| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.832763480172306 |
| beta | 0.24730359976672 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 514 | 533.730891379087 | -19.7308913790873 |
| 14 | 517 | 515.523547216964 | 1.47645278303582 |
| 15 | 508 | 503.724039486275 | 4.2759605137249 |
| 16 | 493 | 489.109305914773 | 3.89069408522664 |
| 17 | 490 | 486.561079008599 | 3.43892099140101 |
| 18 | 469 | 465.832033090158 | 3.16796690984222 |
| 19 | 478 | 468.011432658269 | 9.98856734173074 |
| 20 | 528 | 532.232351603279 | -4.23235160327943 |
| 21 | 534 | 539.755960533725 | -5.75596053372544 |
| 22 | 518 | 513.284902116449 | 4.71509788355092 |
| 23 | 506 | 503.768564650918 | 2.23143534908201 |
| 24 | 502 | 490.746211070058 | 11.2537889299425 |
| 25 | 516 | 504.057666201369 | 11.9423337986307 |
| 26 | 528 | 525.791416232073 | 2.20858376792694 |
| 27 | 533 | 524.987878122477 | 8.01212187752265 |
| 28 | 536 | 523.362828737222 | 12.6371712627783 |
| 29 | 537 | 540.228078320548 | -3.22807832054775 |
| 30 | 524 | 522.462943293375 | 1.53705670662475 |
| 31 | 536 | 535.075119525826 | 0.924880474174188 |
| 32 | 587 | 605.306573204061 | -18.3065732040614 |
| 33 | 597 | 608.939639495367 | -11.9396394953675 |
| 34 | 581 | 582.161919705784 | -1.1619197057837 |
| 35 | 564 | 569.74329515312 | -5.74329515312013 |
| 36 | 558 | 552.327079371309 | 5.67292062869103 |
| 37 | 575 | 562.425301629241 | 12.5746983707593 |
| 38 | 580 | 584.952497062059 | -4.95249706205868 |
| 39 | 575 | 578.265057088727 | -3.26505708872742 |
| 40 | 563 | 564.359588084106 | -1.35958808410589 |
| 41 | 552 | 561.250698107948 | -9.25069810794776 |
| 42 | 537 | 532.181141877594 | 4.81885812240603 |
| 43 | 545 | 541.712684811124 | 3.28731518887628 |
| 44 | 601 | 605.635258606133 | -4.63525860613345 |
| 45 | 604 | 618.891716080579 | -14.8917160805794 |
| 46 | 586 | 587.497740382745 | -1.49774038274506 |
| 47 | 564 | 570.230457196768 | -6.23045719676759 |
| 48 | 549 | 550.592728443555 | -1.59272844355507 |
| 49 | 551 | 550.441554706983 | 0.558445293016689 |
| 50 | 556 | 552.035653821932 | 3.96434617806779 |
| 51 | 548 | 547.393208950207 | 0.606791049792605 |
| 52 | 540 | 532.681321820628 | 7.31867817937155 |
| 53 | 531 | 532.534918486278 | -1.53491848627766 |
| 54 | 521 | 511.441413228645 | 9.55858677135456 |
| 55 | 519 | 523.979747255182 | -4.97974725518202 |
| 56 | 572 | 574.5318491999 | -2.53184919990042 |
| 57 | 581 | 584.994653235604 | -3.99465323560446 |
| 58 | 563 | 565.58864395149 | -2.5886439514901 |
| 59 | 548 | 547.079430326865 | 0.920569673135446 |
| 60 | 539 | 535.812785716841 | 3.18721428315882 |
| 61 | 541 | 542.250925172943 | -1.25092517294331 |
| 62 | 562 | 544.804698914767 | 17.1953010852333 |
| 63 | 559 | 555.25266469876 | 3.74733530124024 |
| 64 | 546 | 549.244619523082 | -3.24461952308229 |
| 65 | 536 | 541.721559699757 | -5.72155969975677 |
| 66 | 528 | 520.838331641258 | 7.16166835874162 |
| 67 | 530 | 530.516510940078 | -0.516510940078206 |
| 68 | 582 | 589.116842543579 | -7.11684254357874 |
| 69 | 599 | 597.607171185012 | 1.39282881498775 |
| 70 | 584 | 585.359008856418 | -1.35900885641774 |
| 71 | 571 | 570.994808770457 | 0.00519122954324303 |
| 72 | 563 | 561.741695136998 | 1.25830486300242 |
| 73 | 565 | 568.450328334038 | -3.45032833403843 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 74 | 574.5599280751 | 560.738863305916 | 588.380992844284 |
| 75 | 566.724652562858 | 546.946483412471 | 586.502821713244 |
| 76 | 553.996064589159 | 528.271627951709 | 579.720501226609 |
| 77 | 547.086492821294 | 515.009832090377 | 579.16315355221 |
| 78 | 532.430128090011 | 494.245994916798 | 570.614261263224 |
| 79 | 533.010255782625 | 487.483198686596 | 578.537312878655 |
| 80 | 589.312826652019 | 530.855288863942 | 647.770364440095 |
| 81 | 604.862617974308 | 536.123968686118 | 673.601267262498 |
| 82 | 590.101949949686 | 514.119878342458 | 666.084021556914 |
| 83 | 576.498732079339 | 493.218586433754 | 659.778877724923 |
| 84 | 566.908141307183 | 475.798912660009 | 658.017369954356 |
| 85 | 571.094018602271 | 467.046965121546 | 675.141072082996 |
