Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.919827232958154 |
beta | 0.180193143589243 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 68.02 | 68.34 | -0.320000000000007 |
4 | 68.11 | 68.3326163860404 | -0.222616386040357 |
5 | 68.41 | 68.3779109719107 | 0.0320890280893309 |
6 | 68.4 | 68.6628091801202 | -0.262809180120243 |
7 | 68.4 | 68.6328922677518 | -0.232892267751794 |
8 | 68.55 | 68.5918926537204 | -0.0418926537203674 |
9 | 68.54 | 68.7196361228882 | -0.179636122888212 |
10 | 68.99 | 68.6909053284133 | 0.299094671586687 |
11 | 68.97 | 69.152098069081 | -0.18209806908105 |
12 | 68.98 | 69.1404944939268 | -0.160494493926777 |
13 | 68.98 | 69.1221610651545 | -0.142161065154511 |
14 | 68.94 | 69.0971285158305 | -0.15712851583055 |
15 | 69.21 | 69.0322849866854 | 0.177715013314611 |
16 | 69.21 | 69.3048953066633 | -0.094895306663318 |
17 | 69.67 | 69.3110226596373 | 0.358977340362657 |
18 | 69.66 | 69.7941336931627 | -0.13413369316271 |
19 | 69.66 | 69.8014355708682 | -0.141435570868182 |
20 | 69.66 | 69.7785785231812 | -0.118578523181242 |
21 | 69.77 | 69.7570920280357 | 0.0129079719643386 |
22 | 70.32 | 69.8586898438495 | 0.461310156150532 |
23 | 70.34 | 70.4492007717778 | -0.109200771777765 |
24 | 70.38 | 70.4968405591532 | -0.116840559153189 |
25 | 70.38 | 70.5180871412208 | -0.13808714122078 |
26 | 70.29 | 70.4969030697658 | -0.206903069765801 |
27 | 70.42 | 70.378126760969 | 0.0418732390310339 |
28 | 70.29 | 70.4951220212716 | -0.205122021271578 |
29 | 70.59 | 70.3509260451937 | 0.239073954806301 |
30 | 70.64 | 70.6549393104366 | -0.0149393104365885 |
31 | 70.64 | 70.7228281174528 | -0.0828281174528485 |
32 | 70.68 | 70.7145424753683 | -0.0345424753682977 |
33 | 70.78 | 70.7449459853448 | 0.0350540146551879 |
34 | 70.9 | 70.8451763245299 | 0.0548236754701463 |
35 | 71.04 | 70.9726781717711 | 0.0673218282289412 |
36 | 71.15 | 71.1228345217682 | 0.0271654782318365 |
37 | 71.15 | 71.2405565520475 | -0.090556552047488 |
38 | 71.15 | 71.2349852159091 | -0.0849852159091427 |
39 | 71.07 | 71.2204525392305 | -0.150452539230457 |
40 | 71.17 | 71.1207642447711 | 0.0492357552289349 |
41 | 71.24 | 71.2129153387494 | 0.0270846612506261 |
42 | 71.23 | 71.2891804426957 | -0.0591804426956912 |
43 | 71.23 | 71.2762875999427 | -0.0462875999427297 |
44 | 71.23 | 71.2675819345722 | -0.0375819345722164 |
45 | 71.24 | 71.260654900892 | -0.0206549008920263 |
46 | 71.28 | 71.2658743349803 | 0.0141256650196908 |
47 | 71.52 | 71.305427161166 | 0.214572838833959 |
48 | 71.52 | 71.5649214666446 | -0.0449214666446238 |
49 | 71.52 | 71.57828026455 | -0.0582802645500351 |
50 | 71.6 | 71.5696915229386 | 0.0303084770613822 |
51 | 71.61 | 71.6476126442268 | -0.0376126442267974 |
52 | 71.78 | 71.6568239020429 | 0.123176097957057 |
53 | 71.66 | 71.8343490382655 | -0.17434903826549 |
54 | 71.86 | 71.7093046982531 | 0.150695301746936 |
55 | 71.86 | 71.908222222076 | -0.0482222220760207 |
56 | 71.82 | 71.9161773229172 | -0.0961773229172564 |
57 | 71.8 | 71.8640809555579 | -0.0640809555578841 |
58 | 72.22 | 71.8308865029868 | 0.389113497013199 |
59 | 72.51 | 72.2790468735547 | 0.230953126445286 |
60 | 72.56 | 72.6200067144828 | -0.0600067144828245 |
61 | 72.56 | 72.6833878634857 | -0.123387863485704 |
62 | 72.78 | 72.6680181915789 | 0.111981808421092 |
63 | 72.88 | 72.8877085533073 | -0.00770855330733866 |
64 | 73.05 | 72.9960267945969 | 0.0539732054030679 |
65 | 73.02 | 73.1700274704888 | -0.15002747048878 |
66 | 73.08 | 73.1315162319145 | -0.0515162319145475 |
67 | 73.08 | 73.175079675075 | -0.0950796750750271 |
68 | 73.24 | 73.1628131477222 | 0.0771868522778192 |
69 | 73.82 | 73.3217955188493 | 0.498204481150722 |
70 | 74 | 73.9506170498281 | 0.049382950171875 |
71 | 74.37 | 74.1747853680212 | 0.195214631978843 |
72 | 74.38 | 74.5654497924105 | -0.185449792410466 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 74.5752310473599 | 74.2482789093268 | 74.902183185393 |
74 | 74.755594071715 | 74.2730244051678 | 75.2381637382622 |
75 | 74.93595709607 | 74.3033006461261 | 75.5686135460139 |
76 | 75.1163201204251 | 74.332156124197 | 75.9004841166531 |
77 | 75.2966831447801 | 74.3571493126543 | 76.2362169769059 |
78 | 75.4770461691351 | 74.3772464144048 | 76.5768459238655 |
79 | 75.6574091934902 | 74.391986900328 | 76.9228314866524 |
80 | 75.8377722178452 | 74.4011792236563 | 77.2743652120342 |
81 | 76.0181352422003 | 74.404769064319 | 77.6315014200816 |
82 | 76.1984982665553 | 74.4027755904077 | 77.994220942703 |
83 | 76.3788612909104 | 74.3952581756893 | 78.3624644061315 |
84 | 76.5592243152654 | 74.3822980505871 | 78.7361505799438 |