Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.203563261518397 |
beta | 0 |
gamma | 0.348668455960461 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 50 | 48.2061965811966 | 1.79380341880342 |
14 | 37 | 35.6727476570497 | 1.32725234295035 |
15 | 37 | 35.9609927409038 | 1.03900725909617 |
16 | 35 | 33.9822283820387 | 1.01777161796133 |
17 | 33 | 31.9158078934703 | 1.08419210652966 |
18 | 40 | 38.8629081761866 | 1.13709182381339 |
19 | 38 | 36.6957768978866 | 1.30422310211343 |
20 | 39 | 41.7293340743657 | -2.72933407436568 |
21 | 52 | 48.2751405298131 | 3.72485947018689 |
22 | 48 | 46.218117006994 | 1.78188299300602 |
23 | 49 | 44.9322415220931 | 4.06775847790695 |
24 | 50 | 49.7783529729902 | 0.221647027009837 |
25 | 48 | 56.1313296183187 | -8.13132961831869 |
26 | 45 | 41.4479305691422 | 3.55206943085781 |
27 | 42 | 42.1090232158284 | -0.109023215828429 |
28 | 39 | 39.890665053695 | -0.890665053694995 |
29 | 38 | 37.454201434589 | 0.545798565410955 |
30 | 44 | 44.3063944198473 | -0.30639441984728 |
31 | 47 | 41.8918334542481 | 5.1081665457519 |
32 | 45 | 46.5796457214438 | -1.57964572144379 |
33 | 51 | 55.1517667758622 | -4.15176677586217 |
34 | 51 | 50.9518017859591 | 0.0481982140409443 |
35 | 47 | 49.9477819490803 | -2.94778194908033 |
36 | 49 | 52.2977513134289 | -3.29775131342895 |
37 | 44 | 55.6147498905364 | -11.6147498905364 |
38 | 40 | 43.4666451963206 | -3.46664519632059 |
39 | 40 | 41.6823279157577 | -1.68232791575772 |
40 | 38 | 38.9266467447559 | -0.926646744755907 |
41 | 36 | 36.8817535590207 | -0.881753559020723 |
42 | 45 | 43.206701889878 | 1.79329811012203 |
43 | 39 | 42.7231434394144 | -3.72314343941442 |
44 | 43 | 43.7560710181582 | -0.756071018158153 |
45 | 50 | 51.7815832392148 | -1.7815832392148 |
46 | 49 | 49.2303987634737 | -0.230398763473701 |
47 | 47 | 47.3377059915946 | -0.337705991594561 |
48 | 49 | 50.1218071091895 | -1.12180710918951 |
49 | 58 | 51.572180956891 | 6.42781904310902 |
50 | 43 | 45.3595469272215 | -2.3595469272215 |
51 | 39 | 44.2960854718204 | -5.2960854718204 |
52 | 44 | 41.0146229201049 | 2.98537707989507 |
53 | 45 | 39.7785405583017 | 5.2214594416983 |
54 | 57 | 48.0887202655232 | 8.9112797344768 |
55 | 54 | 47.5222476537979 | 6.47775234620212 |
56 | 52 | 51.4556362153909 | 0.544363784609111 |
57 | 61 | 59.4610922693393 | 1.53890773066071 |
58 | 59 | 58.0165898553504 | 0.983410144649646 |
59 | 60 | 56.3411855854017 | 3.65881441459827 |
60 | 58 | 59.7210925356065 | -1.72109253560652 |
61 | 52 | 63.1459474501407 | -11.1459474501407 |
62 | 49 | 50.9157557322436 | -1.91575573224357 |
63 | 60 | 49.1271795181148 | 10.8728204818852 |
64 | 51 | 51.4368111429869 | -0.436811142986897 |
65 | 52 | 50.1250399908201 | 1.87496000917987 |
66 | 56 | 58.7786302930294 | -2.77863029302938 |
67 | 56 | 55.1567494865058 | 0.843250513494183 |
68 | 57 | 56.2955037588009 | 0.704496241199088 |
69 | 58 | 64.6097341612241 | -6.6097341612241 |
70 | 100 | 61.3522101867685 | 38.6477898132315 |
71 | 70 | 68.0868292319727 | 1.91317076802727 |
72 | 70 | 69.6174281680747 | 0.382571831925318 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 70.8533015842936 | 58.3558030188835 | 83.3508001497038 |
74 | 63.4551690761573 | 50.70136309459 | 76.2089750577246 |
75 | 65.607860357828 | 52.602797357654 | 78.6129233580019 |
76 | 62.563586797781 | 49.3120298982493 | 75.8151436973127 |
77 | 61.9826955517822 | 48.4891468382466 | 75.4762442653178 |
78 | 68.9623463691583 | 55.2310698987208 | 82.6936228395958 |
79 | 66.9118612649679 | 52.9469033298137 | 80.876819200122 |
80 | 67.8404297100324 | 53.6456367649537 | 82.0352226551111 |
81 | 73.980144600226 | 59.5591791895231 | 88.4011100109288 |
82 | 84.6357886660958 | 69.9921436280692 | 99.2794337041224 |
83 | 73.3022142207347 | 58.4392254021036 | 88.1652030393659 |
84 | 74.0183262326199 | 58.9391839080118 | 89.097468557228 |