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*Unverified author*
R Software Module: /rwasp_multipleregression.wasp (opens new window with default values)
Title produced by software: Multiple Regression
Date of computation: Fri, 20 Nov 2009 09:24:55 -0700
 
Cite this page as follows:
Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t12587343553flez7cmbd4vodk.htm/, Retrieved Fri, 20 Nov 2009 17:26:07 +0100
 
BibTeX entries for LaTeX users:
@Manual{KEY,
    author = {{YOUR NAME}},
    publisher = {Office for Research Development and Education},
    title = {Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t12587343553flez7cmbd4vodk.htm/},
    year = {2009},
}
@Manual{R,
    title = {R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing},
    author = {{R Development Core Team}},
    organization = {R Foundation for Statistical Computing},
    address = {Vienna, Austria},
    year = {2009},
    note = {{ISBN} 3-900051-07-0},
    url = {http://www.R-project.org},
}
 
Original text written by user:
 
IsPrivate?
No (this computation is public)
 
User-defined keywords:
 
Dataseries X:
» Textbox « » Textfile « » CSV «
17823.2 0 16704.4 17823.2 17872 0 15991.2 16704.4 17420.4 0 15583.6 15991.2 16704.4 0 19123.5 15583.6 15991.2 0 17838.7 19123.5 15583.6 0 17209.4 17838.7 19123.5 0 18586.5 17209.4 17838.7 0 16258.1 18586.5 17209.4 0 15141.6 16258.1 18586.5 0 19202.1 15141.6 16258.1 0 17746.5 19202.1 15141.6 0 19090.1 17746.5 19202.1 0 18040.3 19090.1 17746.5 0 17515.5 18040.3 19090.1 1 17751.8 17515.5 18040.3 1 21072.4 17751.8 17515.5 1 17170 21072.4 17751.8 1 19439.5 17170 21072.4 1 19795.4 19439.5 17170 1 17574.9 19795.4 19439.5 1 16165.4 17574.9 19795.4 1 19464.6 16165.4 17574.9 1 19932.1 19464.6 16165.4 1 19961.2 19932.1 19464.6 1 17343.4 19961.2 19932.1 1 18924.2 17343.4 19961.2 1 18574.1 18924.2 17343.4 1 21350.6 18574.1 18924.2 1 18594.6 21350.6 18574.1 1 19832.1 18594.6 21350.6 1 20844.4 19832.1 18594.6 1 19640.2 20844.4 19832.1 1 17735.4 19640.2 20844.4 1 19813.6 17735.4 19640.2 1 22160 19813.6 17735.4 1 20664.3 22160 19813.6 1 17877.4 20664.3 22160 1 20906.5 17877.4 20664.3 1 21 etc...
 
Output produced by software:

Enter (or paste) a matrix (table) containing all data (time) series. Every column represents a different variable and must be delimited by a space or Tab. Every row represents a period in time (or category) and must be delimited by hard returns. The easiest way to enter data is to copy and paste a block of spreadsheet cells. Please, do not use commas or spaces to seperate groups of digits!


Summary of computational transaction
Raw Inputview raw input (R code)
Raw Outputview raw output of R engine
Computing time3 seconds
R Server'Gwilym Jenkins' @ 72.249.127.135


Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation
Y[t] = + 4191.72492513178 + 1080.24288788584X[t] + 0.328116813601246Y1[t] + 0.234391904330329Y2[t] + 4298.67549723807M1[t] + 4696.81573343637M2[t] + 3294.52970242339M3[t] + 802.946013604901M4[t] + 1550.95493967962M5[t] + 1874.28478142891M6[t] + 3557.31109805262M7[t] + 2221.62527782109M8[t] + 3900.98112052044M9[t] + 4561.20371537569M10[t] + 1833.90410905446M11[t] + 21.6932594243532t + e[t]


Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares
VariableParameterS.D.T-STAT
H0: parameter = 0
2-tail p-value1-tail p-value
(Intercept)4191.724925131782236.7586381.8740.0682460.034123
X1080.24288788584441.7049282.44560.0189560.009478
Y10.3281168136012460.1266122.59150.0132750.006637
Y20.2343919043303290.1323551.77090.0841920.042096
M14298.67549723807755.4213675.69041e-061e-06
M24696.81573343637799.3798555.87561e-060
M33294.52970242339790.2827014.16880.0001598e-05
M4802.946013604901841.0782940.95470.3454820.172741
M51550.95493967962734.0970182.11270.0409130.020456
M61874.28478142891756.6455112.47710.017570.008785
M73557.31109805262792.7231354.48756e-053e-05
M82221.62527782109735.7013243.01970.0043920.002196
M93900.98112052044814.0874694.79182.3e-051.1e-05
M104561.20371537569956.8074914.76712.5e-051.2e-05
M111833.90410905446787.7036412.32820.0250450.012523
t21.693259424353210.2760022.11110.0410650.020533


Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.896380203979196
R-squared0.803497470085785
Adjusted R-squared0.729809021367954
F-TEST (value)10.9039813439764
F-TEST (DF numerator)15
F-TEST (DF denominator)40
p-value8.79917361196192e-10
Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics
Residual Standard Deviation1089.29160730302
Sum Squared Residuals47462248.2296315


Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals
Time or IndexActualsInterpolation
Forecast
Residuals
Prediction Error
117823.218170.7019721751-347.501972175150
21787218094.2848937726-222.28489377263
317420.416412.78340279181007.61659720824
416704.415008.85554165961695.54445834037
515991.216186.7171471828-195.517147182758
615583.616024.1096188735-440.509618873523
719123.518033.17603353681090.32396646321
817838.716277.97737539381560.72262460623
917209.417066.9259450889142.474054911056
1018586.518819.4615598116-232.961559811590
1116258.116587.9967065700-329.896706570037
1215141.614875.4627517513266.137248248658
1319202.119166.303440153435.7965598465856
1417746.519167.8766108322-1421.37661083215
1519090.118822.0518587908268.048141209216
1618040.317497.0929276342543.207072365798
1717515.517764.6738172551-249.173817255067
1817751.817939.6670594381-187.867059438056
1921072.420293.1158363245779.284163675518
201717018333.9599696669-1163.95996966691
2119439.519052.0611994542387.438800545839
2219795.420486.1246560134-690.724656013393
2317574.918707.2186902417-1132.31869024171
2416165.417014.1342551618-848.734255161838
2519464.620482.3796215949-1017.77962159494
2619932.120807.3090490025-875.209049002504
2719961.219682.3693033375278.830696662542
2817343.418041.4346012011-698.034601201134
2918924.218557.6359707883366.564029211665
3018574.118662.7195404591-88.6195404591304
3121350.620989.6517485245360.948251475484
3218594.619517.8158455323-923.215845532318
3319832.120311.6133099138-479.513309913786
3420844.421228.9518268511-384.551826851083
3519640.219780.3520269675-140.152026967454
3617735.418027.3540235547-291.954023554651
3719813.621082.7140610849-1269.11406108490
382216021843.2193986089316.780601391113
3920664.321257.1460356109-592.846035610935
4017877.418916.6379266726-1039.23792667264
4120906.520253.3682498338653.131750166216
4221164.120440.3640071286723.735992871433
4321374.422606.5948396921-1232.19483969206
4422952.321397.38593996341554.91406003657
4521343.521393.8995455431-50.3995455431093
4623899.322591.06195732391308.23804267607
4722392.920790.53257622081602.36742377921
4818274.117399.5489695322874.551030467834
4922786.720188.10090499162598.5990950084
5022321.520119.41004778382202.08995221617
5117842.218803.8493994691-961.649399469068
5216373.516874.9790028324-501.479002832401
5315933.816508.8048149401-575.004814940057
5416446.116452.8397741007-6.73977410072358
551772918727.3615419222-998.361541922158
561664317671.4608694436-1028.46086944358


Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
p-valuesAlternative Hypothesis
breakpoint indexgreater2-sidedless
190.1319812026168410.2639624052336810.86801879738316
200.4697004583691080.9394009167382150.530299541630892
210.4172709271278530.8345418542557050.582729072872147
220.2841243889188740.5682487778377490.715875611081126
230.1879416466770640.3758832933541290.812058353322936
240.1127168856457260.2254337712914520.887283114354274
250.0731012694637480.1462025389274960.926898730536252
260.04818558776274750.0963711755254950.951814412237252
270.05047134104832620.1009426820966520.949528658951674
280.08164752376240910.1632950475248180.91835247623759
290.0751810878397830.1503621756795660.924818912160217
300.0458614950205720.0917229900411440.954138504979428
310.08485567186168970.1697113437233790.91514432813831
320.04933003211163670.09866006422327340.950669967888363
330.04320998183216330.08641996366432660.956790018167837
340.02859514308877880.05719028617755760.971404856911221
350.03744593554319660.07489187108639320.962554064456803
360.1160090146055370.2320180292110730.883990985394463
370.09576594157615870.1915318831523170.904234058423841


Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
Description# significant tests% significant testsOK/NOK
1% type I error level00OK
5% type I error level00OK
10% type I error level60.315789473684211NOK
 
Charts produced by software:
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http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t12587343553flez7cmbd4vodk/9xmup1258734291.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t12587343553flez7cmbd4vodk/9xmup1258734291.ps (open in new window)


 
Parameters (Session):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Include Monthly Dummies ; par3 = Linear Trend ;
 
Parameters (R input):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Include Monthly Dummies ; par3 = Linear Trend ;
 
R code (references can be found in the software module):
library(lattice)
library(lmtest)
n25 <- 25 #minimum number of obs. for Goldfeld-Quandt test
par1 <- as.numeric(par1)
x <- t(y)
k <- length(x[1,])
n <- length(x[,1])
x1 <- cbind(x[,par1], x[,1:k!=par1])
mycolnames <- c(colnames(x)[par1], colnames(x)[1:k!=par1])
colnames(x1) <- mycolnames #colnames(x)[par1]
x <- x1
if (par3 == 'First Differences'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n-1,k), dimnames=list(1:(n-1), paste('(1-B)',colnames(x),sep='')))
for (i in 1:n-1) {
for (j in 1:k) {
x2[i,j] <- x[i+1,j] - x[i,j]
}
}
x <- x2
}
if (par2 == 'Include Monthly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,11), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('M', seq(1:11), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:11){
x2[seq(i,n,12),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
if (par2 == 'Include Quarterly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,3), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('Q', seq(1:3), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:3){
x2[seq(i,n,4),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
k <- length(x[1,])
if (par3 == 'Linear Trend'){
x <- cbind(x, c(1:n))
colnames(x)[k+1] <- 't'
}
x
k <- length(x[1,])
df <- as.data.frame(x)
(mylm <- lm(df))
(mysum <- summary(mylm))
if (n > n25) {
kp3 <- k + 3
nmkm3 <- n - k - 3
gqarr <- array(NA, dim=c(nmkm3-kp3+1,3))
numgqtests <- 0
numsignificant1 <- 0
numsignificant5 <- 0
numsignificant10 <- 0
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
j <- 0
numgqtests <- numgqtests + 1
for (myalt in c('greater', 'two.sided', 'less')) {
j <- j + 1
gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,j] <- gqtest(mylm, point=mypoint, alternative=myalt)$p.value
}
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.01) numsignificant1 <- numsignificant1 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.05) numsignificant5 <- numsignificant5 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.10) numsignificant10 <- numsignificant10 + 1
}
gqarr
}
bitmap(file='test0.png')
plot(x[,1], type='l', main='Actuals and Interpolation', ylab='value of Actuals and Interpolation (dots)', xlab='time or index')
points(x[,1]-mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test1.png')
plot(mysum$resid, type='b', pch=19, main='Residuals', ylab='value of Residuals', xlab='time or index')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test2.png')
hist(mysum$resid, main='Residual Histogram', xlab='values of Residuals')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test3.png')
densityplot(~mysum$resid,col='black',main='Residual Density Plot', xlab='values of Residuals')
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test4.png')
qqnorm(mysum$resid, main='Residual Normal Q-Q Plot')
qqline(mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
(myerror <- as.ts(mysum$resid))
bitmap(file='test5.png')
dum <- cbind(lag(myerror,k=1),myerror)
dum
dum1 <- dum[2:length(myerror),]
dum1
z <- as.data.frame(dum1)
z
plot(z,main=paste('Residual Lag plot, lowess, and regression line'), ylab='values of Residuals', xlab='lagged values of Residuals')
lines(lowess(z))
abline(lm(z))
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test6.png')
acf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test7.png')
pacf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Partial Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test8.png')
opar <- par(mfrow = c(2,2), oma = c(0, 0, 1.1, 0))
plot(mylm, las = 1, sub='Residual Diagnostics')
par(opar)
dev.off()
if (n > n25) {
bitmap(file='test9.png')
plot(kp3:nmkm3,gqarr[,2], main='Goldfeld-Quandt test',ylab='2-sided p-value',xlab='breakpoint')
grid()
dev.off()
}
load(file='createtable')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
myeq <- colnames(x)[1]
myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t] = ', sep='')
for (i in 1:k){
if (mysum$coefficients[i,1] > 0) myeq <- paste(myeq, '+', '')
myeq <- paste(myeq, mysum$coefficients[i,1], sep=' ')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != '(Intercept)') {
myeq <- paste(myeq, rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i], sep='')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != 't') myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t]', sep='')
}
}
myeq <- paste(myeq, ' + e[t]')
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, myeq)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable1.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/ols1.htm','Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares',''), 6, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Variable',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Parameter',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'S.D.',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'T-STAT<br />H0: parameter = 0',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'1-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:k){
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i],header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,mysum$coefficients[i,1])
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,2],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,3],4))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4]/2,6))
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable2.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple R',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sqrt(mysum$r.squared))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Adjusted R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$adj.r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (value)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[1])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF numerator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[2])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF denominator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'p-value',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 1-pf(mysum$fstatistic[1],mysum$fstatistic[2],mysum$fstatistic[3]))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residual Standard Deviation',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$sigma)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Sum Squared Residuals',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sum(myerror*myerror))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable3.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals', 4, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Time or Index', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Actuals', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Interpolation<br />Forecast', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residuals<br />Prediction Error', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:n) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,i, 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,x[i])
a<-table.element(a,x[i]-mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.element(a,mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable4.tab')
if (n > n25) {
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'p-values',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Alternative Hypothesis',3,header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'breakpoint index',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'greater',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-sided',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'less',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,mypoint,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,1])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable5.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Description',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'# significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'% significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'OK/NOK',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'1% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant1/numgqtests < 0.01) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'5% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant5/numgqtests < 0.05) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'10% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant10/numgqtests < 0.1) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable6.tab')
}
 





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Software written by Ed van Stee & Patrick Wessa


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