Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast | ||||||||
time | Y[t] | F[t] | 95% LB | 95% UB | p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-1]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-s]) | P(F[t]>Y[65]) |
53 | 196 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
54 | 186 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
55 | 247 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
56 | 343 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
57 | 464 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
58 | 680 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
59 | 711 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
60 | 610 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
61 | 513 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
62 | 292 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
63 | 273 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
64 | 322 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
65 | 189 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
66 | 257 | 256.3471 | 158.9137 | 413.5189 | 0.4968 | 0.7995 | 0.8098 | 0.7995 |
67 | 324 | 324.5547 | 186.7152 | 564.1517 | 0.4982 | 0.7097 | 0.7371 | 0.8663 |
68 | 404 | 465.8932 | 241.994 | 896.9499 | 0.3892 | 0.7406 | 0.7118 | 0.896 |
69 | 677 | 598.9485 | 295.1184 | 1215.5774 | 0.402 | 0.7323 | 0.666 | 0.9037 |
70 | 858 | 770.6326 | 357.7684 | 1659.9416 | 0.4237 | 0.5817 | 0.5792 | 0.9001 |
71 | 895 | 666.7536 | 298.0424 | 1491.601 | 0.2938 | 0.3248 | 0.4581 | 0.8719 |
72 | 664 | 577.3518 | 248.1543 | 1343.2573 | 0.4123 | 0.2081 | 0.4667 | 0.8398 |
73 | 628 | 525.4405 | 219.6475 | 1256.9584 | 0.3917 | 0.3552 | 0.5133 | 0.8163 |
74 | 308 | 344.5086 | 140.1213 | 847.0243 | 0.4434 | 0.1344 | 0.5811 | 0.7279 |
75 | 324 | 268.3243 | 106.8655 | 673.7247 | 0.3939 | 0.4239 | 0.491 | 0.6493 |
76 | 248 | 250.1335 | 97.6701 | 640.5925 | 0.4957 | 0.3554 | 0.3591 | 0.6205 |
77 | 272 | 188.1494 | 72.3096 | 489.5639 | 0.2928 | 0.3486 | 0.4978 | 0.4978 |
Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance | ||||||
time | % S.E. | PE | MAPE | Sq.E | MSE | RMSE |
66 | 0.3128 | 0.0025 | 0 | 0.4263 | 0 | 0 |
67 | 0.3766 | -0.0017 | 0.0021 | 0.3076 | 0.367 | 0.6058 |
68 | 0.4721 | -0.1328 | 0.0457 | 3830.7657 | 1277.1666 | 35.7375 |
69 | 0.5253 | 0.1303 | 0.0669 | 6092.0406 | 2480.8851 | 49.8085 |
70 | 0.5888 | 0.1134 | 0.0762 | 7633.0565 | 3511.3193 | 59.2564 |
71 | 0.6312 | 0.3423 | 0.1205 | 52096.4131 | 11608.835 | 107.7443 |
72 | 0.6768 | 0.1501 | 0.1247 | 7507.9149 | 11022.9892 | 104.9904 |
73 | 0.7103 | 0.1952 | 0.1335 | 10518.4464 | 10959.9214 | 104.6896 |
74 | 0.7442 | -0.106 | 0.1305 | 1332.8783 | 9890.2499 | 99.4497 |
75 | 0.7708 | 0.2075 | 0.1382 | 3099.7816 | 9211.2031 | 95.975 |
76 | 0.7964 | -0.0085 | 0.1264 | 4.5518 | 8374.2348 | 91.5108 |
77 | 0.8173 | 0.4457 | 0.153 | 7030.9274 | 8262.2925 | 90.8972 |