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Workshop 7: model 4

*The author of this computation has been verified*
R Software Module: /rwasp_multipleregression.wasp (opens new window with default values)
Title produced by software: Multiple Regression
Date of computation: Fri, 20 Nov 2009 04:10:35 -0700
 
Cite this page as follows:
Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258715526u3seac5f30p9tyk.htm/, Retrieved Fri, 20 Nov 2009 12:12:18 +0100
 
BibTeX entries for LaTeX users:
@Manual{KEY,
    author = {{YOUR NAME}},
    publisher = {Office for Research Development and Education},
    title = {Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258715526u3seac5f30p9tyk.htm/},
    year = {2009},
}
@Manual{R,
    title = {R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing},
    author = {{R Development Core Team}},
    organization = {R Foundation for Statistical Computing},
    address = {Vienna, Austria},
    year = {2009},
    note = {{ISBN} 3-900051-07-0},
    url = {http://www.R-project.org},
}
 
Original text written by user:
 
IsPrivate?
No (this computation is public)
 
User-defined keywords:
WS7M4MLDG
 
Dataseries X:
» Textbox « » Textfile « » CSV «
264777 26,4 267366 267413 258863 29,4 264777 267366 254844 34,4 258863 264777 254868 24,4 254844 258863 277267 26,4 254868 254844 285351 25,4 277267 254868 286602 31,4 285351 277267 283042 27,4 286602 285351 276687 27,4 283042 286602 277915 29,4 276687 283042 277128 32,4 277915 276687 277103 26,4 277128 277915 275037 22,4 277103 277128 270150 19,4 275037 277103 267140 21,4 270150 275037 264993 23,4 267140 270150 287259 23,4 264993 267140 291186 25,4 287259 264993 292300 28,4 291186 287259 288186 27,4 292300 291186 281477 21,4 288186 292300 282656 17,4 281477 288186 280190 24,4 282656 281477 280408 26,4 280190 282656 276836 22,4 280408 280190 275216 14,4 276836 280408 274352 18,4 275216 276836 271311 25,4 274352 275216 289802 29,4 271311 274352 290726 26,4 289802 271311 292300 26,4 290726 289802 278506 20,4 292300 290726 269826 26,4 278506 292300 265861 29,4 269826 278506 269034 33,4 265861 269826 264176 32,4 269034 265861 255198 35,4 264176 269034 253353 34,4 255198 264176 etc...
 
Output produced by software:

Enter (or paste) a matrix (table) containing all data (time) series. Every column represents a different variable and must be delimited by a space or Tab. Every row represents a period in time (or category) and must be delimited by hard returns. The easiest way to enter data is to copy and paste a block of spreadsheet cells. Please, do not use commas or spaces to seperate groups of digits!


Summary of computational transaction
Raw Inputview raw input (R code)
Raw Outputview raw output of R engine
Computing time4 seconds
R Server'Gwilym Jenkins' @ 72.249.127.135


Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation
Y[t] = + 38700.4448705963 -357.374472052318X[t] + 0.855647370845933Y1[t] + 0.0401402690200562Y2[t] -3281.03169319582M1[t] -3516.7130856408M2[t] -5821.00541143949M3[t] -2989.17761744896M4[t] + 20876.6717415511M5[t] + 5718.67789938775M6[t] + 908.13223657077M7[t] -4151.43097655575M8[t] -5064.07466478773M9[t] + 2531.01839913112M10[t] + 3396.50452876132M11[t] -78.2294747601183t + e[t]


Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares
VariableParameterS.D.T-STAT
H0: parameter = 0
2-tail p-value1-tail p-value
(Intercept)38700.444870596312104.7099063.19710.0023850.001192
X-357.37447205231886.779454-4.11820.000147e-05
Y10.8556473708459330.1501325.69931e-060
Y20.04014026902005620.141730.28320.7781580.389079
M1-3281.031693195822079.842465-1.57750.1208550.060427
M2-3516.71308564082282.880196-1.54050.1296280.064814
M3-5821.005411439492148.087604-2.70990.0091450.004572
M4-2989.177617448962406.723714-1.2420.2199140.109957
M520876.67174155112148.9584239.714800
M65718.677899387753465.3918811.65020.1050430.052521
M7908.132236570772075.0268620.43760.6634890.331745
M8-4151.430976555752155.721403-1.92580.0597160.029858
M9-5064.074664787732367.82398-2.13870.0372710.018635
M102531.018399131122373.7712391.06620.2913350.145668
M113396.504528761322125.0427741.59830.1161490.058075
t-78.229474760118332.387464-2.41540.0193390.009669


Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.986040149162972
R-squared0.972275175761335
Adjusted R-squared0.96412081569114
F-TEST (value)119.233780136229
F-TEST (DF numerator)15
F-TEST (DF denominator)51
p-value0
Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics
Residual Standard Deviation3345.57670827937
Sum Squared Residuals570837059.060053


Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals
Time or IndexActualsInterpolation
Forecast
Residuals
Prediction Error
1264777265411.542353513-634.542353513001
2258863261808.350434387-2945.3504343871
3254844252474.7345658912369.26543410906
4254868255125.84127123-257.841271230105
5277267278057.924007074-790.924007074084
6285351282345.6839882383005.3160117625
7286602283128.8172500453473.18274995475
8283042280815.4312460542226.56875394572
9276687276828.668919395-141.668919394760
10277915278050.245165012-135.245165011543
11277128278561.021965501-1433.02196550102
12277103276606.432563794496.567436205625
13275037274623.687708058413.312291942228
14270150273613.129282116-3463.12928211643
15267140266251.380040333888.619959666526
16264993265518.565334512-525.565334511973
17287259287348.288103795-89.2881037952946
18291186290362.979044437823.02095556329
19292300288655.9709460153644.02905398478
20288186284986.3747377453199.62526225498
21281477282664.331383095-1187.33138309501
22282656285705.017582709-3049.01758270913
23280190284730.160118585-4540.16011858479
24280408278477.9761316271930.02386837271
25276836276635.758075322200.241924678429
26275216276133.22115452-917.221154519716
27274352270791.6716840423560.32831595841
28271311270239.3421346821071.65786531760
29289802289960.759283537-158.759283537221
30290726291496.368358993-770.368358992896
31292300288140.4451065274159.5548934727
32278506286530.777821241-8024.7778212406
33269826271656.038775923-1830.03877592337
34265861270120.06489912-4259.06489911978
35269034265736.7643052823297.23569471762
36264176265175.217714843-999.217714842883
37255198256714.463276761-1516.46327676108
38253353248880.9233592544472.07664074592
39246057243844.6038801182212.39611988217
40235372241710.838073524-6338.83807352357
41258556255348.25345343207.74654660028
42260993260592.583423846400.416576153945
43254663260149.130814191-5486.13081419076
44250643249692.912104451950.087895548771
45243422243936.125191605-514.125191604582
46247105244398.2462903202706.75370968044
47248541248046.999329421494.000670578608
48245039247735.683921497-2696.68392149716
49237080240008.089198942-2928.08919894229
50237085233458.2586291713626.74137082918
51225554231475.287608440-5921.28760844024
52226839225077.3657398961761.63426010406
53247934249144.260581550-1210.26058155028
54248333253081.622214470-4748.62221446953
55246969251167.881713100-4198.88171309964
56245098243449.5040905091648.49590949112
57246263242589.8357299823673.16427001772
58255765251028.426062844736.57393716001
59264319262137.0542812102181.94571878959
60268347267077.6896682381269.31033176171
61273046268580.4593874044465.54061259572
62273963274736.117140552-773.117140551849
63267430270539.322221176-3109.32222117593
64271993267704.0474461564288.95255384398
65292710293668.514570643-958.514570643393
66295881294590.7629700171290.23702998269
67293299294890.754170122-1591.75417012184


Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
p-valuesAlternative Hypothesis
breakpoint indexgreater2-sidedless
190.02680486034083470.05360972068166930.973195139659165
200.008880503867098730.01776100773419750.991119496132901
210.002673902535936360.005347805071872720.997326097464064
220.001230029831339510.002460059662679020.99876997016866
230.0006052314390912290.001210462878182460.999394768560909
240.000300698658107540.000601397316215080.999699301341892
258.2610373773177e-050.0001652207475463540.999917389626227
260.0002783313083918810.0005566626167837620.999721668691608
270.0003143893228850230.0006287786457700460.999685610677115
280.0001143581077518120.0002287162155036240.999885641892248
293.88131572442882e-057.76263144885764e-050.999961186842756
304.65425799582758e-059.30851599165517e-050.999953457420042
310.0001750839150089720.0003501678300179440.999824916084991
320.05309877244965750.1061975448993150.946901227550343
330.03939410691334850.0787882138266970.960605893086651
340.07079975732529440.1415995146505890.929200242674706
350.1859826500320920.3719653000641840.814017349967908
360.1332251662645550.2664503325291110.866774833735445
370.1021690228842740.2043380457685480.897830977115726
380.1392512712528520.2785025425057050.860748728747148
390.3803402996774660.7606805993549330.619659700322533
400.5675328571171050.864934285765790.432467142882895
410.5948199391030720.8103601217938560.405180060896928
420.7614313699224070.4771372601551850.238568630077593
430.8463377467178050.3073245065643890.153662253282195
440.8240865462526550.3518269074946890.175913453747345
450.7780595700732010.4438808598535990.221940429926799
460.7241073759252240.5517852481495520.275892624074776
470.7836873121955250.4326253756089500.216312687804475
480.9550770213486140.08984595730277250.0449229786513863


Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
Description# significant tests% significant testsOK/NOK
1% type I error level110.366666666666667NOK
5% type I error level120.4NOK
10% type I error level150.5NOK
 
Charts produced by software:
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http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258715526u3seac5f30p9tyk/2j9xb1258715431.png (open in new window)
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http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258715526u3seac5f30p9tyk/91coe1258715431.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t1258715526u3seac5f30p9tyk/91coe1258715431.ps (open in new window)


 
Parameters (Session):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Include Monthly Dummies ; par3 = Linear Trend ;
 
Parameters (R input):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Include Monthly Dummies ; par3 = Linear Trend ;
 
R code (references can be found in the software module):
library(lattice)
library(lmtest)
n25 <- 25 #minimum number of obs. for Goldfeld-Quandt test
par1 <- as.numeric(par1)
x <- t(y)
k <- length(x[1,])
n <- length(x[,1])
x1 <- cbind(x[,par1], x[,1:k!=par1])
mycolnames <- c(colnames(x)[par1], colnames(x)[1:k!=par1])
colnames(x1) <- mycolnames #colnames(x)[par1]
x <- x1
if (par3 == 'First Differences'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n-1,k), dimnames=list(1:(n-1), paste('(1-B)',colnames(x),sep='')))
for (i in 1:n-1) {
for (j in 1:k) {
x2[i,j] <- x[i+1,j] - x[i,j]
}
}
x <- x2
}
if (par2 == 'Include Monthly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,11), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('M', seq(1:11), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:11){
x2[seq(i,n,12),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
if (par2 == 'Include Quarterly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,3), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('Q', seq(1:3), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:3){
x2[seq(i,n,4),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
k <- length(x[1,])
if (par3 == 'Linear Trend'){
x <- cbind(x, c(1:n))
colnames(x)[k+1] <- 't'
}
x
k <- length(x[1,])
df <- as.data.frame(x)
(mylm <- lm(df))
(mysum <- summary(mylm))
if (n > n25) {
kp3 <- k + 3
nmkm3 <- n - k - 3
gqarr <- array(NA, dim=c(nmkm3-kp3+1,3))
numgqtests <- 0
numsignificant1 <- 0
numsignificant5 <- 0
numsignificant10 <- 0
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
j <- 0
numgqtests <- numgqtests + 1
for (myalt in c('greater', 'two.sided', 'less')) {
j <- j + 1
gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,j] <- gqtest(mylm, point=mypoint, alternative=myalt)$p.value
}
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.01) numsignificant1 <- numsignificant1 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.05) numsignificant5 <- numsignificant5 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.10) numsignificant10 <- numsignificant10 + 1
}
gqarr
}
bitmap(file='test0.png')
plot(x[,1], type='l', main='Actuals and Interpolation', ylab='value of Actuals and Interpolation (dots)', xlab='time or index')
points(x[,1]-mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test1.png')
plot(mysum$resid, type='b', pch=19, main='Residuals', ylab='value of Residuals', xlab='time or index')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test2.png')
hist(mysum$resid, main='Residual Histogram', xlab='values of Residuals')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test3.png')
densityplot(~mysum$resid,col='black',main='Residual Density Plot', xlab='values of Residuals')
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test4.png')
qqnorm(mysum$resid, main='Residual Normal Q-Q Plot')
qqline(mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
(myerror <- as.ts(mysum$resid))
bitmap(file='test5.png')
dum <- cbind(lag(myerror,k=1),myerror)
dum
dum1 <- dum[2:length(myerror),]
dum1
z <- as.data.frame(dum1)
z
plot(z,main=paste('Residual Lag plot, lowess, and regression line'), ylab='values of Residuals', xlab='lagged values of Residuals')
lines(lowess(z))
abline(lm(z))
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test6.png')
acf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test7.png')
pacf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Partial Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test8.png')
opar <- par(mfrow = c(2,2), oma = c(0, 0, 1.1, 0))
plot(mylm, las = 1, sub='Residual Diagnostics')
par(opar)
dev.off()
if (n > n25) {
bitmap(file='test9.png')
plot(kp3:nmkm3,gqarr[,2], main='Goldfeld-Quandt test',ylab='2-sided p-value',xlab='breakpoint')
grid()
dev.off()
}
load(file='createtable')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
myeq <- colnames(x)[1]
myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t] = ', sep='')
for (i in 1:k){
if (mysum$coefficients[i,1] > 0) myeq <- paste(myeq, '+', '')
myeq <- paste(myeq, mysum$coefficients[i,1], sep=' ')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != '(Intercept)') {
myeq <- paste(myeq, rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i], sep='')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != 't') myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t]', sep='')
}
}
myeq <- paste(myeq, ' + e[t]')
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, myeq)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable1.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/ols1.htm','Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares',''), 6, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Variable',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Parameter',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'S.D.',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'T-STAT<br />H0: parameter = 0',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'1-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:k){
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i],header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,mysum$coefficients[i,1])
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,2],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,3],4))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4]/2,6))
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable2.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple R',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sqrt(mysum$r.squared))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Adjusted R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$adj.r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (value)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[1])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF numerator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[2])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF denominator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'p-value',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 1-pf(mysum$fstatistic[1],mysum$fstatistic[2],mysum$fstatistic[3]))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residual Standard Deviation',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$sigma)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Sum Squared Residuals',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sum(myerror*myerror))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable3.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals', 4, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Time or Index', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Actuals', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Interpolation<br />Forecast', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residuals<br />Prediction Error', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:n) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,i, 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,x[i])
a<-table.element(a,x[i]-mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.element(a,mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable4.tab')
if (n > n25) {
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'p-values',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Alternative Hypothesis',3,header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'breakpoint index',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'greater',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-sided',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'less',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,mypoint,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,1])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable5.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Description',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'# significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'% significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'OK/NOK',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'1% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant1/numgqtests < 0.01) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'5% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant5/numgqtests < 0.05) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'10% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant10/numgqtests < 0.1) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable6.tab')
}
 





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Software written by Ed van Stee & Patrick Wessa


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