Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 0 |
gamma | 1 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 18.6 | 18.7376335470085 | -0.137633547008548 |
14 | 18.4 | 18.4535110722611 | -0.0535110722610703 |
15 | 18.6 | 18.7535110722611 | -0.153511072261079 |
16 | 19.9 | 20.0743444055944 | -0.174344405594404 |
17 | 19.2 | 19.3326777389277 | -0.13267773892774 |
18 | 18.4 | 18.4660110722611 | -0.0660110722610696 |
19 | 21.1 | 20.9660110722611 | 0.133988927738926 |
20 | 20.5 | 21.8285110722611 | -1.32851107226108 |
21 | 19.1 | 20.1826777389277 | -1.08267773892774 |
22 | 18.1 | 17.3785110722611 | 0.721488927738928 |
23 | 17 | 16.4285110722611 | 0.571488927738926 |
24 | 17.1 | 15.7743444055944 | 1.32565559440559 |
25 | 17.4 | 16.8535110722611 | 0.54648892773892 |
26 | 16.8 | 17.2535110722611 | -0.453511072261065 |
27 | 15.3 | 17.1535110722611 | -1.85351107226108 |
28 | 14.3 | 16.7743444055944 | -2.4743444055944 |
29 | 13.4 | 13.7326777389277 | -0.332677738927739 |
30 | 15.3 | 12.6660110722611 | 2.63398892773893 |
31 | 22.1 | 17.8660110722611 | 4.23398892773893 |
32 | 23.7 | 22.8285110722611 | 0.871488927738923 |
33 | 22.2 | 23.3826777389277 | -1.18267773892774 |
34 | 19.5 | 20.4785110722611 | -0.978511072261071 |
35 | 16.6 | 17.8285110722611 | -1.22851107226107 |
36 | 17.3 | 15.3743444055944 | 1.92565559440559 |
37 | 19.8 | 17.0535110722611 | 2.74648892773892 |
38 | 21.2 | 19.6535110722611 | 1.54648892773893 |
39 | 21.5 | 21.5535110722611 | -0.053511072261081 |
40 | 20.6 | 22.9743444055944 | -2.3743444055944 |
41 | 19.1 | 20.0326777389277 | -0.93267773892774 |
42 | 19.6 | 18.3660110722611 | 1.23398892773893 |
43 | 23.4 | 22.1660110722611 | 1.23398892773892 |
44 | 24.3 | 24.1285110722611 | 0.171488927738928 |
45 | 24.1 | 23.9826777389277 | 0.11732226107226 |
46 | 22.8 | 22.3785110722611 | 0.421488927738928 |
47 | 22.5 | 21.1285110722611 | 1.37148892773893 |
48 | 23.8 | 21.2743444055944 | 2.52565559440559 |
49 | 24.9 | 23.5535110722611 | 1.34648892773892 |
50 | 25.2 | 24.7535110722611 | 0.446488927738933 |
51 | 24.3 | 25.5535110722611 | -1.25351107226108 |
52 | 22.8 | 25.7743444055944 | -2.9743444055944 |
53 | 20.7 | 22.2326777389277 | -1.53267773892774 |
54 | 19.8 | 19.9660110722611 | -0.166011072261067 |
55 | 22.5 | 22.3660110722611 | 0.133988927738923 |
56 | 22.6 | 23.2285110722611 | -0.628511072261073 |
57 | 22.5 | 22.2826777389277 | 0.217322261072258 |
58 | 21.8 | 20.7785110722611 | 1.02148892773893 |
59 | 21.2 | 20.1285110722611 | 1.07148892773893 |
60 | 20.6 | 19.9743444055944 | 0.625655594405593 |
61 | 19.9 | 20.3535110722611 | -0.45351107226108 |
62 | 18.7 | 19.7535110722611 | -1.05351107226107 |
63 | 17.6 | 19.0535110722611 | -1.45351107226108 |
64 | 16.4 | 19.0743444055944 | -2.6743444055944 |
65 | 15.9 | 15.8326777389277 | 0.0673222610722615 |
66 | 16.8 | 15.1660110722611 | 1.63398892773893 |
67 | 22.8 | 19.3660110722611 | 3.43398892773892 |
68 | 24 | 23.5285110722611 | 0.471488927738925 |
69 | 22.2 | 23.6826777389277 | -1.48267773892774 |
70 | 17.9 | 20.4785110722611 | -2.57851107226107 |
71 | 16 | 16.2285110722611 | -0.228511072261071 |
72 | 16 | 14.7743444055944 | 1.22565559440559 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 15.7535110722611 | 12.8422243219659 | 18.6647978225563 |
74 | 15.6070221445221 | 11.4898409382975 | 19.7242033507467 |
75 | 15.9605332167832 | 10.9180366498698 | 21.0030297836966 |
76 | 17.4348776223776 | 11.6123041217872 | 23.2574511229681 |
77 | 16.8675553613054 | 10.3577202856508 | 23.3773904369599 |
78 | 16.1335664335664 | 9.00239940041771 | 23.2647334667151 |
79 | 18.6995775058275 | 10.997036769349 | 26.4021182423061 |
80 | 19.4280885780886 | 11.1937261656394 | 27.6624509905378 |
81 | 19.1107663170163 | 10.3769060661307 | 27.844626567902 |
82 | 17.3892773892774 | 8.18298033647461 | 26.5955744420802 |
83 | 15.7177884615385 | 6.06214265367612 | 25.3734342694008 |
84 | 14.4921328671329 | 4.40713973330605 | 24.5771260009597 |