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model 5

*The author of this computation has been verified*
R Software Module: /rwasp_multipleregression.wasp (opens new window with default values)
Title produced by software: Multiple Regression
Date of computation: Thu, 19 Nov 2009 01:51:35 -0700
 
Cite this page as follows:
Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/19/t1258620989z144dgiv07t546s.htm/, Retrieved Thu, 19 Nov 2009 09:56:41 +0100
 
BibTeX entries for LaTeX users:
@Manual{KEY,
    author = {{YOUR NAME}},
    publisher = {Office for Research Development and Education},
    title = {Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/19/t1258620989z144dgiv07t546s.htm/},
    year = {2009},
}
@Manual{R,
    title = {R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing},
    author = {{R Development Core Team}},
    organization = {R Foundation for Statistical Computing},
    address = {Vienna, Austria},
    year = {2009},
    note = {{ISBN} 3-900051-07-0},
    url = {http://www.R-project.org},
}
 
Original text written by user:
 
IsPrivate?
No (this computation is public)
 
User-defined keywords:
 
Dataseries X:
» Textbox « » Textfile « » CSV «
135 0 139 149 130 0 135 139 127 0 130 135 122 0 127 130 117 0 122 127 112 0 117 122 113 0 112 117 149 0 113 112 157 0 149 113 157 0 157 149 147 0 157 157 137 0 147 157 132 0 137 147 125 0 132 137 123 0 125 132 117 0 123 125 114 0 117 123 111 0 114 117 112 0 111 114 144 0 112 111 150 0 144 112 149 0 150 144 134 0 149 150 123 0 134 149 116 0 123 134 117 0 116 123 111 0 117 116 105 0 111 117 102 0 105 111 95 0 102 105 93 0 95 102 124 0 93 95 130 0 124 93 124 0 130 124 115 0 124 130 106 0 115 124 105 0 106 115 105 0 105 106 101 0 105 105 95 0 101 105 93 0 95 101 84 0 93 95 87 0 84 93 116 0 87 84 120 0 116 87 117 1 120 116 109 1 117 120 105 1 109 117 107 1 105 109 109 1 107 105 109 1 109 107 108 1 109 109 107 1 108 109 99 1 107 108 103 1 99 107 131 1 103 99 137 1 131 103 135 1 137 131
 
Output produced by software:

Enter (or paste) a matrix (table) containing all data (time) series. Every column represents a different variable and must be delimited by a space or Tab. Every row represents a period in time (or category) and must be delimited by hard returns. The easiest way to enter data is to copy and paste a block of spreadsheet cells. Please, do not use commas or spaces to seperate groups of digits!


Summary of computational transaction
Raw Inputview raw input (R code)
Raw Outputview raw output of R engine
Computing time3 seconds
R Server'Gwilym Jenkins' @ 72.249.127.135


Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation
WLH[t] = + 12.3068296466899 + 4.33014916145824X[t] + 1.01868507239736`Y(t-1)`[t] -0.148970908506937`Y(t-2)`[t] + 4.26344451199578M1[t] + 4.33777525395675M2[t] + 2.85371517838113M3[t] + 0.970842279890648M4[t] + 2.74283742150709M5[t] -1.39068521698368M6[t] + 6.24100022216994M7[t] + 35.1906468259991M8[t] + 9.74545135874112M9[t] + 5.14442295711167M10[t] -1.95298550853488M11[t] -0.129219519629923t + e[t]


Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares
VariableParameterS.D.T-STAT
H0: parameter = 0
2-tail p-value1-tail p-value
(Intercept)12.30682964668998.193041.50210.1405510.070276
X4.330149161458241.3407063.22980.0024080.001204
`Y(t-1)`1.018685072397360.1444557.051900
`Y(t-2)`-0.1489709085069370.14104-1.05620.2968990.148449
M14.263444511995781.6813372.53570.015030.007515
M24.337775253956752.0286132.13830.0383550.019177
M32.853715178381132.1444121.33080.1904450.095223
M40.9708422798906482.087890.4650.6443420.322171
M52.742837421507092.0520611.33660.1885410.09427
M6-1.390685216983682.245373-0.61940.5390270.269514
M76.241000222169942.1849152.85640.0066350.003317
M835.19064682599912.70429113.012900
M99.745451358741126.0799081.60290.1164530.058227
M105.144422957111672.8146231.82770.0746970.037349
M11-1.952985508534882.059561-0.94830.3484250.174213
t-0.1292195196299230.051414-2.51330.0158840.007942


Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.993002779799179
R-squared0.986054520688897
Adjusted R-squared0.981073992363503
F-TEST (value)197.98191201149
F-TEST (DF numerator)15
F-TEST (DF denominator)42
p-value0
Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics
Residual Standard Deviation2.38810920845841
Sum Squared Residuals239.528754844003


Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals
Time or IndexActualsInterpolation
Forecast
Residuals
Prediction Error
1135135.841614334755-0.841614334755449
2130133.201694352566-3.20169435256636
3127127.090873029402-0.0908730294017102
4122122.767579936624-0.767579936623912
5117119.763842922144-2.76384292214445
6112111.1525299445720.847470055428355
7113114.306425044643-1.30642504464321
8149144.8903917437754.10960825622543
9157155.8396684546851.16033154531534
10157153.8959484063543.10405159364556
11147145.4775531530221.52244684697752
12137137.114468417954-0.114468417953803
13132132.551551771415-0.551551771415443
14125128.892946716829-3.89294671682906
15123120.8937261573772.10627384262333
16117117.88705995401-0.887059954010097
17114113.7156669586260.284333041373675
18111107.2906950343553.70930496564482
19112112.184018462208-0.184018462207592
20144142.4700433443251.52995665567495
21150149.3445797656460.655420234354274
22149145.9593732065493.04062679345147
23134136.820234697833-2.82023469783308
24123123.512695509285-0.512695509284553
25116118.675948332883-2.6759483328835
26117113.1289440420093.87105595799067
27111113.577145878750-2.57714587874970
28105105.303972117738-0.303972117738187
29102101.7284627563820.271537243617835
309595.303490832111-0.303490832111012
319396.122073970374-3.12207397037399
32124123.9479272693270.0520727306728794
33130130.250691343771-0.250691343771236
34124127.014455693181-3.01445569318098
35115112.7818918224792.21810817752128
36106106.331317610849-0.331317610849049
37105102.6381151282012.36188487179890
38105102.9052794546972.09472054530279
39101101.440970767999-0.440970767998598
409595.3541380602887-0.354138060288751
419391.48068688191881.51931311808115
428486.074400030045-2.07440003004506
438784.70664211500642.29335788499362
44116117.923862592960-1.92386259296019
45120121.444401980075-1.44440198007489
46117120.798887163162-3.79888716316202
47109109.920320326666-0.92032032666572
48105104.0415184619130.958481538087397
49107105.2927704327451.70722956725549
50109107.8711354338981.12886456610197
51109107.9972841664731.00271583352667
52108105.6872499313392.31275006866095
53107106.3113404809280.688659519071789
5499101.178884158917-2.1788841589171
55103100.6808404077692.31915959223117
56131134.767775049613-3.76777504961307
57137137.120658455823-0.120658455823482
58135134.3313355307540.668664469245966


Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
p-valuesAlternative Hypothesis
breakpoint indexgreater2-sidedless
190.1928301440167460.3856602880334930.807169855983254
200.1405758072832620.2811516145665240.859424192716738
210.07171626802002370.1434325360400470.928283731979976
220.2088512348810680.4177024697621360.791148765118932
230.562890318441680.8742193631166390.437109681558319
240.448769864913390.897539729826780.55123013508661
250.5222636317125890.9554727365748220.477736368287411
260.886980994536390.2260380109272190.113019005463609
270.893233021010320.2135339579793600.106766978989680
280.8514544368645610.2970911262708770.148545563135439
290.784678279373040.430643441253920.21532172062696
300.7862748313098620.4274503373802760.213725168690138
310.906478906318790.1870421873624190.0935210936812095
320.945540947134920.1089181057301610.0544590528650805
330.9615349003006350.07693019939872930.0384650996993647
340.9477385481920840.1045229036158310.0522614518079157
350.9806717188778770.03865656224424670.0193282811221234
360.9588851980744120.08222960385117560.0411148019255878
370.9420681801253940.1158636397492130.0579318198746063
380.9638639955200630.07227200895987480.0361360044799374
390.9887217757141460.02255644857170790.0112782242858540


Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
Description# significant tests% significant testsOK/NOK
1% type I error level00OK
5% type I error level20.0952380952380952NOK
10% type I error level50.238095238095238NOK
 
Charts produced by software:
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/19/t1258620989z144dgiv07t546s/109hsb1258620691.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/19/t1258620989z144dgiv07t546s/109hsb1258620691.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/19/t1258620989z144dgiv07t546s/1z6b21258620691.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/19/t1258620989z144dgiv07t546s/1z6b21258620691.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/19/t1258620989z144dgiv07t546s/2a3p81258620691.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/19/t1258620989z144dgiv07t546s/2a3p81258620691.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/19/t1258620989z144dgiv07t546s/3euwh1258620691.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/19/t1258620989z144dgiv07t546s/3euwh1258620691.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/19/t1258620989z144dgiv07t546s/4njiz1258620691.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/19/t1258620989z144dgiv07t546s/4njiz1258620691.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/19/t1258620989z144dgiv07t546s/58bg61258620691.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/19/t1258620989z144dgiv07t546s/58bg61258620691.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/19/t1258620989z144dgiv07t546s/68xwq1258620691.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/19/t1258620989z144dgiv07t546s/68xwq1258620691.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/19/t1258620989z144dgiv07t546s/7wjgd1258620691.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/19/t1258620989z144dgiv07t546s/7wjgd1258620691.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/19/t1258620989z144dgiv07t546s/8qdmk1258620691.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/19/t1258620989z144dgiv07t546s/8qdmk1258620691.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/19/t1258620989z144dgiv07t546s/9ixx21258620691.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/19/t1258620989z144dgiv07t546s/9ixx21258620691.ps (open in new window)


 
Parameters (Session):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Include Monthly Dummies ; par3 = Linear Trend ;
 
Parameters (R input):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Include Monthly Dummies ; par3 = Linear Trend ;
 
R code (references can be found in the software module):
library(lattice)
library(lmtest)
n25 <- 25 #minimum number of obs. for Goldfeld-Quandt test
par1 <- as.numeric(par1)
x <- t(y)
k <- length(x[1,])
n <- length(x[,1])
x1 <- cbind(x[,par1], x[,1:k!=par1])
mycolnames <- c(colnames(x)[par1], colnames(x)[1:k!=par1])
colnames(x1) <- mycolnames #colnames(x)[par1]
x <- x1
if (par3 == 'First Differences'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n-1,k), dimnames=list(1:(n-1), paste('(1-B)',colnames(x),sep='')))
for (i in 1:n-1) {
for (j in 1:k) {
x2[i,j] <- x[i+1,j] - x[i,j]
}
}
x <- x2
}
if (par2 == 'Include Monthly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,11), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('M', seq(1:11), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:11){
x2[seq(i,n,12),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
if (par2 == 'Include Quarterly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,3), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('Q', seq(1:3), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:3){
x2[seq(i,n,4),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
k <- length(x[1,])
if (par3 == 'Linear Trend'){
x <- cbind(x, c(1:n))
colnames(x)[k+1] <- 't'
}
x
k <- length(x[1,])
df <- as.data.frame(x)
(mylm <- lm(df))
(mysum <- summary(mylm))
if (n > n25) {
kp3 <- k + 3
nmkm3 <- n - k - 3
gqarr <- array(NA, dim=c(nmkm3-kp3+1,3))
numgqtests <- 0
numsignificant1 <- 0
numsignificant5 <- 0
numsignificant10 <- 0
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
j <- 0
numgqtests <- numgqtests + 1
for (myalt in c('greater', 'two.sided', 'less')) {
j <- j + 1
gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,j] <- gqtest(mylm, point=mypoint, alternative=myalt)$p.value
}
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.01) numsignificant1 <- numsignificant1 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.05) numsignificant5 <- numsignificant5 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.10) numsignificant10 <- numsignificant10 + 1
}
gqarr
}
bitmap(file='test0.png')
plot(x[,1], type='l', main='Actuals and Interpolation', ylab='value of Actuals and Interpolation (dots)', xlab='time or index')
points(x[,1]-mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test1.png')
plot(mysum$resid, type='b', pch=19, main='Residuals', ylab='value of Residuals', xlab='time or index')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test2.png')
hist(mysum$resid, main='Residual Histogram', xlab='values of Residuals')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test3.png')
densityplot(~mysum$resid,col='black',main='Residual Density Plot', xlab='values of Residuals')
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test4.png')
qqnorm(mysum$resid, main='Residual Normal Q-Q Plot')
qqline(mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
(myerror <- as.ts(mysum$resid))
bitmap(file='test5.png')
dum <- cbind(lag(myerror,k=1),myerror)
dum
dum1 <- dum[2:length(myerror),]
dum1
z <- as.data.frame(dum1)
z
plot(z,main=paste('Residual Lag plot, lowess, and regression line'), ylab='values of Residuals', xlab='lagged values of Residuals')
lines(lowess(z))
abline(lm(z))
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test6.png')
acf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test7.png')
pacf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Partial Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test8.png')
opar <- par(mfrow = c(2,2), oma = c(0, 0, 1.1, 0))
plot(mylm, las = 1, sub='Residual Diagnostics')
par(opar)
dev.off()
if (n > n25) {
bitmap(file='test9.png')
plot(kp3:nmkm3,gqarr[,2], main='Goldfeld-Quandt test',ylab='2-sided p-value',xlab='breakpoint')
grid()
dev.off()
}
load(file='createtable')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
myeq <- colnames(x)[1]
myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t] = ', sep='')
for (i in 1:k){
if (mysum$coefficients[i,1] > 0) myeq <- paste(myeq, '+', '')
myeq <- paste(myeq, mysum$coefficients[i,1], sep=' ')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != '(Intercept)') {
myeq <- paste(myeq, rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i], sep='')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != 't') myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t]', sep='')
}
}
myeq <- paste(myeq, ' + e[t]')
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, myeq)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable1.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/ols1.htm','Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares',''), 6, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Variable',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Parameter',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'S.D.',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'T-STAT<br />H0: parameter = 0',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'1-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:k){
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i],header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,mysum$coefficients[i,1])
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,2],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,3],4))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4]/2,6))
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable2.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple R',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sqrt(mysum$r.squared))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Adjusted R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$adj.r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (value)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[1])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF numerator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[2])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF denominator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'p-value',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 1-pf(mysum$fstatistic[1],mysum$fstatistic[2],mysum$fstatistic[3]))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residual Standard Deviation',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$sigma)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Sum Squared Residuals',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sum(myerror*myerror))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable3.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals', 4, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Time or Index', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Actuals', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Interpolation<br />Forecast', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residuals<br />Prediction Error', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:n) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,i, 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,x[i])
a<-table.element(a,x[i]-mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.element(a,mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable4.tab')
if (n > n25) {
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'p-values',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Alternative Hypothesis',3,header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'breakpoint index',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'greater',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-sided',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'less',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,mypoint,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,1])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable5.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Description',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'# significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'% significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'OK/NOK',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'1% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant1/numgqtests < 0.01) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'5% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant5/numgqtests < 0.05) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'10% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant10/numgqtests < 0.1) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable6.tab')
}
 





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