| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.653714754765269 |
| beta | 0.0529159338487423 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 44 | 53.1428952991453 | -9.14289529914529 |
| 14 | 38 | 41.0687479081001 | -3.06874790810005 |
| 15 | 33 | 33.817539719777 | -0.817539719776953 |
| 16 | 33 | 32.6763659327992 | 0.32363406720075 |
| 17 | 52 | 51.0423894140567 | 0.95761058594335 |
| 18 | 54 | 52.5226449616719 | 1.47735503832813 |
| 19 | 39 | 38.060436350409 | 0.939563649590994 |
| 20 | 22 | 28.0708335569242 | -6.07083355692425 |
| 21 | 31 | 24.6634288432502 | 6.33657115674977 |
| 22 | 31 | 28.6694551976871 | 2.33054480231291 |
| 23 | 38 | 31.0956343846006 | 6.90436561539942 |
| 24 | 42 | 37.6672896987577 | 4.33271030124232 |
| 25 | 41 | 31.4166430462955 | 9.58335695370454 |
| 26 | 31 | 34.4910323904589 | -3.49103239045893 |
| 27 | 36 | 28.5322448681734 | 7.46775513182665 |
| 28 | 34 | 34.2779806135975 | -0.277980613597549 |
| 29 | 51 | 53.5249638002971 | -2.52496380029712 |
| 30 | 47 | 53.8428273489477 | -6.84282734894771 |
| 31 | 31 | 34.4017908131552 | -3.40179081315522 |
| 32 | 19 | 19.6428349077239 | -0.642834907723906 |
| 33 | 30 | 24.7643105872515 | 5.2356894127485 |
| 34 | 33 | 27.3093812665774 | 5.69061873342261 |
| 35 | 36 | 34.2781032352319 | 1.72189676476812 |
| 36 | 40 | 37.1542705357458 | 2.84572946425422 |
| 37 | 32 | 32.2812411328822 | -0.281241132882208 |
| 38 | 25 | 24.5697506826542 | 0.430249317345787 |
| 39 | 28 | 25.2950956294406 | 2.70490437055941 |
| 40 | 29 | 25.4061617053028 | 3.59383829469715 |
| 41 | 55 | 46.7011567421857 | 8.29884325781428 |
| 42 | 55 | 53.268950396094 | 1.73104960390599 |
| 43 | 40 | 41.5904110003066 | -1.59041100030659 |
| 44 | 38 | 29.9996727347931 | 8.00032726520686 |
| 45 | 44 | 44.1346471305058 | -0.134647130505776 |
| 46 | 41 | 44.4685044366422 | -3.46850443664219 |
| 47 | 49 | 44.9005504224356 | 4.0994495775644 |
| 48 | 59 | 50.6274577258302 | 8.37254227416979 |
| 49 | 61 | 49.3830786942515 | 11.6169213057485 |
| 50 | 47 | 51.2060666636474 | -4.2060666636474 |
| 51 | 43 | 51.0379792600276 | -8.03797926002758 |
| 52 | 39 | 45.4121877876618 | -6.41218778766178 |
| 53 | 66 | 62.4273413023291 | 3.57265869767086 |
| 54 | 68 | 64.0997120763727 | 3.90028792362732 |
| 55 | 63 | 53.2325848468537 | 9.76741515314632 |
| 56 | 68 | 53.3241672320869 | 14.6758327679131 |
| 57 | 67 | 70.1733260239206 | -3.17332602392058 |
| 58 | 59 | 68.4285043070838 | -9.42850430708381 |
| 59 | 68 | 68.4411291716198 | -0.441129171619849 |
| 60 | 78 | 73.3784826572144 | 4.62151734278557 |
| 61 | 82 | 71.3747092448948 | 10.6252907551052 |
| 62 | 70 | 67.6051093852031 | 2.39489061479694 |
| 63 | 62 | 71.1884931498462 | -9.18849314984618 |
| 64 | 68 | 66.0970456716106 | 1.90295432838937 |
| 65 | 94 | 93.016636376811 | 0.983363623189007 |
| 66 | 102 | 94.0313323051062 | 7.96866769489378 |
| 67 | 100 | 88.9177300284883 | 11.0822699715117 |
| 68 | 104 | 92.6763138447666 | 11.3236861552334 |
| 69 | 103 | 102.145016234775 | 0.854983765224773 |
| 70 | 93 | 101.998622743608 | -8.99862274360787 |
| 71 | 110 | 106.550471988844 | 3.44952801115613 |
| 72 | 114 | 117.064919655539 | -3.0649196555395 |
| 73 | 120 | 113.130132834092 | 6.86986716590788 |
| 74 | 102 | 104.940289415017 | -2.9402894150174 |
| 75 | 95 | 101.725076612865 | -6.72507661286534 |
| 76 | 103 | 102.870264031933 | 0.129735968067379 |
| 77 | 122 | 129.036354549063 | -7.03635454906347 |
| 78 | 139 | 127.674052119645 | 11.3259478803554 |
| 79 | 135 | 126.396184761254 | 8.60381523874585 |
| 80 | 135 | 129.095267284785 | 5.90473271521509 |
| 81 | 137 | 131.686012913658 | 5.31398708634174 |
| 82 | 130 | 131.486272887223 | -1.48627288722335 |
| 83 | 148 | 145.963429417618 | 2.03657058238207 |
| 84 | 148 | 153.953234341854 | -5.9532343418538 |
| 85 | 145 | 152.125556798822 | -7.12555679882206 |
| 86 | 128 | 131.460430191645 | -3.46043019164523 |
| 87 | 131 | 126.647429488914 | 4.3525705110862 |
| 88 | 133 | 137.844007656775 | -4.84400765677486 |
| 89 | 146 | 158.541174712995 | -12.5411747129948 |
| 90 | 163 | 160.012459729385 | 2.98754027061523 |
| 91 | 151 | 152.126151540363 | -1.12615154036325 |
| 92 | 157 | 146.978514090107 | 10.0214859098931 |
| 93 | 152 | 151.646837280596 | 0.353162719404452 |
| 94 | 149 | 145.268660755614 | 3.73133924438571 |
| 95 | 172 | 163.976400570911 | 8.02359942908924 |
| 96 | 167 | 172.920210430039 | -5.92021043003908 |
| 97 | 160 | 170.516252894814 | -10.5162528948141 |
| 98 | 150 | 148.594556534764 | 1.40544346523563 |
| 99 | 160 | 149.527095093707 | 10.4729049062932 |
| 100 | 165 | 161.610819985512 | 3.38918001448789 |
| 101 | 171 | 185.380362895979 | -14.3803628959793 |
| 102 | 179 | 191.318722250261 | -12.3187222502607 |
| 103 | 171 | 171.7645144356 | -0.764514435600347 |
| 104 | 176 | 170.488597391228 | 5.51140260877193 |
| 105 | 170 | 168.479652970857 | 1.52034702914304 |
| 106 | 169 | 163.693707946522 | 5.30629205347753 |
| 107 | 194 | 184.631257883452 | 9.36874211654847 |
| 108 | 196 | 189.386296686932 | 6.61370331306793 |
| 109 | 188 | 193.778398973083 | -5.77839897308286 |
| 110 | 174 | 179.440103835487 | -5.44010383548689 |
| 111 | 186 | 179.15862321794 | 6.84137678206042 |
| 112 | 191 | 186.410841616166 | 4.58915838383413 |
| 113 | 197 | 204.848473566342 | -7.84847356634182 |
| 114 | 206 | 216.033667724246 | -10.0336677242458 |
| 115 | 197 | 202.316256529747 | -5.31625652974654 |
| 116 | 204 | 200.422573536832 | 3.57742646316765 |
| 117 | 201 | 195.884934298977 | 5.1150657010225 |
| 118 | 190 | 195.00189264015 | -5.00189264015023 |
| 119 | 213 | 210.492982524097 | 2.50701747590279 |
| 120 | 213 | 209.456406982964 | 3.54359301703553 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 207.092155244136 | 194.836169652227 | 219.348140836045 |
| 122 | 196.390141896108 | 181.511526378323 | 211.268757413892 |
| 123 | 203.847727131246 | 186.530975858221 | 221.164478404271 |
| 124 | 205.540964359956 | 185.892588125734 | 225.189340594178 |
| 125 | 216.20611727832 | 194.290389530184 | 238.121845026456 |
| 126 | 231.571257682196 | 207.426886537898 | 255.715628826494 |
| 127 | 226.199640682574 | 199.848686708453 | 252.550594656696 |
| 128 | 231.197991442577 | 202.651100964915 | 259.744881920239 |
| 129 | 225.06741467123 | 194.32710431527 | 255.807725027191 |
| 130 | 217.373502862961 | 184.436328866199 | 250.310676859723 |
| 131 | 238.943930823287 | 203.801980289554 | 274.085881357019 |
| 132 | 236.750011493135 | 199.391961074477 | 274.108061911793 |
