Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 0.363567034461946 |
gamma | 0.0331063466428148 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 23.74 | 23.3455128205128 | 0.394487179487182 |
14 | 23.87 | 24.0209050514619 | -0.15090505146193 |
15 | 24.13 | 24.2331242827499 | -0.103124282749924 |
16 | 24.23 | 24.2964650264229 | -0.0664650264228541 |
17 | 24.27 | 24.3081338672042 | -0.0381338672041913 |
18 | 24.41 | 24.4271863168589 | -0.0171863168588686 |
19 | 24.39 | 24.4296879386052 | -0.0396879386051658 |
20 | 24.34 | 24.4348420457959 | -0.0948420457959074 |
21 | 24.31 | 24.3311939377969 | -0.021193937796923 |
22 | 24.34 | 24.2264051873502 | 0.113594812649808 |
23 | 24.41 | 24.3364545165155 | 0.0735454834844518 |
24 | 24.39 | 24.2773598965107 | 0.11264010348928 |
25 | 24.54 | 24.4770621248978 | 0.0629378751021861 |
26 | 24.9 | 24.7595275948374 | 0.140472405162619 |
27 | 25.63 | 25.3076820639394 | 0.322317936060575 |
28 | 26.7 | 25.9956995734402 | 0.704300426559801 |
29 | 27.12 | 27.2575933242282 | -0.137593324228156 |
30 | 27.68 | 27.7204855940434 | -0.0404855940434388 |
31 | 27.84 | 28.1345163666786 | -0.294516366678632 |
32 | 27.84 | 28.2270232579781 | -0.387023257978104 |
33 | 27.77 | 28.0671476931405 | -0.297147693140541 |
34 | 27.8 | 27.8220312542149 | -0.0220312542148946 |
35 | 27.82 | 27.8827714164545 | -0.0627714164545132 |
36 | 27.72 | 27.7241164653918 | -0.00411646539183153 |
37 | 27.87 | 27.8013698542769 | 0.0686301457231373 |
38 | 27.83 | 28.0859048461654 | -0.25590484616545 |
39 | 28.07 | 28.089949613474 | -0.0199496134739654 |
40 | 28.05 | 28.1635299249979 | -0.113529924997913 |
41 | 28.15 | 28.0380875201771 | 0.111912479822934 |
42 | 28.3 | 28.2716918752522 | 0.0283081247477597 |
43 | 28.41 | 28.300733776218 | 0.109266223782036 |
44 | 28.43 | 28.4900427064986 | -0.0600427064985816 |
45 | 28.43 | 28.4690464910892 | -0.0390464910891595 |
46 | 28.29 | 28.3877671407844 | -0.0977671407843985 |
47 | 28.19 | 28.2509722313416 | -0.0609722313415944 |
48 | 27.53 | 27.9729714046749 | -0.442971404674864 |
49 | 27.92 | 27.3306716047258 | 0.589328395274212 |
50 | 27.98 | 28.0445153150532 | -0.0645153150531819 |
51 | 27.92 | 28.2181430066153 | -0.298143006615252 |
52 | 27.89 | 27.8905813711879 | -0.000581371187912794 |
53 | 27.95 | 27.7962033371225 | 0.153796662877468 |
54 | 28.02 | 28.0050354004217 | 0.0149645995782954 |
55 | 27.97 | 27.9492260355123 | 0.0207739644877023 |
56 | 27.81 | 27.9463620975084 | -0.136362097508439 |
57 | 27.78 | 27.7176186674376 | 0.0623813325623814 |
58 | 27.56 | 27.6432151301898 | -0.0832151301897817 |
59 | 27.52 | 27.4317108520843 | 0.0882891479156811 |
60 | 27.18 | 27.2679765424339 | -0.0879765424338537 |
61 | 27.18 | 27.074741171799 | 0.105258828201027 |
62 | 27.26 | 27.2225931451523 | 0.0374068548477133 |
63 | 27.38 | 27.4532763777712 | -0.0732763777711547 |
64 | 27.31 | 27.3874688357421 | -0.0774688357421169 |
65 | 27.43 | 27.2251370542015 | 0.204862945798535 |
66 | 27.4 | 27.5125351345432 | -0.112535134543251 |
67 | 27.32 | 27.3103710694046 | 0.00962893059541869 |
68 | 27.31 | 27.2734551644795 | 0.0365448355204698 |
69 | 27.34 | 27.2575749952879 | 0.0824250047120572 |
70 | 27.3 | 27.2504586764833 | 0.049541323516717 |
71 | 27.3 | 27.2672202685576 | 0.0327797314424174 |
72 | 26.94 | 27.1233045649752 | -0.18330456497522 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 26.8754110678839 | 26.499838761006 | 27.2509833747617 |
74 | 26.920405469101 | 26.285331126415 | 27.5554798117871 |
75 | 27.1024832036515 | 26.1946924508435 | 28.0102739564596 |
76 | 27.1253942715354 | 25.9251285051816 | 28.3256600378892 |
77 | 27.0841386727526 | 25.5707747180215 | 28.5975026274836 |
78 | 27.1357997406364 | 25.2891077897607 | 28.9824916915121 |
79 | 27.0562108085203 | 24.856681432158 | 29.2557401848825 |
80 | 27.0162052097374 | 24.4451091653658 | 29.5873012541091 |
81 | 26.957032944288 | 23.9963950402395 | 29.9176708483365 |
82 | 26.8307773455051 | 23.4633236000551 | 30.1982310909552 |
83 | 26.7432717467223 | 22.9523710466637 | 30.5341724467809 |
84 | 26.4999328146062 | 22.2695408197059 | 30.7303248095064 |