| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.612673299501252 |
| beta | 0.0228364348582505 |
| gamma | 0.714213918449514 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 1060 | 832.081095255667 | 227.918904744333 |
| 14 | 1050 | 959.259312417575 | 90.7406875824253 |
| 15 | 1025 | 986.862253531003 | 38.1377464689967 |
| 16 | 1085 | 1063.00454829348 | 21.9954517065198 |
| 17 | 1160 | 1159.47384997542 | 0.526150024575827 |
| 18 | 1310 | 1323.8856135203 | -13.8856135203007 |
| 19 | 1445 | 1144.37255626151 | 300.627443738488 |
| 20 | 1445 | 1622.71067478406 | -177.710674784061 |
| 21 | 1615 | 1600.08757379747 | 14.9124262025264 |
| 22 | 1650 | 1811.58999921163 | -161.589999211627 |
| 23 | 1255 | 1557.10226459804 | -302.102264598037 |
| 24 | 1175 | 952.519114823413 | 222.480885176587 |
| 25 | 1300 | 1846.39663847693 | -546.396638476927 |
| 26 | 1280 | 1410.31380628556 | -130.31380628556 |
| 27 | 1390 | 1256.90513422205 | 133.094865777949 |
| 28 | 1340 | 1382.54474887927 | -42.5447488792695 |
| 29 | 1110 | 1435.04296754111 | -325.042967541112 |
| 30 | 1325 | 1391.41371346778 | -66.4137134677799 |
| 31 | 1265 | 1239.8912886576 | 25.1087113424001 |
| 32 | 1150 | 1385.65031163712 | -235.650311637118 |
| 33 | 1430 | 1349.57528556905 | 80.4247144309452 |
| 34 | 1655 | 1519.09723953416 | 135.902760465844 |
| 35 | 1570 | 1394.60664749209 | 175.393352507912 |
| 36 | 1345 | 1163.55901939971 | 181.440980600286 |
| 37 | 1430 | 1828.95805703691 | -398.958057036911 |
| 38 | 1260 | 1585.49575307031 | -325.495753070306 |
| 39 | 1495 | 1372.04825396369 | 122.951746036308 |
| 40 | 1125 | 1432.30661034297 | -307.306610342968 |
| 41 | 895 | 1222.56374464492 | -327.563744644921 |
| 42 | 1085 | 1214.53738468247 | -129.537384682473 |
| 43 | 870 | 1054.23938245267 | -184.239382452665 |
| 44 | 1185 | 971.89501213854 | 213.10498786146 |
| 45 | 1455 | 1275.98515032718 | 179.014849672822 |
| 46 | 1540 | 1506.15092912894 | 33.8490708710649 |
| 47 | 1615 | 1332.36591767632 | 282.634082323677 |
| 48 | 1200 | 1168.16043998303 | 31.8395600169708 |
| 49 | 1260 | 1518.03275682094 | -258.032756820942 |
| 50 | 1095 | 1360.62007871469 | -265.620078714689 |
| 51 | 1160 | 1290.68664309092 | -130.686643090921 |
| 52 | 1095 | 1084.26062879716 | 10.739371202844 |
| 53 | 1300 | 1042.95622332429 | 257.043776675713 |
| 54 | 1215 | 1509.90003711416 | -294.900037114156 |
| 55 | 1245 | 1200.07303857787 | 44.926961422133 |
| 56 | 1350 | 1405.90122734404 | -55.9012273440383 |
| 57 | 1300 | 1553.89597030669 | -253.895970306688 |
| 58 | 1280 | 1468.59549804057 | -188.595498040575 |
| 59 | 1270 | 1227.10527765758 | 42.8947223424188 |
| 60 | 1065 | 925.828781857287 | 139.171218142713 |
| 61 | 1340 | 1209.3841944163 | 130.615805583704 |
| 62 | 1265 | 1273.0263406333 | -8.02634063329788 |
| 63 | 1155 | 1407.68748838062 | -252.687488380616 |
| 64 | 930 | 1155.41342500522 | -225.41342500522 |
| 65 | 880 | 1022.2932432149 | -142.293243214899 |
| 66 | 925 | 1035.18629250847 | -110.186292508471 |
| 67 | 980 | 933.925532783509 | 46.0744672164913 |
| 68 | 1015 | 1071.79191029444 | -56.7919102944441 |
| 69 | 1040 | 1121.28772576483 | -81.2877257648317 |
| 70 | 1365 | 1132.25418627926 | 232.745813720743 |
| 71 | 1160 | 1209.5755892489 | -49.5755892489042 |
| 72 | 1115 | 892.100770582902 | 222.899229417098 |
| 73 | 1630 | 1214.86262378904 | 415.137376210961 |
| 74 | 1225 | 1406.51656226379 | -181.516562263795 |
| 75 | 1200 | 1357.04987115159 | -157.049871151589 |
| 76 | 1265 | 1153.78129640278 | 111.218703597225 |
| 77 | 1140 | 1253.19632303185 | -113.19632303185 |
| 78 | 1270 | 1325.73615486788 | -55.7361548678798 |
| 79 | 1445 | 1305.53611416032 | 139.46388583968 |
| 80 | 1305 | 1508.20374330256 | -203.203743302555 |
| 81 | 1665 | 1488.46944720465 | 176.530552795346 |
| 82 | 1830 | 1814.50432403438 | 15.4956759656197 |
| 83 | 1690 | 1629.36048534029 | 60.6395146597145 |
| 84 | 1520 | 1353.78967654241 | 166.210323457594 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 85 | 1749.2291613413 | 1410.98086206138 | 2087.47746062122 |
| 86 | 1490.45026239907 | 1097.08840178085 | 1883.81212301728 |
| 87 | 1567.21996943617 | 1096.69052740878 | 2037.74941146356 |
| 88 | 1522.78109040018 | 1003.0868031518 | 2042.47537764856 |
| 89 | 1482.17386324046 | 918.49885849532 | 2045.8488679856 |
| 90 | 1684.6404542609 | 1010.47235995141 | 2358.80854857039 |
| 91 | 1771.84319446308 | 1023.4444145001 | 2520.24197442606 |
| 92 | 1792.63810282955 | 994.463644959406 | 2590.8125606997 |
| 93 | 2072.85868474397 | 1123.10810748594 | 3022.609262002 |
| 94 | 2290.6546406314 | 1211.90162516864 | 3369.40765609416 |
| 95 | 2061.37461218559 | 1048.36164691012 | 3074.38757746107 |
| 96 | 1709.28564659868 | 886.062173760971 | 2532.5091194364 |
