| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.818907146662061 |
| beta | 0.059781083692388 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 117 | 124.89373511357 | -7.8937351135703 |
| 14 | 111 | 112.212706699933 | -1.21270669993295 |
| 15 | 105 | 105.186931229607 | -0.186931229607083 |
| 16 | 102 | 101.963136080596 | 0.0368639194041265 |
| 17 | 95 | 94.6468585944631 | 0.353141405536945 |
| 18 | 93 | 92.3315585432044 | 0.668441456795648 |
| 19 | 124 | 124.460464104576 | -0.460464104575792 |
| 20 | 130 | 127.874982617422 | 2.12501738257809 |
| 21 | 124 | 127.649869308913 | -3.64986930891277 |
| 22 | 115 | 110.921009829616 | 4.0789901703839 |
| 23 | 106 | 104.123025081357 | 1.87697491864319 |
| 24 | 105 | 99.258386659375 | 5.74161334062504 |
| 25 | 105 | 103.679867856194 | 1.32013214380561 |
| 26 | 101 | 100.604819216023 | 0.395180783977295 |
| 27 | 95 | 96.0222531678387 | -1.02225316783874 |
| 28 | 93 | 92.797401595651 | 0.202598404348961 |
| 29 | 84 | 86.6746941070883 | -2.6746941070883 |
| 30 | 87 | 82.3894525882321 | 4.61054741176794 |
| 31 | 116 | 115.814487092012 | 0.185512907987729 |
| 32 | 120 | 120.605400824058 | -0.605400824058236 |
| 33 | 117 | 117.818066116579 | -0.818066116579075 |
| 34 | 109 | 106.090550586831 | 2.9094494131686 |
| 35 | 105 | 99.0567810408446 | 5.9432189591554 |
| 36 | 107 | 99.0500254849578 | 7.94997451504217 |
| 37 | 109 | 105.379546349803 | 3.62045365019704 |
| 38 | 109 | 104.905836418193 | 4.09416358180739 |
| 39 | 108 | 103.92502750002 | 4.07497249998045 |
| 40 | 107 | 106.325194200846 | 0.674805799153631 |
| 41 | 99 | 100.496523459823 | -1.49652345982302 |
| 42 | 103 | 99.8952197704 | 3.10478022960002 |
| 43 | 131 | 138.375031600907 | -7.37503160090696 |
| 44 | 137 | 139.091588092792 | -2.09158809279208 |
| 45 | 135 | 136.263788430721 | -1.26378843072092 |
| 46 | 124 | 124.649464725069 | -0.649464725068782 |
| 47 | 118 | 115.0926197213 | 2.9073802787004 |
| 48 | 121 | 113.214704753943 | 7.78529524605675 |
| 49 | 121 | 119.313387973941 | 1.68661202605894 |
| 50 | 118 | 117.638822929337 | 0.361177070663217 |
| 51 | 113 | 113.673705258106 | -0.673705258106438 |
| 52 | 107 | 111.703482878895 | -4.70348287889504 |
| 53 | 100 | 100.974206229768 | -0.974206229768313 |
| 54 | 102 | 101.616580903018 | 0.383419096982308 |
| 55 | 130 | 135.356524517523 | -5.35652451752293 |
| 56 | 136 | 138.56180487774 | -2.56180487774003 |
| 57 | 133 | 135.363440608322 | -2.36344060832218 |
| 58 | 120 | 122.903003425041 | -2.90300342504104 |
| 59 | 112 | 112.096480625939 | -0.0964806259386108 |
| 60 | 109 | 108.336532310504 | 0.66346768949613 |
| 61 | 110 | 106.922535478369 | 3.07746452163069 |
| 62 | 106 | 105.843950594189 | 0.156049405810577 |
| 63 | 102 | 101.378805954569 | 0.621194045431395 |
| 64 | 98 | 99.3963153462099 | -1.39631534620993 |
| 65 | 92 | 92.188074684128 | -0.188074684128011 |
| 66 | 92 | 93.2462560465526 | -1.24625604655257 |
| 67 | 120 | 120.932102787842 | -0.932102787841515 |
| 68 | 127 | 127.270142757204 | -0.270142757204326 |
| 69 | 124 | 125.77750774067 | -1.77750774066951 |
| 70 | 114 | 114.15179164018 | -0.151791640180349 |
| 71 | 108 | 106.408282208982 | 1.59171779101763 |
| 72 | 106 | 104.298837585133 | 1.70116241486741 |
| 73 | 111 | 104.255510524107 | 6.74448947589272 |
| 74 | 110 | 105.89117103654 | 4.10882896345954 |
| 75 | 104 | 105.02396905113 | -1.02396905113011 |
| 76 | 100 | 101.588464553784 | -1.58846455378438 |
| 77 | 96 | 94.603244042101 | 1.39675595789896 |
| 78 | 98 | 97.1921667919751 | 0.807833208024874 |
| 79 | 122 | 129.098994836771 | -7.09899483677066 |
| 80 | 134 | 131.063184747134 | 2.93681525286635 |
| 81 | 133 | 132.364886329104 | 0.635113670896061 |
| 82 | 125 | 122.910369371158 | 2.08963062884197 |
| 83 | 118 | 117.321216594031 | 0.678783405968659 |
| 84 | 116 | 114.786260584617 | 1.21373941538265 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 85 | 115.725947845115 | 109.634712431382 | 121.817183258848 |
| 86 | 111.361831809256 | 103.431596666761 | 119.292066951751 |
| 87 | 106.13969885876 | 96.7350638794539 | 115.544333838066 |
| 88 | 103.434006607024 | 92.5890022298449 | 114.279010984203 |
| 89 | 98.2348928155088 | 86.2963189902723 | 110.173466640745 |
| 90 | 99.6590355006081 | 86.0411498165643 | 113.276921184652 |
| 91 | 129.936350028402 | 110.911704311083 | 148.960995745721 |
| 92 | 140.552688792264 | 118.486383069698 | 162.618994514831 |
| 93 | 139.208440936051 | 115.814477701217 | 162.602404170885 |
| 94 | 129.240572264055 | 105.984929324738 | 152.496215203372 |
| 95 | 121.518185246827 | 98.1472637248048 | 144.889106768848 |
| 96 | 118.488161961332 | 80.8457422121104 | 156.130581710554 |
