| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.160527970000357 |
| beta | 0.0201802328815913 |
| gamma | 0.982450032543123 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 219.662 | 225.005643231255 | -5.34364323125536 |
| 14 | 212.65 | 216.863515542236 | -4.21351554223588 |
| 15 | 209.307 | 212.802140625231 | -3.49514062523127 |
| 16 | 210.541 | 213.251218921266 | -2.71021892126586 |
| 17 | 210.609 | 212.75256432085 | -2.14356432084949 |
| 18 | 208.91 | 213.8228814656 | -4.91288146560032 |
| 19 | 207.541 | 205.05975003396 | 2.48124996603994 |
| 20 | 207.699 | 212.358846946499 | -4.65984694649856 |
| 21 | 205.005 | 205.327969596647 | -0.3229695966468 |
| 22 | 205.747 | 203.84257538843 | 1.90442461157014 |
| 23 | 203.644 | 206.569098966719 | -2.92509896671945 |
| 24 | 229.937 | 301.771689649906 | -71.8346896499065 |
| 25 | 214.446 | 196.08561608505 | 18.3603839149498 |
| 26 | 210.194 | 193.016934706499 | 17.1770652935008 |
| 27 | 206.535 | 193.028052921745 | 13.5069470782553 |
| 28 | 216.524 | 196.632669491174 | 19.8913305088261 |
| 29 | 198.243 | 200.190327207859 | -1.94732720785939 |
| 30 | 208.274 | 199.022700685423 | 9.2512993145773 |
| 31 | 207.493 | 198.743541637934 | 8.74945836206638 |
| 32 | 215.525 | 201.17641818773 | 14.3485818122705 |
| 33 | 207.562 | 200.970499970774 | 6.59150002922573 |
| 34 | 213.355 | 202.594729320463 | 10.7602706795371 |
| 35 | 209.048 | 202.971887701034 | 6.07611229896551 |
| 36 | 220.497 | 240.769266214798 | -20.2722662147977 |
| 37 | 214.563 | 217.370472469245 | -2.80747246924489 |
| 38 | 211.571 | 209.944495543567 | 1.6265044564332 |
| 39 | 216.385 | 204.535802090685 | 11.8491979093148 |
| 40 | 211.496 | 213.114857387193 | -1.61885738719286 |
| 41 | 209.683 | 195.612755341666 | 14.0702446583338 |
| 42 | 206.304 | 206.384466359582 | -0.0804663595818056 |
| 43 | 213.925 | 204.328487653806 | 9.59651234619398 |
| 44 | 204.829 | 211.516746338761 | -6.68774633876149 |
| 45 | 205.729 | 201.797196071392 | 3.93180392860816 |
| 46 | 200.296 | 206.34108011961 | -6.0450801196105 |
| 47 | 207.96 | 200.33856112708 | 7.62143887292041 |
| 48 | 207.729 | 215.919065418292 | -8.19006541829233 |
| 49 | 208.327 | 209.078666938687 | -0.751666938686526 |
| 50 | 207.794 | 205.791088917467 | 2.00291108253319 |
| 51 | 213.7 | 208.784071873952 | 4.91592812604753 |
| 52 | 213.136 | 205.317465634257 | 7.81853436574329 |
| 53 | 210.354 | 202.316991535409 | 8.03700846459097 |
| 54 | 202.205 | 200.588569801513 | 1.61643019848697 |
| 55 | 220.425 | 206.630411860518 | 13.7945881394819 |
| 56 | 210.038 | 201.287219305665 | 8.75078069433508 |
| 57 | 205.201 | 202.924869106222 | 2.27613089377766 |
| 58 | 197.441 | 199.124933143248 | -1.68393314324803 |
| 59 | 200.021 | 205.153346115387 | -5.13234611538689 |
| 60 | 203.165 | 205.679974126533 | -2.51497412653299 |
| 61 | 201.699 | 205.995886649966 | -4.2968866499661 |
| 62 | 201.003 | 204.526596738722 | -3.52359673872189 |
| 63 | 232.308 | 209.013571966136 | 23.2944280338636 |
| 64 | 211.412 | 211.016779474117 | 0.395220525882934 |
| 65 | 209.661 | 207.126658005441 | 2.53434199455941 |
| 66 | 213.587 | 199.426009599477 | 14.160990400523 |
| 67 | 193.611 | 217.529062876608 | -23.9180628766077 |
| 68 | 192.543 | 202.287369876735 | -9.74436987673525 |
| 69 | 196.04 | 195.784233504652 | 0.2557664953477 |
| 70 | 191.407 | 188.672905821665 | 2.73409417833514 |
| 71 | 189.726 | 192.361583006919 | -2.63558300691921 |
| 72 | 191.272 | 195.265620685059 | -3.99362068505883 |
| 73 | 187.924 | 193.853581433763 | -5.92958143376319 |
| 74 | 198.213 | 192.709822458319 | 5.50317754168077 |
| 75 | 199.352 | 219.412894033961 | -20.0608940339609 |
| 76 | 199.289 | 196.804403179032 | 2.48459682096802 |
| 77 | 195.475 | 194.997557854138 | 0.477442145862312 |
| 78 | 198.045 | 196.161509011413 | 1.88349098858717 |
| 79 | 197.615 | 181.598215112254 | 16.0167848877461 |
| 80 | 189.015 | 184.318924605971 | 4.69607539402875 |
| 81 | 189.668 | 188.237790345698 | 1.4302096543023 |
| 82 | 189.12 | 183.542991300373 | 5.57700869962733 |
| 83 | 194.168 | 183.300354845204 | 10.8676451547959 |
| 84 | 192.304 | 187.241045471323 | 5.06295452867678 |
| 85 | 185.913 | 185.790841982225 | 0.122158017774552 |
| 86 | 197.599 | 195.035260282355 | 2.56373971764535 |
| 87 | 186.085 | 199.983466563189 | -13.8984665631888 |
| 88 | 190.566 | 197.087192637914 | -6.5211926379142 |
| 89 | 187.054 | 192.330955151892 | -5.2769551518918 |
| 90 | 193.222 | 193.7513571032 | -0.529357103200113 |
| 91 | 189.856 | 190.406106401272 | -0.550106401271677 |
| 92 | 190.608 | 181.437407302112 | 9.1705926978876 |
| 93 | 190.588 | 183.375186789012 | 7.21281321098769 |
| 94 | 186.773 | 183.080125002369 | 3.69287499763104 |
| 95 | 183.51 | 186.750931288447 | -3.2409312884472 |
| 96 | 180.106 | 183.698784525325 | -3.5927845253255 |
| 97 | 180.15 | 177.02695380099 | 3.12304619900968 |
| 98 | 178.412 | 188.206336228083 | -9.79433622808344 |
| 99 | 182.353 | 177.880305831031 | 4.47269416896896 |
| 100 | 203.805 | 183.737334454256 | 20.0676655457439 |
| 101 | 186.054 | 184.378430134084 | 1.67556986591558 |
| 102 | 184.29 | 190.847307564702 | -6.55730756470234 |
| 103 | 187.483 | 186.650755438595 | 0.832244561405247 |
| 104 | 187.111 | 185.955956871035 | 1.15504312896513 |
| 105 | 189.561 | 185.031697341132 | 4.52930265886783 |
| 106 | 184.439 | 181.539949515208 | 2.89905048479162 |
| 107 | 182.985 | 179.459688032367 | 3.52531196763306 |
| 108 | 183.828 | 177.308708633706 | 6.51929136629442 |
| 109 | 184.036 | 177.895454261158 | 6.14054573884164 |
| 110 | 183.214 | 178.948169220101 | 4.26583077989901 |
| 111 | 183.464 | 182.814696749717 | 0.649303250282912 |
| 112 | 173.718 | 200.862526821542 | -27.1445268215415 |
| 113 | 180.21 | 179.349979011083 | 0.860020988917455 |
| 114 | 171.252 | 178.871837420648 | -7.61983742064777 |
| 115 | 172.705 | 180.466900289916 | -7.7619002899161 |
| 116 | 174.006 | 178.626305705945 | -4.62030570594484 |
| 117 | 172.043 | 179.382672657325 | -7.33967265732522 |
| 118 | 169.445 | 172.847003493486 | -3.40200349348621 |
| 119 | 169.449 | 170.254278016436 | -0.805278016435921 |
| 120 | 177.073 | 169.707212347519 | 7.36578765248106 |
| 121 | 170.799 | 169.9912544592 | 0.807745540799601 |
| 122 | 171.648 | 168.5681235693 | 3.0798764306999 |
| 123 | 172.22 | 169.06900008161 | 3.15099991838991 |
| 124 | 165.795 | 164.350063007329 | 1.44493699267133 |
| 125 | 167.466 | 170.119461580437 | -2.65346158043667 |
| 126 | 165.528 | 162.398794428618 | 3.12920557138162 |
| 127 | 162.851 | 165.375573201117 | -2.52457320111745 |
| 128 | 165.864 | 166.826728827109 | -0.962728827109117 |
| 129 | 162.094 | 165.899390589023 | -3.80539058902266 |
| 130 | 162.385 | 163.244264750013 | -0.859264750013267 |
| 131 | 164.293 | 163.196405885306 | 1.09659411469417 |
| 132 | 165.983 | 169.432635978091 | -3.44963597809127 |
| 133 | 159.68 | 162.825708680868 | -3.1457086808679 |
| 134 | 161.739 | 162.569585593032 | -0.830585593031572 |
| 135 | 159.302 | 162.426237779147 | -3.12423777914714 |
| 136 | 167.795 | 155.601039829072 | 12.1939601709275 |
| 137 | 164.242 | 159.559047629885 | 4.68295237011461 |
| 138 | 159.743 | 157.869017100644 | 1.87398289935618 |
| 139 | 160.887 | 156.05177743938 | 4.83522256062008 |
| 140 | 163.844 | 159.861140773651 | 3.98285922634946 |
| 141 | 161.172 | 157.497935982865 | 3.67406401713524 |
| 142 | 159.33 | 158.516430757604 | 0.813569242395801 |
| 143 | 155.57 | 160.37076052971 | -4.80076052971037 |
| 144 | 156.749 | 161.875066482293 | -5.12606648229277 |
| 145 | 155.012 | 155.447071631257 | -0.435071631257244 |
| 146 | 163.419 | 157.518118916079 | 5.90088108392149 |
| 147 | 153.63 | 156.662293324453 | -3.03229332445255 |
| 148 | 154.535 | 162.308225325139 | -7.77322532513901 |
| 149 | 151.543 | 157.005013826379 | -5.46201382637884 |
| 150 | 152.955 | 151.554552064422 | 1.400447935578 |
| 151 | 150.166 | 152.021111587712 | -1.85511158771214 |
| 152 | 151.416 | 153.835171162053 | -2.41917116205261 |
| 153 | 150.332 | 150.287805692251 | 0.0441943077489668 |
| 154 | 152.196 | 148.384211346343 | 3.81178865365655 |
| 155 | 153.422 | 146.163207255109 | 7.25879274489114 |
| 156 | 147.435 | 149.154112072822 | -1.71911207282201 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 157 | 147.187988127158 | 128.269132247869 | 166.106844006447 |
| 158 | 154.112312783035 | 134.906755584044 | 173.317869982026 |
| 159 | 145.390762001922 | 125.974334242513 | 164.807189761331 |
| 160 | 147.39507463543 | 127.679108123808 | 167.111041147052 |
| 161 | 145.298419961124 | 125.324171739629 | 165.272668182619 |
| 162 | 146.333025276046 | 126.043909404608 | 166.622141147484 |
| 163 | 143.982663362113 | 123.438995186763 | 164.526331537463 |
| 164 | 145.55346317504 | 124.655945951097 | 166.450980398983 |
| 165 | 144.47600565042 | 123.286949905837 | 165.665061395004 |
| 166 | 145.619541497194 | 124.059829809241 | 167.179253185146 |
| 167 | 145.575081635763 | 123.674951740091 | 167.475211531435 |
| 168 | 140.239845526496 | 106.252335267171 | 174.227355785821 |
