Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 1 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.0999999999999999 |
4 | 1.79 | 1.78 | 0.01 |
5 | 1.79 | 1.78 | 0.01 |
6 | 1.78 | 1.79 | -0.01 |
7 | 1.81 | 1.77 | 0.04 |
8 | 1.84 | 1.84 | 0 |
9 | 1.87 | 1.87 | 0 |
10 | 1.87 | 1.9 | -0.03 |
11 | 1.87 | 1.87 | 0 |
12 | 1.84 | 1.87 | -0.03 |
13 | 1.82 | 1.81 | 0.01 |
14 | 1.83 | 1.8 | 0.03 |
15 | 1.83 | 1.84 | -0.01 |
16 | 1.82 | 1.83 | -0.01 |
17 | 1.83 | 1.81 | 0.02 |
18 | 1.87 | 1.84 | 0.03 |
19 | 1.88 | 1.91 | -0.0300000000000002 |
20 | 1.9 | 1.89 | 0.0100000000000002 |
21 | 1.98 | 1.92 | 0.0600000000000001 |
22 | 2.03 | 2.06 | -0.0300000000000002 |
23 | 2.14 | 2.08 | 0.0600000000000005 |
24 | 2.42 | 2.25 | 0.169999999999999 |
25 | 2.73 | 2.7 | 0.0300000000000002 |
26 | 2.84 | 3.04 | -0.2 |
27 | 2.85 | 2.95 | -0.0999999999999996 |
28 | 2.94 | 2.86 | 0.0799999999999996 |
29 | 3.06 | 3.03 | 0.0300000000000002 |
30 | 3.24 | 3.18 | 0.0600000000000001 |
31 | 3.18 | 3.42 | -0.24 |
32 | 3.01 | 3.12 | -0.11 |
33 | 2.87 | 2.84 | 0.0300000000000007 |
34 | 2.73 | 2.73 | -4.44089209850063e-16 |
35 | 2.63 | 2.59 | 0.04 |
36 | 2.39 | 2.53 | -0.14 |
37 | 2.26 | 2.15 | 0.109999999999999 |
38 | 2.11 | 2.13 | -0.0199999999999996 |
39 | 2.01 | 1.96 | 0.0499999999999998 |
40 | 1.99 | 1.91 | 0.0800000000000003 |
41 | 1.96 | 1.97 | -0.0100000000000002 |
42 | 1.93 | 1.93 | 0 |
43 | 1.98 | 1.9 | 0.0800000000000001 |
44 | 2.07 | 2.03 | 0.0399999999999996 |
45 | 2.24 | 2.16 | 0.0800000000000005 |
46 | 2.31 | 2.41 | -0.100000000000001 |
47 | 2.23 | 2.38 | -0.15 |
48 | 2.26 | 2.15 | 0.11 |
49 | 2.28 | 2.29 | -0.00999999999999979 |
50 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 0 |
51 | 2.33 | 2.32 | 0.0100000000000002 |
52 | 2.26 | 2.36 | -0.100000000000001 |
53 | 2.24 | 2.19 | 0.0500000000000007 |
54 | 2.47 | 2.22 | 0.25 |
55 | 2.55 | 2.7 | -0.15 |
56 | 2.89 | 2.63 | 0.260000000000001 |
57 | 3.21 | 3.23 | -0.0200000000000005 |
58 | 3.21 | 3.53 | -0.32 |
59 | 2.92 | 3.21 | -0.29 |
60 | 2.68 | 2.63 | 0.0500000000000003 |
61 | 2.4 | 2.44 | -0.0400000000000005 |
62 | 2.28 | 2.12 | 0.16 |
63 | 2.24 | 2.16 | 0.0800000000000005 |
64 | 2.2 | 2.2 | -4.44089209850063e-16 |
65 | 2.18 | 2.16 | 0.02 |
66 | 2.23 | 2.16 | 0.0699999999999998 |
67 | 2.24 | 2.28 | -0.0399999999999996 |
68 | 2.25 | 2.25 | -4.44089209850063e-16 |
69 | 2.23 | 2.26 | -0.0299999999999998 |
70 | 2.25 | 2.21 | 0.04 |
71 | 2.23 | 2.27 | -0.04 |
72 | 2.21 | 2.21 | 0 |
73 | 2.17 | 2.19 | -0.02 |
74 | 2.17 | 2.13 | 0.04 |
75 | 2.13 | 2.17 | -0.04 |
76 | 2.12 | 2.09 | 0.0300000000000002 |
77 | 2.13 | 2.11 | 0.0199999999999996 |
78 | 2.17 | 2.14 | 0.0300000000000002 |
79 | 2.33 | 2.21 | 0.12 |
80 | 2.5 | 2.49 | 0.00999999999999979 |
81 | 2.57 | 2.67 | -0.1 |
82 | 2.59 | 2.64 | -0.0499999999999998 |
83 | 2.58 | 2.61 | -0.0299999999999998 |
84 | 2.31 | 2.57 | -0.26 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
85 | 2.04 | 1.84660688009918 | 2.23339311990082 |
86 | 1.77 | 1.337559837521 | 2.202440162479 |
87 | 1.5 | 0.776389204371834 | 2.22361079562817 |
88 | 1.23 | 0.17074225764019 | 2.28925774235981 |
89 | 0.96 | -0.47424176322318 | 2.39424176322318 |
90 | 0.69 | -1.15485278357721 | 2.53485278357721 |
91 | 0.42 | -1.86825825367162 | 2.70825825367162 |
92 | 0.15 | -2.61220624868864 | 2.91220624868864 |
93 | -0.12 | -3.38485162987806 | 3.14485162987806 |
94 | -0.39 | -4.18464702543132 | 3.40464702543132 |
95 | -0.66 | -5.0102706588713 | 3.6902706588713 |
96 | -0.93 | -5.86057646084438 | 4.00057646084438 |