Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 0.0313932057167741 |
gamma | 0.088434070466107 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 104.18 | 102.914457799145 | 1.26554220085472 |
14 | 103.73 | 103.83776992782 | -0.107769927820215 |
15 | 103.78 | 103.886886684306 | -0.106886684306033 |
16 | 103.61 | 103.700614501971 | -0.0906145019705775 |
17 | 103.84 | 103.898603155603 | -0.0586031556026114 |
18 | 103.86 | 103.93468008135 | -0.0746800813498254 |
19 | 104.14 | 105.216085634193 | -1.07608563419306 |
20 | 104.05 | 103.790220523177 | 0.259779476823368 |
21 | 104.01 | 103.863375833734 | 0.146624166266463 |
22 | 104.49 | 103.985895503015 | 0.504104496985136 |
23 | 104.83 | 104.500470959191 | 0.329529040808538 |
24 | 104.78 | 105.619565932159 | -0.839565932159218 |
25 | 104.95 | 105.299875932805 | -0.349875932804821 |
26 | 105.28 | 104.561808872338 | 0.718191127662394 |
27 | 105.28 | 105.416855194152 | -0.136855194152247 |
28 | 105.91 | 105.179642204222 | 0.730357795777834 |
29 | 106.81 | 106.203403810085 | 0.606596189914811 |
30 | 106.39 | 106.930363475729 | -0.540363475728881 |
31 | 107.02 | 107.757149733973 | -0.737149733973496 |
32 | 106.92 | 106.691924907397 | 0.228075092602552 |
33 | 107.01 | 106.754084915698 | 0.255915084301591 |
34 | 106.79 | 107.010035577253 | -0.220035577252574 |
35 | 107.41 | 106.801877955111 | 0.608122044889114 |
36 | 107.13 | 108.209718855567 | -1.07971885556699 |
37 | 107.54 | 107.652489686085 | -0.112489686084558 |
38 | 108.48 | 107.161874940895 | 1.31812505910503 |
39 | 108.5 | 108.645755112036 | -0.145755112035872 |
40 | 108.27 | 108.428262725153 | -0.158262725152795 |
41 | 109.42 | 108.564127684198 | 0.855872315801903 |
42 | 110.09 | 109.548912926542 | 0.541087073457959 |
43 | 109.98 | 111.49964938435 | -1.5196493843498 |
44 | 109.99 | 109.669859385276 | 0.320140614723798 |
45 | 109.54 | 109.844909625453 | -0.30490962545251 |
46 | 108.85 | 109.543254201522 | -0.693254201522336 |
47 | 106.76 | 108.85024072976 | -2.09024072975991 |
48 | 107.56 | 107.463371372533 | 0.0966286274670125 |
49 | 106.24 | 108.02307152158 | -1.78307152157987 |
50 | 108.85 | 105.750011857162 | 3.09998814283814 |
51 | 111.11 | 108.95983042265 | 2.1501695773505 |
52 | 111.85 | 111.054414471851 | 0.795585528149431 |
53 | 110.68 | 112.190223785334 | -1.51022378533436 |
54 | 106.96 | 110.78072968603 | -3.82072968602971 |
55 | 106.74 | 108.204534733008 | -1.46453473300798 |
56 | 105.73 | 106.266474959522 | -0.536474959521939 |
57 | 105.66 | 105.394633290756 | 0.265366709244205 |
58 | 104.01 | 105.490880669116 | -1.48088066911612 |
59 | 106.86 | 103.813141077629 | 3.04685892237141 |
60 | 108.84 | 107.527541746569 | 1.31245825343143 |
61 | 110.66 | 109.30541068518 | 1.35458931482009 |
62 | 106.93 | 110.270852252868 | -3.34085225286846 |
63 | 103.74 | 106.938472190825 | -3.1984721908248 |
64 | 101.64 | 103.415145228692 | -1.77514522869218 |
65 | 102.17 | 101.630251062684 | 0.539748937315977 |
66 | 101.13 | 101.985112178775 | -0.855112178775286 |
67 | 100.64 | 102.182017466236 | -1.54201746623608 |
68 | 100.43 | 99.9715252613663 | 0.458474738633683 |
69 | 99.77 | 99.9309182531522 | -0.160918253152218 |
70 | 99.79 | 99.4237831799941 | 0.366216820005945 |
71 | 99.47 | 99.4740298999615 | -0.00402989996148051 |
72 | 99.63 | 99.922653388483 | -0.292653388482961 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 99.8301327271213 | 97.3116184402726 | 102.34864701397 |
74 | 99.1331821209092 | 95.5151262339472 | 102.751238007871 |
75 | 98.9387315146971 | 94.4382043376282 | 103.439258691766 |
76 | 98.5113642418184 | 93.2341807192082 | 103.788547764429 |
77 | 98.454830302273 | 92.4644551981851 | 104.445205406361 |
78 | 98.2062130293942 | 91.5447544017499 | 104.867671657039 |
79 | 99.2213457565155 | 91.9184367663315 | 106.5242547467 |
80 | 98.5643951503034 | 90.6416783051716 | 106.487111995435 |
81 | 98.0624445440914 | 89.5361076505203 | 106.588781437662 |
82 | 97.718410604546 | 88.6007399661814 | 106.836081242911 |
83 | 97.3931266650006 | 87.6935165874569 | 107.092736742544 |
84 | 97.8365927254552 | 87.5622325755516 | 108.110952875359 |