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Workshop 7

*The author of this computation has been verified*
R Software Module: /rwasp_multipleregression.wasp (opens new window with default values)
Title produced by software: Multiple Regression
Date of computation: Thu, 19 Nov 2009 13:00:46 -0700
 
Cite this page as follows:
Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/19/t1258660888990q65ewn7ufsjp.htm/, Retrieved Thu, 19 Nov 2009 21:01:40 +0100
 
BibTeX entries for LaTeX users:
@Manual{KEY,
    author = {{YOUR NAME}},
    publisher = {Office for Research Development and Education},
    title = {Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/19/t1258660888990q65ewn7ufsjp.htm/},
    year = {2009},
}
@Manual{R,
    title = {R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing},
    author = {{R Development Core Team}},
    organization = {R Foundation for Statistical Computing},
    address = {Vienna, Austria},
    year = {2009},
    note = {{ISBN} 3-900051-07-0},
    url = {http://www.R-project.org},
}
 
Original text written by user:
 
IsPrivate?
No (this computation is public)
 
User-defined keywords:
Workshop 7 link 3
 
Dataseries X:
» Textbox « » Textfile « » CSV «
449 0 452 0 462 0 455 0 461 0 461 0 463 0 462 0 456 0 455 0 456 0 472 0 472 0 471 0 465 0 459 0 465 0 468 0 467 0 463 0 460 0 462 0 461 0 476 0 476 0 471 0 453 0 443 0 442 0 444 0 438 0 427 0 424 0 416 0 406 0 431 0 434 0 418 0 412 0 404 0 409 0 412 1 406 1 398 1 397 1 385 1 390 1 413 1 413 1 401 1 397 1 397 1 409 1 419 1 424 1 428 1 430 1 424 1 433 1 456 1 459 1
 
Output produced by software:

Enter (or paste) a matrix (table) containing all data (time) series. Every column represents a different variable and must be delimited by a space or Tab. Every row represents a period in time (or category) and must be delimited by hard returns. The easiest way to enter data is to copy and paste a block of spreadsheet cells. Please, do not use commas or spaces to seperate groups of digits!


Summary of computational transaction
Raw Inputview raw input (R code)
Raw Outputview raw output of R engine
Computing time5 seconds
R Server'Gwilym Jenkins' @ 72.249.127.135


Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation
Y[t] = + 483.691428571429 -11.4133928571428X[t] -3.96173611111105M1[t] -17.4843650793651M2[t] -21.4641964285714M3[t] -26.8440277777778M4[t] -20.4238591269841M5[t] -13.7210119047619M6[t] -14.1008432539683M7[t] -17.2806746031746M8[t] -18.6605059523810M9[t] -22.8403373015873M10[t] -21.2201686507937M11[t] -0.820168650793652t + e[t]


Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares
VariableParameterS.D.T-STAT
H0: parameter = 0
2-tail p-value1-tail p-value
(Intercept)483.69142857142910.49404546.09200
X-11.41339285714289.098821-1.25440.2159060.107953
M1-3.9617361111110511.574235-0.34230.7336590.36683
M2-17.484365079365112.142857-1.43990.1565270.078263
M3-21.464196428571412.126631-1.770.0832130.041607
M4-26.844027777777812.115197-2.21570.031590.015795
M5-20.423859126984112.10857-1.68670.0982830.049142
M6-13.721011904761912.146916-1.12960.2643820.132191
M7-14.100843253968312.120481-1.16340.2505440.125272
M8-17.280674603174612.09881-1.42830.1598190.079909
M9-18.660505952381012.081927-1.54450.1291750.064588
M10-22.840337301587312.069854-1.89230.0646140.032307
M11-21.220168650793712.062604-1.75920.0850570.042529
t-0.8201686507936520.241493-3.39620.0013980.000699


Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.76690115829855
R-squared0.588137386599658
Adjusted R-squared0.474217940339989
F-TEST (value)5.16274794084806
F-TEST (DF numerator)13
F-TEST (DF denominator)47
p-value1.37133299228376e-05
Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics
Residual Standard Deviation19.0688290645920
Sum Squared Residuals17090.1513690476


Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals
Time or IndexActualsInterpolation
Forecast
Residuals
Prediction Error
1449478.909523809523-29.9095238095235
2452464.566726190476-12.5667261904762
3462459.7667261904762.2332738095238
4455453.5667261904761.43327380952374
5461459.1667261904761.83327380952379
6461465.049404761905-4.04940476190479
7463463.849404761905-0.84940476190481
8462459.8494047619052.15059523809525
9456457.649404761905-1.64940476190476
10455452.6494047619052.35059523809522
11456453.4494047619052.55059523809523
12472473.849404761905-1.84940476190477
13472469.06752.93249999999991
14471454.72470238095216.2752976190476
15465449.92470238095215.0752976190476
16459443.72470238095215.2752976190476
17465449.32470238095215.6752976190476
18468455.20738095238112.7926190476190
19467454.00738095238112.9926190476191
20463450.00738095238112.9926190476190
21460447.80738095238112.1926190476190
22462442.80738095238119.1926190476191
23461443.60738095238117.3926190476190
24476464.00738095238111.9926190476190
25476459.22547619047616.7745238095237
26471444.88267857142926.1173214285714
27453440.08267857142912.9173214285714
28443433.8826785714299.11732142857146
29442439.4826785714292.51732142857144
30444445.365357142857-1.36535714285713
31438444.165357142857-6.16535714285712
32427440.165357142857-13.1653571428571
33424437.965357142857-13.9653571428571
34416432.965357142857-16.9653571428571
35406433.765357142857-27.7653571428571
36431454.165357142857-23.1653571428571
37434449.383452380952-15.3834523809524
38418435.040654761905-17.0406547619047
39412430.240654761905-18.2406547619048
40404424.040654761905-20.0406547619047
41409429.640654761905-20.6406547619048
42412424.10994047619-12.1099404761905
43406422.90994047619-16.9099404761905
44398418.90994047619-20.9099404761905
45397416.70994047619-19.7099404761905
46385411.70994047619-26.7099404761905
47390412.50994047619-22.5099404761905
48413432.90994047619-19.9099404761905
49413428.128035714286-15.1280357142858
50401413.785238095238-12.7852380952381
51397408.985238095238-11.9852380952381
52397402.785238095238-5.78523809523807
53409408.3852380952380.614761904761917
54419414.2679166666674.73208333333334
55424413.06791666666710.9320833333334
56428409.06791666666718.9320833333333
57430406.86791666666723.1320833333333
58424401.86791666666722.1320833333333
59433402.66791666666730.3320833333333
60456423.06791666666732.9320833333333
61459418.28601190476240.7139880952381


Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
p-valuesAlternative Hypothesis
breakpoint indexgreater2-sidedless
170.05676785775805590.1135357155161120.943232142241944
180.01714225086726850.0342845017345370.982857749132731
190.005470929090359690.01094185818071940.99452907090964
200.002056540639392790.004113081278785580.997943459360607
210.0005918694303225390.001183738860645080.999408130569677
220.0001749696462689880.0003499392925379750.99982503035373
235.69802119387683e-050.0001139604238775370.999943019788061
241.84628907941010e-053.69257815882019e-050.999981537109206
257.78241757841023e-061.55648351568205e-050.999992217582422
269.0285995226325e-061.8057199045265e-050.999990971400477
270.0006334501453524840.001266900290704970.999366549854648
280.01793694381208530.03587388762417060.982063056187915
290.3474415009713690.6948830019427380.652558499028631
300.612363633301710.7752727333965810.387636366698290
310.8383488598050080.3233022803899840.161651140194992
320.9357964358950310.1284071282099380.0642035641049688
330.9616091818869780.0767816362260450.0383908181130225
340.9858943345353240.02821133092935180.0141056654646759
350.9899375874965560.02012482500688720.0100624125034436
360.9861887144613780.0276225710772440.013811285538622
370.9743109250871870.05137814982562650.0256890749128133
380.9655085067995530.06898298640089290.0344914932004465
390.9528385377191980.09432292456160490.0471614622808024
400.9231330254818060.1537339490363880.0768669745181939
410.867507350716640.2649852985667210.132492649283361
420.9496942422754460.1006115154491080.0503057577245541
430.9819335438508210.03613291229835780.0180664561491789
440.9758139484593640.04837210308127250.0241860515406362


Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
Description# significant tests% significant testsOK/NOK
1% type I error level80.285714285714286NOK
5% type I error level160.571428571428571NOK
10% type I error level200.714285714285714NOK
 
Charts produced by software:
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/19/t1258660888990q65ewn7ufsjp/10rvg41258660840.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/19/t1258660888990q65ewn7ufsjp/10rvg41258660840.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/19/t1258660888990q65ewn7ufsjp/13l6t1258660840.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/19/t1258660888990q65ewn7ufsjp/13l6t1258660840.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/19/t1258660888990q65ewn7ufsjp/2vz2g1258660840.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/19/t1258660888990q65ewn7ufsjp/2vz2g1258660840.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/19/t1258660888990q65ewn7ufsjp/3l0661258660840.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/19/t1258660888990q65ewn7ufsjp/3l0661258660840.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/19/t1258660888990q65ewn7ufsjp/4vv5w1258660840.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/19/t1258660888990q65ewn7ufsjp/4vv5w1258660840.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/19/t1258660888990q65ewn7ufsjp/5orxq1258660840.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/19/t1258660888990q65ewn7ufsjp/5orxq1258660840.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/19/t1258660888990q65ewn7ufsjp/6rhxn1258660840.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/19/t1258660888990q65ewn7ufsjp/6rhxn1258660840.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/19/t1258660888990q65ewn7ufsjp/7h10p1258660840.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/19/t1258660888990q65ewn7ufsjp/7h10p1258660840.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/19/t1258660888990q65ewn7ufsjp/89cca1258660840.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/19/t1258660888990q65ewn7ufsjp/89cca1258660840.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/19/t1258660888990q65ewn7ufsjp/98zkv1258660840.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/19/t1258660888990q65ewn7ufsjp/98zkv1258660840.ps (open in new window)


 
Parameters (Session):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Include Monthly Dummies ; par3 = Linear Trend ;
 
Parameters (R input):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Include Monthly Dummies ; par3 = Linear Trend ;
 
R code (references can be found in the software module):
library(lattice)
library(lmtest)
n25 <- 25 #minimum number of obs. for Goldfeld-Quandt test
par1 <- as.numeric(par1)
x <- t(y)
k <- length(x[1,])
n <- length(x[,1])
x1 <- cbind(x[,par1], x[,1:k!=par1])
mycolnames <- c(colnames(x)[par1], colnames(x)[1:k!=par1])
colnames(x1) <- mycolnames #colnames(x)[par1]
x <- x1
if (par3 == 'First Differences'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n-1,k), dimnames=list(1:(n-1), paste('(1-B)',colnames(x),sep='')))
for (i in 1:n-1) {
for (j in 1:k) {
x2[i,j] <- x[i+1,j] - x[i,j]
}
}
x <- x2
}
if (par2 == 'Include Monthly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,11), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('M', seq(1:11), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:11){
x2[seq(i,n,12),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
if (par2 == 'Include Quarterly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,3), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('Q', seq(1:3), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:3){
x2[seq(i,n,4),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
k <- length(x[1,])
if (par3 == 'Linear Trend'){
x <- cbind(x, c(1:n))
colnames(x)[k+1] <- 't'
}
x
k <- length(x[1,])
df <- as.data.frame(x)
(mylm <- lm(df))
(mysum <- summary(mylm))
if (n > n25) {
kp3 <- k + 3
nmkm3 <- n - k - 3
gqarr <- array(NA, dim=c(nmkm3-kp3+1,3))
numgqtests <- 0
numsignificant1 <- 0
numsignificant5 <- 0
numsignificant10 <- 0
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
j <- 0
numgqtests <- numgqtests + 1
for (myalt in c('greater', 'two.sided', 'less')) {
j <- j + 1
gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,j] <- gqtest(mylm, point=mypoint, alternative=myalt)$p.value
}
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.01) numsignificant1 <- numsignificant1 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.05) numsignificant5 <- numsignificant5 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.10) numsignificant10 <- numsignificant10 + 1
}
gqarr
}
bitmap(file='test0.png')
plot(x[,1], type='l', main='Actuals and Interpolation', ylab='value of Actuals and Interpolation (dots)', xlab='time or index')
points(x[,1]-mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test1.png')
plot(mysum$resid, type='b', pch=19, main='Residuals', ylab='value of Residuals', xlab='time or index')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test2.png')
hist(mysum$resid, main='Residual Histogram', xlab='values of Residuals')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test3.png')
densityplot(~mysum$resid,col='black',main='Residual Density Plot', xlab='values of Residuals')
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test4.png')
qqnorm(mysum$resid, main='Residual Normal Q-Q Plot')
qqline(mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
(myerror <- as.ts(mysum$resid))
bitmap(file='test5.png')
dum <- cbind(lag(myerror,k=1),myerror)
dum
dum1 <- dum[2:length(myerror),]
dum1
z <- as.data.frame(dum1)
z
plot(z,main=paste('Residual Lag plot, lowess, and regression line'), ylab='values of Residuals', xlab='lagged values of Residuals')
lines(lowess(z))
abline(lm(z))
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test6.png')
acf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test7.png')
pacf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Partial Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test8.png')
opar <- par(mfrow = c(2,2), oma = c(0, 0, 1.1, 0))
plot(mylm, las = 1, sub='Residual Diagnostics')
par(opar)
dev.off()
if (n > n25) {
bitmap(file='test9.png')
plot(kp3:nmkm3,gqarr[,2], main='Goldfeld-Quandt test',ylab='2-sided p-value',xlab='breakpoint')
grid()
dev.off()
}
load(file='createtable')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
myeq <- colnames(x)[1]
myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t] = ', sep='')
for (i in 1:k){
if (mysum$coefficients[i,1] > 0) myeq <- paste(myeq, '+', '')
myeq <- paste(myeq, mysum$coefficients[i,1], sep=' ')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != '(Intercept)') {
myeq <- paste(myeq, rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i], sep='')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != 't') myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t]', sep='')
}
}
myeq <- paste(myeq, ' + e[t]')
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, myeq)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable1.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/ols1.htm','Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares',''), 6, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Variable',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Parameter',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'S.D.',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'T-STAT<br />H0: parameter = 0',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'1-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:k){
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i],header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,mysum$coefficients[i,1])
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,2],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,3],4))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4]/2,6))
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable2.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple R',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sqrt(mysum$r.squared))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Adjusted R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$adj.r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (value)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[1])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF numerator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[2])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF denominator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'p-value',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 1-pf(mysum$fstatistic[1],mysum$fstatistic[2],mysum$fstatistic[3]))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residual Standard Deviation',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$sigma)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Sum Squared Residuals',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sum(myerror*myerror))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable3.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals', 4, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Time or Index', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Actuals', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Interpolation<br />Forecast', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residuals<br />Prediction Error', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:n) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,i, 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,x[i])
a<-table.element(a,x[i]-mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.element(a,mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable4.tab')
if (n > n25) {
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'p-values',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Alternative Hypothesis',3,header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'breakpoint index',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'greater',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-sided',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'less',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,mypoint,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,1])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable5.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Description',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'# significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'% significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'OK/NOK',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'1% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant1/numgqtests < 0.01) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'5% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant5/numgqtests < 0.05) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'10% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant10/numgqtests < 0.1) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable6.tab')
}
 





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