| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 1 |
| beta | 0.193961188765786 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 2149 | 2026 | 123 |
| 4 | 2124 | 2161.85722621819 | -37.8572262181915 |
| 5 | 2205 | 2129.51439361754 | 75.4856063824641 |
| 6 | 2489 | 2225.15567156618 | 263.844328433815 |
| 7 | 2573 | 2560.33123115832 | 12.6687688416819 |
| 8 | 2702 | 2646.78848062305 | 55.21151937695 |
| 9 | 2718 | 2786.49737255497 | -68.4973725549685 |
| 10 | 2646 | 2789.21154074687 | -143.211540746874 |
| 11 | 2712 | 2689.43406005863 | 22.5659399413698 |
| 12 | 2634 | 2759.81097659528 | -125.810976595276 |
| 13 | 2614 | 2657.40853001507 | -43.4085300150714 |
| 14 | 2637 | 2628.98895993077 | 8.01104006922696 |
| 15 | 2649 | 2653.54279078585 | -4.54279078585068 |
| 16 | 2579 | 2664.66166568471 | -85.6616656847127 |
| 17 | 2505 | 2578.04662717685 | -73.0466271768482 |
| 18 | 2462 | 2489.8784165343 | -27.8784165342959 |
| 19 | 2467 | 2441.4710857224 | 25.5289142776041 |
| 20 | 2447 | 2451.42270428358 | -4.42270428358006 |
| 21 | 2656 | 2430.56487130318 | 225.435128696823 |
| 22 | 2626 | 2683.29053685478 | -57.2905368547808 |
| 23 | 2483 | 2642.1783962214 | -159.178396221398 |
| 24 | 2540 | 2468.30396526446 | 71.6960347355362 |
| 25 | 2503 | 2539.21021339156 | -36.2102133915614 |
| 26 | 2467 | 2495.18683735667 | -28.1868373566717 |
| 27 | 2513 | 2453.71968487542 | 59.2803151245762 |
| 28 | 2443 | 2511.2177652674 | -68.2177652673968 |
| 29 | 2293 | 2427.98616642119 | -134.986166421187 |
| 30 | 2071 | 2251.8040891152 | -180.804089115198 |
| 31 | 2030 | 1994.7351130567 | 35.2648869433015 |
| 32 | 2052 | 1960.57513244991 | 91.4248675500876 |
| 33 | 1864 | 2000.30800844268 | -136.308008442682 |
| 34 | 1670 | 1785.86954508684 | -115.869545086842 |
| 35 | 1811 | 1569.39535038005 | 241.604649619952 |
| 36 | 1905 | 1757.25727543167 | 147.742724568325 |
| 37 | 1863 | 1879.91362992044 | -16.9136299204433 |
| 38 | 2014 | 1834.63304215473 | 179.36695784527 |
| 39 | 2198 | 2020.4232705237 | 177.576729476299 |
| 40 | 2962 | 2238.86626407006 | 723.133735929935 |
| 41 | 3047 | 3143.12614312768 | -96.1261431276789 |
| 42 | 3033 | 3209.48140213516 | -176.481402135164 |
| 43 | 3504 | 3161.25085958197 | 342.749140418025 |
| 44 | 3801 | 3698.73089030591 | 102.269109694093 |
| 45 | 3858 | 4015.56712839619 | -157.567128396191 |
| 46 | 3674 | 4042.00522086206 | -368.005220862055 |
| 47 | 3721 | 3786.62649075164 | -65.6264907516352 |
| 48 | 3844 | 3820.89749859092 | 23.1025014090792 |
| 49 | 4117 | 3948.37848722769 | 168.621512772311 |
| 50 | 4105 | 4254.08451629649 | -149.084516296492 |
| 51 | 4435 | 4213.16790628905 | 221.832093710948 |
| 52 | 4296 | 4586.19472289163 | -290.194722891631 |
| 53 | 4203 | 4390.90820946601 | -187.908209466013 |
| 54 | 4563 | 4261.46130977913 | 301.538690220866 |
| 55 | 4621 | 4679.94811259325 | -58.9481125932516 |
| 56 | 4697 | 4726.51446659916 | -29.5144665991647 |
| 57 | 4591 | 4796.7898055718 | -205.789805571802 |
| 58 | 4357 | 4650.87457024722 | -293.874570247216 |
| 59 | 4503 | 4359.87430925403 | 143.125690745968 |
| 60 | 4444 | 4533.63513837404 | -89.6351383740439 |
| 61 | 4291 | 4457.24940037983 | -166.249400379828 |
| 62 | 4200 | 4272.00346905056 | -72.0034690505581 |
| 63 | 4139 | 4167.03759059825 | -28.037590598251 |
| 64 | 3970 | 4100.59938619569 | -130.599386195686 |
| 65 | 3862 | 3906.26817399709 | -44.2681739970885 |
| 66 | 3702 | 3789.68186634412 | -87.6818663441227 |
| 67 | 3570 | 3612.67498731481 | -42.6749873148137 |
| 68 | 3801 | 3472.39769604467 | 328.602303955332 |
| 69 | 3896 | 3767.13378955102 | 128.86621044898 |
| 70 | 3918 | 3887.12883292145 | 30.8711670785538 |
| 71 | 3813 | 3915.11664118659 | -102.11664118659 |
| 72 | 3667 | 3790.30997606927 | -123.309976069269 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 73 | 3620.39262652419 | 3284.5989965974 | 3956.18625645098 |
| 74 | 3573.78525304839 | 3050.81501874494 | 4096.75548735183 |
| 75 | 3527.17787957258 | 2826.67406893576 | 4227.6816902094 |
| 76 | 3480.57050609677 | 2601.44332152103 | 4359.69769067251 |
| 77 | 3433.96313262097 | 2371.6736257961 | 4496.25263944584 |
| 78 | 3387.35575914516 | 2135.96739649354 | 4638.74412179679 |
| 79 | 3340.74838566935 | 1893.72032900221 | 4787.7764423365 |
| 80 | 3294.14101219355 | 1644.68802388837 | 4943.59400049872 |
| 81 | 3247.53363871774 | 1388.80509419232 | 5106.26218324317 |
| 82 | 3200.92626524193 | 1126.09995971445 | 5275.75257076942 |
| 83 | 3154.31889176613 | 856.651286396 | 5451.98649713625 |
| 84 | 3107.71151829032 | 580.56439975493 | 5634.85863682571 |
