Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 0.0812546799739967 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 1.43 | 1.43 | 0 |
4 | 1.43 | 1.44 | -0.01 |
5 | 1.43 | 1.43918745320026 | -0.00918745320026004 |
6 | 1.43 | 1.4384409296307 | -0.00844092963069687 |
7 | 1.43 | 1.43775506459487 | -0.00775506459487163 |
8 | 1.44 | 1.43712492930304 | 0.00287507069696247 |
9 | 1.44 | 1.44735854225242 | -0.00735854225242183 |
10 | 1.45 | 1.44676062625663 | 0.0032393737433738 |
11 | 1.46 | 1.45702384053346 | 0.00297615946653984 |
12 | 1.46 | 1.46726566741847 | -0.00726566741846546 |
13 | 1.47 | 1.46667529793758 | 0.00332470206241942 |
14 | 1.47 | 1.47694544553967 | -0.00694544553967136 |
15 | 1.47 | 1.47638109558507 | -0.0063810955850685 |
16 | 1.49 | 1.47586260170542 | 0.0141373982945796 |
17 | 1.49 | 1.49701133147951 | -0.00701133147951127 |
18 | 1.49 | 1.49644162798395 | -0.00644162798395209 |
19 | 1.49 | 1.4959182155636 | -0.00591821556360439 |
20 | 1.5 | 1.49543733285197 | 0.00456266714803344 |
21 | 1.52 | 1.50580807091091 | 0.0141919290890919 |
22 | 1.54 | 1.52696123156726 | 0.0130387684327442 |
23 | 1.56 | 1.54802069252351 | 0.0119793074764865 |
24 | 1.56 | 1.56899406731883 | -0.00899406731882557 |
25 | 1.57 | 1.56826325725717 | 0.00173674274283031 |
26 | 1.58 | 1.57840437573294 | 0.0015956242670645 |
27 | 1.59 | 1.58853402767211 | 0.00146597232788537 |
28 | 1.6 | 1.59865314478447 | 0.00134685521553224 |
29 | 1.59 | 1.60876258307398 | -0.018762583073977 |
30 | 1.6 | 1.59723803539082 | 0.00276196460918454 |
31 | 1.61 | 1.60746245794123 | 0.00253754205876566 |
32 | 1.61 | 1.61766864510914 | -0.00766864510913989 |
33 | 1.61 | 1.61704553180496 | -0.00704553180496248 |
34 | 1.62 | 1.6164730493729 | 0.00352695062709629 |
35 | 1.62 | 1.62675963061739 | -0.00675963061739249 |
36 | 1.61 | 1.62621037899483 | -0.0162103789948338 |
37 | 1.62 | 1.61489320983735 | 0.00510679016264848 |
38 | 1.62 | 1.62530816043771 | -0.00530816043771187 |
39 | 1.63 | 1.62487684756009 | 0.00512315243990491 |
40 | 1.64 | 1.63529312767206 | 0.00470687232794265 |
41 | 1.64 | 1.64567558307674 | -0.00567558307674276 |
42 | 1.64 | 1.64521441539018 | -0.00521441539017631 |
43 | 1.64 | 1.6447907197364 | -0.00479071973639589 |
44 | 1.64 | 1.64440145133737 | -0.00440145133737002 |
45 | 1.65 | 1.64404381281753 | 0.00595618718246915 |
46 | 1.65 | 1.65452778090091 | -0.00452778090090766 |
47 | 1.65 | 1.65415987751281 | -0.00415987751281199 |
48 | 1.65 | 1.65382186799678 | -0.00382186799677742 |
49 | 1.65 | 1.6535113233358 | -0.0035113233357964 |
50 | 1.66 | 1.65322601188186 | 0.00677398811813901 |
51 | 1.66 | 1.66377643011855 | -0.00377643011854811 |
52 | 1.67 | 1.66346957749782 | 0.00653042250217872 |
53 | 1.67 | 1.67400020488833 | -0.00400020488833075 |
54 | 1.67 | 1.6736751695203 | -0.003675169520299 |
55 | 1.67 | 1.67337654479708 | -0.00337654479707705 |
56 | 1.67 | 1.67310218473017 | -0.00310218473017265 |
57 | 1.67 | 1.6728501177027 | -0.00285011770270227 |
58 | 1.69 | 1.67261853230088 | 0.0173814676991191 |
59 | 1.69 | 1.69403085789625 | -0.00403085789625135 |
60 | 1.69 | 1.69370333182787 | -0.00370333182787075 |
61 | 1.7 | 1.69340241878536 | 0.00659758121464038 |
62 | 1.71 | 1.70393850313556 | 0.00606149686444235 |
63 | 1.72 | 1.71443102812344 | 0.0055689718765588 |
64 | 1.71 | 1.72488353315106 | -0.0148835331510553 |
65 | 1.71 | 1.71367417642798 | -0.00367417642798396 |
66 | 1.71 | 1.71337563239816 | -0.00337563239815997 |
67 | 1.72 | 1.71310134646794 | 0.00689865353206232 |
68 | 1.72 | 1.72366189435294 | -0.00366189435293696 |
69 | 1.72 | 1.72336434829919 | -0.00336434829919052 |
70 | 1.73 | 1.72309097925482 | 0.0069090207451814 |
71 | 1.73 | 1.7336523695244 | -0.00365236952440195 |
72 | 1.73 | 1.73335559740755 | -0.00335559740755009 |
73 | 1.74 | 1.73308293941408 | 0.00691706058592212 |
74 | 1.74 | 1.74364498295835 | -0.00364498295834781 |
75 | 1.75 | 1.74334881103456 | 0.00665118896544348 |
76 | 1.76 | 1.75388925126539 | 0.00611074873460971 |
77 | 1.76 | 1.76438577819822 | -0.00438577819822239 |
78 | 1.77 | 1.76402941319429 | 0.00597058680571094 |
79 | 1.78 | 1.77451455131444 | 0.005485448685556 |
80 | 1.79 | 1.7849602696919 | 0.00503973030809735 |
81 | 1.8 | 1.79536977136524 | 0.0046302286347577 |
82 | 1.8 | 1.80574599911117 | -0.00574599911116591 |
83 | 1.8 | 1.80527910979226 | -0.00527910979225732 |
84 | 1.81 | 1.80485015741554 | 0.00514984258446005 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
85 | 1.81526860622666 | 1.80163626328387 | 1.82890094916944 |
86 | 1.82053721245331 | 1.80045962807937 | 1.84061479682725 |
87 | 1.82580581867997 | 1.80022731555352 | 1.85138432180642 |
88 | 1.83107442490663 | 1.80038654424597 | 1.86176230556729 |
89 | 1.83634303113328 | 1.80073373532879 | 1.87195232693778 |
90 | 1.84161163735994 | 1.80116980791839 | 1.88205346680149 |
91 | 1.8468802435866 | 1.80163912463774 | 1.89212136253545 |
92 | 1.85214884981325 | 1.8021075894891 | 1.90219011013741 |
93 | 1.85741745603991 | 1.80255305771572 | 1.9122818543641 |
94 | 1.86268606226657 | 1.80296055505798 | 1.92241156947515 |
95 | 1.86795466849322 | 1.80331966466392 | 1.93258967232252 |
96 | 1.87322327471988 | 1.8036229967665 | 1.94282355267326 |