| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.972370526401443 |
| beta | 0.0390650774282604 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 1133976 | 1134108 | -132 |
| 4 | 1111920 | 1123444.63297417 | -11524.6329741681 |
| 5 | 1330188 | 1101265.63383076 | 228922.36616924 |
| 6 | 1318626 | 1321585.9929861 | -2959.99298609607 |
| 7 | 1155168 | 1316318.34301227 | -161150.343012266 |
| 8 | 1046484 | 1151109.64570845 | -104625.645708448 |
| 9 | 1056978 | 1036889.61655784 | 20088.3834421647 |
| 10 | 1056978 | 1044700.90548967 | 12277.0945103328 |
| 11 | 1068672 | 1045383.08168704 | 23288.918312959 |
| 12 | 1089696 | 1057657.47735278 | 32038.5226472204 |
| 13 | 1155168 | 1079656.73705859 | 75511.2629414087 |
| 14 | 1133976 | 1146795.95856709 | -12819.9585670901 |
| 15 | 1166694 | 1127557.52823619 | 39136.4717638076 |
| 16 | 1220472 | 1160326.62686186 | 60145.3731381407 |
| 17 | 1526400 | 1215808.82787493 | 310591.172125067 |
| 18 | 1526400 | 1526615.1746585 | -215.174658500357 |
| 19 | 1461096 | 1535194.41684476 | -74098.4168447612 |
| 20 | 1395624 | 1469117.08948563 | -73493.0894856299 |
| 21 | 1449402 | 1400836.67596242 | 48565.3240375833 |
| 22 | 1514838 | 1453087.05553003 | 61750.9444699697 |
| 23 | 1526400 | 1520504.39847629 | 5895.60152370576 |
| 24 | 1559118 | 1533833.60092666 | 25284.3990733395 |
| 25 | 1657302 | 1566976.34501061 | 90325.6549893897 |
| 26 | 1591836 | 1666794.37528118 | -74958.375281184 |
| 27 | 1591836 | 1603047.73743442 | -11211.7374344221 |
| 28 | 1690020 | 1600860.56535711 | 89159.4346428872 |
| 29 | 1962198 | 1699658.14891078 | 262539.85108922 |
| 30 | 1984254 | 1977018.50714427 | 7235.49285572628 |
| 31 | 1929480 | 2006403.27764701 | -76923.2776470142 |
| 32 | 1798572 | 1951032.55332677 | -152460.553326767 |
| 33 | 1896726 | 1816420.28309136 | 80305.7169086393 |
| 34 | 1896726 | 1911193.5448454 | -14467.5448454018 |
| 35 | 1907256 | 1913262.51992803 | -6006.51992802974 |
| 36 | 1962198 | 1923330.58421982 | 38867.4157801836 |
| 37 | 2005446 | 1978509.14815575 | 26936.8518442502 |
| 38 | 2027502 | 2023109.99933562 | 4392.00066437805 |
| 39 | 2027502 | 2045955.73505705 | -18453.7350570497 |
| 40 | 2092938 | 2045885.97211343 | 47052.0278865709 |
| 41 | 2344086 | 2111299.3879883 | 232786.612011695 |
| 42 | 2409390 | 2366158.20856875 | 43231.7914312482 |
| 43 | 2419884 | 2438341.69963198 | -18457.6996319816 |
| 44 | 2256426 | 2449839.01860377 | -193413.018603773 |
| 45 | 2344086 | 2283868.00728586 | 60217.9927141424 |
| 46 | 2311368 | 2366807.7403614 | -55439.7403614037 |
| 47 | 2245902 | 2335179.38364063 | -89277.3836406325 |
| 48 | 2387334 | 2267257.03333085 | 120076.966669151 |
| 49 | 2419884 | 2407465.89405967 | 12418.1059403331 |
| 50 | 2365110 | 2443462.16252798 | -78352.1625279789 |
| 51 | 2376672 | 2388219.83318107 | -11547.8331810674 |
| 52 | 2452638 | 2397497.41185493 | 55140.5881450712 |
| 53 | 2736510 | 2473715.40136653 | 262794.598633469 |
| 54 | 2877744 | 2761832.47500972 | 115911.52499028 |
| 55 | 2877744 | 2911527.76089593 | -33783.7608959265 |
| 56 | 2812440 | 2914380.46202865 | -101940.462028653 |
| 57 | 2910492 | 2847087.31294637 | 63404.6870536255 |
| 58 | 2812440 | 2942979.38683215 | -130539.386832149 |
| 59 | 2757528 | 2845327.32561129 | -87799.3256112854 |
| 60 | 2965434 | 2785899.31874986 | 179534.681250139 |
| 61 | 2997984 | 2993238.77677545 | 4745.22322455421 |
| 62 | 2920992 | 3030798.36825901 | -109806.368259006 |
| 63 | 3117198 | 2952800.29338528 | 164397.706614723 |
| 64 | 3194196 | 3147674.94601805 | 46521.0539819524 |
| 65 | 3423126 | 3229696.9520712 | 193429.047928795 |
| 66 | 3575052 | 3461915.50510102 | 113136.494898982 |
| 67 | 3554034 | 3620357.5184125 | -66323.518412502 |
| 68 | 3542334 | 3601778.55685567 | -59444.5568556655 |
| 69 | 3629994 | 3587630.44988803 | 42363.5501119671 |
| 70 | 3619332 | 3674086.75585673 | -54754.7558567296 |
| 71 | 3488592 | 3664028.18416056 | -175436.184160559 |
| 72 | 3684768 | 3529958.47699101 | 154809.52300899 |
| 73 | 3750240 | 3722890.51467114 | 27349.4853288624 |
| 74 | 3684768 | 3792923.05857978 | -108155.058579776 |
| 75 | 3956946 | 3727086.62895535 | 229859.371044653 |
| 76 | 4087854 | 3998656.84418024 | 89197.1558197555 |
| 77 | 4392612 | 4136839.48621119 | 255772.513788814 |
| 78 | 4512858 | 4446710.80238136 | 66147.197618641 |
| 79 | 4480272 | 4574708.69963067 | -94436.6996306721 |
| 80 | 4414800 | 4542972.30121499 | -128172.301214989 |
| 81 | 4469610 | 4473563.67971332 | -3953.67971331812 |
| 82 | 4535046 | 4524791.40118038 | 10254.5988196237 |
| 83 | 4316646 | 4590224.36234479 | -273578.362344794 |
| 84 | 4490766 | 4369274.4438724 | 121491.556127602 |
| 85 | 4600518 | 4537093.81542692 | 63424.1845730813 |
| 86 | 4556238 | 4650859.40028072 | -94621.4002807224 |
| 87 | 4839942 | 4607351.85364072 | 232590.146359283 |
| 88 | 4937958 | 4890850.27732935 | 47107.722670652 |
| 89 | 5352606 | 4995780.48028735 | 356825.519712646 |
| 90 | 5428566 | 5415425.41840522 | 13140.5815947792 |
| 91 | 5330544 | 5501380.4069124 | -170836.406912396 |
| 92 | 5385324 | 5401952.24864855 | -16628.2486485532 |
| 93 | 5418042 | 5451839.9222492 | -33797.922249198 |
| 94 | 5450760 | 5483748.47254681 | -32988.4725468075 |
| 95 | 5242854 | 5515191.01666956 | -272337.016669556 |
| 96 | 5439066 | 5303553.1705925 | 135512.829407503 |
| 97 | 5547744 | 5493644.04777438 | 54099.9522256237 |
| 98 | 5439066 | 5606626.46888806 | -167560.468888056 |
| 99 | 5755650 | 5497707.92292749 | 257942.077072512 |
| 100 | 5853708 | 5812333.629638 | 41374.3703619977 |
| 101 | 6278808 | 5917946.91703033 | 360861.082969668 |
| 102 | 6344280 | 6347927.23896938 | -3647.23896937631 |
| 103 | 6365304 | 6423331.86899246 | -58027.8689924637 |
| 104 | 6475020 | 6443654.14621557 | 31365.8537844252 |
| 105 | 6475020 | 6552091.69956226 | -77071.6995622618 |
| 106 | 6518268 | 6552160.14731682 | -33892.1473168219 |
| 107 | 6322056 | 6592927.70106425 | -270871.701064254 |
| 108 | 6420246 | 6392974.06211297 | 27271.9378870307 |
| 109 | 6485550 | 6483962.45477849 | 1587.54522150848 |
| 110 | 6365304 | 6550036.40509153 | -184732.405091532 |
| 111 | 6714474 | 6427921.13199548 | 286552.868004518 |
| 112 | 6779916 | 6774954.68783199 | 4961.3121680133 |
| 113 | 7215582 | 6848365.37335353 | 367216.626646474 |
| 114 | 7292580 | 7287971.44130183 | 4608.55869817082 |
| 115 | 7401258 | 7375163.17080778 | 26094.8291922202 |
| 116 | 7499448 | 7484238.74759799 | 15209.2524020113 |
| 117 | 7509942 | 7583307.24490829 | -73365.2449082863 |
| 118 | 7521504 | 7593461.67926589 | -71957.6792658856 |
| 119 | 7325298 | 7602251.4239991 | -276953.423999102 |
| 120 | 7521504 | 7401189.07055633 | 120314.929443669 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 7590989.00548647 | 7334619.69925953 | 7847358.3117134 |
| 122 | 7663798.24913951 | 7299355.07663218 | 8028241.42164684 |
| 123 | 7736607.49279255 | 7283780.57328201 | 8189434.41230309 |
| 124 | 7809416.7364456 | 7277801.20599357 | 8341032.26689762 |
| 125 | 7882225.98009864 | 7277497.06773851 | 8486954.89245877 |
| 126 | 7955035.22375168 | 7280878.08582554 | 8629192.36167783 |
| 127 | 8027844.46740473 | 7286779.61758441 | 8768909.31722505 |
| 128 | 8100653.71105777 | 7294456.13948148 | 8906851.28263406 |
| 129 | 8173462.95471081 | 7303399.8783482 | 9043526.03107343 |
| 130 | 8246272.19836386 | 7313248.89702281 | 9179295.4997049 |
| 131 | 8319081.4420169 | 7323736.09074092 | 9314426.79329288 |
| 132 | 8391890.68566994 | 7334658.87989715 | 9449122.49144274 |
