Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 0 |
gamma | 0.193401272931234 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 0.6713 | 0.688632131410256 | -0.0173321314102565 |
14 | 0.6849 | 0.679599460955711 | 0.00530053904428895 |
15 | 0.7003 | 0.694407794289044 | 0.00589220571095594 |
16 | 0.7309 | 0.726345294289044 | 0.00455470571095573 |
17 | 0.7364 | 0.731553627622378 | 0.00484637237762242 |
18 | 0.7439 | 0.740253627622378 | 0.00364637237762222 |
19 | 0.7928 | 0.748007794289044 | 0.0447922057109557 |
20 | 0.8188 | 0.781520294289044 | 0.0372797057109557 |
21 | 0.784 | 0.821941127622377 | -0.0379411276223774 |
22 | 0.7746 | 0.780445294289044 | -0.00584529428904434 |
23 | 0.7677 | 0.765416127622378 | 0.00228387237762251 |
24 | 0.7197 | 0.759111960955711 | -0.0394119609557109 |
25 | 0.7304 | 0.715241127622378 | 0.0151588723776224 |
26 | 0.7567 | 0.738699460955711 | 0.018000539044289 |
27 | 0.749 | 0.766207794289044 | -0.0172077942890442 |
28 | 0.7328 | 0.775045294289044 | -0.0422452942890442 |
29 | 0.7142 | 0.733453627622378 | -0.0192536276223777 |
30 | 0.6927 | 0.718053627622378 | -0.0253536276223777 |
31 | 0.6974 | 0.696807794289044 | 0.000592205710955751 |
32 | 0.6953 | 0.686120294289044 | 0.00917970571095572 |
33 | 0.699 | 0.698441127622378 | 0.000558872377622421 |
34 | 0.6971 | 0.695445294289044 | 0.00165470571095583 |
35 | 0.7246 | 0.687916127622378 | 0.0366838723776224 |
36 | 0.7301 | 0.716011960955711 | 0.0140880390442891 |
37 | 0.736 | 0.725641127622378 | 0.0103588723776223 |
38 | 0.7585 | 0.744299460955711 | 0.014200539044289 |
39 | 0.7756 | 0.768007794289044 | 0.00759220571095587 |
40 | 0.7564 | 0.801645294289044 | -0.0452452942890442 |
41 | 0.7568 | 0.757053627622378 | -0.000253627622377572 |
42 | 0.7593 | 0.760653627622378 | -0.00135362762237778 |
43 | 0.779 | 0.763407794289044 | 0.0155922057109558 |
44 | 0.7978 | 0.767720294289044 | 0.0300797057109556 |
45 | 0.8125 | 0.800941127622377 | 0.0115588723776225 |
46 | 0.8075 | 0.808945294289044 | -0.00144529428904427 |
47 | 0.7781 | 0.798316127622378 | -0.0202161276223776 |
48 | 0.771 | 0.769511960955711 | 0.00148803904428918 |
49 | 0.7796 | 0.766541127622378 | 0.0130588723776223 |
50 | 0.763 | 0.787899460955711 | -0.0248994609557109 |
51 | 0.7531 | 0.772507794289044 | -0.0194077942890442 |
52 | 0.7473 | 0.779145294289044 | -0.0318452942890443 |
53 | 0.7707 | 0.747953627622378 | 0.0227463723776224 |
54 | 0.7684 | 0.774553627622378 | -0.00615362762237781 |
55 | 0.7702 | 0.772507794289044 | -0.00230779428904426 |
56 | 0.759 | 0.758920294289044 | 7.97057109557242e-05 |
57 | 0.7649 | 0.762141127622378 | 0.00275887237762251 |
58 | 0.7508 | 0.761345294289044 | -0.0105452942890443 |
59 | 0.7494 | 0.741616127622378 | 0.00778387237762235 |
60 | 0.7334 | 0.740811960955711 | -0.00741196095571073 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
61 | 0.728941127622378 | 0.689335788151205 | 0.768546467093551 |
62 | 0.737240588578089 | 0.681230180355565 | 0.793250996800612 |
63 | 0.746748382867133 | 0.678149922652048 | 0.815346843082218 |
64 | 0.772793677156177 | 0.693582998213831 | 0.852004356098523 |
65 | 0.773447304778555 | 0.684887073449056 | 0.862007536108053 |
66 | 0.777300932400932 | 0.680288059606848 | 0.874313805195017 |
67 | 0.781408726689977 | 0.676622847858962 | 0.886194605520991 |
68 | 0.770129020979021 | 0.658108204533974 | 0.882149837424068 |
69 | 0.773270148601399 | 0.654454130187879 | 0.892086167014918 |
70 | 0.769715442890443 | 0.644472362657367 | 0.894958523123519 |
71 | 0.76053157051282 | 0.629175519792286 | 0.891887621233355 |
72 | 0.751943531468531 | 0.614746611038361 | 0.889140451898701 |