Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.630518605848567 |
beta | 0.0171001057019711 |
gamma | 1 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 38.97 | 38.926124465812 | 0.043875534188011 |
14 | 38.95 | 38.9293099465314 | 0.0206900534686127 |
15 | 38.95 | 38.9380996290793 | 0.011900370920678 |
16 | 38.92 | 38.9285588955981 | -0.00855889559805689 |
17 | 38.96 | 38.990192599127 | -0.0301925991270195 |
18 | 38.97 | 39.0011936487655 | -0.0311936487654521 |
19 | 38.97 | 38.8878938567608 | 0.082106143239244 |
20 | 38.95 | 38.9331669547375 | 0.0168330452625369 |
21 | 38.93 | 38.9174656427751 | 0.0125343572248937 |
22 | 38.76 | 39.1762724059801 | -0.41627240598006 |
23 | 38.81 | 38.8723036380606 | -0.0623036380606408 |
24 | 38.81 | 38.7391803437733 | 0.0708196562267389 |
25 | 38.81 | 38.7915518631967 | 0.0184481368033289 |
26 | 38.78 | 38.7667399412009 | 0.0132600587991476 |
27 | 38.77 | 38.7641187881626 | 0.00588121183736945 |
28 | 38.61 | 38.7396801848465 | -0.129680184846549 |
29 | 38.69 | 38.7121021294304 | -0.0221021294304364 |
30 | 38.69 | 38.7230724508744 | -0.0330724508744282 |
31 | 38.68 | 38.6456678965162 | 0.0343321034837558 |
32 | 38.74 | 38.6314039739534 | 0.108596026046584 |
33 | 38.73 | 38.6676646215747 | 0.0623353784252672 |
34 | 38.62 | 38.7956646640305 | -0.175664664030535 |
35 | 38.57 | 38.7730115744505 | -0.203011574450493 |
36 | 38.57 | 38.5976619313212 | -0.0276619313211555 |
37 | 38.57 | 38.5648328960702 | 0.00516710392984265 |
38 | 38.57 | 38.5258311628366 | 0.0441688371634186 |
39 | 38.56 | 38.5364065047995 | 0.0235934952004797 |
40 | 38.55 | 38.4696736663617 | 0.0803263336383324 |
41 | 38.42 | 38.613146249192 | -0.193146249191969 |
42 | 38.47 | 38.5092620855925 | -0.0392620855924903 |
43 | 38.47 | 38.4498381884082 | 0.0201618115918478 |
44 | 38.48 | 38.450904595948 | 0.0290954040519651 |
45 | 38.45 | 38.4159148282715 | 0.0340851717285489 |
46 | 38.43 | 38.4338300650281 | -0.00383006502806893 |
47 | 38.43 | 38.5069344848408 | -0.0769344848407911 |
48 | 38.48 | 38.4747433502307 | 0.00525664976929363 |
49 | 38.48 | 38.4740308636855 | 0.00596913631446938 |
50 | 38.48 | 38.4491849421603 | 0.0308150578397246 |
51 | 38.51 | 38.4428339927874 | 0.0671660072126201 |
52 | 38.48 | 38.4241016791206 | 0.0558983208794217 |
53 | 38.55 | 38.4504310499988 | 0.0995689500012205 |
54 | 38.55 | 38.5904247729672 | -0.0404247729671923 |
55 | 38.55 | 38.5546694400758 | -0.00466944007578007 |
56 | 38.49 | 38.5455579846309 | -0.0555579846308802 |
57 | 38.37 | 38.4603014863425 | -0.0903014863425327 |
58 | 38.14 | 38.3857036971746 | -0.245703697174648 |
59 | 38.08 | 38.2766077538154 | -0.196607753815449 |
60 | 38.04 | 38.1953543672242 | -0.155354367224206 |
61 | 38.04 | 38.0879310748953 | -0.0479310748953381 |
62 | 38.03 | 38.0319932027169 | -0.00199320271686076 |
63 | 37.98 | 38.0117463272137 | -0.0317463272136891 |
64 | 38.03 | 37.9187775726697 | 0.111222427330326 |
65 | 38.05 | 37.9890146346393 | 0.0609853653607288 |
66 | 38.05 | 38.0454289356732 | 0.00457106432675403 |
67 | 38.05 | 38.0442137098073 | 0.00578629019268817 |
68 | 38.05 | 38.0159636136288 | 0.0340363863711843 |
69 | 38.02 | 37.9683981536366 | 0.0516018463633898 |
70 | 38.06 | 37.9214220207916 | 0.138577979208414 |
71 | 38.01 | 38.0724733521928 | -0.0624733521927539 |
72 | 38 | 38.0921932789885 | -0.0921932789884963 |
73 | 38 | 38.0661228531959 | -0.0661228531959068 |
74 | 38 | 38.0173294902387 | -0.0173294902386516 |
75 | 37.99 | 37.977895794193 | 0.0121042058069989 |
76 | 37.96 | 37.9673489249363 | -0.00734892493632344 |
77 | 37.96 | 37.9449334684888 | 0.0150665315111596 |
78 | 38.02 | 37.951726546955 | 0.0682734530450375 |
79 | 38.02 | 37.9919881918916 | 0.0280118081084453 |
80 | 38.02 | 37.9892915434212 | 0.0307084565787648 |
81 | 38 | 37.9471839511174 | 0.0528160488825549 |
82 | 37.93 | 37.9341886285206 | -0.00418862852055923 |
83 | 38 | 37.9204781011225 | 0.0795218988774806 |
84 | 38 | 38.0198185691035 | -0.0198185691034709 |
85 | 38 | 38.0508654745878 | -0.0508654745877664 |
86 | 38 | 38.0317361093852 | -0.0317361093851929 |
87 | 38 | 37.9959543406368 | 0.0040456593631788 |
88 | 38.01 | 37.9749123169877 | 0.0350876830122644 |
89 | 37.98 | 37.9897670532042 | -0.00976705320420024 |
90 | 38 | 38.0025243355973 | -0.00252433559729326 |
91 | 38 | 37.9844706652914 | 0.0155293347085887 |
92 | 38 | 37.9759652977689 | 0.0240347022311482 |
93 | 37.95 | 37.9388115184565 | 0.0111884815435133 |
94 | 37.87 | 37.8790516419916 | -0.00905164199157582 |
95 | 37.75 | 37.893696513329 | -0.143696513329033 |
96 | 37.75 | 37.8136745751137 | -0.0636745751136942 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
97 | 37.8032107567834 | 37.6358828439836 | 37.9705386695831 |
98 | 37.8213819503343 | 37.6226018560876 | 38.0201620445811 |
99 | 37.8173342496017 | 37.5905769629837 | 38.0440915362198 |
100 | 37.8036703553597 | 37.5512398429666 | 38.0561008677527 |
101 | 37.7779098937518 | 37.5014556928164 | 38.0543640946871 |
102 | 37.7976880716667 | 37.4984512731174 | 38.0969248702159 |
103 | 37.7861102917717 | 37.4650575197097 | 38.1071630638338 |
104 | 37.7690022831298 | 37.4269056631067 | 38.1110989031529 |
105 | 37.7097349150537 | 37.3472230997406 | 38.0722467303668 |
106 | 37.6331086879726 | 37.250701119313 | 38.0155162566322 |
107 | 37.6014761516656 | 37.1996070136381 | 38.0033452896931 |
108 | 37.6409376208766 | 37.2199731419448 | 38.0619020998083 |