Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 0.159375563626571 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 0.67 | 0.68 | -0.01 |
4 | 0.67 | 0.678406244363734 | -0.00840624436373427 |
5 | 0.67 | 0.677066494430282 | -0.00706649443028151 |
6 | 0.67 | 0.675940267897591 | -0.00594026789759128 |
7 | 0.67 | 0.67499353435332 | -0.00499353435331984 |
8 | 0.67 | 0.674197687001271 | -0.00419768700127088 |
9 | 0.67 | 0.673528678269515 | -0.00352867826951542 |
10 | 0.67 | 0.672966293181455 | -0.00296629318145458 |
11 | 0.67 | 0.672493538533779 | -0.00249353853377854 |
12 | 0.67 | 0.672096129424533 | -0.00209612942453308 |
13 | 0.67 | 0.671762057616064 | -0.00176205761606385 |
14 | 0.69 | 0.671481228690361 | 0.0185187713096387 |
15 | 0.7 | 0.694432668305506 | 0.00556733169449353 |
16 | 0.7 | 0.705319964932212 | -0.00531996493221243 |
17 | 0.7 | 0.704472092522667 | -0.00447209252266745 |
18 | 0.7 | 0.703759350256277 | -0.00375935025627716 |
19 | 0.7 | 0.703160201690313 | -0.00316020169031328 |
20 | 0.7 | 0.702656542764746 | -0.00265654276474603 |
21 | 0.71 | 0.702233154764316 | 0.00776684523568349 |
22 | 0.71 | 0.713471000101354 | -0.00347100010135393 |
23 | 0.71 | 0.712917807503853 | -0.00291780750385273 |
24 | 0.71 | 0.712452780288372 | -0.00245278028837237 |
25 | 0.71 | 0.712061867047461 | -0.00206186704746092 |
26 | 0.71 | 0.711733255824649 | -0.00173325582464878 |
27 | 0.71 | 0.711457017200686 | -0.00145701720068636 |
28 | 0.71 | 0.711224804263113 | -0.00122480426311333 |
29 | 0.72 | 0.711029600393347 | 0.00897039960665258 |
30 | 0.72 | 0.722459262886613 | -0.00245926288661324 |
31 | 0.72 | 0.722067316477953 | -0.00206731647795333 |
32 | 0.72 | 0.721737836749085 | -0.00173783674908501 |
33 | 0.73 | 0.721460868037709 | 0.00853913196229139 |
34 | 0.73 | 0.73282179700708 | -0.00282179700708052 |
35 | 0.73 | 0.732372071518637 | -0.00237207151863728 |
36 | 0.73 | 0.731994021283392 | -0.00199402128339188 |
37 | 0.73 | 0.731676223017468 | -0.00167622301746795 |
38 | 0.73 | 0.731409074029295 | -0.00140907402929513 |
39 | 0.73 | 0.731184502061685 | -0.00118450206168463 |
40 | 0.73 | 0.730995721377987 | -0.000995721377986869 |
41 | 0.73 | 0.730837027722155 | -0.000837027722155215 |
42 | 0.73 | 0.730703625957166 | -0.000703625957165666 |
43 | 0.73 | 0.73059148517366 | -0.000591485173660034 |
44 | 0.73 | 0.730497216890731 | -0.000497216890731234 |
45 | 0.74 | 0.730417972668526 | 0.00958202733147373 |
46 | 0.75 | 0.741945113675165 | 0.00805488632483486 |
47 | 0.75 | 0.753228865723134 | -0.00322886572313363 |
48 | 0.75 | 0.752714263428635 | -0.00271426342863468 |
49 | 0.75 | 0.752281676164865 | -0.00228167616486508 |
50 | 0.76 | 0.751918032740076 | 0.00808196725992361 |
51 | 0.76 | 0.763206100827338 | -0.00320610082733819 |
52 | 0.76 | 0.762695126700938 | -0.00269512670093752 |
53 | 0.77 | 0.762265589363931 | 0.00773441063606939 |
54 | 0.77 | 0.773498265418374 | -0.0034982654183735 |
55 | 0.78 | 0.772940727395605 | 0.00705927260439509 |
56 | 0.78 | 0.784065802945724 | -0.00406580294572401 |
57 | 0.78 | 0.783417813309655 | -0.00341781330965463 |
58 | 0.78 | 0.782873097387058 | -0.00287309738705799 |
59 | 0.79 | 0.782415195871642 | 0.00758480412835838 |
60 | 0.79 | 0.793624028304596 | -0.00362402830459585 |
61 | 0.79 | 0.793046446750952 | -0.00304644675095223 |
62 | 0.8 | 0.792560917582961 | 0.00743908241703906 |
63 | 0.8 | 0.803746525536041 | -0.00374652553604105 |
64 | 0.8 | 0.803149420917093 | -0.00314942091709314 |
65 | 0.8 | 0.802647480183334 | -0.00264748018333416 |
66 | 0.81 | 0.802225536536925 | 0.00777446346307498 |
67 | 0.8 | 0.813464596033247 | -0.0134645960332468 |
68 | 0.81 | 0.801318668451444 | 0.00868133154855599 |
69 | 0.82 | 0.812702260560024 | 0.00729773943997569 |
70 | 0.82 | 0.82386534189647 | -0.00386534189647025 |
71 | 0.82 | 0.823249300853111 | -0.00324930085311093 |
72 | 0.82 | 0.822731441698254 | -0.00273144169825401 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 0.822296116638082 | 0.811652129322537 | 0.832940103953626 |
74 | 0.824592233276163 | 0.808295625815315 | 0.840888840737011 |
75 | 0.826888349914245 | 0.805379971677628 | 0.848396728150862 |
76 | 0.829184466552327 | 0.802535963536706 | 0.855832969567948 |
77 | 0.831480583190408 | 0.799638283671743 | 0.863322882709074 |
78 | 0.83377669982849 | 0.796631931698257 | 0.870921467958724 |
79 | 0.836072816466572 | 0.793489915162156 | 0.878655717770988 |
80 | 0.838368933104653 | 0.790198438204915 | 0.886539428004392 |
81 | 0.840665049742735 | 0.786750593669321 | 0.894579505816149 |
82 | 0.842961166380817 | 0.783143318241558 | 0.902779014520076 |
83 | 0.845257283018898 | 0.779375789305301 | 0.911138776732496 |
84 | 0.84755339965698 | 0.775448525788753 | 0.919658273525208 |