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*The author of this computation has been verified*
R Software Module: /rwasp_multipleregression.wasp (opens new window with default values)
Title produced by software: Multiple Regression
Date of computation: Thu, 19 Nov 2009 12:17:04 -0700
 
Cite this page as follows:
Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/19/t1258658281701rkyjyg23soy0.htm/, Retrieved Thu, 19 Nov 2009 20:18:13 +0100
 
BibTeX entries for LaTeX users:
@Manual{KEY,
    author = {{YOUR NAME}},
    publisher = {Office for Research Development and Education},
    title = {Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/19/t1258658281701rkyjyg23soy0.htm/},
    year = {2009},
}
@Manual{R,
    title = {R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing},
    author = {{R Development Core Team}},
    organization = {R Foundation for Statistical Computing},
    address = {Vienna, Austria},
    year = {2009},
    note = {{ISBN} 3-900051-07-0},
    url = {http://www.R-project.org},
}
 
Original text written by user:
 
IsPrivate?
No (this computation is public)
 
User-defined keywords:
 
Dataseries X:
» Textbox « » Textfile « » CSV «
5.4 2.7 5.4 2.5 5.6 2.2 5.7 2.9 5.8 3.1 5.8 3 5.8 2.8 5.9 2.5 6.1 1.9 6.4 1.9 6.4 1.8 6.3 2 6.2 2.6 6.2 2.5 6.3 2.5 6.4 1.6 6.5 1.4 6.6 0.8 6.6 1.1 6.6 1.3 6.8 1.2 7 1.3 7.2 1.1 7.3 1.3 7.5 1.2 7.6 1.6 7.6 1.7 7.7 1.5 7.7 0.9 7.7 1.5 7.7 1.4 7.6 1.6 7.7 1.7 7.9 1.4 7.9 1.8 7.9 1.7 7.8 1.4 7.6 1.2 7.4 1 7 1.7 7 2.4 7.2 2 7.5 2.1 7.8 2 7.8 1.8 7.7 2.7 7.6 2.3 7.6 1.9 7.5 2 7.5 2.3 7.6 2.8 7.6 2.4 7.9 2.3 7.6 2.7 7.5 2.7 7.5 2.9 7.6 3 7.7 2.2 7.8 2.3 7.9 2.8 7.9 2.8
 
Output produced by software:

Enter (or paste) a matrix (table) containing all data (time) series. Every column represents a different variable and must be delimited by a space or Tab. Every row represents a period in time (or category) and must be delimited by hard returns. The easiest way to enter data is to copy and paste a block of spreadsheet cells. Please, do not use commas or spaces to seperate groups of digits!


Summary of computational transaction
Raw Inputview raw input (R code)
Raw Outputview raw output of R engine
Computing time4 seconds
R Server'Gwilym Jenkins' @ 72.249.127.135


Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation
Y[t] = + 6.8925548273832 -0.450048120480993X[t] -0.078750036721978M1[t] -0.120513226375429M2[t] -0.109860556364419M3[t] -0.177209811172647M4[t] -0.115558103571256M5[t] -0.162907358379485M6[t] -0.152254688368474M7[t] -0.112601055947844M8[t] -0.0939560852137923M9[t] -0.00130534002202076M10[t] -0.0176555572398699M11[t] + 0.0383482923986091t + e[t]


Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares
VariableParameterS.D.T-STAT
H0: parameter = 0
2-tail p-value1-tail p-value
(Intercept)6.89255482738320.20104134.284300
X-0.4500481204809930.066701-6.747300
M1-0.0787500367219780.191341-0.41160.6825270.341263
M2-0.1205132263754290.200525-0.6010.5507350.275367
M3-0.1098605563644190.200315-0.54840.5859860.292993
M4-0.1772098111726470.20001-0.8860.3801270.190063
M5-0.1155581035712560.199794-0.57840.5657650.282882
M6-0.1629073583794850.19956-0.81630.4184280.209214
M7-0.1522546883684740.199444-0.76340.4490420.224521
M8-0.1126010559478440.199418-0.56460.5749980.287499
M9-0.09395608521379230.199101-0.47190.6391810.319591
M10-0.001305340022020760.199043-0.00660.9947950.497398
M11-0.01765555723986990.199055-0.08870.92970.46485
t0.03834829239860910.00234816.330500


Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.931216785308685
R-squared0.867164701240642
Adjusted R-squared0.830423022860394
F-TEST (value)23.6016627293439
F-TEST (DF numerator)13
F-TEST (DF denominator)47
p-value2.22044604925031e-16
Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics
Residual Standard Deviation0.314614031618701
Sum Squared Residuals4.65215347789455


Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals
Time or IndexActualsInterpolation
Forecast
Residuals
Prediction Error
15.45.63702315776115-0.237023157761147
25.45.7236178846025-0.323617884602503
35.65.90763328315642-0.307633283156423
45.75.563598636410110.136401363589894
55.85.573589012313910.226410987686092
65.85.609592861952390.190407138047613
75.85.74860344845820.0513965515417942
85.95.96161980942174-0.0616198094217432
96.16.288641944843-0.188641944843001
106.46.41964098243338-0.0196409824333802
116.46.48664386966224-0.08664386966224
126.36.45263809520452-0.152638095204521
136.26.142207478592550.0577925214074454
146.26.183797393385810.0162026066141876
156.36.232798355795430.067201644204567
166.46.60884070181871-0.208840701818707
176.56.79885032591491-0.298850325914906
186.67.05987823579388-0.459878235793882
196.66.9738647620592-0.373864762059204
206.66.96185706278225-0.361857062782245
216.87.063855137963-0.263855137963005
2277.14984936350529-0.149849363505286
237.27.26185706278225-0.0618570627822449
247.37.227851288324530.0721487116754742
257.57.232454356049260.267545643950744
267.67.049020210602020.550979789397982
277.67.053016360963540.546983639036462
287.77.114025022650120.585974977349883
297.77.484053894938710.215946105061288
307.77.20502406024050.494975939759504
317.77.299029834698220.400970165301784
327.67.287022135421260.312977864578743
337.77.299010586505820.400989413494182
347.97.56502406024050.334975939759503
357.97.407002887228860.492997112771141
367.97.508011548915440.391988451084562
377.87.602624240736370.197375759263633
387.67.68921896757772-0.0892189675777252
397.47.82822955408354-0.428229554083542
4077.48419490733723-0.484194907337228
4177.26916122300053-0.269161223000532
427.27.44017950878331-0.240179508783310
437.57.444175659144830.0558243408551698
447.87.567182396012170.23281760398783
457.87.714185283241030.0858147167589713
467.77.440141012398520.259858987601485
477.67.64215833577167-0.0421583357716732
487.67.87818143360255-0.278181433602549
497.57.79277487723108-0.292774877231081
507.57.65434554383194-0.154345543831942
517.67.478322446001060.121677553998935
527.67.62934073178384-0.0293407317838426
537.97.774345543831940.125654456168059
547.67.585325333229920.0146746667700755
557.57.63432629563954-0.134326295639544
567.57.62231859636259-0.122318596362585
577.67.63430704744715-0.0343070474471465
587.78.12534458142232-0.425344581422321
597.88.10233784455498-0.302337844554983
607.97.93331763395297-0.0333176339529647
617.97.89291588962960.00708411037040462


Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
p-valuesAlternative Hypothesis
breakpoint indexgreater2-sidedless
170.001984641674131350.003969283348262710.998015358325869
180.0006175765023728090.001235153004745620.999382423497627
190.0001256030394148160.0002512060788296330.999874396960585
203.82999762714679e-057.65999525429358e-050.999961700023729
211.26262254316843e-052.52524508633686e-050.999987373774568
223.25860107898704e-056.51720215797408e-050.99996741398921
231.61640286270093e-053.23280572540187e-050.999983835971373
240.0003301995040449680.0006603990080899370.999669800495955
250.04720129811358720.09440259622717450.952798701886413
260.1593153920886760.3186307841773520.840684607911324
270.1455921633325350.2911843266650700.854407836667465
280.1587733723094740.3175467446189490.841226627690526
290.1227929733767300.2455859467534590.87720702662327
300.09980579293543510.1996115858708700.900194207064565
310.07219783023148720.1443956604629740.927802169768513
320.04823643571799440.09647287143598870.951763564282006
330.03788713037962050.0757742607592410.96211286962038
340.03627053518062550.0725410703612510.963729464819374
350.04951489746971470.09902979493942930.950485102530285
360.06462745187801880.1292549037560380.935372548121981
370.1065927364105580.2131854728211160.893407263589442
380.1838952023705130.3677904047410250.816104797629488
390.3355919865724420.6711839731448840.664408013427558
400.6629110440702970.6741779118594060.337088955929703
410.8959434020097740.2081131959804530.104056597990226
420.8972218595865640.2055562808268730.102778140413436
430.8046569572083920.3906860855832170.195343042791608
440.7995291334743220.4009417330513560.200470866525678


Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
Description# significant tests% significant testsOK/NOK
1% type I error level80.285714285714286NOK
5% type I error level80.285714285714286NOK
10% type I error level130.464285714285714NOK
 
Charts produced by software:
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/19/t1258658281701rkyjyg23soy0/10rvwf1258658219.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/19/t1258658281701rkyjyg23soy0/10rvwf1258658219.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/19/t1258658281701rkyjyg23soy0/19ffs1258658219.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/19/t1258658281701rkyjyg23soy0/19ffs1258658219.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/19/t1258658281701rkyjyg23soy0/22ctf1258658219.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/19/t1258658281701rkyjyg23soy0/22ctf1258658219.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/19/t1258658281701rkyjyg23soy0/3d0ot1258658219.png (open in new window)
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http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/19/t1258658281701rkyjyg23soy0/4pfm01258658219.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/19/t1258658281701rkyjyg23soy0/4pfm01258658219.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/19/t1258658281701rkyjyg23soy0/5wt6m1258658219.png (open in new window)
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http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/19/t1258658281701rkyjyg23soy0/6amq81258658219.png (open in new window)
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http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/19/t1258658281701rkyjyg23soy0/7g0xn1258658219.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/19/t1258658281701rkyjyg23soy0/7g0xn1258658219.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/19/t1258658281701rkyjyg23soy0/8z3yk1258658219.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/19/t1258658281701rkyjyg23soy0/8z3yk1258658219.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/19/t1258658281701rkyjyg23soy0/98j0y1258658219.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/19/t1258658281701rkyjyg23soy0/98j0y1258658219.ps (open in new window)


 
Parameters (Session):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Include Monthly Dummies ; par3 = Linear Trend ;
 
Parameters (R input):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Include Monthly Dummies ; par3 = Linear Trend ;
 
R code (references can be found in the software module):
library(lattice)
library(lmtest)
n25 <- 25 #minimum number of obs. for Goldfeld-Quandt test
par1 <- as.numeric(par1)
x <- t(y)
k <- length(x[1,])
n <- length(x[,1])
x1 <- cbind(x[,par1], x[,1:k!=par1])
mycolnames <- c(colnames(x)[par1], colnames(x)[1:k!=par1])
colnames(x1) <- mycolnames #colnames(x)[par1]
x <- x1
if (par3 == 'First Differences'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n-1,k), dimnames=list(1:(n-1), paste('(1-B)',colnames(x),sep='')))
for (i in 1:n-1) {
for (j in 1:k) {
x2[i,j] <- x[i+1,j] - x[i,j]
}
}
x <- x2
}
if (par2 == 'Include Monthly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,11), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('M', seq(1:11), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:11){
x2[seq(i,n,12),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
if (par2 == 'Include Quarterly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,3), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('Q', seq(1:3), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:3){
x2[seq(i,n,4),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
k <- length(x[1,])
if (par3 == 'Linear Trend'){
x <- cbind(x, c(1:n))
colnames(x)[k+1] <- 't'
}
x
k <- length(x[1,])
df <- as.data.frame(x)
(mylm <- lm(df))
(mysum <- summary(mylm))
if (n > n25) {
kp3 <- k + 3
nmkm3 <- n - k - 3
gqarr <- array(NA, dim=c(nmkm3-kp3+1,3))
numgqtests <- 0
numsignificant1 <- 0
numsignificant5 <- 0
numsignificant10 <- 0
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
j <- 0
numgqtests <- numgqtests + 1
for (myalt in c('greater', 'two.sided', 'less')) {
j <- j + 1
gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,j] <- gqtest(mylm, point=mypoint, alternative=myalt)$p.value
}
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.01) numsignificant1 <- numsignificant1 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.05) numsignificant5 <- numsignificant5 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.10) numsignificant10 <- numsignificant10 + 1
}
gqarr
}
bitmap(file='test0.png')
plot(x[,1], type='l', main='Actuals and Interpolation', ylab='value of Actuals and Interpolation (dots)', xlab='time or index')
points(x[,1]-mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test1.png')
plot(mysum$resid, type='b', pch=19, main='Residuals', ylab='value of Residuals', xlab='time or index')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test2.png')
hist(mysum$resid, main='Residual Histogram', xlab='values of Residuals')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test3.png')
densityplot(~mysum$resid,col='black',main='Residual Density Plot', xlab='values of Residuals')
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test4.png')
qqnorm(mysum$resid, main='Residual Normal Q-Q Plot')
qqline(mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
(myerror <- as.ts(mysum$resid))
bitmap(file='test5.png')
dum <- cbind(lag(myerror,k=1),myerror)
dum
dum1 <- dum[2:length(myerror),]
dum1
z <- as.data.frame(dum1)
z
plot(z,main=paste('Residual Lag plot, lowess, and regression line'), ylab='values of Residuals', xlab='lagged values of Residuals')
lines(lowess(z))
abline(lm(z))
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test6.png')
acf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test7.png')
pacf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Partial Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test8.png')
opar <- par(mfrow = c(2,2), oma = c(0, 0, 1.1, 0))
plot(mylm, las = 1, sub='Residual Diagnostics')
par(opar)
dev.off()
if (n > n25) {
bitmap(file='test9.png')
plot(kp3:nmkm3,gqarr[,2], main='Goldfeld-Quandt test',ylab='2-sided p-value',xlab='breakpoint')
grid()
dev.off()
}
load(file='createtable')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
myeq <- colnames(x)[1]
myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t] = ', sep='')
for (i in 1:k){
if (mysum$coefficients[i,1] > 0) myeq <- paste(myeq, '+', '')
myeq <- paste(myeq, mysum$coefficients[i,1], sep=' ')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != '(Intercept)') {
myeq <- paste(myeq, rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i], sep='')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != 't') myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t]', sep='')
}
}
myeq <- paste(myeq, ' + e[t]')
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, myeq)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable1.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/ols1.htm','Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares',''), 6, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Variable',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Parameter',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'S.D.',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'T-STAT<br />H0: parameter = 0',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'1-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:k){
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i],header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,mysum$coefficients[i,1])
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,2],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,3],4))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4]/2,6))
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable2.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple R',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sqrt(mysum$r.squared))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Adjusted R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$adj.r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (value)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[1])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF numerator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[2])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF denominator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'p-value',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 1-pf(mysum$fstatistic[1],mysum$fstatistic[2],mysum$fstatistic[3]))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residual Standard Deviation',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$sigma)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Sum Squared Residuals',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sum(myerror*myerror))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable3.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals', 4, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Time or Index', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Actuals', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Interpolation<br />Forecast', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residuals<br />Prediction Error', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:n) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,i, 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,x[i])
a<-table.element(a,x[i]-mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.element(a,mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable4.tab')
if (n > n25) {
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'p-values',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Alternative Hypothesis',3,header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'breakpoint index',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'greater',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-sided',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'less',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,mypoint,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,1])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable5.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Description',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'# significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'% significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'OK/NOK',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'1% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant1/numgqtests < 0.01) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'5% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant5/numgqtests < 0.05) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'10% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant10/numgqtests < 0.1) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable6.tab')
}
 





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