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*The author of this computation has been verified*
R Software Module: /rwasp_multipleregression.wasp (opens new window with default values)
Title produced by software: Multiple Regression
Date of computation: Fri, 20 Nov 2009 08:09:12 -0700
 
Cite this page as follows:
Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258729828bpmpma195zxr10h.htm/, Retrieved Fri, 20 Nov 2009 16:10:40 +0100
 
BibTeX entries for LaTeX users:
@Manual{KEY,
    author = {{YOUR NAME}},
    publisher = {Office for Research Development and Education},
    title = {Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258729828bpmpma195zxr10h.htm/},
    year = {2009},
}
@Manual{R,
    title = {R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing},
    author = {{R Development Core Team}},
    organization = {R Foundation for Statistical Computing},
    address = {Vienna, Austria},
    year = {2009},
    note = {{ISBN} 3-900051-07-0},
    url = {http://www.R-project.org},
}
 
Original text written by user:
 
IsPrivate?
No (this computation is public)
 
User-defined keywords:
 
Dataseries X:
» Textbox « » Textfile « » CSV «
20366 0 22782 0 19169 0 13807 0 29743 0 25591 0 29096 0 26482 0 22405 0 27044 0 17970 0 18730 0 19684 0 19785 0 18479 0 10698 0 31956 0 29506 0 34506 0 27165 0 26736 0 23691 0 18157 0 17328 0 18205 0 20995 0 17382 0 9367 0 31124 0 26551 0 30651 0 25859 0 25100 0 25778 0 20418 0 18688 0 20424 0 24776 0 19814 0 12738 0 31566 0 30111 0 30019 0 31934 1 25826 1 26835 1 20205 1 17789 1 20520 1 22518 1 15572 1 11509 1 25447 1 24090 1 27786 1 26195 1 20516 1 22759 1 19028 1 16971 1 20036 1
 
Output produced by software:

Enter (or paste) a matrix (table) containing all data (time) series. Every column represents a different variable and must be delimited by a space or Tab. Every row represents a period in time (or category) and must be delimited by hard returns. The easiest way to enter data is to copy and paste a block of spreadsheet cells. Please, do not use commas or spaces to seperate groups of digits!


Summary of computational transaction
Raw Inputview raw input (R code)
Raw Outputview raw output of R engine
Computing time3 seconds
R Server'Gwilym Jenkins' @ 72.249.127.135


Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation
Y[t] = + 18131.4750853242 -1137.48634812287X[t] + 1926.67861205915M1[t] + 4104.92480091012M2[t] + 10.6825938566490M3[t] -6454.95961319682M4[t] + 11882.1981797497M5[t] + 9078.55597269624M6[t] + 12314.1137656428M7[t] + 9650.76882821388M8[t] + 6234.12662116041M9[t] + 7332.68441410694M10[t] + 1260.64220705347M11[t] + 6.2422070534699t + e[t]


Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares
VariableParameterS.D.T-STAT
H0: parameter = 0
2-tail p-value1-tail p-value
(Intercept)18131.47508532421075.0870116.865100
X-1137.48634812287924.549304-1.23030.2247020.112351
M11926.678612059151202.8692031.60170.1159150.057957
M24104.924800910121262.0932153.25250.0021210.00106
M310.68259385664901260.5847860.00850.9932740.496637
M4-6454.959613196821259.523129-5.12496e-063e-06
M511882.19817974971258.9093749.438500
M69078.555972696241258.7441767.212400
M712314.11376564281259.0277119.780700
M89650.768828213881257.1848217.676500
M96234.126621160411255.611174.9659e-065e-06
M107332.684414106941254.4859255.845200
M111260.642207053471253.8102931.00540.3198290.159915
t6.242207053469923.7675160.26260.7939790.396989


Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.951798518642867
R-squared0.905920420090756
Adjusted R-squared0.879898408626498
F-TEST (value)34.8136200514336
F-TEST (DF numerator)13
F-TEST (DF denominator)47
p-value0
Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics
Residual Standard Deviation1982.09192304184
Sum Squared Residuals184648354.395222


Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals
Time or IndexActualsInterpolation
Forecast
Residuals
Prediction Error
12036620064.3959044369301.604095563121
22278222248.8843003413533.115699658699
31916918160.88430034131008.1156996587
41380711701.48430034132105.51569965871
52974330044.8843003413-301.884300341295
62559127247.4843003413-1656.48430034130
72909630489.2843003413-1393.28430034130
82648227832.1815699659-1350.18156996586
92240524421.7815699659-2016.78156996586
102704425526.58156996591517.41843003412
111797019460.7815699659-1490.78156996587
121873018206.3815699659523.61843003413
131968420139.3023890785-455.302389078494
141978522323.7907849829-2538.79078498293
151847918235.7907849829243.209215017066
161069811776.3907849829-1078.39078498294
173195630119.79078498291836.20921501707
182950627322.39078498292183.60921501707
193450630564.19078498293941.80921501707
202716527907.0880546075-742.088054607511
212673624496.68805460752239.31194539249
222369125601.4880546075-1910.48805460751
231815719535.6880546075-1378.68805460751
241732818281.2880546075-953.288054607507
251820520214.2088737201-2009.20887372013
262099522398.6972696246-1403.69726962457
271738218310.6972696246-928.697269624572
28936711851.2972696246-2484.29726962457
293112430194.6972696246929.302730375427
302655127397.2972696246-846.297269624574
313065130639.097269624611.9027303754272
322585927981.9945392491-2122.99453924915
332510024571.5945392491528.405460750851
342577825676.3945392491101.605460750853
352041819610.5945392491807.405460750851
361868818356.1945392491331.805460750854
372042420289.1153583618134.884641638228
382477622473.60375426622302.39624573379
391981418385.60375426621428.39624573379
401273811926.2037542662811.796245733788
413156630269.60375426621296.39624573379
423011127472.20375426622638.79624573379
433001930714.0037542662-695.003754266211
443193426919.41467576795014.58532423208
452582623509.01467576792316.98532423208
462683524613.81467576792221.18532423208
472020518548.01467576791656.98532423208
481778917293.6146757679495.385324232083
492052019226.53549488051293.46450511946
502251821411.0238907851106.97610921502
511557217323.0238907850-1751.02389078498
521150910863.6238907850645.376109215016
532544729207.023890785-3760.02389078498
542409026409.623890785-2319.62389078498
552778629651.423890785-1865.42389078498
562619526994.3211604096-799.32116040956
572051623583.9211604096-3067.92116040956
582275924688.7211604096-1929.72116040955
591902818622.9211604096405.078839590442
601697117368.5211604096-397.521160409556
612003619301.4419795222734.558020477818


Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
p-valuesAlternative Hypothesis
breakpoint indexgreater2-sidedless
170.4176822739767030.8353645479534050.582317726023297
180.5862681867139370.8274636265721250.413731813286063
190.7837502755231350.4324994489537310.216249724476865
200.6786234817987620.6427530364024770.321376518201239
210.6902514591503820.6194970816992370.309748540849618
220.7170308701155890.5659382597688220.282969129884411
230.6376211986682740.7247576026634520.362378801331726
240.5625367293084790.8749265413830410.437463270691521
250.5533514348983010.8932971302033990.446648565101699
260.5259906613247870.9480186773504270.474009338675213
270.4568830791992420.9137661583984830.543116920800758
280.5414365308694560.9171269382610880.458563469130544
290.4481269904237360.8962539808474720.551873009576264
300.400725640113970.801451280227940.59927435988603
310.3123365158970040.6246730317940080.687663484102996
320.4877821889723920.9755643779447830.512217811027608
330.4056418746521160.8112837493042310.594358125347884
340.3572928314352380.7145856628704770.642707168564762
350.3882899046243430.7765798092486850.611710095375657
360.3692890725826910.7385781451653820.63071092741731
370.5799423847712270.8401152304575450.420057615228773
380.592138360449140.8157232791017210.407861639550860
390.4857756690374730.9715513380749460.514224330962527
400.5162403679721910.9675192640556180.483759632027809
410.4319706040709290.8639412081418580.568029395929071
420.4557296987097300.9114593974194610.54427030129027
430.3291250110104740.6582500220209480.670874988989526
440.3600803724210160.7201607448420330.639919627578984


Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
Description# significant tests% significant testsOK/NOK
1% type I error level00OK
5% type I error level00OK
10% type I error level00OK
 
Charts produced by software:
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258729828bpmpma195zxr10h/10maxh1258729748.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258729828bpmpma195zxr10h/10maxh1258729748.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258729828bpmpma195zxr10h/17jkg1258729748.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258729828bpmpma195zxr10h/17jkg1258729748.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258729828bpmpma195zxr10h/2imrr1258729748.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258729828bpmpma195zxr10h/2imrr1258729748.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258729828bpmpma195zxr10h/3nvwz1258729748.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258729828bpmpma195zxr10h/3nvwz1258729748.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258729828bpmpma195zxr10h/476081258729748.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258729828bpmpma195zxr10h/476081258729748.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258729828bpmpma195zxr10h/5lllz1258729748.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258729828bpmpma195zxr10h/5lllz1258729748.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258729828bpmpma195zxr10h/6zv1u1258729748.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258729828bpmpma195zxr10h/6zv1u1258729748.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258729828bpmpma195zxr10h/7u6451258729748.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258729828bpmpma195zxr10h/7u6451258729748.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258729828bpmpma195zxr10h/87ev31258729748.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258729828bpmpma195zxr10h/87ev31258729748.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258729828bpmpma195zxr10h/9ruf91258729748.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258729828bpmpma195zxr10h/9ruf91258729748.ps (open in new window)


 
Parameters (Session):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Include Monthly Dummies ; par3 = Linear Trend ;
 
Parameters (R input):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Include Monthly Dummies ; par3 = Linear Trend ;
 
R code (references can be found in the software module):
library(lattice)
library(lmtest)
n25 <- 25 #minimum number of obs. for Goldfeld-Quandt test
par1 <- as.numeric(par1)
x <- t(y)
k <- length(x[1,])
n <- length(x[,1])
x1 <- cbind(x[,par1], x[,1:k!=par1])
mycolnames <- c(colnames(x)[par1], colnames(x)[1:k!=par1])
colnames(x1) <- mycolnames #colnames(x)[par1]
x <- x1
if (par3 == 'First Differences'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n-1,k), dimnames=list(1:(n-1), paste('(1-B)',colnames(x),sep='')))
for (i in 1:n-1) {
for (j in 1:k) {
x2[i,j] <- x[i+1,j] - x[i,j]
}
}
x <- x2
}
if (par2 == 'Include Monthly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,11), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('M', seq(1:11), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:11){
x2[seq(i,n,12),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
if (par2 == 'Include Quarterly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,3), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('Q', seq(1:3), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:3){
x2[seq(i,n,4),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
k <- length(x[1,])
if (par3 == 'Linear Trend'){
x <- cbind(x, c(1:n))
colnames(x)[k+1] <- 't'
}
x
k <- length(x[1,])
df <- as.data.frame(x)
(mylm <- lm(df))
(mysum <- summary(mylm))
if (n > n25) {
kp3 <- k + 3
nmkm3 <- n - k - 3
gqarr <- array(NA, dim=c(nmkm3-kp3+1,3))
numgqtests <- 0
numsignificant1 <- 0
numsignificant5 <- 0
numsignificant10 <- 0
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
j <- 0
numgqtests <- numgqtests + 1
for (myalt in c('greater', 'two.sided', 'less')) {
j <- j + 1
gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,j] <- gqtest(mylm, point=mypoint, alternative=myalt)$p.value
}
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.01) numsignificant1 <- numsignificant1 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.05) numsignificant5 <- numsignificant5 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.10) numsignificant10 <- numsignificant10 + 1
}
gqarr
}
bitmap(file='test0.png')
plot(x[,1], type='l', main='Actuals and Interpolation', ylab='value of Actuals and Interpolation (dots)', xlab='time or index')
points(x[,1]-mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test1.png')
plot(mysum$resid, type='b', pch=19, main='Residuals', ylab='value of Residuals', xlab='time or index')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test2.png')
hist(mysum$resid, main='Residual Histogram', xlab='values of Residuals')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test3.png')
densityplot(~mysum$resid,col='black',main='Residual Density Plot', xlab='values of Residuals')
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test4.png')
qqnorm(mysum$resid, main='Residual Normal Q-Q Plot')
qqline(mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
(myerror <- as.ts(mysum$resid))
bitmap(file='test5.png')
dum <- cbind(lag(myerror,k=1),myerror)
dum
dum1 <- dum[2:length(myerror),]
dum1
z <- as.data.frame(dum1)
z
plot(z,main=paste('Residual Lag plot, lowess, and regression line'), ylab='values of Residuals', xlab='lagged values of Residuals')
lines(lowess(z))
abline(lm(z))
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test6.png')
acf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test7.png')
pacf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Partial Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test8.png')
opar <- par(mfrow = c(2,2), oma = c(0, 0, 1.1, 0))
plot(mylm, las = 1, sub='Residual Diagnostics')
par(opar)
dev.off()
if (n > n25) {
bitmap(file='test9.png')
plot(kp3:nmkm3,gqarr[,2], main='Goldfeld-Quandt test',ylab='2-sided p-value',xlab='breakpoint')
grid()
dev.off()
}
load(file='createtable')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
myeq <- colnames(x)[1]
myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t] = ', sep='')
for (i in 1:k){
if (mysum$coefficients[i,1] > 0) myeq <- paste(myeq, '+', '')
myeq <- paste(myeq, mysum$coefficients[i,1], sep=' ')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != '(Intercept)') {
myeq <- paste(myeq, rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i], sep='')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != 't') myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t]', sep='')
}
}
myeq <- paste(myeq, ' + e[t]')
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, myeq)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable1.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/ols1.htm','Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares',''), 6, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Variable',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Parameter',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'S.D.',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'T-STAT<br />H0: parameter = 0',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'1-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:k){
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i],header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,mysum$coefficients[i,1])
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,2],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,3],4))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4]/2,6))
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable2.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple R',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sqrt(mysum$r.squared))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Adjusted R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$adj.r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (value)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[1])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF numerator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[2])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF denominator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'p-value',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 1-pf(mysum$fstatistic[1],mysum$fstatistic[2],mysum$fstatistic[3]))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residual Standard Deviation',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$sigma)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Sum Squared Residuals',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sum(myerror*myerror))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable3.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals', 4, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Time or Index', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Actuals', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Interpolation<br />Forecast', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residuals<br />Prediction Error', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:n) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,i, 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,x[i])
a<-table.element(a,x[i]-mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.element(a,mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable4.tab')
if (n > n25) {
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'p-values',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Alternative Hypothesis',3,header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'breakpoint index',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'greater',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-sided',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'less',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,mypoint,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,1])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable5.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Description',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'# significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'% significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'OK/NOK',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'1% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant1/numgqtests < 0.01) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'5% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant5/numgqtests < 0.05) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'10% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant10/numgqtests < 0.1) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable6.tab')
}
 





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Software written by Ed van Stee & Patrick Wessa


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