Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.656149236821017 |
beta | 0.0249533508009569 |
gamma | 1 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 75.01 | 78.2042601495726 | -3.19426014957263 |
14 | 77.6 | 78.5980898627413 | -0.998089862741281 |
15 | 77.81 | 78.1745098530363 | -0.364509853036324 |
16 | 81.7 | 81.7156847188397 | -0.015684718839708 |
17 | 76.47 | 76.2084007890804 | 0.26159921091957 |
18 | 74.72 | 74.3985896940329 | 0.321410305967063 |
19 | 84.43 | 83.662036093533 | 0.767963906467017 |
20 | 86.72 | 86.6635622639976 | 0.056437736002394 |
21 | 70.99 | 74.4316451426754 | -3.4416451426754 |
22 | 75.43 | 69.9906131340806 | 5.43938686591937 |
23 | 74.14 | 74.8442565786605 | -0.704256578660463 |
24 | 73.3 | 71.6506388535045 | 1.64936114649552 |
25 | 71.97 | 70.332085337001 | 1.63791466299898 |
26 | 69.27 | 74.7271759485818 | -5.45717594858183 |
27 | 74.13 | 71.5980960694977 | 2.53190393050232 |
28 | 76.4 | 77.2095868468738 | -0.809586846873785 |
29 | 72.26 | 71.3136227054706 | 0.946377294529384 |
30 | 72.1 | 70.0218000461289 | 2.07819995387111 |
31 | 87.82 | 80.6683802881446 | 7.15161971185539 |
32 | 91.62 | 87.7952687620079 | 3.82473123799214 |
33 | 82.69 | 77.0761850434953 | 5.61381495650467 |
34 | 85.76 | 82.0219910206035 | 3.73800897939655 |
35 | 86.87 | 84.0102784270219 | 2.85972157297807 |
36 | 93.09 | 84.386307197262 | 8.703692802738 |
37 | 83.73 | 88.2298652647535 | -4.49986526475348 |
38 | 84.49 | 86.5948624528203 | -2.10486245282029 |
39 | 87.37 | 88.9041980806885 | -1.53419808068854 |
40 | 89.13 | 91.1239165395959 | -1.99391653959587 |
41 | 83.2 | 85.460425376625 | -2.26042537662499 |
42 | 83.77 | 82.8069146978529 | 0.963085302147064 |
43 | 93.68 | 94.801329680237 | -1.12132968023697 |
44 | 93.09 | 95.5555386854325 | -2.46553868543252 |
45 | 88.59 | 81.4208487038315 | 7.16915129616849 |
46 | 87.88 | 86.8642275727402 | 1.01577242725982 |
47 | 87.89 | 86.8417876929647 | 1.0482123070353 |
48 | 89.38 | 88.0864558907676 | 1.29354410923239 |
49 | 89.13 | 82.4542756434359 | 6.67572435656407 |
50 | 89.58 | 89.0851088838224 | 0.494891116177598 |
51 | 90.22 | 93.4485182009301 | -3.22851820093011 |
52 | 91.44 | 94.5227179420315 | -3.08271794203149 |
53 | 91.04 | 88.1596269034728 | 2.88037309652725 |
54 | 92.1 | 90.1782803482089 | 1.92171965179107 |
55 | 97.54 | 102.291297203956 | -4.75129720395601 |
56 | 99.12 | 100.34838695397 | -1.22838695397041 |
57 | 100 | 90.5054931338031 | 9.49450686619691 |
58 | 99.68 | 95.5640260895936 | 4.11597391040645 |
59 | 100.08 | 97.8429133262373 | 2.23708667376275 |
60 | 99.9 | 100.227461446854 | -0.327461446854088 |
61 | 99.63 | 95.6312288917486 | 3.99877110825136 |
62 | 99.45 | 98.5853694572352 | 0.864630542764829 |
63 | 99.63 | 102.122212053151 | -2.49221205315126 |
64 | 99.46 | 103.952853843473 | -4.492853843473 |
65 | 96.91 | 98.9150100886088 | -2.00501008860876 |
66 | 97.65 | 97.5185938656499 | 0.131406134350115 |
67 | 102.1 | 106.25316741232 | -4.15316741231977 |
68 | 103.57 | 106.014659676422 | -2.44465967642232 |
69 | 104.59 | 99.1414552091488 | 5.44854479085117 |
70 | 104.79 | 99.7102460923001 | 5.07975390769988 |
71 | 101.31 | 102.00566563288 | -0.695665632879624 |
72 | 104.8 | 101.566256030161 | 3.23374396983908 |
73 | 104.56 | 100.834779401135 | 3.72522059886509 |
74 | 104.15 | 102.567769851407 | 1.5822301485929 |
75 | 102.73 | 105.468977806611 | -2.73897780661088 |
76 | 101.86 | 106.493507717927 | -4.63350771792703 |
77 | 101.9 | 102.260243549656 | -0.360243549656332 |
78 | 102.33 | 102.746000493247 | -0.416000493246813 |
79 | 105.71 | 109.707529468061 | -3.99752946806055 |
80 | 106.1 | 110.220553171448 | -4.12055317144824 |
81 | 102.81 | 104.996295269679 | -2.18629526967933 |
82 | 103.23 | 100.338174902093 | 2.89182509790683 |
83 | 102.35 | 99.0857732365421 | 3.26422676345786 |
84 | 104.11 | 102.534279329298 | 1.57572067070234 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
85 | 100.795244404978 | 94.1005626854204 | 107.489926124536 |
86 | 99.1974296219392 | 91.1296122589483 | 107.26524698493 |
87 | 99.3990660934639 | 90.1060778487541 | 108.692054338174 |
88 | 101.438642538447 | 91.0149841683128 | 111.862300908581 |
89 | 101.660184948228 | 90.1713740064768 | 113.148995889979 |
90 | 102.314210545612 | 89.8080508800594 | 114.820370211165 |
91 | 108.275064873336 | 94.7876469609951 | 121.762482785676 |
92 | 111.392093148163 | 96.9513160260468 | 125.83287027028 |
93 | 109.627425897061 | 94.2552150809245 | 124.999636713197 |
94 | 108.276550321644 | 91.9903311057769 | 124.562769537511 |
95 | 105.333975472211 | 88.1476935370412 | 122.520257407381 |
96 | 106.085867023599 | 88.0107198167515 | 124.161014230446 |