Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 0 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 1.28 | 1.26 | 0.02 |
4 | 1.34 | 1.28 | 0.0600000000000001 |
5 | 1.39 | 1.34 | 0.0499999999999998 |
6 | 1.47 | 1.39 | 0.0800000000000001 |
7 | 1.57 | 1.47 | 0.1 |
8 | 1.63 | 1.57 | 0.0599999999999998 |
9 | 1.72 | 1.63 | 0.0900000000000001 |
10 | 1.43 | 1.72 | -0.29 |
11 | 1.35 | 1.43 | -0.0799999999999998 |
12 | 1.41 | 1.35 | 0.0599999999999998 |
13 | 1.44 | 1.41 | 0.03 |
14 | 1.43 | 1.44 | -0.01 |
15 | 1.43 | 1.43 | 0 |
16 | 1.42 | 1.43 | -0.01 |
17 | 1.45 | 1.42 | 0.03 |
18 | 1.51 | 1.45 | 0.0600000000000001 |
19 | 1.48 | 1.51 | -0.03 |
20 | 1.48 | 1.48 | 0 |
21 | 1.45 | 1.48 | -0.03 |
22 | 1.38 | 1.45 | -0.0700000000000001 |
23 | 1.46 | 1.38 | 0.0800000000000001 |
24 | 1.45 | 1.46 | -0.01 |
25 | 1.41 | 1.45 | -0.04 |
26 | 1.45 | 1.41 | 0.04 |
27 | 1.47 | 1.45 | 0.02 |
28 | 1.47 | 1.47 | 0 |
29 | 1.53 | 1.47 | 0.0600000000000001 |
30 | 1.56 | 1.53 | 0.03 |
31 | 1.66 | 1.56 | 0.0999999999999999 |
32 | 1.79 | 1.66 | 0.13 |
33 | 1.78 | 1.79 | -0.01 |
34 | 1.46 | 1.78 | -0.32 |
35 | 1.41 | 1.46 | -0.05 |
36 | 1.43 | 1.41 | 0.02 |
37 | 1.43 | 1.43 | 0 |
38 | 1.45 | 1.43 | 0.02 |
39 | 1.35 | 1.45 | -0.0999999999999999 |
40 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 0 |
41 | 1.29 | 1.35 | -0.0600000000000001 |
42 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 0 |
43 | 1.26 | 1.29 | -0.03 |
44 | 1.3 | 1.26 | 0.04 |
45 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0 |
46 | 1.16 | 1.3 | -0.14 |
47 | 1.24 | 1.16 | 0.0800000000000001 |
48 | 1.15 | 1.24 | -0.0900000000000001 |
49 | 1.21 | 1.15 | 0.0600000000000001 |
50 | 1.22 | 1.21 | 0.01 |
51 | 1.17 | 1.22 | -0.05 |
52 | 1.13 | 1.17 | -0.04 |
53 | 1.15 | 1.13 | 0.02 |
54 | 1.2 | 1.15 | 0.05 |
55 | 1.23 | 1.2 | 0.03 |
56 | 1.25 | 1.23 | 0.02 |
57 | 1.38 | 1.25 | 0.13 |
58 | 1.28 | 1.38 | -0.0999999999999999 |
59 | 1.26 | 1.28 | -0.02 |
60 | 1.25 | 1.26 | -0.01 |
61 | 1.26 | 1.25 | 0.01 |
62 | 1.28 | 1.26 | 0.02 |
63 | 1.31 | 1.28 | 0.03 |
64 | 1.22 | 1.31 | -0.0900000000000001 |
65 | 1.23 | 1.22 | 0.01 |
66 | 1.36 | 1.23 | 0.13 |
67 | 1.54 | 1.36 | 0.18 |
68 | 1.58 | 1.54 | 0.04 |
69 | 1.44 | 1.58 | -0.14 |
70 | 1.29 | 1.44 | -0.15 |
71 | 1.28 | 1.29 | -0.01 |
72 | 1.23 | 1.28 | -0.05 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 1.23 | 1.06600285588858 | 1.39399714411142 |
74 | 1.23 | 0.998073014607171 | 1.46192698539283 |
75 | 1.23 | 0.94594861410282 | 1.51405138589718 |
76 | 1.23 | 0.902005711777154 | 1.55799428822285 |
77 | 1.23 | 0.863291237651029 | 1.59670876234897 |
78 | 1.23 | 0.828290677653335 | 1.63170932234666 |
79 | 1.23 | 0.796104340956354 | 1.66389565904365 |
80 | 1.23 | 0.766146029214341 | 1.69385397078566 |
81 | 1.23 | 0.738008567665731 | 1.72199143233427 |
82 | 1.23 | 0.711395494845033 | 1.74860450515497 |
83 | 1.23 | 0.686083006292568 | 1.77391699370743 |
84 | 1.23 | 0.661897228205641 | 1.79810277179436 |