Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 0.188533630779783 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 27.01 | 26.97 | 0.0399999999999991 |
4 | 27.09 | 27.1375413452312 | -0.0475413452311955 |
5 | 27.11 | 27.2085782028026 | -0.0985782028025994 |
6 | 27.16 | 27.2099928963125 | -0.0499928963124781 |
7 | 27.13 | 27.2505675540575 | -0.120567554057491 |
8 | 27.19 | 27.1978365153368 | -0.00783651533679119 |
9 | 27.49 | 27.2563590686477 | 0.233640931352308 |
10 | 27.63 | 27.6004082417343 | 0.0295917582656919 |
11 | 27.72 | 27.7459872833613 | -0.025987283361296 |
12 | 27.77 | 27.8310878064751 | -0.0610878064750864 |
13 | 27.81 | 27.869570700524 | -0.0595707005239667 |
14 | 27.92 | 27.8983396200661 | 0.0216603799339126 |
15 | 28.07 | 28.0124233301391 | 0.0575766698609002 |
16 | 28.14 | 28.1732784687562 | -0.0332784687561833 |
17 | 28.17 | 28.2370043582148 | -0.0670043582147883 |
18 | 28.2 | 28.2543717832825 | -0.0543717832824875 |
19 | 28.21 | 28.2741208735683 | -0.0641208735682639 |
20 | 28.2 | 28.2720319324657 | -0.0720319324656735 |
21 | 28.19 | 28.2484514907058 | -0.0584514907058313 |
22 | 28.24 | 28.2274314189386 | 0.0125685810614264 |
23 | 28.25 | 28.2798010191598 | -0.0298010191598301 |
24 | 28.26 | 28.2841825248167 | -0.0241825248166911 |
25 | 28.33 | 28.2896233056116 | 0.0403766943884172 |
26 | 28.67 | 28.3672356704035 | 0.302764329596492 |
27 | 28.81 | 28.7643169287329 | 0.0456830712670495 |
28 | 28.99 | 28.9129297240241 | 0.0770702759759061 |
29 | 29.16 | 29.107460062979 | 0.0525399370209705 |
30 | 29.25 | 29.2873656080665 | -0.037365608066537 |
31 | 29.25 | 29.3703209343115 | -0.120320934311458 |
32 | 29.38 | 29.3476363917069 | 0.032363608293096 |
33 | 29.48 | 29.4837380202835 | -0.00373802028353509 |
34 | 29.65 | 29.5830332777476 | 0.0669667222524453 |
35 | 29.69 | 29.7656587570352 | -0.0756587570352245 |
36 | 29.73 | 29.7913945368711 | -0.0613945368710915 |
37 | 29.81 | 29.8198196019247 | -0.00981960192474318 |
38 | 30.05 | 29.8979682767211 | 0.152031723278945 |
39 | 30.29 | 30.1666313695045 | 0.123368630495456 |
40 | 30.37 | 30.4298905053362 | -0.0598905053361776 |
41 | 30.5 | 30.4985991309159 | 0.00140086908408321 |
42 | 30.67 | 30.6288632418506 | 0.0411367581494169 |
43 | 30.76 | 30.806618904223 | -0.0466189042230027 |
44 | 30.84 | 30.8878296729469 | -0.0478296729468681 |
45 | 30.86 | 30.9588121710472 | -0.0988121710471823 |
46 | 31.09 | 30.9601827536744 | 0.129817246325576 |
47 | 31.2 | 31.214657670462 | -0.014657670462018 |
48 | 31.19 | 31.321894206631 | -0.131894206631038 |
49 | 31.18 | 31.2870277129761 | -0.107027712976073 |
50 | 31.31 | 31.2568493896546 | 0.0531506103453623 |
51 | 31.39 | 31.3968700672012 | -0.0068700672012092 |
52 | 31.39 | 31.4755748284881 | -0.0855748284880633 |
53 | 31.37 | 31.4594410953699 | -0.0894410953698532 |
54 | 31.36 | 31.4225784409189 | -0.0625784409188554 |
55 | 31.37 | 31.4007803002439 | -0.0307803002438831 |
56 | 31.35 | 31.4049771784824 | -0.0549771784824138 |
57 | 31.34 | 31.3746121314131 | -0.0346121314130983 |
58 | 31.47 | 31.3580865806088 | 0.111913419391243 |
59 | 31.48 | 31.5091860238996 | -0.029186023899566 |
60 | 31.54 | 31.5136834768458 | 0.0263165231542395 |
61 | 31.55 | 31.5786450265055 | -0.0286450265055258 |
62 | 31.55 | 31.5832444756547 | -0.0332444756546586 |
63 | 31.57 | 31.5769767739561 | -0.00697677395611507 |
64 | 31.66 | 31.595661417431 | 0.0643385825689613 |
65 | 31.74 | 31.697791404002 | 0.0422085959980087 |
66 | 31.78 | 31.7857491438556 | -0.00574914385560987 |
67 | 31.8 | 31.8246652368906 | -0.0246652368906375 |
68 | 31.68 | 31.8400150102256 | -0.160015010225603 |
69 | 31.7 | 31.6898467993685 | 0.0101532006314926 |
70 | 31.7 | 31.7117610191476 | -0.0117610191475954 |
71 | 31.75 | 31.709543671506 | 0.0404563284939705 |
72 | 31.73 | 31.767171050005 | -0.0371710500050177 |
73 | 31.82 | 31.7401630569877 | 0.0798369430123245 |
74 | 31.9 | 31.8452150057241 | 0.0547849942758525 |
75 | 31.82 | 31.9355438196072 | -0.115543819607222 |
76 | 31.51 | 31.8337599237825 | -0.323759923782507 |
77 | 31.42 | 31.4627202898508 | -0.0427202898508057 |
78 | 30.97 | 31.3646660784973 | -0.394666078497274 |
79 | 30.99 | 30.8402582497726 | 0.149741750227438 |
80 | 30.92 | 30.8884896056223 | 0.0315103943777437 |
81 | 30.95 | 30.8244303746816 | 0.125569625318398 |
82 | 30.82 | 30.8781044720585 | -0.0581044720585311 |
83 | 30.72 | 30.7371498249768 | -0.0171498249767978 |
84 | 30.73 | 30.6339165062067 | 0.0960834937933193 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
85 | 30.6620314761495 | 30.4717470793418 | 30.8523158729573 |
86 | 30.5940629522991 | 30.2985020818393 | 30.8896238227588 |
87 | 30.5260944284486 | 30.1311029578274 | 30.9210858990698 |
88 | 30.4581259045982 | 29.9633852803853 | 30.952866528811 |
89 | 30.3901573807477 | 29.7933489267826 | 30.9869658347129 |
90 | 30.3221888568973 | 29.6201714563116 | 31.0242062574829 |
91 | 30.2542203330468 | 29.4434881838897 | 31.0649524822039 |
92 | 30.1862518091963 | 29.2631435143531 | 31.1093601040396 |
93 | 30.1182832853459 | 29.07908677739 | 31.1574797933017 |
94 | 30.0503147614954 | 28.8913229476663 | 31.2093065753245 |
95 | 29.982346237645 | 28.699887316836 | 31.2648051584539 |
96 | 29.9143777137945 | 28.5048316905322 | 31.3239237370568 |