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Paper Multiple Regression met monthly dummies en lineaire trend

*The author of this computation has been verified*
R Software Module: /rwasp_multipleregression.wasp (opens new window with default values)
Title produced by software: Multiple Regression
Date of computation: Thu, 17 Dec 2009 09:54:30 -0700
 
Cite this page as follows:
Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Dec/17/t1261068931iuvhsobljxf84m8.htm/, Retrieved Thu, 17 Dec 2009 17:55:43 +0100
 
BibTeX entries for LaTeX users:
@Manual{KEY,
    author = {{YOUR NAME}},
    publisher = {Office for Research Development and Education},
    title = {Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Dec/17/t1261068931iuvhsobljxf84m8.htm/},
    year = {2009},
}
@Manual{R,
    title = {R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing},
    author = {{R Development Core Team}},
    organization = {R Foundation for Statistical Computing},
    address = {Vienna, Austria},
    year = {2009},
    note = {{ISBN} 3-900051-07-0},
    url = {http://www.R-project.org},
}
 
Original text written by user:
 
IsPrivate?
No (this computation is public)
 
User-defined keywords:
 
Dataseries X:
» Textbox « » Textfile « » CSV «
7.6 1.62 8.3 1.49 8.4 1.79 8.4 1.8 8.4 1.58 8.4 1.86 8.6 1.74 8.9 1.59 8.8 1.26 8.3 1.13 7.5 1.92 7.2 2.61 7.4 2.26 8.8 2.41 9.3 2.26 9.3 2.03 8.7 2.86 8.2 2.55 8.3 2.27 8.5 2.26 8.6 2.57 8.5 3.07 8.2 2.76 8.1 2.51 7.9 2.87 8.6 3.14 8.7 3.11 8.7 3.16 8.5 2.47 8.4 2.57 8.5 2.89 8.7 2.63 8.7 2.38 8.6 1.69 8.5 1.96 8.3 2.19 8 1.87 8.2 1.6 8.1 1.63 8.1 1.22 8 1.21 7.9 1.49 7.9 1.64 8 1.66 8 1.77 7.9 1.82 8 1.78 7.7 1.28 7.2 1.29 7.5 1.37 7.3 1.12 7 1.51 7 2.24 7 2.94 7.2 3.09 7.3 3.46 7.1 3.64 6.8 4.39 6.4 4.15 6.1 5.21 6.5 5.8 7.7 5.91 7.9 5.39 7.5 5.46 6.9 4.72 6.6 3.14 6.9 2.63 7.7 2.32 8 1.93 8 0.62 7.7 0.6 7.3 -0.37 7.4 -1.1
 
Output produced by software:

Enter (or paste) a matrix (table) containing all data (time) series. Every column represents a different variable and must be delimited by a space or Tab. Every row represents a period in time (or category) and must be delimited by hard returns. The easiest way to enter data is to copy and paste a block of spreadsheet cells. Please, do not use commas or spaces to seperate groups of digits!


Summary of computational transaction
Raw Inputview raw input (R code)
Raw Outputview raw output of R engine
Computing time5 seconds
R Server'Gwilym Jenkins' @ 72.249.127.135


Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation
TWG[t] = + 8.52999770283932 -0.117288081923750Infl[t] -0.136479017084508M1[t] + 0.587372677934864M2[t] + 0.694716430409092M3[t] + 0.595167523043634M4[t] + 0.36267624261792M5[t] + 0.205112649654338M6[t] + 0.368907246634373M7[t] + 0.665057776265042M8[t] + 0.693955198819427M9[t] + 0.513860535092991M10[t] + 0.242120662176955M11[t] -0.0194635209396826t + e[t]


Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares
VariableParameterS.D.T-STAT
H0: parameter = 0
2-tail p-value1-tail p-value
(Intercept)8.529997702839320.23894335.69900
Infl-0.1172880819237500.04568-2.56760.0127950.006397
M1-0.1364790170845080.267113-0.51090.6112990.305649
M20.5873726779348640.2792262.10360.0396880.019844
M30.6947164304090920.2785572.4940.0154540.007727
M40.5951675230436340.2782342.13910.0365770.018289
M50.362676242617920.2779551.30480.1970260.098513
M60.2051126496543380.2775460.7390.4628240.231412
M70.3689072466343730.2772951.33040.1885130.094257
M80.6650577762650420.277092.40020.0195620.009781
M90.6939551988194270.2769442.50580.0149980.007499
M100.5138605350929910.2768981.85580.0684820.034241
M110.2421206621769550.276830.87460.3853280.192664
t-0.01946352093968260.002754-7.066500


Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.782622929890878
R-squared0.612498650390982
Adjusted R-squared0.5271169970873
F-TEST (value)7.17365647878089
F-TEST (DF numerator)13
F-TEST (DF denominator)59
p-value4.03706177376506e-08
Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics
Residual Standard Deviation0.479455191625504
Sum Squared Residuals13.5627595658223


Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals
Time or IndexActualsInterpolation
Forecast
Residuals
Prediction Error
17.68.1840484720987-0.584048472098692
28.38.90368409682844-0.603684096828439
38.48.95637790378586-0.556377903785859
48.48.83619259466148-0.43619259466148
58.48.61004117131931-0.210041171319309
68.48.4001733944774-0.000173394477395415
78.68.55857904034860.0414209596514014
88.98.852859261328150.0471407386718526
98.88.90099822997769-0.100998229977687
108.38.71668749596166-0.416687495961655
117.58.33282651738617-0.832826517386174
127.27.99031355774215-0.790313557742149
137.47.87542184839127-0.475421848391271
148.88.56221681018240.237783189817603
159.38.66769025400550.632309745994494
169.38.575654084542830.724345915457173
178.78.226350175180720.47364982481928
188.28.085682366673820.114317633326182
198.38.262854105652820.0371458943471811
208.58.54071399516304-0.0407139951630443
218.68.513788591381380.0862114086186157
228.58.255586365753390.24441363424661
238.28.000742277294030.199257722705965
248.17.768480114658330.331519885341665
257.97.57031386714160.329686132858406
268.68.243034259101870.356965740898129
278.78.334433133094130.365566866905871
288.78.20955630069280.4904436993072
298.58.03853027585480.461469724145209
308.47.849774353759150.550225646240849
318.57.95657324358390.543426756416096
328.78.263755153575070.436244846424933
338.78.30251107567070.397488924329294
348.68.183881667531970.416118332468025
358.57.861010491556840.638989508443157
368.37.572450049597740.727549950402257
3787.454039697789150.545960302210847
388.28.190095653988260.00990434601174413
398.18.27445724306509-0.174457243065089
408.18.20353292834868-0.103532928348685
4187.952751007802530.0472489921974741
427.97.742883230960610.157116769039389
437.97.86962109471240.0303789052875994
4488.14396234176491-0.143962341764913
4588.140494554368-0.140494554368002
467.97.9350719656057-0.0350719656056964
4787.648560095026930.351439904973072
487.77.445619952872160.254380047127835
497.27.28850453402874-0.088504534028738
507.57.98350966155453-0.483509661554527
517.38.10071191357001-0.80071191357001
5277.9359571333146-0.935957133314606
5377.59838203214487-0.598382032144872
5477.33925326089498-0.339253260894983
557.27.46599112464677-0.265991124646772
567.37.69928154302597-0.399281543025972
577.17.6876035898944-0.587603589894399
586.87.40007934378547-0.600079343785468
596.47.13702508959145-0.737025089591448
606.16.75111553963564-0.651115539635636
616.56.52597303327643-0.0259730332764336
627.77.217459518344510.48254048165549
637.97.36632955247940.533670447520595
647.57.23910695843960.260893041560398
656.97.07394533769778-0.173945337697781
666.67.08223339323404-0.482233393234042
676.97.28638139105551-0.386381391055506
687.77.599427705142860.100572294857144
6987.654603958707820.345396041292179
7087.608693161361820.391306838638184
717.77.319835529144570.380164470855429
727.37.172020785493970.127979214506028
737.47.101698547274120.29830145272588


Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
p-valuesAlternative Hypothesis
breakpoint indexgreater2-sidedless
170.3892104299474180.7784208598948360.610789570052582
180.4161144100394070.8322288200788140.583885589960593
190.4554179446608070.9108358893216140.544582055339193
200.4589580251204360.9179160502408720.541041974879564
210.3434445571499940.6868891142999870.656555442850006
220.2738752235259770.5477504470519550.726124776474023
230.2506508599228540.5013017198457080.749349140077146
240.2078950450558580.4157900901117160.792104954944142
250.1422476061511740.2844952123023490.857752393848826
260.1051023532473420.2102047064946840.894897646752658
270.09538868049724450.1907773609944890.904611319502755
280.07986766107418960.1597353221483790.92013233892581
290.07617202883660440.1523440576732090.923827971163396
300.05795489998993350.1159097999798670.942045100010066
310.04330002977270270.08660005954540550.956699970227297
320.03103988278722490.06207976557444980.968960117212775
330.02185451061801380.04370902123602760.978145489381986
340.01413736134781660.02827472269563330.985862638652183
350.01318287767679460.02636575535358910.986817122323205
360.0156700405037640.0313400810075280.984329959496236
370.01302981463305080.02605962926610160.98697018536695
380.02500537376876650.05001074753753310.974994626231233
390.04772835039294320.09545670078588640.952271649607057
400.05503369123143720.1100673824628740.944966308768563
410.0511645540071690.1023291080143380.94883544599283
420.05477315964075040.1095463192815010.94522684035925
430.05653180562642760.1130636112528550.943468194373572
440.05119649124113870.1023929824822770.948803508758861
450.04603792805751320.09207585611502640.953962071942487
460.04105254501180220.08210509002360450.958947454988198
470.08216674780529840.1643334956105970.917833252194702
480.3031828053882240.6063656107764470.696817194611776
490.4166226466467370.8332452932934740.583377353353263
500.3704075833612670.7408151667225350.629592416638733
510.4732425281858830.9464850563717670.526757471814117
520.723908361173560.5521832776528820.276091638826441
530.705686896857930.5886262062841420.294313103142071
540.7289942697934040.5420114604131920.271005730206596
550.9021001671516330.1957996656967330.0978998328483667
560.9538825693800550.09223486123989020.0461174306199451


Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
Description# significant tests% significant testsOK/NOK
1% type I error level00OK
5% type I error level50.125NOK
10% type I error level120.3NOK
 
Charts produced by software:
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Dec/17/t1261068931iuvhsobljxf84m8/10z4nh1261068864.png (open in new window)
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http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Dec/17/t1261068931iuvhsobljxf84m8/94s3s1261068864.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Dec/17/t1261068931iuvhsobljxf84m8/94s3s1261068864.ps (open in new window)


 
Parameters (Session):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Include Monthly Dummies ; par3 = Linear Trend ;
 
Parameters (R input):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Include Monthly Dummies ; par3 = Linear Trend ;
 
R code (references can be found in the software module):
library(lattice)
library(lmtest)
n25 <- 25 #minimum number of obs. for Goldfeld-Quandt test
par1 <- as.numeric(par1)
x <- t(y)
k <- length(x[1,])
n <- length(x[,1])
x1 <- cbind(x[,par1], x[,1:k!=par1])
mycolnames <- c(colnames(x)[par1], colnames(x)[1:k!=par1])
colnames(x1) <- mycolnames #colnames(x)[par1]
x <- x1
if (par3 == 'First Differences'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n-1,k), dimnames=list(1:(n-1), paste('(1-B)',colnames(x),sep='')))
for (i in 1:n-1) {
for (j in 1:k) {
x2[i,j] <- x[i+1,j] - x[i,j]
}
}
x <- x2
}
if (par2 == 'Include Monthly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,11), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('M', seq(1:11), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:11){
x2[seq(i,n,12),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
if (par2 == 'Include Quarterly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,3), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('Q', seq(1:3), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:3){
x2[seq(i,n,4),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
k <- length(x[1,])
if (par3 == 'Linear Trend'){
x <- cbind(x, c(1:n))
colnames(x)[k+1] <- 't'
}
x
k <- length(x[1,])
df <- as.data.frame(x)
(mylm <- lm(df))
(mysum <- summary(mylm))
if (n > n25) {
kp3 <- k + 3
nmkm3 <- n - k - 3
gqarr <- array(NA, dim=c(nmkm3-kp3+1,3))
numgqtests <- 0
numsignificant1 <- 0
numsignificant5 <- 0
numsignificant10 <- 0
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
j <- 0
numgqtests <- numgqtests + 1
for (myalt in c('greater', 'two.sided', 'less')) {
j <- j + 1
gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,j] <- gqtest(mylm, point=mypoint, alternative=myalt)$p.value
}
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.01) numsignificant1 <- numsignificant1 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.05) numsignificant5 <- numsignificant5 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.10) numsignificant10 <- numsignificant10 + 1
}
gqarr
}
bitmap(file='test0.png')
plot(x[,1], type='l', main='Actuals and Interpolation', ylab='value of Actuals and Interpolation (dots)', xlab='time or index')
points(x[,1]-mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test1.png')
plot(mysum$resid, type='b', pch=19, main='Residuals', ylab='value of Residuals', xlab='time or index')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test2.png')
hist(mysum$resid, main='Residual Histogram', xlab='values of Residuals')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test3.png')
densityplot(~mysum$resid,col='black',main='Residual Density Plot', xlab='values of Residuals')
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test4.png')
qqnorm(mysum$resid, main='Residual Normal Q-Q Plot')
qqline(mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
(myerror <- as.ts(mysum$resid))
bitmap(file='test5.png')
dum <- cbind(lag(myerror,k=1),myerror)
dum
dum1 <- dum[2:length(myerror),]
dum1
z <- as.data.frame(dum1)
z
plot(z,main=paste('Residual Lag plot, lowess, and regression line'), ylab='values of Residuals', xlab='lagged values of Residuals')
lines(lowess(z))
abline(lm(z))
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test6.png')
acf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test7.png')
pacf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Partial Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test8.png')
opar <- par(mfrow = c(2,2), oma = c(0, 0, 1.1, 0))
plot(mylm, las = 1, sub='Residual Diagnostics')
par(opar)
dev.off()
if (n > n25) {
bitmap(file='test9.png')
plot(kp3:nmkm3,gqarr[,2], main='Goldfeld-Quandt test',ylab='2-sided p-value',xlab='breakpoint')
grid()
dev.off()
}
load(file='createtable')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
myeq <- colnames(x)[1]
myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t] = ', sep='')
for (i in 1:k){
if (mysum$coefficients[i,1] > 0) myeq <- paste(myeq, '+', '')
myeq <- paste(myeq, mysum$coefficients[i,1], sep=' ')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != '(Intercept)') {
myeq <- paste(myeq, rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i], sep='')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != 't') myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t]', sep='')
}
}
myeq <- paste(myeq, ' + e[t]')
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, myeq)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable1.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/ols1.htm','Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares',''), 6, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Variable',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Parameter',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'S.D.',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'T-STAT<br />H0: parameter = 0',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'1-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:k){
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i],header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,mysum$coefficients[i,1])
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,2],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,3],4))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4]/2,6))
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable2.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple R',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sqrt(mysum$r.squared))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Adjusted R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$adj.r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (value)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[1])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF numerator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[2])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF denominator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'p-value',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 1-pf(mysum$fstatistic[1],mysum$fstatistic[2],mysum$fstatistic[3]))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residual Standard Deviation',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$sigma)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Sum Squared Residuals',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sum(myerror*myerror))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable3.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals', 4, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Time or Index', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Actuals', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Interpolation<br />Forecast', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residuals<br />Prediction Error', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:n) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,i, 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,x[i])
a<-table.element(a,x[i]-mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.element(a,mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable4.tab')
if (n > n25) {
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'p-values',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Alternative Hypothesis',3,header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'breakpoint index',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'greater',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-sided',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'less',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,mypoint,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,1])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable5.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Description',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'# significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'% significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'OK/NOK',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'1% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant1/numgqtests < 0.01) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'5% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant5/numgqtests < 0.05) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'10% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant10/numgqtests < 0.1) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable6.tab')
}
 





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Software written by Ed van Stee & Patrick Wessa


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