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*The author of this computation has been verified*
R Software Module: /rwasp_multipleregression.wasp (opens new window with default values)
Title produced by software: Multiple Regression
Date of computation: Fri, 20 Nov 2009 07:38:06 -0700
 
Cite this page as follows:
Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t125872809769krb8m4jvy2x38.htm/, Retrieved Fri, 20 Nov 2009 15:41:49 +0100
 
BibTeX entries for LaTeX users:
@Manual{KEY,
    author = {{YOUR NAME}},
    publisher = {Office for Research Development and Education},
    title = {Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t125872809769krb8m4jvy2x38.htm/},
    year = {2009},
}
@Manual{R,
    title = {R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing},
    author = {{R Development Core Team}},
    organization = {R Foundation for Statistical Computing},
    address = {Vienna, Austria},
    year = {2009},
    note = {{ISBN} 3-900051-07-0},
    url = {http://www.R-project.org},
}
 
Original text written by user:
 
IsPrivate?
No (this computation is public)
 
User-defined keywords:
 
Dataseries X:
» Textbox « » Textfile « » CSV «
613 0 611 611 0 613 594 0 611 595 0 594 591 0 595 589 0 591 584 0 589 573 0 584 567 0 573 569 0 567 621 0 569 629 0 621 628 0 629 612 0 628 595 0 612 597 0 595 593 0 597 590 0 593 580 0 590 574 0 580 573 0 574 573 0 573 620 0 573 626 0 620 620 0 626 588 0 620 566 0 588 557 0 566 561 0 557 549 0 561 532 0 549 526 0 532 511 0 526 499 0 511 555 0 499 565 0 555 542 0 565 527 0 542 510 0 527 514 0 510 517 0 514 508 0 517 493 0 508 490 0 493 469 0 490 478 0 469 528 0 478 534 0 528 518 1 534 506 1 518 502 1 506 516 1 502 528 1 516 533 1 528 536 1 533 537 1 536 524 1 537 536 1 524 587 1 536 597 1 587 581 1 597
 
Output produced by software:

Enter (or paste) a matrix (table) containing all data (time) series. Every column represents a different variable and must be delimited by a space or Tab. Every row represents a period in time (or category) and must be delimited by hard returns. The easiest way to enter data is to copy and paste a block of spreadsheet cells. Please, do not use commas or spaces to seperate groups of digits!


Summary of computational transaction
Raw Inputview raw input (R code)
Raw Outputview raw output of R engine
Computing time5 seconds
R Server'Gwilym Jenkins' @ 72.249.127.135


Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation
WklBe[t] = + 78.3799061515617 + 14.6195874973145X[t] + 0.898113780807656Y1[t] -20.7234367469645M1[t] -27.0811350164046M2[t] -28.2616920464878M3[t] -11.6422490765710M4[t] -11.2092314050304M5[t] -16.9965909773283M6[t] -21.6360223524573M7[t] -18.3441303358710M8[t] -24.6650706863537M9[t] -12.0177055958290M10[t] + 37.5949348318731M11[t] -0.388490745478934t + e[t]


Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares
VariableParameterS.D.T-STAT
H0: parameter = 0
2-tail p-value1-tail p-value
(Intercept)78.379906151561726.4795512.960.004850.002425
X14.61958749731453.2888524.44525.5e-052.8e-05
Y10.8981137808076560.03991522.500900
M1-20.72343674696453.953963-5.24124e-062e-06
M2-27.08113501640464.204585-6.440900
M3-28.26169204648784.32882-6.528700
M4-11.64224907657104.511667-2.58050.0131230.006562
M5-11.20923140503044.428655-2.53110.0148550.007427
M6-16.99659097732834.356003-3.90190.0003090.000155
M7-21.63602235245734.377076-4.9431.1e-055e-06
M8-18.34413033587104.473265-4.10080.0001668.3e-05
M9-24.66507068635374.515308-5.46252e-061e-06
M10-12.01770559582904.67794-2.5690.0135080.006754
M1137.59493483187314.5901838.190300
t-0.3884907454789340.11461-3.38970.0014450.000722


Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.991014050333522
R-squared0.982108847958452
Adjusted R-squared0.976663714728416
F-TEST (value)180.364521209686
F-TEST (DF numerator)14
F-TEST (DF denominator)46
p-value0
Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics
Residual Standard Deviation6.42361458238997
Sum Squared Residuals1898.08991794228


Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals
Time or IndexActualsInterpolation
Forecast
Residuals
Prediction Error
1613606.0154987325966.98450126740352
2611601.0655372792929.934462720708
3594597.700261942114-3.70026194211452
4595598.663279892822-3.66327989282235
5591599.605920599692-8.6059205996916
6589589.837615158684-0.837615158684151
7584583.0134654764610.986534523539002
8573581.42629784353-8.42629784353008
9567564.8376151586842.16238484131586
10569571.707806818884-2.70780681888394
11621622.728184062722-1.72818406272239
12629631.446675087369-2.44667508736856
13628617.51965784138610.4803421586136
14612609.875355045662.12464495434040
15595593.9364867771751.06351322282496
16597594.8995047278832.10049527211723
17593596.74025921556-3.74025921555972
18590586.9719537745523.02804622544775
19580579.2496903115210.750309688478562
20574573.1719537745520.828046225447751
21573561.07383999374511.9261600062554
22573572.4346005579830.565399442017315
23620621.658750240206-1.65875024020584
24626625.8866723608140.113327639186318
25620610.1634275532169.83657244678383
26588598.028555853451-10.0285558534512
27566567.719867092044-1.71986709204409
28557564.192316138714-7.19231613871355
29561556.1538190375064.84618096249371
30549553.57042384296-4.57042384296006
31532537.76513635266-5.76513635266034
32526525.4006033500380.599396649962425
33511513.30248956923-2.30248956922991
34499512.089657202161-13.0896572021608
35555550.5364415146924.46355848530787
36565562.8473876625692.15261233743114
37542550.716597978202-8.71659797820196
38527523.3137920047073.68620799529316
39510508.273037517031.72696248297010
40514509.2360554677384.76394453226237
41517512.873037517034.12696248297012
42508509.391528541676-1.39152854167601
43493496.280582393799-3.28058239379926
44490485.7122769527924.2877230472082
45469476.308504514407-7.30850451440711
46478469.7069894624928.2930105375079
47528527.0141631719840.985836828015844
48534533.9364266350150.063573364985062
49518532.832769324732-14.8327693247320
50506511.71675981689-5.71675981689042
51502499.3703466716362.62965332836356
52516512.0088437728443.99115622715631
53528524.6269636302133.37303636978748
54533529.2284786821283.77152131787247
55536528.6911254655587.30887453444203
56537534.2888680790882.71113192091170
57524528.477550763934-4.47755076393423
58536529.060945958486.93905404151954
59587589.062461010396-2.06246101039548
60597596.8828382542340.117161745766061
61581584.752048569867-3.75204856986706


Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
p-valuesAlternative Hypothesis
breakpoint indexgreater2-sidedless
180.1843117036626800.3686234073253590.81568829633732
190.1124624041751040.2249248083502080.887537595824896
200.05902823219570960.1180564643914190.94097176780429
210.06655743238509920.1331148647701980.9334425676149
220.03079516553987250.06159033107974490.969204834460128
230.01735724219286650.03471448438573310.982642757807134
240.008904131479337680.01780826295867540.991095868520662
250.03974288525020190.07948577050040390.960257114749798
260.6633421939884670.6733156120230670.336657806011533
270.5670975975441080.8658048049117840.432902402455892
280.5667843076020380.8664313847959250.433215692397962
290.6275461035087960.7449077929824080.372453896491204
300.5872051404395370.8255897191209260.412794859560463
310.5503030743227290.8993938513545430.449696925677271
320.4714885022445880.9429770044891760.528511497755412
330.4988414530659550.997682906131910.501158546934045
340.930639543980190.1387209120396210.0693604560198104
350.944090045787640.1118199084247210.0559099542123607
360.939862460513440.1202750789731220.0601375394865612
370.9538882645955820.09222347080883620.0461117354044181
380.9829394485187590.03412110296248290.0170605514812415
390.966371435457570.06725712908485870.0336285645424294
400.959030410197470.0819391796050610.0409695898025305
410.98054075022950.03891849954100220.0194592497705011
420.9805838917909820.03883221641803560.0194161082090178
430.97103231201470.05793537597060050.0289676879853002


Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
Description# significant tests% significant testsOK/NOK
1% type I error level00OK
5% type I error level50.192307692307692NOK
10% type I error level110.423076923076923NOK
 
Charts produced by software:
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t125872809769krb8m4jvy2x38/10h9pf1258727879.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t125872809769krb8m4jvy2x38/10h9pf1258727879.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t125872809769krb8m4jvy2x38/1umsw1258727879.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t125872809769krb8m4jvy2x38/1umsw1258727879.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t125872809769krb8m4jvy2x38/274go1258727879.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t125872809769krb8m4jvy2x38/274go1258727879.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t125872809769krb8m4jvy2x38/3a2o21258727879.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t125872809769krb8m4jvy2x38/3a2o21258727879.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t125872809769krb8m4jvy2x38/4raop1258727879.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t125872809769krb8m4jvy2x38/4raop1258727879.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t125872809769krb8m4jvy2x38/5x77e1258727879.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t125872809769krb8m4jvy2x38/5x77e1258727879.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t125872809769krb8m4jvy2x38/6i6pp1258727879.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t125872809769krb8m4jvy2x38/6i6pp1258727879.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t125872809769krb8m4jvy2x38/71sgd1258727879.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t125872809769krb8m4jvy2x38/71sgd1258727879.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t125872809769krb8m4jvy2x38/8qpia1258727879.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t125872809769krb8m4jvy2x38/8qpia1258727879.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t125872809769krb8m4jvy2x38/90fjy1258727879.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t125872809769krb8m4jvy2x38/90fjy1258727879.ps (open in new window)


 
Parameters (Session):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Include Monthly Dummies ; par3 = Linear Trend ;
 
Parameters (R input):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Include Monthly Dummies ; par3 = Linear Trend ;
 
R code (references can be found in the software module):
library(lattice)
library(lmtest)
n25 <- 25 #minimum number of obs. for Goldfeld-Quandt test
par1 <- as.numeric(par1)
x <- t(y)
k <- length(x[1,])
n <- length(x[,1])
x1 <- cbind(x[,par1], x[,1:k!=par1])
mycolnames <- c(colnames(x)[par1], colnames(x)[1:k!=par1])
colnames(x1) <- mycolnames #colnames(x)[par1]
x <- x1
if (par3 == 'First Differences'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n-1,k), dimnames=list(1:(n-1), paste('(1-B)',colnames(x),sep='')))
for (i in 1:n-1) {
for (j in 1:k) {
x2[i,j] <- x[i+1,j] - x[i,j]
}
}
x <- x2
}
if (par2 == 'Include Monthly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,11), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('M', seq(1:11), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:11){
x2[seq(i,n,12),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
if (par2 == 'Include Quarterly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,3), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('Q', seq(1:3), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:3){
x2[seq(i,n,4),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
k <- length(x[1,])
if (par3 == 'Linear Trend'){
x <- cbind(x, c(1:n))
colnames(x)[k+1] <- 't'
}
x
k <- length(x[1,])
df <- as.data.frame(x)
(mylm <- lm(df))
(mysum <- summary(mylm))
if (n > n25) {
kp3 <- k + 3
nmkm3 <- n - k - 3
gqarr <- array(NA, dim=c(nmkm3-kp3+1,3))
numgqtests <- 0
numsignificant1 <- 0
numsignificant5 <- 0
numsignificant10 <- 0
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
j <- 0
numgqtests <- numgqtests + 1
for (myalt in c('greater', 'two.sided', 'less')) {
j <- j + 1
gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,j] <- gqtest(mylm, point=mypoint, alternative=myalt)$p.value
}
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.01) numsignificant1 <- numsignificant1 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.05) numsignificant5 <- numsignificant5 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.10) numsignificant10 <- numsignificant10 + 1
}
gqarr
}
bitmap(file='test0.png')
plot(x[,1], type='l', main='Actuals and Interpolation', ylab='value of Actuals and Interpolation (dots)', xlab='time or index')
points(x[,1]-mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test1.png')
plot(mysum$resid, type='b', pch=19, main='Residuals', ylab='value of Residuals', xlab='time or index')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test2.png')
hist(mysum$resid, main='Residual Histogram', xlab='values of Residuals')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test3.png')
densityplot(~mysum$resid,col='black',main='Residual Density Plot', xlab='values of Residuals')
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test4.png')
qqnorm(mysum$resid, main='Residual Normal Q-Q Plot')
qqline(mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
(myerror <- as.ts(mysum$resid))
bitmap(file='test5.png')
dum <- cbind(lag(myerror,k=1),myerror)
dum
dum1 <- dum[2:length(myerror),]
dum1
z <- as.data.frame(dum1)
z
plot(z,main=paste('Residual Lag plot, lowess, and regression line'), ylab='values of Residuals', xlab='lagged values of Residuals')
lines(lowess(z))
abline(lm(z))
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test6.png')
acf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test7.png')
pacf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Partial Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test8.png')
opar <- par(mfrow = c(2,2), oma = c(0, 0, 1.1, 0))
plot(mylm, las = 1, sub='Residual Diagnostics')
par(opar)
dev.off()
if (n > n25) {
bitmap(file='test9.png')
plot(kp3:nmkm3,gqarr[,2], main='Goldfeld-Quandt test',ylab='2-sided p-value',xlab='breakpoint')
grid()
dev.off()
}
load(file='createtable')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
myeq <- colnames(x)[1]
myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t] = ', sep='')
for (i in 1:k){
if (mysum$coefficients[i,1] > 0) myeq <- paste(myeq, '+', '')
myeq <- paste(myeq, mysum$coefficients[i,1], sep=' ')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != '(Intercept)') {
myeq <- paste(myeq, rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i], sep='')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != 't') myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t]', sep='')
}
}
myeq <- paste(myeq, ' + e[t]')
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, myeq)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable1.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/ols1.htm','Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares',''), 6, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Variable',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Parameter',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'S.D.',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'T-STAT<br />H0: parameter = 0',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'1-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:k){
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i],header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,mysum$coefficients[i,1])
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,2],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,3],4))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4]/2,6))
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable2.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple R',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sqrt(mysum$r.squared))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Adjusted R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$adj.r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (value)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[1])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF numerator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[2])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF denominator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'p-value',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 1-pf(mysum$fstatistic[1],mysum$fstatistic[2],mysum$fstatistic[3]))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residual Standard Deviation',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$sigma)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Sum Squared Residuals',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sum(myerror*myerror))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable3.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals', 4, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Time or Index', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Actuals', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Interpolation<br />Forecast', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residuals<br />Prediction Error', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:n) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,i, 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,x[i])
a<-table.element(a,x[i]-mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.element(a,mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable4.tab')
if (n > n25) {
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'p-values',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Alternative Hypothesis',3,header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'breakpoint index',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'greater',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-sided',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'less',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,mypoint,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,1])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable5.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Description',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'# significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'% significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'OK/NOK',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'1% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant1/numgqtests < 0.01) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'5% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant5/numgqtests < 0.05) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'10% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant10/numgqtests < 0.1) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable6.tab')
}
 





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