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Paper Multiple Regression

*The author of this computation has been verified*
R Software Module: /rwasp_multipleregression.wasp (opens new window with default values)
Title produced by software: Multiple Regression
Date of computation: Mon, 13 Dec 2010 14:36:13 +0000
 
Cite this page as follows:
Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/13/t1292250908sctcqrhef2mjz54.htm/, Retrieved Mon, 13 Dec 2010 15:35:08 +0100
 
BibTeX entries for LaTeX users:
@Manual{KEY,
    author = {{YOUR NAME}},
    publisher = {Office for Research Development and Education},
    title = {Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/13/t1292250908sctcqrhef2mjz54.htm/},
    year = {2010},
}
@Manual{R,
    title = {R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing},
    author = {{R Development Core Team}},
    organization = {R Foundation for Statistical Computing},
    address = {Vienna, Austria},
    year = {2010},
    note = {{ISBN} 3-900051-07-0},
    url = {http://www.R-project.org},
}
 
Original text written by user:
 
IsPrivate?
No (this computation is public)
 
User-defined keywords:
 
Dataseries X:
» Textbox « » Textfile « » CSV «
3 11 6 12 2 2 12 6 7 1 -7 39 4 11 -8 -1 19 6 9 -1 0 14 5 13 1 -3 15 4 12 -1 4 7 5 5 2 2 12 5 13 2 3 12 4 11 1 0 14 3 8 -1 -10 9 2 8 -2 -10 8 3 8 -2 -9 4 2 8 -1 -22 7 -1 0 -8 -16 3 0 3 -4 -18 5 -2 0 -6 -14 0 1 -1 -3 -12 -2 -4 -1 -3 -17 6 -2 -4 -7 -23 11 -2 1 -9 -28 9 -6 -1 -11 -31 17 -4 0 -13 -21 21 -2 -1 -11 -19 21 0 6 -9 -22 41 -5 0 -17 -22 57 -4 -3 -22 -25 65 -5 -3 -25 -16 68 -1 4 -20 -22 73 -2 1 -24 -21 71 -4 0 -24 -10 71 -1 -4 -22 -7 70 1 -2 -19 -5 69 1 3 -18 -4 65 -2 2 -17 7 57 1 5 -11 6 57 1 6 -11 3 57 3 6 -12 10 55 3 3 -10 0 65 1 4 -15 -2 65 1 7 -15 -1 64 0 5 -15 2 60 2 6 -13 8 43 2 1 -8 -6 47 -1 3 -13 -4 40 1 6 -9 4 31 0 0 -7 7 27 1 3 -4 3 24 1 4 -4 3 23 3 7 -2 8 17 2 6 0
 
Output produced by software:

Enter (or paste) a matrix (table) containing all data (time) series. Every column represents a different variable and must be delimited by a space or Tab. Every row represents a period in time (or category) and must be delimited by hard returns. The easiest way to enter data is to copy and paste a block of spreadsheet cells. Please, do not use commas or spaces to seperate groups of digits!


Summary of computational transaction
Raw Inputview raw input (R code)
Raw Outputview raw output of R engine
Computing time5 seconds
R Server'Sir Ronald Aylmer Fisher' @ 193.190.124.24


Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation
indicator[t] = + 0.269947045983855 + 0.258970092398895economical[t] -0.254850177345353unemployement[t] + 0.237994998300893financial[t] + 0.225051492669513capacity[t] + e[t]


Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares
VariableParameterS.D.T-STAT
H0: parameter = 0
2-tail p-value1-tail p-value
(Intercept)0.2699470459838550.1301032.07490.0437460.021873
economical0.2589700923988950.00692837.381200
unemployement-0.2548501773453530.002067-123.320500
financial0.2379949983008930.0342496.948900
capacity0.2250514926695130.01725113.046100


Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.999221162082563
R-squared0.998442930753627
Adjusted R-squared0.998304524598394
F-TEST (value)7213.86219472357
F-TEST (DF numerator)4
F-TEST (DF denominator)45
p-value0
Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics
Residual Standard Deviation0.320567936851966
Sum Squared Residuals4.62437109618868


Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals
Time or IndexActualsInterpolation
Forecast
Residuals
Prediction Error
122.37209327422117-0.372093274221165
210.733015541129350.26698445887065
3-8-8.054454104708990.054454104708986
4-1-1.377742992145780.377742992145784
510.8176889593570370.182311040642963
6-1-0.677117986155409-0.322882013844591
721.837108629013990.162891370986010
821.845329498845530.154670501154466
911.41620160760451-0.416201607604511
10-1-0.783558500592313-0.216441499407687
11-2-2.337003536155390.337003536155393
12-2-1.84415836050915-0.155841639490853
13-1-0.803782557029731-0.196217442970269
14-8-7.44934122651021-0.550658773489789
15-4-3.96297048642599-0.0370295135740053
16-6-6.141755500524810.141755500524815
17-3-3.34269074196930.342690741969302
18-3-3.505025193985270.505025193985268
19-7-7.037841556149320.0378415561493239
20-9-8.7406555339219-0.259344466078099
21-11-10.9278886197683-0.072111380231732
22-13-13.04255882645650.0425588264564821
23-11-11.22132010791670.221320107916668
24-9-8.6520294778305-0.347970522169498
25-17-17.06622724945580.0662272494557975
26-22-21.5809895666891-0.419010433310902
27-25-24.6346962609495-0.365303739050497
28-20-20.54117551950530.541175519505344
29-24-24.28239643693490.282396436934915
30-24-24.21476747911660.214767479116610
31-22-21.5523174385041-0.447682561495867
32-19-19.59446400202130.594464002021282
33-18-17.6964161765306-0.303583823469426
34-17-17.35708186232250.357081862322457
35-11-11.08046995426060.0804699542605642
36-11-11.11438855398990.114388553989947
37-12-11.4153088345848-0.58469116541515
38-10-9.76797231111041-0.232027688889588
39-15-15.15711351248520.157113512485171
40-15-14.9998992192744-0.000100780725575256
41-15-15.17417693317010.174176933170095
42-13-12.6768244573207-0.323175542679303
43-8-7.91580835140388-0.0841916485961194
44-13-12.8246723639335-0.175327636066517
45-9-9.37163646310790.371636463107894
46-7-6.59452808212652-0.40547191787348
47-4-3.88506761923899-0.114932380761012
48-4-3.931345964129-0.0686540358710028
49-2-2.525351312173320.525351312173321
500-0.1644462770771290.164446277077129


Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
p-valuesAlternative Hypothesis
breakpoint indexgreater2-sidedless
80.6449225851151480.7101548297697040.355077414884852
90.5450984401735790.9098031196528430.454901559826421
100.4005639410267020.8011278820534030.599436058973298
110.302766452096920.605532904193840.69723354790308
120.3975017938113070.7950035876226130.602498206188693
130.3107904944355670.6215809888711340.689209505564433
140.4225437125156510.8450874250313020.577456287484349
150.3710042370890280.7420084741780560.628995762910972
160.4106945677158620.8213891354317230.589305432284138
170.3829730461285020.7659460922570040.617026953871498
180.5237717955495140.9524564089009720.476228204450486
190.4689887501954210.9379775003908420.531011249804579
200.4091426081276090.8182852162552180.590857391872391
210.3220645269310600.6441290538621190.67793547306894
220.2595118699746320.5190237399492640.740488130025368
230.2206239340327830.4412478680655670.779376065967217
240.2518226968874970.5036453937749940.748177303112503
250.1865155061922960.3730310123845920.813484493807704
260.2498769986178710.4997539972357420.750123001382129
270.2837942150048980.5675884300097970.716205784995102
280.4371778251753130.8743556503506260.562822174824687
290.3799749611545550.759949922309110.620025038845445
300.3021128542500840.6042257085001680.697887145749916
310.4343009397861580.8686018795723160.565699060213842
320.7807933078059060.4384133843881880.219206692194094
330.7335736485495920.5328527029008160.266426351450408
340.7586710533731430.4826578932537150.241328946626857
350.6780225119744040.6439549760511930.321977488025596
360.5858531288640660.8282937422718680.414146871135934
370.8876757673531930.2246484652936130.112324232646807
380.830693071156270.3386138576874610.169306928843731
390.8051882273012330.3896235453975340.194811772698767
400.6978976764569760.6042046470860480.302102323543024
410.9096721479881380.1806557040237240.0903278520118622
420.9937607316260180.01247853674796320.00623926837398161


Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
Description# significant tests% significant testsOK/NOK
1% type I error level00OK
5% type I error level10.0285714285714286OK
10% type I error level10.0285714285714286OK
 
Charts produced by software:
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/13/t1292250908sctcqrhef2mjz54/106bre1292250961.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/13/t1292250908sctcqrhef2mjz54/106bre1292250961.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/13/t1292250908sctcqrhef2mjz54/1zau21292250961.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/13/t1292250908sctcqrhef2mjz54/1zau21292250961.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/13/t1292250908sctcqrhef2mjz54/2zau21292250961.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/13/t1292250908sctcqrhef2mjz54/2zau21292250961.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/13/t1292250908sctcqrhef2mjz54/3skbn1292250961.png (open in new window)
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http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/13/t1292250908sctcqrhef2mjz54/4skbn1292250961.png (open in new window)
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http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/13/t1292250908sctcqrhef2mjz54/7ekab1292250961.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/13/t1292250908sctcqrhef2mjz54/7ekab1292250961.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/13/t1292250908sctcqrhef2mjz54/8ekab1292250961.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/13/t1292250908sctcqrhef2mjz54/8ekab1292250961.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/13/t1292250908sctcqrhef2mjz54/9ekab1292250961.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/13/t1292250908sctcqrhef2mjz54/9ekab1292250961.ps (open in new window)


 
Parameters (Session):
par1 = 5 ; par2 = Do not include Seasonal Dummies ; par3 = No Linear Trend ;
 
Parameters (R input):
par1 = 5 ; par2 = Do not include Seasonal Dummies ; par3 = No Linear Trend ;
 
R code (references can be found in the software module):
library(lattice)
library(lmtest)
n25 <- 25 #minimum number of obs. for Goldfeld-Quandt test
par1 <- as.numeric(par1)
x <- t(y)
k <- length(x[1,])
n <- length(x[,1])
x1 <- cbind(x[,par1], x[,1:k!=par1])
mycolnames <- c(colnames(x)[par1], colnames(x)[1:k!=par1])
colnames(x1) <- mycolnames #colnames(x)[par1]
x <- x1
if (par3 == 'First Differences'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n-1,k), dimnames=list(1:(n-1), paste('(1-B)',colnames(x),sep='')))
for (i in 1:n-1) {
for (j in 1:k) {
x2[i,j] <- x[i+1,j] - x[i,j]
}
}
x <- x2
}
if (par2 == 'Include Monthly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,11), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('M', seq(1:11), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:11){
x2[seq(i,n,12),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
if (par2 == 'Include Quarterly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,3), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('Q', seq(1:3), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:3){
x2[seq(i,n,4),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
k <- length(x[1,])
if (par3 == 'Linear Trend'){
x <- cbind(x, c(1:n))
colnames(x)[k+1] <- 't'
}
x
k <- length(x[1,])
df <- as.data.frame(x)
(mylm <- lm(df))
(mysum <- summary(mylm))
if (n > n25) {
kp3 <- k + 3
nmkm3 <- n - k - 3
gqarr <- array(NA, dim=c(nmkm3-kp3+1,3))
numgqtests <- 0
numsignificant1 <- 0
numsignificant5 <- 0
numsignificant10 <- 0
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
j <- 0
numgqtests <- numgqtests + 1
for (myalt in c('greater', 'two.sided', 'less')) {
j <- j + 1
gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,j] <- gqtest(mylm, point=mypoint, alternative=myalt)$p.value
}
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.01) numsignificant1 <- numsignificant1 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.05) numsignificant5 <- numsignificant5 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.10) numsignificant10 <- numsignificant10 + 1
}
gqarr
}
bitmap(file='test0.png')
plot(x[,1], type='l', main='Actuals and Interpolation', ylab='value of Actuals and Interpolation (dots)', xlab='time or index')
points(x[,1]-mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test1.png')
plot(mysum$resid, type='b', pch=19, main='Residuals', ylab='value of Residuals', xlab='time or index')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test2.png')
hist(mysum$resid, main='Residual Histogram', xlab='values of Residuals')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test3.png')
densityplot(~mysum$resid,col='black',main='Residual Density Plot', xlab='values of Residuals')
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test4.png')
qqnorm(mysum$resid, main='Residual Normal Q-Q Plot')
qqline(mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
(myerror <- as.ts(mysum$resid))
bitmap(file='test5.png')
dum <- cbind(lag(myerror,k=1),myerror)
dum
dum1 <- dum[2:length(myerror),]
dum1
z <- as.data.frame(dum1)
z
plot(z,main=paste('Residual Lag plot, lowess, and regression line'), ylab='values of Residuals', xlab='lagged values of Residuals')
lines(lowess(z))
abline(lm(z))
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test6.png')
acf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test7.png')
pacf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Partial Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test8.png')
opar <- par(mfrow = c(2,2), oma = c(0, 0, 1.1, 0))
plot(mylm, las = 1, sub='Residual Diagnostics')
par(opar)
dev.off()
if (n > n25) {
bitmap(file='test9.png')
plot(kp3:nmkm3,gqarr[,2], main='Goldfeld-Quandt test',ylab='2-sided p-value',xlab='breakpoint')
grid()
dev.off()
}
load(file='createtable')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
myeq <- colnames(x)[1]
myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t] = ', sep='')
for (i in 1:k){
if (mysum$coefficients[i,1] > 0) myeq <- paste(myeq, '+', '')
myeq <- paste(myeq, mysum$coefficients[i,1], sep=' ')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != '(Intercept)') {
myeq <- paste(myeq, rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i], sep='')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != 't') myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t]', sep='')
}
}
myeq <- paste(myeq, ' + e[t]')
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, myeq)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable1.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/ols1.htm','Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares',''), 6, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Variable',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Parameter',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'S.D.',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'T-STAT<br />H0: parameter = 0',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'1-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:k){
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i],header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,mysum$coefficients[i,1])
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,2],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,3],4))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4]/2,6))
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable2.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple R',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sqrt(mysum$r.squared))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Adjusted R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$adj.r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (value)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[1])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF numerator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[2])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF denominator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'p-value',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 1-pf(mysum$fstatistic[1],mysum$fstatistic[2],mysum$fstatistic[3]))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residual Standard Deviation',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$sigma)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Sum Squared Residuals',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sum(myerror*myerror))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable3.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals', 4, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Time or Index', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Actuals', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Interpolation<br />Forecast', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residuals<br />Prediction Error', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:n) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,i, 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,x[i])
a<-table.element(a,x[i]-mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.element(a,mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable4.tab')
if (n > n25) {
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'p-values',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Alternative Hypothesis',3,header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'breakpoint index',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'greater',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-sided',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'less',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,mypoint,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,1])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable5.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Description',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'# significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'% significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'OK/NOK',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'1% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant1/numgqtests < 0.01) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'5% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant5/numgqtests < 0.05) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'10% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant10/numgqtests < 0.1) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable6.tab')
}
 





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Software written by Ed van Stee & Patrick Wessa


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