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*The author of this computation has been verified*
R Software Module: /rwasp_multipleregression.wasp (opens new window with default values)
Title produced by software: Multiple Regression
Date of computation: Wed, 09 Dec 2009 08:00:24 -0700
 
Cite this page as follows:
Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Dec/09/t1260371301pv334d0lx9pcbal.htm/, Retrieved Wed, 09 Dec 2009 16:08:33 +0100
 
BibTeX entries for LaTeX users:
@Manual{KEY,
    author = {{YOUR NAME}},
    publisher = {Office for Research Development and Education},
    title = {Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Dec/09/t1260371301pv334d0lx9pcbal.htm/},
    year = {2009},
}
@Manual{R,
    title = {R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing},
    author = {{R Development Core Team}},
    organization = {R Foundation for Statistical Computing},
    address = {Vienna, Austria},
    year = {2009},
    note = {{ISBN} 3-900051-07-0},
    url = {http://www.R-project.org},
}
 
Original text written by user:
 
IsPrivate?
No (this computation is public)
 
User-defined keywords:
 
Dataseries X:
» Textbox « » Textfile « » CSV «
24 33 22 34 25 36 24 36 29 38 26 42 26 35 21 25 23 24 22 22 21 27 16 17 19 30 16 30 25 34 27 37 23 36 22 33 23 33 20 33 24 37 23 40 20 35 21 37 22 43 17 42 21 33 19 39 23 40 22 37 15 44 23 42 21 43 18 40 18 30 18 30 18 31 10 18 13 24 10 22 9 26 9 28 6 23 11 17 9 12 10 9 9 19 16 21 10 18 7 18 7 15 14 24 11 18 10 19 6 30 8 33 13 35 12 36 15 47 16 46 16 43
 
Output produced by software:

Enter (or paste) a matrix (table) containing all data (time) series. Every column represents a different variable and must be delimited by a space or Tab. Every row represents a period in time (or category) and must be delimited by hard returns. The easiest way to enter data is to copy and paste a block of spreadsheet cells. Please, do not use commas or spaces to seperate groups of digits!


Summary of computational transaction
Raw Inputview raw input (R code)
Raw Outputview raw output of R engine
Computing time4 seconds
R Server'Gwilym Jenkins' @ 72.249.127.135


Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation
S.[t] = + 17.8743967092323 + 0.28362403777993E.S[t] -1.28301434053189M1[t] -5.00054413482562M2[t] -0.949437394542677M3[t] -1.00592757515550M4[t] -0.554820834872551M5[t] -1.56043890214559M6[t] -4.24968100719855M7[t] -1.74770215357581M8[t] -0.153320220848849M9[t] -0.675314250341956M10[t] -1.44818039317485M11[t] -0.25110674028295t + e[t]


Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares
VariableParameterS.D.T-STAT
H0: parameter = 0
2-tail p-value1-tail p-value
(Intercept)17.87439670923231.8368139.731200
E.S0.283624037779930.0368437.698300
M1-1.283014340531891.536526-0.8350.4079370.203968
M2-5.000544134825621.614555-3.09720.0032920.001646
M3-0.9494373945426771.612181-0.58890.5587380.279369
M4-1.005927575155501.606739-0.62610.5342990.26715
M5-0.5548208348725511.60516-0.34560.7311490.365575
M6-1.560438902145591.603934-0.97290.3355920.167796
M7-4.249681007198551.604423-2.64870.0109670.005484
M8-1.747702153575811.601678-1.09120.2807610.14038
M9-0.1533202208488491.600764-0.09580.9241030.462052
M10-0.6753142503419561.60063-0.42190.6750180.337509
M11-1.448180393174851.600518-0.90480.3701760.185088
t-0.251106740282950.019249-13.045400


Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.932411502373107
R-squared0.869391209757674
Adjusted R-squared0.833265374158733
F-TEST (value)24.0656360010440
F-TEST (DF numerator)13
F-TEST (DF denominator)47
p-value2.22044604925031e-16
Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics
Residual Standard Deviation2.52938346360975
Sum Squared Residuals300.695693181175


Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals
Time or IndexActualsInterpolation
Forecast
Residuals
Prediction Error
12425.6998688751552-1.69986887515521
22222.0148563783584-0.0148563783583963
32526.3821044539183-1.38210445391827
42426.0745075330225-2.07450753302250
52926.84175560858232.15824439141765
62626.7195269521461-0.719526952146089
72621.79380984235074.20619015764934
82121.2084415778911-0.208441577891149
92322.26809273255520.731907267444769
102220.92774388721931.07225611278068
112121.3218911930031-0.321891193003126
121619.6827244680957-3.68272446809572
131921.8357158784200-2.83571587841997
141617.8670793438433-1.86707934384330
152522.8015754949632.19842450503699
162723.3448506874073.65514931259298
172323.2612266496271-0.261226649627091
182221.15362972873130.846370271268685
192318.21328088339544.7867191166046
202020.4641529967352-0.464152996735191
212422.94192434029891.05807565970108
222323.0196956838627-0.0196956838626574
232020.5776026118472-0.577602611847163
242122.3419243402989-1.34192434029892
252222.5095474861637-0.509547486163658
261718.2572869138071-1.25728691380705
272119.50467057378771.49532942621232
281920.8988178795715-1.89881787957148
292321.38244191735141.61755808264859
302219.27484499645562.72515500354436
311518.3198644155792-3.31986441557923
322320.00348845335922.99651154664084
332121.6303876835831-0.630387683583105
341820.0064148004673-2.00641480046726
351816.14620153955211.85379846044789
361817.3432751924440.656724807555986
371816.09277814940911.90722185059090
38108.437029123693331.56297087630667
391313.9387733503729-0.938773350372907
401013.0639283539173-3.06392835391727
41914.398424505037-5.39842450503699
42913.7089477730409-4.70894777304087
4369.3504787388053-3.3504787388053
44119.899606625465511.10039337453449
4599.82476162900988-0.824761629009875
46108.200788745894031.79921125410597
47910.0130562405775-1.01305624057748
481611.77737796902924.22262203097076
49109.39238477487460.607615225125391
5075.423748240297931.57625175970207
5178.37287612695814-1.37287612695814
521410.61789554608173.38210445391827
53119.116151319402151.88384868059785
54108.14305054962611.85694945037390
5568.32256611986941-2.32256611986941
56811.4243103465490-3.42431034654899
571313.3348336145529-0.334833614552865
581212.8453568825567-0.845356882556735
591514.94124841502010.0587515849798848
601615.85469803013210.145301969867906
611613.46970483597752.53029516402254


Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
p-valuesAlternative Hypothesis
breakpoint indexgreater2-sidedless
170.2869035760269910.5738071520539820.713096423973009
180.5039461144576480.9921077710847040.496053885542352
190.4810220281687620.9620440563375240.518977971831238
200.4071199817817040.8142399635634090.592880018218296
210.297382674509780.594765349019560.70261732549022
220.2114464688658830.4228929377317670.788553531134117
230.1351912319417800.2703824638835610.86480876805822
240.1135355557289010.2270711114578010.8864644442711
250.07483312855267460.1496662571053490.925166871447325
260.05356760666502760.1071352133300550.946432393334972
270.03386292696355120.06772585392710230.96613707303645
280.04474315442890800.08948630885781610.955256845571092
290.03295326664900650.0659065332980130.967046733350994
300.04266189632987990.08532379265975980.95733810367012
310.2658210465954390.5316420931908770.734178953404561
320.4189512920563610.8379025841127220.581048707943639
330.3893418571381540.7786837142763090.610658142861846
340.3306755895413580.6613511790827160.669324410458642
350.3746317267576190.7492634535152380.625368273242381
360.3196710871808590.6393421743617180.680328912819141
370.3579303554640670.7158607109281330.642069644535933
380.3105937906230560.6211875812461110.689406209376944
390.5361432950094350.927713409981130.463856704990565
400.547290078754880.905419842490240.45270992124512
410.5946155169546350.810768966090730.405384483045365
420.6511913484149260.6976173031701480.348808651585074
430.7012003388957130.5975993222085740.298799661104287
440.575591470415260.8488170591694790.424408529584739


Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
Description# significant tests% significant testsOK/NOK
1% type I error level00OK
5% type I error level00OK
10% type I error level40.142857142857143NOK
 
Charts produced by software:
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Dec/09/t1260371301pv334d0lx9pcbal/10glhh1260370819.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Dec/09/t1260371301pv334d0lx9pcbal/10glhh1260370819.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Dec/09/t1260371301pv334d0lx9pcbal/1keoq1260370819.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Dec/09/t1260371301pv334d0lx9pcbal/1keoq1260370819.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Dec/09/t1260371301pv334d0lx9pcbal/2wsam1260370819.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Dec/09/t1260371301pv334d0lx9pcbal/2wsam1260370819.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Dec/09/t1260371301pv334d0lx9pcbal/3pqvk1260370819.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Dec/09/t1260371301pv334d0lx9pcbal/3pqvk1260370819.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Dec/09/t1260371301pv334d0lx9pcbal/4xtap1260370819.png (open in new window)
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http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Dec/09/t1260371301pv334d0lx9pcbal/5v9431260370819.png (open in new window)
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http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Dec/09/t1260371301pv334d0lx9pcbal/6tjeh1260370819.png (open in new window)
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http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Dec/09/t1260371301pv334d0lx9pcbal/7kl8x1260370819.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Dec/09/t1260371301pv334d0lx9pcbal/7kl8x1260370819.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Dec/09/t1260371301pv334d0lx9pcbal/8n2o71260370819.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Dec/09/t1260371301pv334d0lx9pcbal/8n2o71260370819.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Dec/09/t1260371301pv334d0lx9pcbal/99tjm1260370819.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Dec/09/t1260371301pv334d0lx9pcbal/99tjm1260370819.ps (open in new window)


 
Parameters (Session):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Include Monthly Dummies ; par3 = Linear Trend ;
 
Parameters (R input):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Include Monthly Dummies ; par3 = Linear Trend ;
 
R code (references can be found in the software module):
library(lattice)
library(lmtest)
n25 <- 25 #minimum number of obs. for Goldfeld-Quandt test
par1 <- as.numeric(par1)
x <- t(y)
k <- length(x[1,])
n <- length(x[,1])
x1 <- cbind(x[,par1], x[,1:k!=par1])
mycolnames <- c(colnames(x)[par1], colnames(x)[1:k!=par1])
colnames(x1) <- mycolnames #colnames(x)[par1]
x <- x1
if (par3 == 'First Differences'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n-1,k), dimnames=list(1:(n-1), paste('(1-B)',colnames(x),sep='')))
for (i in 1:n-1) {
for (j in 1:k) {
x2[i,j] <- x[i+1,j] - x[i,j]
}
}
x <- x2
}
if (par2 == 'Include Monthly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,11), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('M', seq(1:11), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:11){
x2[seq(i,n,12),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
if (par2 == 'Include Quarterly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,3), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('Q', seq(1:3), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:3){
x2[seq(i,n,4),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
k <- length(x[1,])
if (par3 == 'Linear Trend'){
x <- cbind(x, c(1:n))
colnames(x)[k+1] <- 't'
}
x
k <- length(x[1,])
df <- as.data.frame(x)
(mylm <- lm(df))
(mysum <- summary(mylm))
if (n > n25) {
kp3 <- k + 3
nmkm3 <- n - k - 3
gqarr <- array(NA, dim=c(nmkm3-kp3+1,3))
numgqtests <- 0
numsignificant1 <- 0
numsignificant5 <- 0
numsignificant10 <- 0
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
j <- 0
numgqtests <- numgqtests + 1
for (myalt in c('greater', 'two.sided', 'less')) {
j <- j + 1
gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,j] <- gqtest(mylm, point=mypoint, alternative=myalt)$p.value
}
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.01) numsignificant1 <- numsignificant1 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.05) numsignificant5 <- numsignificant5 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.10) numsignificant10 <- numsignificant10 + 1
}
gqarr
}
bitmap(file='test0.png')
plot(x[,1], type='l', main='Actuals and Interpolation', ylab='value of Actuals and Interpolation (dots)', xlab='time or index')
points(x[,1]-mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test1.png')
plot(mysum$resid, type='b', pch=19, main='Residuals', ylab='value of Residuals', xlab='time or index')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test2.png')
hist(mysum$resid, main='Residual Histogram', xlab='values of Residuals')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test3.png')
densityplot(~mysum$resid,col='black',main='Residual Density Plot', xlab='values of Residuals')
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test4.png')
qqnorm(mysum$resid, main='Residual Normal Q-Q Plot')
qqline(mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
(myerror <- as.ts(mysum$resid))
bitmap(file='test5.png')
dum <- cbind(lag(myerror,k=1),myerror)
dum
dum1 <- dum[2:length(myerror),]
dum1
z <- as.data.frame(dum1)
z
plot(z,main=paste('Residual Lag plot, lowess, and regression line'), ylab='values of Residuals', xlab='lagged values of Residuals')
lines(lowess(z))
abline(lm(z))
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test6.png')
acf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test7.png')
pacf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Partial Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test8.png')
opar <- par(mfrow = c(2,2), oma = c(0, 0, 1.1, 0))
plot(mylm, las = 1, sub='Residual Diagnostics')
par(opar)
dev.off()
if (n > n25) {
bitmap(file='test9.png')
plot(kp3:nmkm3,gqarr[,2], main='Goldfeld-Quandt test',ylab='2-sided p-value',xlab='breakpoint')
grid()
dev.off()
}
load(file='createtable')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
myeq <- colnames(x)[1]
myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t] = ', sep='')
for (i in 1:k){
if (mysum$coefficients[i,1] > 0) myeq <- paste(myeq, '+', '')
myeq <- paste(myeq, mysum$coefficients[i,1], sep=' ')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != '(Intercept)') {
myeq <- paste(myeq, rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i], sep='')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != 't') myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t]', sep='')
}
}
myeq <- paste(myeq, ' + e[t]')
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, myeq)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable1.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/ols1.htm','Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares',''), 6, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Variable',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Parameter',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'S.D.',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'T-STAT<br />H0: parameter = 0',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'1-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:k){
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i],header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,mysum$coefficients[i,1])
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,2],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,3],4))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4]/2,6))
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable2.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple R',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sqrt(mysum$r.squared))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Adjusted R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$adj.r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (value)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[1])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF numerator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[2])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF denominator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'p-value',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 1-pf(mysum$fstatistic[1],mysum$fstatistic[2],mysum$fstatistic[3]))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residual Standard Deviation',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$sigma)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Sum Squared Residuals',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sum(myerror*myerror))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable3.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals', 4, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Time or Index', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Actuals', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Interpolation<br />Forecast', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residuals<br />Prediction Error', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:n) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,i, 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,x[i])
a<-table.element(a,x[i]-mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.element(a,mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable4.tab')
if (n > n25) {
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'p-values',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Alternative Hypothesis',3,header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'breakpoint index',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'greater',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-sided',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'less',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,mypoint,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,1])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable5.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Description',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'# significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'% significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'OK/NOK',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'1% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant1/numgqtests < 0.01) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'5% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant5/numgqtests < 0.05) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'10% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant10/numgqtests < 0.1) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable6.tab')
}
 





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Software written by Ed van Stee & Patrick Wessa


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