| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 1 |
| beta | 0.389135269023801 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 146.8 | 150.6 | -3.80000000000001 |
| 4 | 149.6 | 159.02128597771 | -9.42128597770957 |
| 5 | 146.5 | 158.155131324223 | -11.6551313242234 |
| 6 | 157 | 150.519708660864 | 6.48029133913602 |
| 7 | 147.9 | 163.541418574471 | -15.6414185744713 |
| 8 | 133.6 | 148.354790949581 | -14.7547909495805 |
| 9 | 128.7 | 128.313181404026 | 0.386818595974432 |
| 10 | 100.8 | 123.563706162433 | -22.7637061624335 |
| 11 | 91.8 | 86.8055452409362 | 4.99445475906384 |
| 12 | 89.3 | 79.7490637372317 | 9.55093626276833 |
| 13 | 96.7 | 80.9656698892732 | 15.7343301107268 |
| 14 | 91.6 | 94.4884526698202 | -2.88845266982018 |
| 15 | 93.3 | 88.2644538630872 | 5.03554613691283 |
| 16 | 93.3 | 91.9239624637565 | 1.37603753624349 |
| 17 | 101 | 92.4594272006095 | 8.54057279939053 |
| 18 | 100.4 | 103.482865294518 | -3.08286529451766 |
| 19 | 86.9 | 101.683213678771 | -14.7832136787714 |
| 20 | 83.9 | 82.4305438468463 | 1.46945615315366 |
| 21 | 80.3 | 80.0023610623225 | 0.297638937677519 |
| 22 | 87.7 | 76.5181828704076 | 11.1818171295924 |
| 23 | 92.7 | 88.2694222873065 | 4.43057771269352 |
| 24 | 95.5 | 94.9935163374663 | 0.506483662533668 |
| 25 | 92 | 97.9906069937425 | -5.99060699374253 |
| 26 | 87.4 | 92.1594505296167 | -4.75945052961666 |
| 27 | 86.8 | 85.7073804673688 | 1.09261953263118 |
| 28 | 83.7 | 85.5325572631399 | -1.8325572631399 |
| 29 | 85 | 81.7194445995464 | 3.28055540045355 |
| 30 | 81.7 | 84.2960244078494 | -2.59602440784941 |
| 31 | 90.9 | 79.9858197515086 | 10.9141802484914 |
| 32 | 101.5 | 93.4329122186796 | 8.06708778132044 |
| 33 | 113.8 | 107.172100592702 | 6.62789940729769 |
| 34 | 120.1 | 122.051250011624 | -1.95125001162378 |
| 35 | 122.1 | 127.591949813418 | -5.49194981341786 |
| 36 | 132.5 | 127.454838445308 | 5.04516155469172 |
| 37 | 140 | 139.818088744162 | 0.181911255838202 |
| 38 | 149.4 | 147.388876829641 | 2.01112317035916 |
| 39 | 144.3 | 157.571475785579 | -13.2714757855786 |
| 40 | 154.4 | 147.307076485415 | 7.09292351458541 |
| 41 | 151.4 | 160.167183185428 | -8.76718318542802 |
| 42 | 145.5 | 153.755562997986 | -8.25556299798555 |
| 43 | 136.8 | 144.643032269822 | -7.84303226982149 |
| 44 | 146.6 | 132.891031797542 | 13.7089682024578 |
| 45 | 145.1 | 148.025674827044 | -2.92567482704433 |
| 46 | 133.6 | 145.387191566146 | -11.7871915661463 |
| 47 | 131.4 | 129.300379605019 | 2.09962039498114 |
| 48 | 127.5 | 127.917415952268 | -0.417415952267717 |
| 49 | 130.1 | 123.854984683387 | 6.24501531661281 |
| 50 | 131.1 | 128.885140398675 | 2.21485960132492 |
| 51 | 132.3 | 130.747020385487 | 1.55297961451342 |
| 52 | 128.6 | 132.551339525569 | -3.95133952556878 |
| 53 | 125.1 | 127.313733956282 | -2.21373395628217 |
| 54 | 128.7 | 122.952291997657 | 5.7477080023428 |
| 55 | 156.1 | 128.788927897419 | 27.3110721025809 |
| 56 | 163.2 | 166.816629287385 | -3.61662928738536 |
| 57 | 159.8 | 172.509271276679 | -12.7092712766793 |
| 58 | 157.4 | 164.163645579332 | -6.76364557933223 |
| 59 | 156.2 | 159.131672537237 | -2.93167253723715 |
| 60 | 152.5 | 156.79085535577 | -4.29085535576965 |
| 61 | 149.4 | 151.42113220256 | -2.02113220256001 |
| 62 | 145.9 | 147.534638379184 | -1.63463837918417 |
| 63 | 144.8 | 143.398542933744 | 1.40145706625631 |
| 64 | 135.9 | 142.843899306247 | -6.94389930624666 |
| 65 | 137.6 | 131.241783181636 | 6.35821681836381 |
| 66 | 136 | 135.415989593762 | 0.584010406238178 |
| 67 | 117.7 | 134.043248640306 | -16.343248640306 |
| 68 | 111.5 | 109.383514183938 | 2.11648581606234 |
| 69 | 107.8 | 104.007113461356 | 3.79288653864386 |
| 70 | 107.3 | 101.783059384948 | 5.51694061505192 |
| 71 | 102.6 | 103.429895555375 | -0.829895555374648 |
| 72 | 101 | 98.4069539251723 | 2.59304607482774 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 73 | 97.8159996070915 | 81.5675381905462 | 114.064461023637 |
| 74 | 94.6319992141829 | 66.8205524595199 | 122.443445968846 |
| 75 | 91.4479988212744 | 51.3437712918388 | 131.55222635071 |
| 76 | 88.2639984283659 | 34.8918443306901 | 141.636152526042 |
| 77 | 85.0799980354574 | 17.4475596522923 | 152.712436418622 |
| 78 | 81.8959976425488 | -0.959210888947169 | 164.751206174045 |
| 79 | 78.7119972496403 | -20.2883070915409 | 177.712301590822 |
| 80 | 75.5279968567318 | -40.4992741074011 | 191.555267820865 |
| 81 | 72.3439964638233 | -61.5542651873138 | 206.24225811496 |
| 82 | 69.1599960709147 | -83.4187301862797 | 221.738722328109 |
| 83 | 65.9759956780062 | -106.061366995874 | 238.013358351886 |
| 84 | 62.7919952850977 | -129.45383866438 | 255.037829234576 |
