Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 0.199739945378135 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 35.1 | 35.48 | -0.380000000000003 |
4 | 35.87 | 35.9140988207563 | -0.0440988207563109 |
5 | 37.15 | 36.6752905247072 | 0.474709475292798 |
6 | 37.61 | 38.0501089693727 | -0.440108969372666 |
7 | 37.97 | 38.4222016278697 | -0.452201627869748 |
8 | 38.94 | 38.6918788994191 | 0.24812110058086 |
9 | 39.18 | 39.7114385944963 | -0.531438594496322 |
10 | 39.49 | 39.8452890786598 | -0.355289078659794 |
11 | 39.86 | 40.0843236574948 | -0.224323657494843 |
12 | 40.02 | 40.4095172623998 | -0.389517262399792 |
13 | 40.2 | 40.4917151056842 | -0.291715105684219 |
14 | 40.85 | 40.6134479464089 | 0.236552053591119 |
15 | 41.45 | 41.3106968406723 | 0.139303159327746 |
16 | 41.7 | 41.9385212461074 | -0.238521246107382 |
17 | 41.92 | 42.1408790254384 | -0.220879025438371 |
18 | 41.97 | 42.3167606609621 | -0.346760660962133 |
19 | 42.31 | 42.2974987054823 | 0.0125012945177332 |
20 | 42.61 | 42.6399957133664 | -0.0299957133664037 |
21 | 42.82 | 42.934004371217 | -0.114004371217014 |
22 | 43.07 | 43.1212331443373 | -0.0512331443372602 |
23 | 43.51 | 43.3609998388858 | 0.149000161114209 |
24 | 43.57 | 43.8307611229281 | -0.260761122928066 |
25 | 43.86 | 43.8386767104777 | 0.0213232895223214 |
26 | 44.49 | 44.1329358231621 | 0.357064176837852 |
27 | 45.99 | 44.8342558023402 | 1.15574419765977 |
28 | 48.22 | 46.5651040852519 | 1.65489591474811 |
29 | 49.46 | 49.1256529048702 | 0.334347095129829 |
30 | 50.39 | 50.4324353753887 | -0.0424353753887416 |
31 | 50.4 | 51.3539593358265 | -0.953959335826497 |
32 | 50.59 | 51.1734155501955 | -0.583415550195546 |
33 | 51.32 | 51.2468841600667 | 0.0731158399332585 |
34 | 51.86 | 51.9914883139413 | -0.131488313941283 |
35 | 52.47 | 52.5052248452968 | -0.0352248452967885 |
36 | 52.73 | 53.1081890366213 | -0.378189036621258 |
37 | 52.73 | 53.2926495791039 | -0.562649579103912 |
38 | 53.59 | 53.1802659829067 | 0.409734017093335 |
39 | 54.11 | 54.1221062331005 | -0.0121062331004609 |
40 | 54.8 | 54.6396881347622 | 0.160311865237766 |
41 | 55.72 | 55.3617088179683 | 0.358291182031707 |
42 | 56.06 | 56.3532738790968 | -0.293273879096773 |
43 | 56.66 | 56.6346953705052 | 0.0253046294948405 |
44 | 57.05 | 57.2397497158183 | -0.189749715818266 |
45 | 57.31 | 57.5918491179452 | -0.2818491179452 |
46 | 57.89 | 57.795552590522 | 0.0944474094780432 |
47 | 58.32 | 58.3944175109322 | -0.0744175109322072 |
48 | 58.72 | 58.8095533613634 | -0.0895533613634356 |
49 | 59.02 | 59.1916659778563 | -0.171665977856264 |
50 | 59.54 | 59.457377424816 | 0.0826225751840184 |
51 | 61.49 | 59.9938804534702 | 1.49611954652977 |
52 | 62.26 | 62.2427152899732 | 0.0172847100267504 |
53 | 63.49 | 63.0161677370099 | 0.473832262990136 |
54 | 64.36 | 64.3408109673379 | 0.0191890326620836 |
55 | 65.93 | 65.2146437836737 | 0.715356216326313 |
56 | 66.82 | 66.9275289952486 | -0.107528995248643 |
57 | 68.85 | 67.7960511596111 | 1.0539488403889 |
58 | 71.27 | 70.0365668434217 | 1.23343315657827 |
59 | 72.27 | 72.7029327147443 | -0.432932714744254 |
60 | 73.4 | 73.6164587579488 | -0.216458757948814 |
61 | 73.58 | 74.7032232974595 | -1.12322329745952 |
62 | 74.84 | 74.6588707373775 | 0.181129262622505 |
63 | 75.74 | 75.9550494864001 | -0.215049486400105 |
64 | 77.81 | 76.8120955137329 | 0.997904486267061 |
65 | 78.74 | 79.0814169013125 | -0.341416901312527 |
66 | 79.06 | 79.9432223080932 | -0.883222308093181 |
67 | 79.48 | 80.0868075325179 | -0.606807532517905 |
68 | 81.19 | 80.3856038291177 | 0.804396170882256 |
69 | 85.11 | 82.2562738763521 | 2.85372612364786 |
70 | 86.64 | 86.7462769764137 | -0.106276976413724 |
71 | 88.48 | 88.2550492189499 | 0.224950781050111 |
72 | 89.2 | 90.1399808756696 | -0.939980875669605 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 90.6722291469069 | 89.4317911576038 | 91.9126671362099 |
74 | 92.1444582938137 | 90.2070800160943 | 94.0818365715332 |
75 | 93.6166874407206 | 91.0153378749083 | 96.2180370065329 |
76 | 95.0889165876275 | 91.8174923825514 | 98.3603407927035 |
77 | 96.5611457345343 | 92.6011204952803 | 100.521170973788 |
78 | 98.0333748814412 | 93.3612720071456 | 102.705477755737 |
79 | 99.5056040283481 | 94.095869519751 | 104.915338536945 |
80 | 100.977833175255 | 94.8041291445634 | 107.151537205946 |
81 | 102.450062322162 | 95.4859039171751 | 109.414220727149 |
82 | 103.922291469069 | 96.141376037479 | 111.703206900658 |
83 | 105.394520615976 | 96.770900468003 | 114.018140763948 |
84 | 106.866749762882 | 97.3749208661319 | 116.358578659633 |