| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.989270808318865 |
| beta | 0 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 521.41 | 525.22 | -3.81000000000006 |
| 4 | 1601.93 | 518.910878220305 | 1083.0191217797 |
| 5 | 1577.49 | 1587.77008024809 | -10.2800802480911 |
| 6 | 1551.43 | 1575.06029695148 | -23.6302969514793 |
| 7 | 1551.43 | 1549.14353398547 | 2.28646601452533 |
| 8 | 1516.88 | 1548.86546806786 | -31.9854680678577 |
| 9 | 1485.95 | 1514.68317821791 | -28.733178217911 |
| 10 | 1438.22 | 1483.71828377671 | -45.4982837767081 |
| 11 | 1385.06 | 1436.1681598078 | -51.1081598078031 |
| 12 | 1329.49 | 1383.06834924305 | -53.578349243048 |
| 13 | 1329.49 | 1327.52485237899 | 1.96514762101242 |
| 14 | 1276.16 | 1326.92891555449 | -50.7689155544924 |
| 15 | 1242.34 | 1274.16470942643 | -31.8247094264277 |
| 16 | 1181.59 | 1240.14145340763 | -58.5514534076326 |
| 17 | 1160.21 | 1179.67820976682 | -19.4682097668194 |
| 18 | 1135.18 | 1157.87887815428 | -22.6988781542768 |
| 19 | 1135.18 | 1132.88354061466 | 2.29645938533599 |
| 20 | 1084.96 | 1132.61536084707 | -47.655360847067 |
| 21 | 1077.35 | 1082.93130350116 | -5.58130350116198 |
| 22 | 1061.13 | 1074.86988287509 | -13.7398828750943 |
| 23 | 1029.98 | 1058.73741783704 | -28.7574178370432 |
| 24 | 1013.08 | 1027.74854384823 | -14.6685438482281 |
| 25 | 1013.08 | 1010.69738161863 | 2.38261838136918 |
| 26 | 996.04 | 1010.51443643068 | -14.4744364306835 |
| 27 | 975.02 | 993.655299002941 | -18.6352990029412 |
| 28 | 951.89 | 972.679941695038 | -20.7899416950379 |
| 29 | 944.4 | 949.573059269486 | -5.17305926948575 |
| 30 | 932.47 | 941.91550274448 | -9.44550274448022 |
| 31 | 932.47 | 930.03134260947 | 2.43865739052978 |
| 32 | 920.44 | 929.903835177412 | -9.46383517741242 |
| 33 | 900.18 | 918.001539301657 | -17.8215393016573 |
| 34 | 886.9 | 897.83121071122 | -10.9312107112204 |
| 35 | 867.74 | 884.477283055028 | -16.7372830550275 |
| 36 | 859.03 | 865.379577518119 | -6.34957751811885 |
| 37 | 859.03 | 856.558125834286 | 2.47187416571387 |
| 38 | 844.99 | 856.463478788264 | -11.4734787882644 |
| 39 | 834.82 | 842.573101153169 | -7.7531011531687 |
| 40 | 825.62 | 832.363184508396 | -6.74318450839564 |
| 41 | 816.92 | 823.152348919132 | -6.23234891913194 |
| 42 | 813.21 | 814.446868066177 | -1.23686806617707 |
| 43 | 813.21 | 810.683270594566 | 2.52672940543368 |
| 44 | 811.03 | 810.642890235883 | 0.387109764117213 |
| 45 | 804.16 | 808.485846625139 | -4.32584662513921 |
| 46 | 788.62 | 801.666412837624 | -13.0464128376243 |
| 47 | 778.76 | 786.219977464086 | -7.45997746408614 |
| 48 | 765.91 | 776.300039528149 | -10.3900395281491 |
| 49 | 765.91 | 763.481476725672 | 2.42852327432786 |
| 50 | 753.85 | 763.343943908288 | -9.49394390828763 |
| 51 | 742.22 | 751.411862344002 | -9.19186234400195 |
| 52 | 732.11 | 739.778621252995 | -7.66862125299542 |
| 53 | 729.94 | 729.652278107353 | 0.287721892646573 |
| 54 | 731.22 | 727.396912976663 | 3.82308702333705 |
| 55 | 731.22 | 728.638981366513 | 2.58101863348702 |
| 56 | 729.11 | 728.652307756349 | 0.457692243651195 |
| 57 | 726.94 | 726.565089332187 | 0.374910667813083 |
| 58 | 720.52 | 724.395977511582 | -3.87597751158182 |
| 59 | 709.36 | 718.021586105674 | -8.66158610567356 |
| 60 | 703.21 | 706.91293181759 | -3.70293181759041 |
| 61 | 703.21 | 700.709729465253 | 2.50027053474685 |
| 62 | 695.88 | 700.643174118178 | -4.76317411817809 |
| 63 | 681.63 | 693.391105008125 | -11.7611050081246 |
| 64 | 672.1 | 679.216187150014 | -7.11618715001418 |
| 65 | 665.49 | 669.636350935971 | -4.14635093597144 |
| 66 | 658.93 | 662.994486993969 | -4.06448699396935 |
| 67 | 658.93 | 656.433608660044 | 2.49639133995618 |
| 68 | 656 | 656.363215738803 | -0.363215738802523 |
| 69 | 650.66 | 653.463897011283 | -2.80389701128331 |
| 70 | 645.93 | 648.150083548488 | -2.22008354848822 |
| 71 | 638.74 | 643.41381970194 | -4.67381970193981 |
| 72 | 634.67 | 636.250146307465 | -1.58014630746527 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 73 | 632.146953692617 | 374.045973702006 | 890.247933683228 |
| 74 | 629.606953692617 | 266.549897373874 | 992.66401001136 |
| 75 | 627.066953692617 | 183.214797661414 | 1070.91910972382 |
| 76 | 624.526953692617 | 112.473199986754 | 1136.58070739848 |
| 77 | 621.986953692617 | 49.803978626964 | 1194.16992875827 |
| 78 | 619.446953692617 | -7.12121277109566 | 1246.01512015633 |
| 79 | 616.906953692617 | -59.6889208857134 | 1293.50282827095 |
| 80 | 614.366953692617 | -108.804041139956 | 1337.53794852519 |
| 81 | 611.826953692617 | -155.095857311104 | 1378.74976469634 |
| 82 | 609.286953692617 | -199.022954887358 | 1417.59686227259 |
| 83 | 606.746953692617 | -240.931769987106 | 1454.42567737234 |
| 84 | 604.206953692617 | -281.091599819135 | 1489.50550720437 |
