Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.953856088022835 |
beta | 0.0154438423748729 |
gamma | 1 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 107.36 | 106.607694978633 | 0.752305021367448 |
14 | 107.39 | 107.36476695413 | 0.025233045870408 |
15 | 107.46 | 107.458271945824 | 0.00172805417585664 |
16 | 107.51 | 107.483965347742 | 0.0260346522577635 |
17 | 108.21 | 108.170727267969 | 0.0392727320307955 |
18 | 108.33 | 108.301944945772 | 0.028055054227849 |
19 | 108.33 | 108.34912585801 | -0.0191258580102698 |
20 | 108.36 | 108.383104556307 | -0.023104556306663 |
21 | 108.89 | 108.7041977911 | 0.185802208900213 |
22 | 109.3 | 108.945628439118 | 0.354371560881518 |
23 | 109.55 | 109.677653642538 | -0.127653642538149 |
24 | 109.45 | 109.658849012698 | -0.208849012697769 |
25 | 109.45 | 109.50923338418 | -0.0592333841799189 |
26 | 109.4 | 109.461942712852 | -0.0619427128518737 |
27 | 109.45 | 109.473203907498 | -0.0232039074977166 |
28 | 109.5 | 109.477864073123 | 0.0221359268765582 |
29 | 109.91 | 110.163087259896 | -0.253087259896446 |
30 | 109.9 | 110.012180370256 | -0.112180370255658 |
31 | 109.9 | 109.918616339004 | -0.0186163390039837 |
32 | 109.92 | 109.948101540002 | -0.0281015400020692 |
33 | 109.74 | 110.269198622879 | -0.529198622878695 |
34 | 110.28 | 109.820997477472 | 0.459002522527868 |
35 | 110.97 | 110.616722025609 | 0.353277974391332 |
36 | 111.02 | 111.04613396931 | -0.0261339693103366 |
37 | 111.02 | 111.073621354927 | -0.0536213549268894 |
38 | 111 | 111.02755671202 | -0.0275567120200151 |
39 | 111.43 | 111.069909289263 | 0.360090710736714 |
40 | 111.52 | 111.444420434519 | 0.0755795654809077 |
41 | 112.29 | 112.170859493124 | 0.119140506876064 |
42 | 112.27 | 112.389927889172 | -0.11992788917162 |
43 | 112.27 | 112.301598689092 | -0.0315986890915241 |
44 | 112.39 | 112.326379105341 | 0.0636208946593371 |
45 | 112.31 | 112.721310986253 | -0.411310986253142 |
46 | 112.91 | 112.442361149139 | 0.467638850861263 |
47 | 112.9 | 113.252776192623 | -0.352776192622542 |
48 | 113.08 | 112.992136717228 | 0.087863282771707 |
49 | 113.08 | 113.129702214846 | -0.0497022148462491 |
50 | 113.54 | 113.091245840389 | 0.448754159611042 |
51 | 114 | 113.615501891294 | 0.384498108706026 |
52 | 115.28 | 114.010209155199 | 1.26979084480055 |
53 | 116.4 | 115.905399584828 | 0.494600415172471 |
54 | 116.56 | 116.504737724956 | 0.0552622750438303 |
55 | 116.56 | 116.623337922061 | -0.0633379220611374 |
56 | 116.59 | 116.657517262371 | -0.0675172623708278 |
57 | 116.96 | 116.938794956665 | 0.0212050433349447 |
58 | 117.17 | 117.152680790666 | 0.0173192093344738 |
59 | 117.83 | 117.528784232094 | 0.301215767906356 |
60 | 117.84 | 117.955011576434 | -0.115011576434114 |
61 | 117.84 | 117.93244703103 | -0.0924470310295078 |
62 | 117.84 | 117.915320484675 | -0.0753204846752453 |
63 | 117.69 | 117.968100974166 | -0.278100974166094 |
64 | 117.9 | 117.793255311573 | 0.106744688427241 |
65 | 118.05 | 118.54778406876 | -0.497784068759742 |
66 | 118.08 | 118.170125732823 | -0.0901257328232958 |
67 | 118.08 | 118.132300562234 | -0.0523005622342936 |
68 | 118.08 | 118.164704243679 | -0.0847042436794254 |
69 | 118.16 | 118.421317979951 | -0.261317979951016 |
70 | 118.53 | 118.349012251041 | 0.180987748958572 |
71 | 118.5 | 118.880217108151 | -0.380217108150759 |
72 | 118.62 | 118.613095956002 | 0.00690404399783517 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 118.685505306387 | 118.11205899827 | 119.258951614505 |
74 | 118.736354787854 | 117.938015091697 | 119.534694484011 |
75 | 118.831737235109 | 117.854338989223 | 119.809135480995 |
76 | 118.924129066075 | 117.791492066665 | 120.056766065485 |
77 | 119.531581854787 | 118.258724157748 | 120.804439551826 |
78 | 119.637520216135 | 118.234897498923 | 121.040142933346 |
79 | 119.678706468708 | 118.154055490764 | 121.203357446653 |
80 | 119.751571620306 | 118.110858424047 | 121.392284816565 |
81 | 120.074148654889 | 118.322112475848 | 121.82618483393 |
82 | 120.268679205413 | 118.409169520642 | 122.128188890184 |
83 | 120.595852258236 | 118.632050078794 | 122.559654437678 |
84 | 120.709368498711 | 118.643938351823 | 122.774798645599 |