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Model 3

*The author of this computation has been verified*
R Software Module: /rwasp_multipleregression.wasp (opens new window with default values)
Title produced by software: Multiple Regression
Date of computation: Wed, 18 Nov 2009 11:55:42 -0700
 
Cite this page as follows:
Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/18/t12585706402g5xvzyzblg1gf1.htm/, Retrieved Wed, 18 Nov 2009 19:57:33 +0100
 
BibTeX entries for LaTeX users:
@Manual{KEY,
    author = {{YOUR NAME}},
    publisher = {Office for Research Development and Education},
    title = {Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/18/t12585706402g5xvzyzblg1gf1.htm/},
    year = {2009},
}
@Manual{R,
    title = {R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing},
    author = {{R Development Core Team}},
    organization = {R Foundation for Statistical Computing},
    address = {Vienna, Austria},
    year = {2009},
    note = {{ISBN} 3-900051-07-0},
    url = {http://www.R-project.org},
}
 
Original text written by user:
 
IsPrivate?
No (this computation is public)
 
User-defined keywords:
 
Dataseries X:
» Textbox « » Textfile « » CSV «
562 0 561 0 555 0 544 0 537 0 543 0 594 0 611 0 613 0 611 0 594 0 595 0 591 0 589 0 584 0 573 0 567 0 569 0 621 0 629 0 628 0 612 0 595 0 597 0 593 0 590 0 580 0 574 0 573 0 573 0 620 0 626 0 620 0 588 0 566 0 557 0 561 0 549 0 532 0 526 0 511 0 499 0 555 0 565 0 542 0 527 1 510 1 514 1 517 1 508 1 493 1 490 1 469 1 478 1 528 1 534 1 518 1 506 1 502 1 516 1 528 1
 
Output produced by software:

Enter (or paste) a matrix (table) containing all data (time) series. Every column represents a different variable and must be delimited by a space or Tab. Every row represents a period in time (or category) and must be delimited by hard returns. The easiest way to enter data is to copy and paste a block of spreadsheet cells. Please, do not use commas or spaces to seperate groups of digits!


Summary of computational transaction
Raw Inputview raw input (R code)
Raw Outputview raw output of R engine
Computing time3 seconds
R Server'Gwilym Jenkins' @ 72.249.127.135


Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation
Y[t] = + 603.15761589404 -47.1084437086093X[t] -4.23420713760115M1[t] -13.742310522443M2[t] -23.5502483443709M3[t] -30.1581861662987M4[t] -39.3661239882266M5[t] -37.5740618101545M6[t] + 14.4180003679176M7[t] + 24.6100625459897M8[t] + 16.6021247240618M9[t] + 11.4158756438558M10[t] -3.19206217807213M11[t] -0.792062178072112t + e[t]


Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares
VariableParameterS.D.T-STAT
H0: parameter = 0
2-tail p-value1-tail p-value
(Intercept)603.1576158940411.11340354.27300
X-47.10844370860939.524173-4.94621e-055e-06
M1-4.2342071376011512.578523-0.33660.73790.36895
M2-13.74231052244313.199876-1.04110.3031580.151579
M3-23.550248344370913.185621-1.78610.0805420.040271
M4-30.158186166298713.1756-2.28890.0266220.013311
M5-39.366123988226613.169824-2.98910.004440.00222
M6-37.574061810154513.168298-2.85340.0064130.003207
M714.418000367917613.1710241.09470.2792370.139619
M824.610062545989713.1781.86750.0680730.034037
M916.602124724061813.1892171.25880.2143320.107166
M1011.415875643855813.1190810.87020.3886280.194314
M11-3.1920621780721313.112678-0.24340.8087290.404365
t-0.7920621780721120.23663-3.34730.0016130.000807


Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.898611226493912
R-squared0.807502136380892
Adjusted R-squared0.754258046443692
F-TEST (value)15.1660426036640
F-TEST (DF numerator)13
F-TEST (DF denominator)47
p-value1.21302967670545e-12
Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics
Residual Standard Deviation20.7295874110486
Sum Squared Residuals20196.6423289183


Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals
Time or IndexActualsInterpolation
Forecast
Residuals
Prediction Error
1562598.131346578366-36.1313465783663
2561587.831181015452-26.8311810154525
3555577.231181015453-22.2311810154525
4544569.831181015453-25.8311810154526
5537559.831181015452-22.8311810154525
6543560.831181015453-17.8311810154526
7594612.031181015453-18.0311810154526
8611621.431181015453-10.4311810154526
9613612.6311810154530.368818984547442
10611606.6528697571744.34713024282562
11594591.2528697571742.74713024282559
12595593.6528697571741.34713024282558
13591588.6266004415012.37339955849886
14589578.32643487858710.6735651214128
15584567.72643487858716.2735651214128
16573560.32643487858712.6735651214128
17567550.32643487858716.6735651214128
18569551.32643487858717.6735651214128
19621602.52643487858718.4735651214128
20629611.92643487858717.0735651214128
21628603.12643487858724.8735651214128
22612597.14812362030914.8518763796910
23595581.74812362030913.2518763796910
24597584.14812362030912.8518763796909
25593579.12185430463613.8781456953642
26590568.82168874172221.1783112582781
27580558.22168874172221.7783112582782
28574550.82168874172223.1783112582782
29573540.82168874172232.1783112582781
30573541.82168874172231.1783112582782
31620593.02168874172226.9783112582782
32626602.42168874172223.5783112582782
33620593.62168874172226.3783112582781
34588587.6433774834440.356622516556293
35566572.243377483444-6.2433774834437
36557574.643377483444-17.6433774834437
37561569.61710816777-8.61710816777045
38549559.316942604857-10.3169426048565
39532548.716942604857-16.7169426048565
40526541.316942604857-15.3169426048565
41511531.316942604857-20.3169426048565
42499532.316942604856-33.3169426048565
43555583.516942604856-28.5169426048565
44565592.916942604857-27.9169426048565
45542584.116942604856-42.1169426048565
46527531.030187637969-4.0301876379691
47510515.630187637969-5.63018763796909
48514518.030187637969-4.03018763796912
49517513.0039183222963.99608167770415
50508502.7037527593825.29624724061811
51493492.1037527593820.896247240618112
52490484.7037527593825.2962472406181
53469474.703752759382-5.70375275938191
54478475.7037527593822.29624724061811
55528526.9037527593821.09624724061811
56534536.303752759382-2.30375275938188
57518527.503752759382-9.5037527593819
58506521.525441501104-15.5254415011038
59502506.125441501104-4.12544150110375
60516508.5254415011047.47455849889623
61528503.49917218543024.5008278145695


Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
p-valuesAlternative Hypothesis
breakpoint indexgreater2-sidedless
177.91941746080157e-050.0001583883492160310.999920805825392
185.68226199005055e-050.0001136452398010110.9999431773801
195.78908937844706e-061.15781787568941e-050.999994210910622
200.0002677368233880960.0005354736467761920.999732263176612
210.000663629169330690.001327258338661380.99933637083067
220.01129028059426410.02258056118852820.988709719405736
230.02209591412244320.04419182824488630.977904085877557
240.02489657478685620.04979314957371250.975103425213144
250.02225340599745100.04450681199490210.97774659400255
260.01528576871524320.03057153743048640.984714231284757
270.01249915967387260.02499831934774530.987500840326127
280.006961432103635360.01392286420727070.993038567896365
290.004765993640842490.009531987281684980.995234006359157
300.004472059265422830.008944118530845660.995527940734577
310.005080942097145350.01016188419429070.994919057902855
320.01100543753950790.02201087507901570.988994562460492
330.3022985707722250.6045971415444510.697701429227775
340.8916030255774160.2167939488451690.108396974422584
350.9911810994972610.01763780100547710.00881890050273855
360.9963943771822470.007211245635505750.00360562281775287
370.9949633515946470.01007329681070670.00503664840535333
380.9948223997954090.01035520040918260.00517760020459128
390.9942908125101570.01141837497968590.00570918748984294
400.9904308506888930.01913829862221430.00956914931110716
410.9916681427419820.01666371451603560.00833185725801782
420.9851548679771430.02969026404571460.0148451320228573
430.9628119077418710.07437618451625720.0371880922581286
440.9102714397723430.1794571204553140.0897285602276571


Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
Description# significant tests% significant testsOK/NOK
1% type I error level80.285714285714286NOK
5% type I error level240.857142857142857NOK
10% type I error level250.892857142857143NOK
 
Charts produced by software:
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/18/t12585706402g5xvzyzblg1gf1/109glc1258570538.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/18/t12585706402g5xvzyzblg1gf1/109glc1258570538.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/18/t12585706402g5xvzyzblg1gf1/13hhj1258570537.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/18/t12585706402g5xvzyzblg1gf1/13hhj1258570537.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/18/t12585706402g5xvzyzblg1gf1/2m7kl1258570537.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/18/t12585706402g5xvzyzblg1gf1/2m7kl1258570537.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/18/t12585706402g5xvzyzblg1gf1/3vzkc1258570537.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/18/t12585706402g5xvzyzblg1gf1/3vzkc1258570537.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/18/t12585706402g5xvzyzblg1gf1/4k31b1258570537.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/18/t12585706402g5xvzyzblg1gf1/4k31b1258570537.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/18/t12585706402g5xvzyzblg1gf1/54wwr1258570537.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/18/t12585706402g5xvzyzblg1gf1/54wwr1258570537.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/18/t12585706402g5xvzyzblg1gf1/666as1258570537.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/18/t12585706402g5xvzyzblg1gf1/666as1258570537.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/18/t12585706402g5xvzyzblg1gf1/7pbtr1258570538.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/18/t12585706402g5xvzyzblg1gf1/7pbtr1258570538.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/18/t12585706402g5xvzyzblg1gf1/8vr0s1258570538.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/18/t12585706402g5xvzyzblg1gf1/8vr0s1258570538.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/18/t12585706402g5xvzyzblg1gf1/9c98x1258570538.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/18/t12585706402g5xvzyzblg1gf1/9c98x1258570538.ps (open in new window)


 
Parameters (Session):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Include Monthly Dummies ; par3 = Linear Trend ;
 
Parameters (R input):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Include Monthly Dummies ; par3 = Linear Trend ;
 
R code (references can be found in the software module):
library(lattice)
library(lmtest)
n25 <- 25 #minimum number of obs. for Goldfeld-Quandt test
par1 <- as.numeric(par1)
x <- t(y)
k <- length(x[1,])
n <- length(x[,1])
x1 <- cbind(x[,par1], x[,1:k!=par1])
mycolnames <- c(colnames(x)[par1], colnames(x)[1:k!=par1])
colnames(x1) <- mycolnames #colnames(x)[par1]
x <- x1
if (par3 == 'First Differences'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n-1,k), dimnames=list(1:(n-1), paste('(1-B)',colnames(x),sep='')))
for (i in 1:n-1) {
for (j in 1:k) {
x2[i,j] <- x[i+1,j] - x[i,j]
}
}
x <- x2
}
if (par2 == 'Include Monthly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,11), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('M', seq(1:11), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:11){
x2[seq(i,n,12),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
if (par2 == 'Include Quarterly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,3), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('Q', seq(1:3), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:3){
x2[seq(i,n,4),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
k <- length(x[1,])
if (par3 == 'Linear Trend'){
x <- cbind(x, c(1:n))
colnames(x)[k+1] <- 't'
}
x
k <- length(x[1,])
df <- as.data.frame(x)
(mylm <- lm(df))
(mysum <- summary(mylm))
if (n > n25) {
kp3 <- k + 3
nmkm3 <- n - k - 3
gqarr <- array(NA, dim=c(nmkm3-kp3+1,3))
numgqtests <- 0
numsignificant1 <- 0
numsignificant5 <- 0
numsignificant10 <- 0
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
j <- 0
numgqtests <- numgqtests + 1
for (myalt in c('greater', 'two.sided', 'less')) {
j <- j + 1
gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,j] <- gqtest(mylm, point=mypoint, alternative=myalt)$p.value
}
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.01) numsignificant1 <- numsignificant1 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.05) numsignificant5 <- numsignificant5 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.10) numsignificant10 <- numsignificant10 + 1
}
gqarr
}
bitmap(file='test0.png')
plot(x[,1], type='l', main='Actuals and Interpolation', ylab='value of Actuals and Interpolation (dots)', xlab='time or index')
points(x[,1]-mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test1.png')
plot(mysum$resid, type='b', pch=19, main='Residuals', ylab='value of Residuals', xlab='time or index')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test2.png')
hist(mysum$resid, main='Residual Histogram', xlab='values of Residuals')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test3.png')
densityplot(~mysum$resid,col='black',main='Residual Density Plot', xlab='values of Residuals')
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test4.png')
qqnorm(mysum$resid, main='Residual Normal Q-Q Plot')
qqline(mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
(myerror <- as.ts(mysum$resid))
bitmap(file='test5.png')
dum <- cbind(lag(myerror,k=1),myerror)
dum
dum1 <- dum[2:length(myerror),]
dum1
z <- as.data.frame(dum1)
z
plot(z,main=paste('Residual Lag plot, lowess, and regression line'), ylab='values of Residuals', xlab='lagged values of Residuals')
lines(lowess(z))
abline(lm(z))
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test6.png')
acf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test7.png')
pacf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Partial Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test8.png')
opar <- par(mfrow = c(2,2), oma = c(0, 0, 1.1, 0))
plot(mylm, las = 1, sub='Residual Diagnostics')
par(opar)
dev.off()
if (n > n25) {
bitmap(file='test9.png')
plot(kp3:nmkm3,gqarr[,2], main='Goldfeld-Quandt test',ylab='2-sided p-value',xlab='breakpoint')
grid()
dev.off()
}
load(file='createtable')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
myeq <- colnames(x)[1]
myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t] = ', sep='')
for (i in 1:k){
if (mysum$coefficients[i,1] > 0) myeq <- paste(myeq, '+', '')
myeq <- paste(myeq, mysum$coefficients[i,1], sep=' ')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != '(Intercept)') {
myeq <- paste(myeq, rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i], sep='')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != 't') myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t]', sep='')
}
}
myeq <- paste(myeq, ' + e[t]')
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, myeq)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable1.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/ols1.htm','Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares',''), 6, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Variable',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Parameter',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'S.D.',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'T-STAT<br />H0: parameter = 0',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'1-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:k){
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i],header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,mysum$coefficients[i,1])
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,2],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,3],4))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4]/2,6))
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable2.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple R',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sqrt(mysum$r.squared))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Adjusted R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$adj.r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (value)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[1])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF numerator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[2])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF denominator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'p-value',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 1-pf(mysum$fstatistic[1],mysum$fstatistic[2],mysum$fstatistic[3]))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residual Standard Deviation',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$sigma)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Sum Squared Residuals',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sum(myerror*myerror))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable3.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals', 4, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Time or Index', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Actuals', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Interpolation<br />Forecast', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residuals<br />Prediction Error', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:n) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,i, 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,x[i])
a<-table.element(a,x[i]-mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.element(a,mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable4.tab')
if (n > n25) {
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'p-values',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Alternative Hypothesis',3,header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'breakpoint index',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'greater',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-sided',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'less',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,mypoint,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,1])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable5.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Description',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'# significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'% significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'OK/NOK',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'1% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant1/numgqtests < 0.01) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'5% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant5/numgqtests < 0.05) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'10% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant10/numgqtests < 0.1) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable6.tab')
}
 





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