| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 19008 | 19008 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 19869 | 19679.9440099623 | 43.1144671348659 | 42.8754663368563 | 0.726665940142646 |
| 3 | 19868 | 19793.7611436031 | 45.164277486725 | 44.823334005055 | 0.112232185689583 |
| 4 | 19960 | 19891.2198018284 | 46.0892260743881 | 45.6150314606702 | 0.0860854306674753 |
| 5 | 20307 | 20159.52392082 | 49.3809981335362 | 48.1052651952886 | 0.367571043318669 |
| 6 | 22074 | 21455.4802725703 | 67.4915881861447 | 60.4425786414641 | 2.06258492303292 |
| 7 | 20682 | 20904.1972009943 | 58.1975633326417 | 54.6312990000851 | -1.02318962372003 |
| 8 | 20858 | 20853.1734122358 | 56.4792895566088 | 53.6340275077469 | -0.180453637049495 |
| 9 | 21421 | 21224.1792964074 | 61.6667057592384 | 56.4466015718878 | 0.519192870235399 |
| 10 | 21374 | 21307.6453959764 | 62.0427315263276 | 56.637855511771 | 0.0359525123047196 |
| 11 | 21380 | 21337.8223652415 | 61.4696111590454 | 56.3635496731155 | -0.0525084827480275 |
| 12 | 21331 | 21313.5046933017 | 59.8657302867501 | 55.6393229272504 | -0.14123991561394 |
| 13 | 21850 | 21869.700991775 | 34.9308412025688 | -245.936203020725 | 1.01651813165985 |
| 14 | 22641 | 22430.1086650304 | 55.7430677905915 | 38.0285636459008 | 0.719600498238562 |
| 15 | 24483 | 23845.8505679707 | 89.028632717808 | 54.7757492700842 | 2.18786151469949 |
| 16 | 22146 | 22660.7671106053 | 63.4039781830447 | 46.4312738378435 | -2.08346639603335 |
| 17 | 23840 | 23463.3487069278 | 77.6400937484119 | 49.9078556083346 | 1.21076963080417 |
| 18 | 23879 | 23740.2189214415 | 81.5181329138666 | 50.7200752023348 | 0.326252941758022 |
| 19 | 24078 | 23963.9332642404 | 84.3585936695474 | 51.2644109360099 | 0.23271669539274 |
| 20 | 24652 | 24430.6216498711 | 92.219586659575 | 52.6775760533005 | 0.62530375230597 |
| 21 | 25048 | 24849.9487544248 | 99.1380150301955 | 53.8552679539363 | 0.5346349004501 |
| 22 | 25627 | 25381.2826647149 | 108.526673846884 | 55.3746314316246 | 0.705942053312469 |
| 23 | 26496 | 26148.5227876016 | 123.198314416263 | 57.6366185435352 | 1.07526701896241 |
| 24 | 26291 | 26245.1388312905 | 122.592267225169 | 57.5474734744241 | -0.0433664100261682 |
| 25 | 24730 | 25810.1599000528 | 124.68074983411 | -834.434642883162 | -1.01773214855602 |
| 26 | 25569 | 25616.119204796 | 113.408298426182 | 69.7322117104093 | -0.465337818759137 |
| 27 | 25582 | 25578.3681331092 | 109.27951873949 | 68.5950950881943 | -0.243339085090811 |
| 28 | 26157 | 25965.8255482543 | 116.264034933106 | 69.6327181180568 | 0.452055628668949 |
| 29 | 26258 | 26155.8833781715 | 118.089663704529 | 69.8182288425362 | 0.120005182112119 |
| 30 | 26625 | 26469.2984566294 | 122.956273690086 | 70.228615157526 | 0.317553689192262 |
| 31 | 27189 | 26958.0703927862 | 132.190233908232 | 70.9377160026739 | 0.594488577959338 |
| 32 | 27079 | 27033.1368458139 | 130.727826799636 | 70.8318042942528 | -0.0927934954721782 |
| 33 | 26075 | 26357.7562146247 | 109.804979856566 | 69.3851957597391 | -1.30893834607848 |
| 34 | 25992 | 26088.6890135325 | 99.8421938454083 | 68.7247267480341 | -0.614966067829145 |
| 35 | 25656 | 25770.4277764014 | 88.7124248751457 | 68.0160384955632 | -0.678395146974925 |
| 36 | 28739 | 27814.8167145101 | 141.371702947672 | 71.2394888820144 | 3.17208102800943 |
| 37 | 27501 | 28151.8223410546 | 144.094334891922 | -735.700832064234 | 0.341994610165712 |
| 38 | 26833 | 27202.0244820398 | 106.738023298715 | 51.5195272059416 | -1.64290073264895 |
| 39 | 27275 | 27249.3362676819 | 104.9763295448 | 51.2102703948611 | -0.0956055833263296 |
| 40 | 27673 | 27540.4513219545 | 110.26779252358 | 51.6503128228473 | 0.301301763969504 |
| 41 | 27562 | 27553.0021489423 | 107.509939759535 | 51.5078708177535 | -0.158223282323944 |
| 42 | 27350 | 27408.4288537172 | 100.37201231663 | 51.2168098839144 | -0.408084838813735 |
| 43 | 27333 | 27350.6952235566 | 95.8675863959177 | 51.0524036530289 | -0.255886377117705 |
| 44 | 27339 | 27336.0805652449 | 92.6989048306643 | 50.9436669857755 | -0.178768545922099 |
| 45 | 28820 | 28362.4527995347 | 119.652096897589 | 51.8282596901729 | 1.51042224782927 |
| 46 | 26405 | 26998.8654332212 | 76.5686372341661 | 50.4681149099957 | -2.39897022182552 |
| 47 | 27783 | 27533.2861879393 | 89.9452894272945 | 50.8751558789967 | 0.740378661318316 |
| 48 | 27952 | 27816.881217758 | 95.6338666355328 | 51.0421309100595 | 0.313087165949772 |
| 49 | 27966 | 28292.4208009918 | 104.158682460865 | -490.007208557569 | 0.649652934032847 |
| 50 | 26689 | 27150.2580434081 | 62.4097960738193 | 30.8096166159151 | -1.90188170634287 |
| 51 | 28880 | 28353.9953052018 | 97.6977297246292 | 35.2514662550764 | 1.83561269374093 |
| 52 | 27305 | 27628.0297404859 | 72.8092951568355 | 33.9199592249239 | -1.33042539162358 |
| 53 | 26687 | 26970.4432847362 | 50.8339247056818 | 33.2662635762744 | -1.17991235748109 |
| 54 | 26864 | 26888.4218816409 | 46.8316736991071 | 33.1788204191177 | -0.21458501905024 |
| 55 | 27140 | 27054.8916422831 | 50.4458114489078 | 33.2473402773365 | 0.19320869064343 |
| 56 | 26915 | 26949.4143742608 | 45.720948328192 | 33.1639587787394 | -0.251775427219034 |
| 57 | 27021 | 26990.0446364137 | 45.5662175542147 | 33.1613527767086 | -0.00821921260979705 |
| 58 | 27967 | 27662.0919907777 | 64.6632024039333 | 33.4708942508548 | 1.01138458969476 |
| 59 | 28198 | 28032.1030974062 | 73.9964715396874 | 33.6168952100107 | 0.492901927449749 |
| 60 | 28616 | 28438.3249710256 | 84.1772274845954 | 33.7707417606086 | 0.536238662448286 |
| 61 | 27703 | 28239.4427216552 | 76.60026221457 | -414.962988693578 | -0.477849394038214 |
| 62 | 29599 | 29198.7864946337 | 105.738698312748 | 45.725220562743 | 1.36086405654962 |
| 63 | 29404 | 29342.0269157407 | 106.920252065103 | 45.8407264824776 | 0.0603149531705617 |
| 64 | 29883 | 29719.679618761 | 115.338065131672 | 46.1601790282577 | 0.43683061246858 |
| 65 | 30736 | 30431.3435823164 | 133.828510139841 | 46.5064245529989 | 0.962193483640963 |
| 66 | 30730 | 30647.7270413615 | 136.389234731676 | 46.5383860220239 | 0.133187838410316 |
| 67 | 30440 | 30511.5284487884 | 127.923611596268 | 46.451065809637 | -0.439732212088253 |
| 68 | 31010 | 30865.608140001 | 134.957194045909 | 46.5173748147686 | 0.364804879391098 |
| 69 | 32028 | 31685.0768695978 | 156.275913921202 | 46.7080960419404 | 1.10409950698371 |
| 70 | 31234 | 31384.9172322083 | 142.041369790021 | 46.5857029464562 | -0.736180545287015 |
| 71 | 29905 | 30362.5353560798 | 105.681297355821 | 46.2839593359004 | -1.87799637853264 |
| 72 | 30825 | 30684.909692979 | 112.455754975481 | 46.3382957142833 | 0.349469390672481 |
| 73 | 32396 | 32149.9264203335 | 151.71287263213 | -333.699844445232 | 2.26458995854501 |
| 74 | 31714 | 31864.5993973918 | 137.450456226438 | 26.9700170038983 | -0.678513097087849 |
| 75 | 32811 | 32547.7652686618 | 154.775176715502 | 28.3580892494144 | 0.877821570465635 |
| 76 | 32348 | 32435.409141546 | 146.360717216211 | 28.1147242931773 | -0.430790563150299 |
| 77 | 32355 | 32403.8958549408 | 140.767777557721 | 28.0438761934928 | -0.286837275119755 |
| 78 | 33217 | 32994.3532638733 | 154.907666527 | 28.1494873625219 | 0.725081356341906 |
| 79 | 34555 | 34110.8178868512 | 185.158307609988 | 28.3229153948285 | 1.550320725207 |
| 80 | 34685 | 34547.7525669847 | 193.084301066683 | 28.3631864581638 | 0.405923883122799 |
| 81 | 34923 | 34848.1943123791 | 196.466137987929 | 28.3793186604016 | 0.173080811304646 |
| 82 | 35184 | 35122.1155390768 | 198.907546405294 | 28.3904749329832 | 0.124869267885739 |
| 83 | 35801 | 35636.2544358013 | 208.849564118194 | 28.4342862430745 | 0.50818847670464 |
| 84 | 35123 | 35321.1817469918 | 192.31659123176 | 28.3638750018911 | -0.844603223759605 |
| 85 | 36142 | 36123.6168868361 | 210.759720361806 | -243.091582469342 | 1.01574267145463 |
| 86 | 36028 | 36102.4789167992 | 203.255422598471 | 20.5446215995873 | -0.36187267863145 |
| 87 | 35507 | 35733.9246386242 | 185.054514609695 | 19.304638155059 | -0.91997116459759 |
| 88 | 35897 | 35890.1710652878 | 184.141834665211 | 19.283408005255 | -0.0464452112448251 |
| 89 | 37439 | 37013.4009597627 | 213.859378755697 | 19.5545210241921 | 1.51391539791435 |
| 90 | 37072 | 37105.2250321284 | 209.997915009824 | 19.5365711989621 | -0.196714619550354 |
| 91 | 36679 | 36857.426829842 | 195.509189149393 | 19.4902863096068 | -0.737908394412237 |
| 92 | 36643 | 36753.1407219072 | 186.018275931627 | 19.4648063842391 | -0.48321961809528 |
| 93 | 37242 | 37136.9945426805 | 192.28321143046 | 19.4802867505048 | 0.318872546182399 |
| 94 | 37189 | 37217.7437900857 | 188.750209062559 | 19.4719793910925 | -0.179768827687339 |
| 95 | 37494 | 37453.9917986306 | 190.255179472388 | 19.4753848928061 | 0.0765553958163572 |
| 96 | 38699 | 38367.0281946582 | 213.162370704661 | 19.5254525070724 | 1.16494284540956 |
| 97 | 38643 | 38761.807870649 | 218.772126588601 | -196.662330580848 | 0.301114505429758 |
| 98 | 39670 | 39454.0496015099 | 234.003367561218 | 20.6911224953867 | 0.741704254308029 |
| 99 | 40384 | 40159.3730184745 | 249.014978606539 | 21.5836726318683 | 0.758432635785437 |
| 100 | 40310 | 40324.6604610825 | 246.355769573142 | 21.5318620708899 | -0.134969629067288 |
| 101 | 39839 | 40044.9858923347 | 229.661045305773 | 21.4159207234756 | -0.847892748807299 |
| 102 | 41181 | 40892.4643239891 | 249.266801910674 | 21.4748238270995 | 0.99574881693441 |
| 103 | 41711 | 41524.1877898993 | 261.404598331902 | 21.4960463588618 | 0.616388868425015 |
| 104 | 42588 | 42330.814275339 | 278.71017819499 | 21.5190735428675 | 0.87869562660678 |
| 105 | 42258 | 42349.0687107895 | 270.442079025781 | 21.50935904085 | -0.419754272884964 |
| 106 | 42489 | 42513.3711937017 | 267.072260874241 | 21.5056461213376 | -0.171055008995056 |
| 107 | 42643 | 42669.4657360409 | 263.548396890523 | 21.5019276214683 | -0.17885117298446 |
| 108 | 42863 | 42869.1177458624 | 261.519263033767 | 21.4998625765034 | -0.102974612103584 |
| 109 | 41876 | 42459.9973251375 | 240.556912771751 | -296.386361307193 | -1.10839516678025 |
| 110 | 43383 | 43162.2382379021 | 255.349531470935 | 29.4087118746416 | 0.725425845224042 |
| 111 | 42595 | 42822.8809805364 | 236.409784991468 | 28.4069976520445 | -0.957131232226295 |
| 112 | 42904 | 42931.079047635 | 232.333531880435 | 28.3384105735638 | -0.20666346539622 |
| 113 | 42343 | 42570.888071473 | 213.503869960463 | 28.2339551111962 | -0.954997168555559 |
| 114 | 42765 | 42751.140332116 | 212.447266391838 | 28.2318210283622 | -0.0535884224636453 |
| 115 | 41364 | 41827.0316297304 | 176.331158751945 | 28.198941613631 | -1.83161536602644 |
| 116 | 43794 | 43233.925518204 | 215.43665355888 | 28.220660862245 | 1.98308610406893 |
| 117 | 43482 | 43452.4463235713 | 215.534669440408 | 28.2207035916809 | 0.00497016778328807 |
| 118 | 43445 | 43492.5866910284 | 209.960213577303 | 28.2185283974582 | -0.282650209024683 |
| 119 | 43540 | 43569.3502632139 | 205.726657617268 | 28.2169715828422 | -0.214647580758213 |
| 120 | 42620 | 42948.8739209317 | 179.464986443444 | 28.2077071054221 | -1.3314306083981 |
| 121 | 43138 | 43340.2415277891 | 186.133403479058 | -293.162821758972 | 0.34934902535315 |
| 122 | 42255 | 42612.9020221669 | 156.942811184714 | 22.2211208693628 | -1.43877320501204 |
| 123 | 41169 | 41636.8868772924 | 120.871395778717 | 20.4996217462927 | -1.82363693601317 |
| 124 | 41772 | 41753.3903482136 | 120.732469342171 | 20.4975559276935 | -0.00704032278945022 |
| 125 | 41309 | 41465.2785534177 | 107.732365045121 | 20.4375748868873 | -0.658922981445478 |
| 126 | 39223 | 39917.9571675609 | 55.1094912806128 | 20.3630423510775 | -2.66719016735603 |
| 127 | 40617 | 40408.4587622062 | 68.9529581783933 | 20.3688570417383 | 0.701631571139067 |
| 128 | 40616 | 40559.956271251 | 71.577555912004 | 20.3691459102877 | 0.133018590249727 |
| 129 | 40692 | 40659.5309410163 | 72.4677804715192 | 20.3691584483358 | 0.0451165059664014 |
| 130 | 41700 | 41393.6687295595 | 93.5074915106192 | 20.3688388575865 | 1.06625934198362 |
| 131 | 41952 | 41797.5104658194 | 103.375727468504 | 20.3686051212514 | 0.500092818121044 |
| 132 | 45308 | 44265.6331509067 | 178.573564620258 | 20.3666708051383 | 3.81070403719184 |
| 133 | 43474 | 43947.7636154878 | 162.889150248856 | -260.650867002495 | -0.816794958499799 |
| 134 | 43189 | 43445.8232196127 | 141.680759687633 | 20.7400933025119 | -1.04921726531013 |
| 135 | 44347 | 44103.1936514968 | 158.09486798215 | 21.4548192306226 | 0.830154687257924 |
| 136 | 44483 | 44401.0702738107 | 162.541409615878 | 21.5142797424958 | 0.225297282006635 |
| 137 | 45297 | 45060.6099494347 | 178.348602107788 | 21.5769574956626 | 0.800977696910607 |
| 138 | 45832 | 45637.9630033728 | 191.038554789646 | 21.5901365317986 | 0.642999659192888 |
| 139 | 45593 | 45649.1423439123 | 185.318318656563 | 21.5893792367312 | -0.289836814589451 |
| 140 | 45544 | 45616.5748297633 | 178.388622027327 | 21.5903770004451 | -0.351112124742028 |
| 141 | 45764 | 45758.268162734 | 177.221541530263 | 21.5906386379172 | -0.0591324445245466 |
| 142 | 45205 | 45410.3552188278 | 160.519618841495 | 21.5947038961901 | -0.846224530684084 |
| 143 | 48060 | 47293.8098895477 | 215.318297013826 | 21.5813443736296 | 2.7764113151806 |
| 144 | 46181 | 46566.703405069 | 185.343735393177 | 21.5884931593547 | -1.51866336040574 |
| 145 | 48641 | 48172.2142207386 | 230.317554898165 | -141.13971249749 | 2.33266316619381 |
| 146 | 47022 | 47423.1826726373 | 199.110476814935 | 8.81078523863174 | -1.54813568255805 |
| 147 | 47295 | 47387.6708805127 | 191.644223741404 | 8.51152586339245 | -0.377726770057947 |
| 148 | 46719 | 46972.845085998 | 172.351299541588 | 8.27641094246646 | -0.977476564828524 |
| 149 | 47787 | 47587.5033080755 | 186.420563122284 | 8.32560314393092 | 0.712823835218369 |
| 150 | 47313 | 47446.2842722596 | 175.99899572348 | 8.31729936008197 | -0.527988430755495 |
| 151 | 48716 | 48380.1512296971 | 200.105190042546 | 8.3164436055504 | 1.22126624179331 |
| 152 | 48417 | 48460.4566231825 | 196.294596970834 | 8.31753288265264 | -0.19304976889901 |
| 153 | 49966 | 49565.1213291258 | 225.188190499303 | 8.30727417168341 | 1.46377717672701 |
| 154 | 50635 | 50374.3110879275 | 243.764315913028 | 8.3004373231506 | 0.941078569756171 |
| 155 | 50165 | 50295.9213987708 | 233.517073635004 | 8.30416516939481 | -0.519129119071225 |
| 156 | 50896 | 50779.5903176834 | 241.474074711582 | 8.30134500750855 | 0.403102626904435 |
| 157 | 50546 | 50763.9336962186 | 233.319598042764 | -107.456766056427 | -0.421743338530802 |
| 158 | 51147 | 51095.5921143945 | 236.450963094365 | 10.1438511023949 | 0.155669686770007 |
| 159 | 51121 | 51177.6377861943 | 231.538184551154 | 9.96130466569048 | -0.248600696605091 |
| 160 | 51711 | 51612.9106680267 | 238.019367144884 | 10.0340281659915 | 0.32836400823448 |
| 161 | 51716 | 51749.7199815022 | 234.799846174117 | 10.0239032726185 | -0.163108774072347 |
| 162 | 52887 | 52607.6547053223 | 254.621656896416 | 10.0365586126381 | 1.00416982160981 |
