<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<oai_dc:dc xmlns:oai_dc="http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc/" xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xsi:schemaLocation="http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc/ http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc.xsd">
  <dc:title>Weighted Adaptive Prediction with Structured Dependence</dc:title>
  <dc:title>R package wired version 1.0.1</dc:title>
  <dc:description>Builds a joint probabilistic forecast across series and horizons using adaptive copulas (Gaussian/t) with shrinkage-repaired correlations. At the low level it calls a probabilistic mixer per series and horizon, which backtests several simple predictors, predicts next-window Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS), and converts those scores into softmax weights to form a calibrated mixture (r/q/p/dfun). The mixer blends eight simple predictors: a naive predictor that wraps the last move in a PERT distribution; an arima predictor using auto.arima for one-step forecasts; an Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) gaussian predictor with mean/variance under a Gaussian; a historical bootstrap predictor that resamples past horizon-aligned moves; a drift residual bootstrap predictor combining linear trend with bootstrapped residuals; a volatility-scaled naive predictor centering on the last move and scaling by recent volatility; a robust median mad predictor using median/MAD with Laplace or Normal shape; and a shrunk quantile predictor that fits a few quantile regressions over time and interpolates to a full predictive. The function then couples the per-series mixtures on a common transform (additive/multiplicative/log-multiplicative), simulates coherent draws, and returns both transformed- and level-scale samplers and summaries.</dc:description>
  <dc:type>Software</dc:type>
  <dc:relation>Depends: R (&gt;= 4.1.0)</dc:relation>
  <dc:relation>Imports: mc2d (&gt;= 0.2.1), forecast (&gt;= 8.24.0), quantreg (&gt;= 6.1), MASS
(&gt;= 7.3-65), imputeTS (&gt;= 3.4)</dc:relation>
  <dc:relation>Suggests: knitr, testthat (&gt;= 3.0.0)</dc:relation>
  <dc:creator>Giancarlo Vercellino &lt;giancarlo.vercellino@gmail.com&gt;</dc:creator>
  <dc:publisher>Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN)</dc:publisher>
  <dc:contributor>Giancarlo Vercellino [aut, cre, cph]</dc:contributor>
  <dc:rights>GPL-3</dc:rights>
  <dc:date>2026-04-13</dc:date>
  <dc:format>application/tgz</dc:format>
  <dc:identifier>https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=wired</dc:identifier>
  <dc:identifier>doi:10.32614/CRAN.package.wired</dc:identifier>
</oai_dc:dc>
