| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 6.02 | 6.02 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 5.62 | 5.63902249731905 | -0.379507827721571 | -0.00262397924945988 | -3.29375650089534 |
| 3 | 4.87 | 4.88665151662148 | -0.721980535611364 | -0.00316230034074599 | -2.94972596212885 |
| 4 | 4.24 | 4.23628146059303 | -0.656005657618315 | 0.00119864896624659 | 0.558382613560948 |
| 5 | 4.02 | 4.00168400099549 | -0.26767724363366 | 0.0034921061983182 | 3.28607028194219 |
| 6 | 3.74 | 3.741300966092 | -0.260955193603584 | -0.00155756682274216 | 0.0568819271593959 |
| 7 | 3.45 | 3.45183941146835 | -0.287225200921602 | -0.000836609588358994 | -0.22229627409808 |
| 8 | 3.34 | 3.33285861234874 | -0.132180291741681 | 0.00122287657344894 | 1.31198691914182 |
| 9 | 3.21 | 3.21052623983837 | -0.123104982756925 | -0.000872670538716287 | 0.0767950828164 |
| 10 | 3.12 | 3.11912625781161 | -0.0938873665881007 | -0.000241578430292719 | 0.24723888268311 |
| 11 | 3.04 | 3.03995080783907 | -0.0803296587224081 | -0.00046834462362907 | 0.114725052347826 |
| 12 | 2.97 | 2.97009784905644 | -0.0706748978841393 | -0.000466399104094206 | 0.0816983927924031 |
| 13 | 2.93 | 2.92304835914776 | -0.0490169379089924 | 0.00612489410054545 | 0.188642444879728 |
| 14 | 2.95 | 2.94439514974973 | 0.0111684357466152 | 0.00352030239910217 | 0.504191455884675 |
| 15 | 2.92 | 2.92250484515999 | -0.0190841110006302 | -0.00138784176723397 | -0.253212731050104 |
| 16 | 2.9 | 2.90403064573446 | -0.0185282805800915 | -0.00405144257659607 | 0.00469659190927528 |
| 17 | 2.95 | 2.94342487108866 | 0.0343192916311336 | 0.00459200772154742 | 0.447199628140867 |
| 18 | 2.91 | 2.91311100190711 | -0.0246573472743281 | -0.000897925598674195 | -0.499057421336289 |
| 19 | 2.89 | 2.89217662442133 | -0.0212603453813439 | -0.00230409642608702 | 0.0287453619579407 |
| 20 | 2.84 | 2.83986960465007 | -0.049588428086104 | 0.0011934026036458 | -0.239711666774681 |
| 21 | 2.82 | 2.81910336133007 | -0.0232900344419605 | -9.02048024523563e-05 | 0.222536480959855 |
| 22 | 2.78 | 2.78086952235722 | -0.0369253753201484 | -0.000357858143215278 | -0.115381981869547 |
| 23 | 2.86 | 2.85406814110822 | 0.06355893723192 | 0.00216119864764414 | 0.850297475450988 |
| 24 | 2.87 | 2.87283028651012 | 0.022692047047269 | -0.00129678542457233 | -0.34582315538964 |
| 25 | 2.94 | 2.93762992756476 | 0.0610081809541246 | 0.000930288203662278 | 0.330643733463874 |
| 26 | 3.04 | 3.03399630968543 | 0.0916198354598055 | 0.00492829828810351 | 0.257195089822357 |
| 27 | 3.12 | 3.12099990150928 | 0.087429960996663 | -0.000845943829666833 | -0.0352388143984156 |
| 28 | 3.19 | 3.19695432366158 | 0.0770509633570793 | -0.00657110126898891 | -0.0876757229833538 |
| 29 | 3.27 | 3.26415614635058 | 0.0681334862432768 | 0.00617422155918121 | -0.0754605094045429 |
| 30 | 3.34 | 3.34079212479125 | 0.0758330633416735 | -0.00107736803878236 | 0.0651532317533453 |
| 31 | 3.4 | 3.40204994426798 | 0.0626348541238268 | -0.00156098972149198 | -0.111682978200472 |
| 32 | 3.55 | 3.54493044680577 | 0.135297816595599 | 0.00237760519112483 | 0.614872515230243 |
| 33 | 3.64 | 3.6409120674043 | 0.0996967140158828 | 0.000406848302126757 | -0.301255823916097 |
| 34 | 3.76 | 3.76231288941743 | 0.119350304225259 | -0.00304099675572343 | 0.166308316937793 |
| 35 | 3.78 | 3.78193986365168 | 0.0290452996941221 | 0.00140567578105217 | -0.764163309572634 |
| 36 | 3.77 | 3.77358552753595 | -0.00480654598522371 | -0.00233149997967898 | -0.286491175690176 |
| 37 | 3.81 | 3.80868029810985 | 0.0312919607348658 | -2.08937508987069e-05 | 0.30952748934077 |
| 38 | 3.81 | 3.8070949868204 | 0.00261112735832939 | 0.00392133160666568 | -0.241439875877997 |
| 39 | 3.82 | 3.82012692010489 | 0.0120106605332728 | -0.000470863081786965 | 0.079300523017848 |
| 40 | 3.96 | 3.95886078942183 | 0.126011918320541 | -0.00303212322716297 | 0.962836035853441 |
| 41 | 3.86 | 3.86866803726534 | -0.0686546442320335 | -0.00151980625590437 | -1.64728168088996 |
| 42 | 3.84 | 3.83626626440859 | -0.0360045371602393 | 0.00253480378501572 | 0.276281706149978 |
| 43 | 3.68 | 3.69180805405583 | -0.133675621292478 | -0.00822145565247998 | -0.826490507704719 |
| 44 | 3.56 | 3.55580014139546 | -0.135775973889253 | 0.00427698612353665 | -0.0177731406195365 |
| 45 | 3.48 | 3.47870714295177 | -0.0829287162198532 | -0.00064775919602685 | 0.447192452887783 |
| 46 | 3.4 | 3.40057989451172 | -0.0786045829266258 | -0.000738681918736664 | 0.0365907726519531 |
| 47 | 3.42 | 3.41169740088213 | 0.00219896756235402 | 0.00533538271158447 | 0.683762570798741 |
| 48 | 3.2 | 3.216999195449 | -0.175010066102297 | -0.0104926034777029 | -1.50000452274026 |
| 49 | 3.11 | 3.10124300976071 | -0.121641568706075 | 0.00679179873902664 | 0.455625077968933 |
| 50 | 3.1 | 3.08820904529097 | -0.0264300666004583 | 0.00839855091811548 | 0.802578219613786 |
| 51 | 2.99 | 3.00339051051648 | -0.0788545844104254 | -0.011478642042658 | -0.443130835437338 |
| 52 | 3.1 | 3.08329541451716 | 0.0634430289690302 | 0.0115280265422096 | 1.20174374947203 |
| 53 | 3 | 3.01411844655346 | -0.0554949030465199 | -0.00977674429032932 | -1.00644501444218 |
| 54 | 3.05 | 3.03737881847238 | 0.0151605864484728 | 0.010041817095052 | 0.597878061879382 |
| 55 | 3.1 | 3.1037454510632 | 0.0610986282268806 | -0.00542250043274548 | 0.388726344729772 |
| 56 | 3.2 | 3.19558636675793 | 0.0886771306914075 | 0.00340682841525302 | 0.233368724871076 |
| 57 | 3.1 | 3.11070606681847 | -0.0670196739276564 | -0.00502206309408251 | -1.3175032536383 |
| 58 | 3.3 | 3.29128161246724 | 0.155105811048853 | 0.000609283433534266 | 1.87962802118913 |
| 59 | 3.13 | 3.1358083980179 | -0.123516144861674 | 0.0043632345887584 | -2.35769874637998 |
| 60 | 3.14 | 3.14188588388646 | -0.00734429553850341 | -0.00612646551169212 | 0.983543682872534 |
