Create life tables with a Bayesian approach, which can be very useful for modelling a complex health process when considering multiple predisposing factors and multiple coexisting health conditions. Details for this method can be found in: Lynch, Scott, et al., (2022) <doi:10.1177/00811750221112398>; Zang, Emma, et al., (2022) <doi:10.1093/geronb/gbab149>.

Carry out Bayesian estimation and forecasting for a variety of stochastic mortality models using vague prior distributions. Models supported include numerous well-established approaches introduced in the actuarial and demographic literature, such as the Lee-Carter (1992) <doi:10.1080/01621459.1992.10475265>, the Cairns-Blake-Dowd (2009) <doi:10.1080/10920277.2009.10597538>, the Li-Lee (2005) <doi:10.1353/dem.2005.0021>, and the Plat (2009) <doi:10.1016/j.insmatheco.2009.08.006> models. The package is designed to analyse stratified mortality data structured as a 3-dimensional array of dimensions p × A × T (strata × age × year). Stratification can represent factors such as cause of death, country, deprivation level, sex, geographic region, insurance product, marital status, socioeconomic group, or smoking behavior. While the primary focus is on analysing stratified data (p > 1), the package can also handle mortality data that are not stratified (p = 1). Model selection via the Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) is supported.

Fit Bayesian graduation mortality using the Heligman-Pollard model, as seen in Heligman, L., & Pollard, J. H. (1980) <doi:10.1017/S0020268100040257> and Dellaportas, Petros, et al. (2001) <doi:10.1111/1467-985X.00202>, and dynamic linear model (Campagnoli, P., Petris, G., and Petrone, S. (2009) <doi:10.1007/b135794_2>). While Heligman-Pollard has parameters with a straightforward interpretation yielding some rich analysis, the dynamic linear model provides a very flexible adjustment of the mortality curves by controlling the discount factor value. Closing methods for both Heligman-Pollard and dynamic linear model were also implemented according to Dodd, Erengul, et al. (2018) <https://www.jstor.org/stable/48547511>. The Bayesian Lee-Carter model is also implemented to fit historical mortality tables time series to predict the mortality in the following years and to do improvement analysis, as seen in Lee, R. D., & Carter, L. R. (1992) <doi:10.1080/01621459.1992.10475265> and Pedroza, C. (2006) <doi:10.1093/biostatistics/kxj024>. Journal publication available at <doi:10.18637/jss.v113.i09>.