Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 0.029820328520941 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 0.61 | 0.58 | 0.03 |
4 | 0.61 | 0.600894609855628 | 0.00910539014437173 |
5 | 0.6 | 0.601166135581045 | -0.00116613558104472 |
6 | 0.6 | 0.591131361034918 | 0.00886863896508194 |
7 | 0.58 | 0.59139582676239 | -0.0113958267623904 |
8 | 0.63 | 0.571055999464568 | 0.0589440005354319 |
9 | 0.65 | 0.622813728924873 | 0.0271862710751267 |
10 | 0.62 | 0.643624432459593 | -0.0236244324595929 |
11 | 0.61 | 0.612919944122527 | -0.00291994412252705 |
12 | 0.67 | 0.60283287042953 | 0.0671671295704696 |
13 | 0.66 | 0.664835816299131 | -0.00483581629913055 |
14 | 0.59 | 0.654691610668424 | -0.0646916106684235 |
15 | 0.54 | 0.582762485585742 | -0.0427624855857422 |
16 | 0.53 | 0.531487294217204 | -0.00148729421720351 |
17 | 0.5 | 0.521442942615039 | -0.0214429426150392 |
18 | 0.5 | 0.490803507021803 | 0.00919649297819697 |
19 | 0.52 | 0.491077749463653 | 0.0289222505363466 |
20 | 0.53 | 0.511940220476212 | 0.0180597795237878 |
21 | 0.54 | 0.522478769034627 | 0.0175212309653727 |
22 | 0.54 | 0.533001257898106 | 0.006998742101894 |
23 | 0.55 | 0.533209962686818 | 0.0167900373131822 |
24 | 0.52 | 0.543710647115376 | -0.0237106471153758 |
25 | 0.47 | 0.513003587828951 | -0.0430035878289512 |
26 | 0.47 | 0.461721206712313 | 0.00827879328768727 |
27 | 0.44 | 0.461968083047908 | -0.0219680830479085 |
28 | 0.45 | 0.431312987594445 | 0.0186870124055554 |
29 | 0.43 | 0.441870240443453 | -0.0118702404434531 |
30 | 0.41 | 0.421516265973807 | -0.0115162659738068 |
31 | 0.4 | 0.401172847139133 | -0.00117284713913329 |
32 | 0.37 | 0.39113787245214 | -0.0211378724521396 |
33 | 0.37 | 0.360507534151383 | 0.00949246584861702 |
34 | 0.4 | 0.360790602601463 | 0.0392093973985375 |
35 | 0.45 | 0.391959839712995 | 0.0580401602870049 |
36 | 0.4 | 0.443690616360162 | -0.0436906163601616 |
37 | 0.38 | 0.392387747827019 | -0.0123877478270192 |
38 | 0.43 | 0.372018341117183 | 0.057981658882817 |
39 | 0.53 | 0.423747373233258 | 0.106252626766742 |
40 | 0.59 | 0.526915861469655 | 0.0630841385303451 |
41 | 0.57 | 0.58879705120509 | -0.0187970512050903 |
42 | 0.61 | 0.56823651696293 | 0.0417634830370704 |
43 | 0.57 | 0.609481917747274 | -0.0394819177472738 |
44 | 0.56 | 0.568304553989413 | -0.00830455398941321 |
45 | 0.53 | 0.558056909461229 | -0.0280569094612291 |
46 | 0.55 | 0.527220243203813 | 0.022779756796187 |
47 | 0.55 | 0.547899543035102 | 0.00210045696489769 |
48 | 0.58 | 0.54796217935184 | 0.0320378206481602 |
49 | 0.58 | 0.578917557688663 | 0.00108244231133714 |
50 | 0.56 | 0.578949836473992 | -0.0189498364739917 |
51 | 0.52 | 0.558384746124919 | -0.0383847461249194 |
52 | 0.49 | 0.517240100385281 | -0.0272401003852814 |
53 | 0.48 | 0.486427791642849 | -0.00642779164284885 |
54 | 0.46 | 0.476236112784395 | -0.0162361127843949 |
55 | 0.47 | 0.455751946567261 | 0.0142480534327388 |
56 | 0.44 | 0.466176828201409 | -0.0261768282014094 |
57 | 0.45 | 0.435396226584807 | 0.0146037734151929 |
58 | 0.45 | 0.445831715905694 | 0.00416828409430642 |
59 | 0.43 | 0.445956015506754 | -0.0159560155067544 |
60 | 0.44 | 0.425480201882458 | 0.0145197981175423 |
61 | 0.45 | 0.435913187032381 | 0.0140868129676194 |
62 | 0.45 | 0.446333260422888 | 0.00366673957711194 |
63 | 0.45 | 0.446442603801678 | 0.00355739619832174 |
64 | 0.46 | 0.446548686524991 | 0.0134513134750086 |
65 | 0.46 | 0.456949809111854 | 0.00305019088814568 |
66 | 0.45 | 0.45704076680619 | -0.00704076680619037 |
67 | 0.43 | 0.44683080882699 | -0.0168308088269905 |
68 | 0.44 | 0.426328908578496 | 0.0136710914215036 |
69 | 0.47 | 0.436736585015925 | 0.0332634149840745 |
70 | 0.47 | 0.467728510978479 | 0.00227148902152102 |
71 | 0.5 | 0.467796247527332 | 0.0322037524726675 |
72 | 0.51 | 0.498756574005674 | 0.0112434259943255 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 0.509091856662526 | 0.450815815849738 | 0.567367897475314 |
74 | 0.508183713325052 | 0.42453110246296 | 0.591836324187144 |
75 | 0.507275569987578 | 0.403299480978493 | 0.611251658996664 |
76 | 0.506367426650105 | 0.384539924625775 | 0.628194928674434 |
77 | 0.505459283312631 | 0.367269056568604 | 0.643649510056657 |
78 | 0.504551139975157 | 0.350990524543366 | 0.658111755406948 |
79 | 0.503642996637683 | 0.335414129453437 | 0.671871863821929 |
80 | 0.502734853300209 | 0.320353806679648 | 0.685115899920771 |
81 | 0.501826709962735 | 0.305682411496853 | 0.697971008428617 |
82 | 0.500918566625261 | 0.291308903945289 | 0.710528229305234 |
83 | 0.500010423287788 | 0.277165722334949 | 0.722855124240626 |
84 | 0.499102279950314 | 0.263201292342269 | 0.735003267558359 |