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WS 7.5

*The author of this computation has been verified*
R Software Module: /rwasp_multipleregression.wasp (opens new window with default values)
Title produced by software: Multiple Regression
Date of computation: Fri, 20 Nov 2009 13:26:33 -0700
 
Cite this page as follows:
Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258748852d5neeajxj0xca6o.htm/, Retrieved Fri, 20 Nov 2009 21:27:44 +0100
 
BibTeX entries for LaTeX users:
@Manual{KEY,
    author = {{YOUR NAME}},
    publisher = {Office for Research Development and Education},
    title = {Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258748852d5neeajxj0xca6o.htm/},
    year = {2009},
}
@Manual{R,
    title = {R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing},
    author = {{R Development Core Team}},
    organization = {R Foundation for Statistical Computing},
    address = {Vienna, Austria},
    year = {2009},
    note = {{ISBN} 3-900051-07-0},
    url = {http://www.R-project.org},
}
 
Original text written by user:
 
IsPrivate?
No (this computation is public)
 
User-defined keywords:
 
Dataseries X:
» Textbox « » Textfile « » CSV «
96,3 94,0 96,2 100,0 107,2 91,1 96,3 96,2 114,9 93,1 107,2 96,3 92,6 93,9 114,9 107,2 115,0 92,6 92,6 114,9 107,1 94,4 115,0 92,6 117,8 96,3 107,1 115,0 107,4 100,4 117,8 107,1 106,3 101,5 107,4 117,8 114,5 99,4 106,3 107,4 98,0 99,7 114,5 106,3 103,1 101,7 98,0 114,5 100,3 103,7 103,1 98,0 104,6 103,1 100,3 103,1 111,2 101,0 104,6 100,3 105,0 102,3 111,2 104,6 109,9 101,6 105,0 111,2 111,5 99,6 109,9 105,0 132,5 95,7 111,5 109,9 100,3 96,6 132,5 111,5 123,1 96,3 100,3 132,5 114,2 95,4 123,1 100,3 104,6 96,0 114,2 123,1 109,1 96,9 104,6 114,2 107,0 94,9 109,1 104,6 133,7 92,5 107,0 109,1 124,9 94,0 133,7 107,0 122,5 93,5 124,9 133,7 116,8 92,3 122,5 124,9 116,0 90,4 116,8 122,5 129,8 90,4 116,0 116,8 125,2 91,0 129,8 116,0 143,8 89,1 125,2 129,8 127,9 89,7 143,8 125,2 130,3 87,9 127,9 143,8 108,4 85,9 130,3 127,9 129,4 83,2 108,4 130,3 143,7 83,9 129,4 108,4 131,9 83,0 143,7 129,4 117,6 82,8 131,9 143,7 119,0 78,7 117,6 131,9 104,8 77,6 119,0 117,6 134,6 78,5 104,8 11 etc...
 
Output produced by software:

Enter (or paste) a matrix (table) containing all data (time) series. Every column represents a different variable and must be delimited by a space or Tab. Every row represents a period in time (or category) and must be delimited by hard returns. The easiest way to enter data is to copy and paste a block of spreadsheet cells. Please, do not use commas or spaces to seperate groups of digits!


Summary of computational transaction
Raw Inputview raw input (R code)
Raw Outputview raw output of R engine
Computing time3 seconds
R Server'Gwilym Jenkins' @ 72.249.127.135


Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation
Y[t] = + 56.6688184694744 -0.414546054148085X[t] + 0.33464476226903Y1[t] + 0.436658336644705Y2[t] + 13.8710231589707M1[t] + 21.8094757766993M2[t] + 13.4085304100481M3[t] + 4.64011859452247M4[t] + 4.34174638169133M5[t] + 4.82811135206612M6[t] + 23.9529557196014M7[t] + 7.17288389240209M8[t] + 11.3657529755177M9[t] + 16.1462848792535M10[t] + 5.96354837739477M11[t] -0.0685256950949151t + e[t]


Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares
VariableParameterS.D.T-STAT
H0: parameter = 0
2-tail p-value1-tail p-value
(Intercept)56.668818469474435.4952381.59650.1178710.058935
X-0.4145460541480850.284414-1.45750.1524030.076202
Y10.334644762269030.1414992.3650.0227260.011363
Y20.4366583366447050.1611092.71030.0096920.004846
M113.87102315897077.7877961.78110.0821250.041063
M221.80947577669938.0761362.70050.0099380.004969
M313.40853041004817.8593731.70610.0953830.047692
M44.640118594522477.6538530.60620.5476140.273807
M54.341746381691337.7077790.56330.576230.288115
M64.828111352066127.8727390.61330.5430050.271503
M723.95295571960148.0334312.98170.0047550.002378
M87.172883892402098.3355850.86050.3943920.197196
M911.36575297551777.7797511.46090.1514730.075737
M1016.14628487925358.0218622.01280.0505770.025289
M115.963548377394778.1066280.73560.4660390.23302
t-0.06852569509491510.145264-0.47170.639560.31978


Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.783083562088961
R-squared0.613219865213936
Adjusted R-squared0.475084102790342
F-TEST (value)4.43925493626692
F-TEST (DF numerator)15
F-TEST (DF denominator)42
p-value6.60816942024134e-05
Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics
Residual Standard Deviation11.3831582891788
Sum Squared Residuals5442.20429073303


Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals
Time or IndexActualsInterpolation
Forecast
Residuals
Prediction Error
196.3107.362646638182-11.0626466381815
2107.2114.808919914822-7.6089199148215
3114.9109.2016504871765.69834951282385
492.6107.369416672136-14.7694166721359
5115103.44111962816711.5588803718328
6107.1100.871337773636.22866222637008
7117.8126.277472062105-8.47747206210496
8107.4107.860333814589-0.460333814589034
9106.3112.720615217547-6.42061521754726
10114.5113.3938122002981.10618779970174
1198105.281949067397-7.28194906739706
12103.196.47974266965886.6202573303412
13100.3103.954973758173-3.65497375817286
14104.6113.36358049583-8.7635804958301
15111.2105.9809852829475.21901471705336
16105100.6914241804814.30857581951862
17109.9101.4218560062468.47814399375395
18111.5101.6012650377439.89873496225682
19132.5124.9493707905517.55062920944943
20100.3115.453875165804-15.1538751658042
21123.1118.0968460945455.00315390545463
22114.2116.751445891694-2.55144589169392
23104.6113.228927753556-8.62892775355634
24109.199.72491331841289.37508668158718
25107111.670484289006-4.67048428900626
26133.7121.79753025573211.9024697442685
27124.9120.7242727583934.17572724160745
28122.5120.8085119552921.69148804470785
29116.8116.2933285204250.506671479575255
30116114.5433501457051.45664985429479
31129.8130.843000489456-1.04300048945553
32125.2118.0144463846697.18555361533069
33143.8127.41294641483116.3870535851693
34127.9136.091989220621-8.1919892206211
35130.3129.3879032626480.912096737352066
36108.4118.045201175249-9.6452011752493
37129.4126.6862326995802.71376730041953
38143.7131.73069981944111.9693001805589
39131.9137.589565376414-5.68956537641419
40117.6131.130943095868-13.5309430958680
41119122.525695537094-3.52569553709440
42104.8117.623823925095-12.8238239250945
43134.6132.1664171958842.43358280411601
44140.4119.04823060343721.3517693965628
45143.8138.5819327041935.21806729580663
46153.4145.2647106350818.13528936491888
47153.3138.30121991639914.9987800836013
48127.3133.650142836679-6.35014283667909
49153.6136.92566261505916.6743373849411
50136.9144.399269514176-7.49926951417574
51131.8141.203526095070-9.40352609507046
52144.3121.99970409622322.3002959037774
53107.4124.418000308068-17.0180003080676
54113.6118.360223117827-4.76022311782716
55124.2124.663739462005-0.46373946200495
56102.1115.023114031500-12.9231140315002
5796.4116.587659568883-20.1876595688832
58111.7110.1980420523061.50195794769441


Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
p-valuesAlternative Hypothesis
breakpoint indexgreater2-sidedless
190.05172491403799580.1034498280759920.948275085962004
200.02172297419265880.04344594838531760.978277025807341
210.01024765066187710.02049530132375410.989752349338123
220.003194097621501880.006388195243003760.996805902378498
230.001225808358898250.00245161671779650.998774191641102
240.0004083085771414720.0008166171542829440.999591691422859
250.0001539230044177580.0003078460088355150.999846076995582
260.007205532891361220.01441106578272240.992794467108639
270.007329870141905390.01465974028381080.992670129858095
280.004914355817323510.009828711634647020.995085644182677
290.0026725513264060.0053451026528120.997327448673594
300.002623134479208070.005246268958416140.997376865520792
310.001656690497932320.003313380995864640.998343309502068
320.0008018772984579710.001603754596915940.999198122701542
330.002747889832620780.005495779665241560.99725211016738
340.001711605631205880.003423211262411760.998288394368794
350.002298722918491420.004597445836982850.997701277081509
360.003764894214581750.00752978842916350.996235105785418
370.002503083575201160.005006167150402310.997496916424799
380.001438926281937050.002877852563874110.998561073718063
390.002195740193364800.004391480386729610.997804259806635


Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
Description# significant tests% significant testsOK/NOK
1% type I error level160.761904761904762NOK
5% type I error level200.952380952380952NOK
10% type I error level200.952380952380952NOK
 
Charts produced by software:
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258748852d5neeajxj0xca6o/10ncft1258748789.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258748852d5neeajxj0xca6o/10ncft1258748789.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258748852d5neeajxj0xca6o/1rd0w1258748789.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258748852d5neeajxj0xca6o/1rd0w1258748789.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258748852d5neeajxj0xca6o/2xnga1258748789.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258748852d5neeajxj0xca6o/2xnga1258748789.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258748852d5neeajxj0xca6o/3aca01258748789.png (open in new window)
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http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258748852d5neeajxj0xca6o/44dda1258748789.png (open in new window)
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http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258748852d5neeajxj0xca6o/6o7uu1258748789.png (open in new window)
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http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258748852d5neeajxj0xca6o/7ks491258748789.png (open in new window)
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http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258748852d5neeajxj0xca6o/8cx871258748789.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258748852d5neeajxj0xca6o/8cx871258748789.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258748852d5neeajxj0xca6o/9r3o41258748789.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258748852d5neeajxj0xca6o/9r3o41258748789.ps (open in new window)


 
Parameters (Session):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Include Monthly Dummies ; par3 = Linear Trend ;
 
Parameters (R input):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Include Monthly Dummies ; par3 = Linear Trend ;
 
R code (references can be found in the software module):
library(lattice)
library(lmtest)
n25 <- 25 #minimum number of obs. for Goldfeld-Quandt test
par1 <- as.numeric(par1)
x <- t(y)
k <- length(x[1,])
n <- length(x[,1])
x1 <- cbind(x[,par1], x[,1:k!=par1])
mycolnames <- c(colnames(x)[par1], colnames(x)[1:k!=par1])
colnames(x1) <- mycolnames #colnames(x)[par1]
x <- x1
if (par3 == 'First Differences'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n-1,k), dimnames=list(1:(n-1), paste('(1-B)',colnames(x),sep='')))
for (i in 1:n-1) {
for (j in 1:k) {
x2[i,j] <- x[i+1,j] - x[i,j]
}
}
x <- x2
}
if (par2 == 'Include Monthly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,11), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('M', seq(1:11), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:11){
x2[seq(i,n,12),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
if (par2 == 'Include Quarterly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,3), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('Q', seq(1:3), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:3){
x2[seq(i,n,4),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
k <- length(x[1,])
if (par3 == 'Linear Trend'){
x <- cbind(x, c(1:n))
colnames(x)[k+1] <- 't'
}
x
k <- length(x[1,])
df <- as.data.frame(x)
(mylm <- lm(df))
(mysum <- summary(mylm))
if (n > n25) {
kp3 <- k + 3
nmkm3 <- n - k - 3
gqarr <- array(NA, dim=c(nmkm3-kp3+1,3))
numgqtests <- 0
numsignificant1 <- 0
numsignificant5 <- 0
numsignificant10 <- 0
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
j <- 0
numgqtests <- numgqtests + 1
for (myalt in c('greater', 'two.sided', 'less')) {
j <- j + 1
gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,j] <- gqtest(mylm, point=mypoint, alternative=myalt)$p.value
}
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.01) numsignificant1 <- numsignificant1 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.05) numsignificant5 <- numsignificant5 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.10) numsignificant10 <- numsignificant10 + 1
}
gqarr
}
bitmap(file='test0.png')
plot(x[,1], type='l', main='Actuals and Interpolation', ylab='value of Actuals and Interpolation (dots)', xlab='time or index')
points(x[,1]-mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test1.png')
plot(mysum$resid, type='b', pch=19, main='Residuals', ylab='value of Residuals', xlab='time or index')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test2.png')
hist(mysum$resid, main='Residual Histogram', xlab='values of Residuals')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test3.png')
densityplot(~mysum$resid,col='black',main='Residual Density Plot', xlab='values of Residuals')
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test4.png')
qqnorm(mysum$resid, main='Residual Normal Q-Q Plot')
qqline(mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
(myerror <- as.ts(mysum$resid))
bitmap(file='test5.png')
dum <- cbind(lag(myerror,k=1),myerror)
dum
dum1 <- dum[2:length(myerror),]
dum1
z <- as.data.frame(dum1)
z
plot(z,main=paste('Residual Lag plot, lowess, and regression line'), ylab='values of Residuals', xlab='lagged values of Residuals')
lines(lowess(z))
abline(lm(z))
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test6.png')
acf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test7.png')
pacf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Partial Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test8.png')
opar <- par(mfrow = c(2,2), oma = c(0, 0, 1.1, 0))
plot(mylm, las = 1, sub='Residual Diagnostics')
par(opar)
dev.off()
if (n > n25) {
bitmap(file='test9.png')
plot(kp3:nmkm3,gqarr[,2], main='Goldfeld-Quandt test',ylab='2-sided p-value',xlab='breakpoint')
grid()
dev.off()
}
load(file='createtable')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
myeq <- colnames(x)[1]
myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t] = ', sep='')
for (i in 1:k){
if (mysum$coefficients[i,1] > 0) myeq <- paste(myeq, '+', '')
myeq <- paste(myeq, mysum$coefficients[i,1], sep=' ')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != '(Intercept)') {
myeq <- paste(myeq, rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i], sep='')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != 't') myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t]', sep='')
}
}
myeq <- paste(myeq, ' + e[t]')
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, myeq)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable1.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/ols1.htm','Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares',''), 6, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Variable',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Parameter',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'S.D.',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'T-STAT<br />H0: parameter = 0',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'1-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:k){
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i],header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,mysum$coefficients[i,1])
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,2],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,3],4))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4]/2,6))
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable2.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple R',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sqrt(mysum$r.squared))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Adjusted R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$adj.r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (value)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[1])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF numerator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[2])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF denominator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'p-value',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 1-pf(mysum$fstatistic[1],mysum$fstatistic[2],mysum$fstatistic[3]))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residual Standard Deviation',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$sigma)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Sum Squared Residuals',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sum(myerror*myerror))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable3.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals', 4, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Time or Index', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Actuals', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Interpolation<br />Forecast', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residuals<br />Prediction Error', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:n) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,i, 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,x[i])
a<-table.element(a,x[i]-mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.element(a,mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable4.tab')
if (n > n25) {
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'p-values',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Alternative Hypothesis',3,header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'breakpoint index',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'greater',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-sided',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'less',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,mypoint,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,1])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable5.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Description',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'# significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'% significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'OK/NOK',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'1% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant1/numgqtests < 0.01) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'5% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant5/numgqtests < 0.05) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'10% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant10/numgqtests < 0.1) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable6.tab')
}
 





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Software written by Ed van Stee & Patrick Wessa


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