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'10% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant10/numgqtests < 0.1) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable6.tab')
}
 





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