Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.917973317029507 |
beta | 0.0503862068439166 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 105.82 | 105.93 | -0.109999999999999 |
4 | 105.72 | 105.93393508385 | -0.213935083849549 |
5 | 105.76 | 105.832565353207 | -0.0725653532074375 |
6 | 105.8 | 105.857612883812 | -0.0576128838122969 |
7 | 105.09 | 105.893721602487 | -0.803721602486604 |
8 | 105.06 | 105.207747735072 | -0.147747735071917 |
9 | 105.16 | 105.117106570044 | 0.0428934299564077 |
10 | 105.2 | 105.203452865751 | -0.00345286575127091 |
11 | 105.21 | 105.247094792589 | -0.0370947925886753 |
12 | 105.23 | 105.258138575639 | -0.028138575639062 |
13 | 105.19 | 105.276102427889 | -0.0861024278888749 |
14 | 105.16 | 105.236874498169 | -0.0768744981692748 |
15 | 104.88 | 105.20256187067 | -0.3225618706701 |
16 | 104.52 | 104.927795274287 | -0.407795274287139 |
17 | 104.09 | 104.555924853963 | -0.46592485396306 |
18 | 104.35 | 104.109142518173 | 0.240857481827376 |
19 | 104.48 | 104.322307935281 | 0.157692064718631 |
20 | 104.47 | 104.466423480156 | 0.00357651984367635 |
21 | 104.55 | 104.469230492561 | 0.0807695074392569 |
22 | 104.59 | 104.54663445549 | 0.0433655445095553 |
23 | 104.59 | 104.591708373418 | -0.00170837341786978 |
24 | 104.72 | 104.595326619668 | 0.124673380332183 |
25 | 104.65 | 104.720726485596 | -0.0707264855956424 |
26 | 104.72 | 104.663483162632 | 0.0565168373682212 |
27 | 104.92 | 104.72565989913 | 0.194340100870306 |
28 | 105.05 | 104.923343564265 | 0.126656435734972 |
29 | 103.74 | 105.064753695428 | -1.32475369542844 |
30 | 103.81 | 103.812533965197 | -0.00253396519705973 |
31 | 103.79 | 103.773959462586 | 0.0160405374143693 |
32 | 104.28 | 103.753177783828 | 0.526822216171666 |
33 | 103.8 | 104.225647266865 | -0.42564726686507 |
34 | 103.8 | 103.804087633822 | -0.00408763382235122 |
35 | 104.02 | 103.769319429332 | 0.250680570668266 |
36 | 104.02 | 103.980016415515 | 0.0399835844849576 |
37 | 104.91 | 103.999148558871 | 0.910851441129282 |
38 | 104.97 | 104.859843945176 | 0.110156054823761 |
39 | 103.86 | 104.990617401096 | -1.13061740109579 |
40 | 104.17 | 103.930099266656 | 0.239900733344427 |
41 | 103.21 | 104.13877638516 | -0.928776385159708 |
42 | 103.21 | 103.231680218859 | -0.0216802188589753 |
43 | 101.91 | 103.156271349846 | -1.24627134984561 |
44 | 101.84 | 101.899076468506 | -0.059076468506035 |
45 | 101.91 | 101.728962335025 | 0.18103766497471 |
46 | 101.79 | 101.787640139258 | 0.00235986074244465 |
47 | 101.79 | 101.682405637955 | 0.107594362045432 |
48 | 101.79 | 101.678750183718 | 0.111249816281813 |
49 | 102.09 | 101.683595998204 | 0.406404001796147 |
50 | 102.18 | 101.978182962307 | 0.201817037693331 |
51 | 102.2 | 102.094299234833 | 0.105700765167271 |
52 | 101.97 | 102.127072331784 | -0.15707233178442 |
53 | 102.05 | 101.911361640357 | 0.138638359643124 |
54 | 102.04 | 101.973517940085 | 0.0664820599145912 |
55 | 101.78 | 101.972511689584 | -0.192511689584379 |
56 | 101.79 | 101.72485180735 | 0.0651481926498576 |
57 | 101.8 | 101.716730133832 | 0.0832698661678819 |
58 | 101.83 | 101.72909517029 | 0.100904829709791 |
59 | 101.83 | 101.762315803333 | 0.0676841966669457 |
60 | 101.88 | 101.768171391908 | 0.111828608091727 |
61 | 101.9 | 101.819722802508 | 0.0802771974916396 |
62 | 101.91 | 101.846023936806 | 0.0639760631935218 |
63 | 101.17 | 101.860320162007 | -0.690320162007311 |
64 | 101.17 | 101.150263067356 | 0.0197369326435961 |
65 | 101.23 | 101.092932335326 | 0.13706766467422 |
66 | 101.26 | 101.149647901774 | 0.110352098226144 |
67 | 101.49 | 101.186943428018 | 0.303056571982168 |
68 | 101.51 | 101.415153853486 | 0.0948461465141293 |
69 | 101.61 | 101.456619601208 | 0.153380398792379 |
70 | 101.39 | 101.558912563907 | -0.168912563906645 |
71 | 101.43 | 101.357536441091 | 0.0724635589093907 |
72 | 101.44 | 101.381088829395 | 0.0589111706054695 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 101.394925316623 | 100.678834235229 | 102.111016398016 |
74 | 101.35468292116 | 100.359926273605 | 102.349439568715 |
75 | 101.314440525697 | 100.084346528844 | 102.54453452255 |
76 | 101.274198130234 | 99.8299848966705 | 102.718411363798 |
77 | 101.233955734772 | 99.5878704623732 | 102.88004100717 |
78 | 101.193713339309 | 99.3533710101365 | 103.034055668481 |
79 | 101.153470943846 | 99.1237578052368 | 103.183184082455 |
80 | 101.113228548383 | 98.8972823845659 | 103.329174712201 |
81 | 101.072986152921 | 98.6727570214296 | 103.473215284411 |
82 | 101.032743757458 | 98.4493396193802 | 103.616147895535 |
83 | 100.992501361995 | 98.2264133953343 | 103.758589328656 |
84 | 100.952258966532 | 98.0035149886501 | 103.901002944414 |