Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.881401691360718 |
beta | 0.0275706998028344 |
gamma | 0 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 110.82 | 109.414974354848 | 1.40502564515249 |
14 | 110.75 | 110.611089874923 | 0.138910125077288 |
15 | 110.71 | 110.731222314566 | -0.0212223145656054 |
16 | 110.86 | 110.93504306376 | -0.0750430637604893 |
17 | 110.84 | 110.927359060936 | -0.0873590609363504 |
18 | 110.84 | 110.911622937775 | -0.0716229377748476 |
19 | 110.84 | 110.866484762678 | -0.026484762678237 |
20 | 110.92 | 110.74410257465 | 0.175897425349888 |
21 | 111.46 | 111.764208654783 | -0.304208654783096 |
22 | 112.46 | 113.078420500256 | -0.618420500256263 |
23 | 113.04 | 112.773352658488 | 0.266647341511586 |
24 | 113.15 | 113.123884567056 | 0.0261154329443798 |
25 | 113.15 | 113.160876718317 | -0.0108767183174336 |
26 | 113.21 | 113.087512261296 | 0.122487738704308 |
27 | 113.37 | 113.172234969858 | 0.197765030141667 |
28 | 113.47 | 113.558416368476 | -0.0884163684758192 |
29 | 113.71 | 113.524180775108 | 0.185819224892356 |
30 | 113.71 | 113.740836851976 | -0.0308368519762325 |
31 | 113.71 | 113.723148546556 | -0.0131485465563657 |
32 | 113.8 | 113.601354165432 | 0.198645834568012 |
33 | 115.46 | 114.655731538253 | 0.804268461747 |
34 | 117 | 117.018786202513 | -0.0187862025126009 |
35 | 117.94 | 117.282602130037 | 0.65739786996285 |
36 | 118.08 | 118.021743545591 | 0.0582564544085642 |
37 | 118.08 | 118.12744329084 | -0.0474432908395812 |
38 | 118.47 | 118.057838511302 | 0.412161488697663 |
39 | 118.49 | 118.441754292708 | 0.0482457072921534 |
40 | 118.45 | 118.747039468415 | -0.297039468414695 |
41 | 118.54 | 118.567401937069 | -0.0274019370691718 |
42 | 118.55 | 118.62984943606 | -0.0798494360596465 |
43 | 118.55 | 118.599632790064 | -0.0496327900644502 |
44 | 118.55 | 118.470290519862 | 0.0797094801382059 |
45 | 119.04 | 119.483193335694 | -0.443193335694431 |
46 | 121.37 | 120.798188988638 | 0.571811011361774 |
47 | 122 | 121.604002819596 | 0.395997180404052 |
48 | 122.14 | 122.123082401633 | 0.0169175983667884 |
49 | 122.14 | 122.198032626574 | -0.0580326265741604 |
50 | 122.03 | 122.121736812503 | -0.0917368125027167 |
51 | 121.91 | 122.054327142026 | -0.144327142025887 |
52 | 122.23 | 122.185438343409 | 0.0445616565913269 |
53 | 121.73 | 122.305187941655 | -0.575187941654519 |
54 | 121.83 | 121.870841580591 | -0.0408415805907367 |
55 | 121.83 | 121.860748582307 | -0.0307485823070408 |
56 | 122.49 | 121.730849978856 | 0.759150021143896 |
57 | 123.02 | 123.373502289999 | -0.353502289998758 |
58 | 125.98 | 124.826942533777 | 1.15305746622344 |
59 | 126.13 | 126.171346202153 | -0.0413462021531217 |
60 | 126.39 | 126.31573584562 | 0.074264154379577 |
61 | 126.39 | 126.449499709342 | -0.0594997093424894 |
62 | 126.57 | 126.37719824915 | 0.192801750849924 |
63 | 126.87 | 126.573558028234 | 0.296441971766043 |
64 | 127.26 | 127.12588120579 | 0.134118794210337 |
65 | 126.82 | 127.352035977604 | -0.532035977603826 |
66 | 126.7 | 126.984304140211 | -0.28430414021085 |
67 | 126.7 | 126.780732043927 | -0.0807320439273411 |
68 | 126.7 | 126.621540232947 | 0.0784597670534026 |
69 | 128.53 | 127.701461193373 | 0.828538806626881 |
70 | 130.37 | 130.303739726333 | 0.0662602736674955 |
71 | 130.39 | 130.706862896249 | -0.316862896249461 |
72 | 130.65 | 130.613357720184 | 0.036642279815851 |
73 | 130.65 | 130.714181034863 | -0.0641810348625995 |
74 | 130.65 | 130.634950775867 | 0.0150492241332358 |
75 | 130.85 | 130.66932403363 | 0.180675966370416 |
76 | 130.89 | 131.119866134047 | -0.229866134046944 |
77 | 130.85 | 131.011374696511 | -0.161374696511103 |
78 | 131.6 | 130.965151554455 | 0.634848445544691 |
79 | 131.6 | 131.585641219581 | 0.0143587804185188 |
80 | 131.6 | 131.521104461892 | 0.0788955381077869 |
81 | 132.53 | 132.654725890124 | -0.124725890124409 |
82 | 133.05 | 134.469167274037 | -1.41916727403708 |
83 | 133.49 | 133.530304434787 | -0.040304434786492 |
84 | 133.46 | 133.65103891631 | -0.191038916310134 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
85 | 133.513909495403 | 132.835722424196 | 134.192096566609 |
86 | 133.453636756006 | 132.482573534865 | 134.424699977147 |
87 | 133.437925582859 | 132.233692196843 | 134.642158968876 |
88 | 133.693796236773 | 132.283853444039 | 135.103739029507 |
89 | 133.754018115746 | 132.158096239976 | 135.349939991516 |
90 | 133.820049937469 | 132.050231055023 | 135.589868819915 |
91 | 133.835837320633 | 131.901493266692 | 135.770181374575 |
92 | 133.711066550399 | 131.620754758016 | 135.801378342782 |
93 | 134.74411921043 | 132.485411573215 | 137.002826847646 |
94 | 136.654626408511 | 134.216200692771 | 139.093052124252 |
95 | 136.961092146953 | 134.372640566507 | 139.549543727399 |
96 | 137.108799136045 | 133.618435982867 | 140.599162289224 |